Tropical Depression #4

Guess I will just start another thread on this one, this could threaten the ports of Tampa, Mobile or New Orleans with Tampa the most likely. Praying that those at sea will be alright. Looking to be a very active season. :eek:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/050307.shtml

Vicocala,

Thanks for the posting. It looks as though we are neighbors, as we are right down the road in Gainesville. Yes, it is a bit too active for my taste.

I always thought the definition of "tropical depression" was when you're lying out on the beach at Half Moon Cay with an umbrella drink and it strikes you that you have to go home tomorrow!

Seriously, I do hope these storms behave themselves and that all of you folks in the Southeast are spared from a repeat of last year.

this one concerns me... and i'm keeping my fingers crossed that it either refuses to intensify (which i seriously doubt) or that it will veer hard right and head out into the atlantic. last thing i want to do is have to put-up my newly-fabricated hurricane shutters this thursday or friday and have to batten-down for the weekend! :eek:

Go to http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/ and then click below the map -- there you will see all the official projections.

Most likely N.O. or Mobile will be affected, but that will be mid-week rather than weekend!! I think Tampa is out of the mix!!

Another good website to bookmark for this hurricane season is http://www.stormcarib.com, but this site is concerned with all of the Caribbean islands.

The season has really started early this years for all these storms. Usually the first major storm doesn't happen until the end of July.

For once, and I hate to say this, but up north here we could use some of that rain.

CruizinK,

That is only showing Cindy, Dennis is the one that could affect Florida or possibly those other areas.

I figure PA will get some residuals before the season is over.

CruizinK,

 

That is only showing Cindy, Dennis is the one that could affect Florida or possibly those other areas.

 

I figure PA will get some residuals before the season is over.

Scroll down. Dennis is there. Both of them are on a course to affect areas around the North Gulf.

Grumpy

It is really to early to tell yet just where Dennis would go which is why I mention such a large area. Believe me, I sure don't want to see Florida hit again. Between price increases and property value reevaluations, property insurance is getting unreal down here. My insurance went up 50% last year and we are inland in the middle of the state.

I hear you about the insurance Vicocala, as ours did the same thing. We sure don't need any more storms in Florida, or anywhere for that matter.

Go to www.boatus.com/hurricanes/ and then click below the map -- there you will see all the official projections.

 

Most likely N.O. or Mobile will be affected, but that will be mid-week rather than weekend!! I think Tampa is out of the mix!!

 

Another good website to bookmark for this hurricane season is www.stormcarib.com, but this site is concerned with all of the Caribbean islands.

Don't believe the projections! Last year the projections for Charlie by the Natl. Weather service were wrong..Like Tarkus, we live in Cape Coral..Just a few hours before Charlie hit last year, our local Meteoroligists broke with the Natl weather service & said we were going to get it..They took a big chance by breaking with the pro's & it could have been " Political Suicide" for them..But they did it anyway & we prepared for the worst..They were right! The eye hit about 20 miles north of us..Fortunately we only lost a few trees & branches & our electric was out for 8 days...The rest of the Cape seemed to get theirs back before we did, but further North in Punta Gorda there was devastation..All around us in the Beach & Sanibel people lost so much..We had friends who live in Burnt Store who lost the roof off of their beautiful condo..The entire building was gone & still has not been repaired..Fortunately not too many lives were lost..We were so lucky & hope that our luck holds out..And Murphy's Law says that chances of us getting hit this year are low because we just bought a generator! ;)

Insurance has gone through the roof :( We to pay "Federal Flood Insurance", a seperate "Florida State Wind Policy" (they say we are in the Wind Zone) as well as our Homeowners insurance..Our friends who live in the southwest section, just a few miles down the road, are not in the wind Zone..Their area was hit by the wind as much as our's was..Go figure:confused: .. But I guess that's the price we pay if we want to live in Florida..Think I would rather take a chance on getting hit by a Hurricane rather than an Earthquake..

Keep Safe everyone & happy cruising..:)

movie showing both tropical storms and their positions:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Dennis is expected to reach hurricane strength within the next 36 hours, advisiories are being posted for the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT4+shtml/052046.shtml?

This hurricane threat stuff is going to get on everyone's nerves a lot quicker this year. All the uneducated got lessons last year, so everyone is going to be paying closer attention. We are in Polk County, where 3 of the storms crossed paths. 2 of them crossed over us here in Lakeland. Property insurance increases here too. For some reason, the insurance companies finally realized that hurricanes don't put on brakes at the coastline (duh??).

With those projections, be sure to look at the cone, and not the little black line in the middle. Cape Coral, Ft Myers, Punta Gorda, etc. were within the Cone of Probability when Charley hit last year, so I can't say that the Natl Hurricane Center was wrong. The black line was pointing at St Petersburg when Charley veered towards Port Charlotte, but it was still in the cone. They keep on warning everyone to look at the cone, and not the line. There were even discussions about eliminating the black line in the middle of the projections for this very reason. I don't like being in the "cone."

Everyone keep your fingers crossed. I don't want to turn my cruising money into insurance deductibles of 2%.

Ken

Ken, I hear ya buddy.

