Northern Lights 7/11/15 ?

We will be sailing out of Seattle at 4:00 pm on the 11th of July on the Crown north towards Juneau.

The Aurora Forecast shows a 5 for July 11th and a 4 for July 12th and it shows visibility on the horizon as far south as Seattle on the 11th and Prince Rupert on the 12th.

We are obviously hoping to see them (even if we have to stay up and outside all night).

My questions are - 1) what are the odds of actually seeing it from a ship out at sea. 2) where would be the "darkest" part of the ship?

Thanks so much.

hit and miss we saw them approaching Greenland on SB if we had not been at the show, which they stopped so all could go on deck to watch we would have missed them . early sept 2013

Anything is possible but the NL's are not likely to be seen in July, there is just to much light at that time of the year.

Pretty close to zero chance of seeing them. The forecast would have to be extremely active and even then, it's not going to be dark enough.

Any possibility of the first week of September?

There was a BRILLIANT display across the northern us and Canada on June 22 this year. We had a spectacular show in Minnesota with lights covering half the sky and wonderful corona formations overhead. The lights were visible in Washington state and BC that night as well...I saw many images posted on the Facebook aurora hunters page. The Kp level peaked at 8.66, but we can usually see the lights when the level is 4.66-5 or higher, and I would imagine this is the case for northern Washington state and the Vancouver BC area

The trick is to be away from city lights and far enough south that there are at least a few hours of complete darkness. Last week's show was bright enough that we could see it before civil twilight, but that is unusual.

Remember that long term aurora forecasts are very unreliable. I signed up for a notification service that sends me a phone alert when conditions are favorable for aurora but usually there is only a 30-60 minute advance warning. There are many other factors that can affect the forecast.

The last year or so has been spectacular in northern MN...we also had a MAJOR display on St Patrick's Day, and many minor displays as well

Good luck!

Any possibility of the first week of September?

Sure it's possible, but, it sure helps to invest at least a week, mainland Alaska, including Fairbanks. Not near as likely from a cruises ship. If of interest, then I suggest you -DAILY check the prediction stats.

Even if the daily forecast is favorable, the hourly forecast can vary a lot

Here is a site I use:

http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

There is talk of a "mini event" this evening...due to what is called a coronal hole.

Last week's lights were seen as far south as virginia, Iowa, and Utah so you don't necessarily need to be in Alaska to see the aurora. I would recommend signing up for one of the notification services if you live in the northern tier of states. The attached photos were

Even if the daily forecast is favorable, the hourly forecast can vary a lot

 

Here is a site I use:

 

http://www.softservenews.com/Aurora.htm

 

There is talk of a "mini event" this evening...due to what is called a coronal hole.

 

Last week's lights were seen as far south as virginia, Iowa, and Utah so you don't necessarily need to be in Alaska to see the aurora. I would recommend signing up for one of the notification services if you live in the northern tier of states. The attached photos were [ATTACH]354356[/ATTACH]taken from our home just north of Duluth MN[ATTACH]354355[/ATTACH]

Didn't know the East Coast- was Duluth. :) :)

I've gotten away from aurora tracking, but used to really enjoy seeing them. Thanks for the site link, I've pretty much used the Fairbanks Geophysical, will add this one. Thank you for posting the link.

Lol east cost in winter..but duluth is the east coast of Minnesota :-)

A simple WEB search on "Sunset Juneau July 11" -

http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/juneau?month=7

would have told you that the sun sets at 9:56 PM and the sunrises at 4:08 AM. This is not when the light disappears from the sky but when the sun drops below the horizon and then rises above the horizon.

Wikipedia gves a good description - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight - between sunset and the different twilghts when the sky is not dark even though the sun is below the horizon. If you go through all the options and maths, you will come up with the fact that the sky will not be dark for at least 1 hour after sunset and at at least 1 hour before sunrise.

So, if you happen to be up between 11:00 PK and 3 AM and if the sky is clear and if there is a lot of activity and if the ship's lights are darkened - it would not be impossible to see aurora. Like - no. Probable - no. Possible - yes.

Basically, if you want to see aurora, fly to Fairbanks during a period where there is no moon, head north away from the lights of Fairbanks and stay for a few weeks. That is what I did and I saw wonderful aurora.

DON

Pretty close to zero chance of seeing them. The forecast would have to be extremely active and even then, it's not going to be dark enough.

So are you saying that the 5 hours between sunset and sunrise won't be dark enough to see them - even though the forecast shows above average activity?

Yes, I live just north of Anchorage and it is not dark enough