Dennis is expected to be at hurricane strength sometime today and an Air Force hurricane hunter plane will check it out this afternoon. Currently the "Cone" stretches from about the are Cindy came in to almost all of Florida with the current midpoint being the Pensicola area.

A map with motion is included in the link below:

Http:www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Dennis Was

Located Near Latitude 15.7 North... Longitude 72.0 West Or About

About 350 Miles... 565 Km...east-southeast Of Kingston Jamaica.

Dennis Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 14 Mph ...25

Km/hr...and This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The

Next 24 Hours. On This Track...dennis Will Be Near Jamaica Early

Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 70 Mph...110 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24

Hours...and Dennis Could Become A Hurricane Later Today Or Tonight.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is En Route To

Investigate Dennis This Afternoon.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles

...140 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 991 Mb...29.26 Inches.

Dennis Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8

Inches Over Southern Hispaniola...jamaica...eastern Cuba...and The

Cayman Islands. Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Are Possible

Over The Mountainous Terrain Of Jamaica. These Rains Could Produce

Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

After getting hit by Frances and Jeanne last September, we're keeping an eye on Dennis too.

We can expect winds and rain if it remains on its present course, since we are on the "bad" side of the storm.

The NOAA site is the best one -- but as someone else noted, you look at the whole cone, not just the black line in the center.

Good luck Oceanwench and all of us in the Gulf area.

Here is the latest release on Dennis:

Latest call of 55 mph but deepening convection and pressure fall suggest that Dennis will transform into a hurricane overnight. The good news for us Floridians is that the latest models are moving the track westward 3-5 days out.

That probably would be bad news for those who have just come thru Cindy as it could follow a similar landfall scenerio. As always, looking that far out, one must take tracks with a grain of salt.

Jamaica is next on the potential hit list. CC has updated its news section on the situation as well.

Dennis just made hurricane status with 81 mph winds. I think most people in the state of Florida are feeling the stresses already of another active season. Stay tuned everyone.

Not fun. Living in FL while hurricanes are pointing at you is kind of like being tied to a railroad track with a train coming. Plenty of warning, and plenty of time to get stressed out while worrying about what might happen to you and your property.

I just checked the NOAA NHC site on Dennis. At the moment, I'm right on the E edge of the "cone." I still don't trust these hurricanes. Over the years I've seen them stop, start, circle around, back track, you name it. Enough to drive someone crazy. However, I do trust the NHC and their predictions these days. Things are much better in that regard. With the exception of Charley, the other storms that hit FL last year were predicted quite accurately and a couple almost followed the black line in the middle of the cone. Charley stayed in the "cone", but decided to go towards the E side of the possible path and caught everyone off guard. I've seen the devestation of Charley and it was awful. I've also seen a lot of damage from Jeanne and Frances, not pretty either. I was fortunate enough to live in an area where the storms had died down to a degree before they crossed us. We had wind from Jeanne in the area of 75-80 sustained with 90+ gusts, yet the only damage I had was a blown over flower bush.

It's beginning to look like Pensacola will get it again. That's extra bad since those people have barely got back on their feet (I guess that goes for the other effected areas of FL too). I imagine there are still many homes in disrepair from Ivan, now they are threatened again.

Last year, the number of completely uninformed people posting on these boards was alarming. There's a lot of naive people out there. I've been tracking and paying close attention to hurricanes since I was about 10 yrs old (42 yrs ago) and I've learned a lot. However, it seems that many people don't even have a basic knowledge of what these things are, what they do, and especially how huge they are. Many seem to think of them as a small dot on the map, when the hurricane force winds may extend 50-75 miles or more from the center. I guess people live and learn.

Hope and pray for the best for everyone, wherever the hurricane goes.

Ken

According to the NHC, winds could reach upward of 135 knots. :eek:

The best news is they are expecting a little shear to develop a little before landfall to knock it down a little. Still, that will be a tough storm and will be a rough ride into port most likely for Tampa and Mobile.

Winds continue to be about 85 MPH with Jamaica expected to be hit today. The storm could be a strong Cat 2 by the time it reaches Jamaica, which, if memory serves me correctly would be around 125 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070541.shtml

At 5 Am Edt...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Dennis Was Located

Near Latitude 17.0 North...longitude 74.6 West Or About 160

Miles...260 Km...east-southeast Of Kingston Jamaica And About 225

Miles... 360 Km...south Of Guantanamo Cuba.

Dennis Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/hr.

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24

Hours. On This Track...dennis Is Expected To Be Over Or Very Near

Jamaica Later Today.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 90 Mph...150

Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Dennis Is A Category One Hurricane On

The Saffir-simpson Scale. Additional Strengthening Is Forecast

...and Dennis Could Become A Strong Category 2 Hurricane By The

Time It Reaches Jamaica Later Today.

The NHC is now saying Dennis could further strengthen to a Cat 3.

My older daughter, who lives in Fort Lauderdale and should know better, is planning a birthday trip to the Keys this weekend. I just called her and told her Dennis is coming, and there is a hurricane watch posted for the Keys.

Talk about clueless! :p

She insists the hurricane will be west of the Keys! I explained that most, if not all of Fla. is going to get wind and rain from this storm.

And the Keys are within the cone of probability ...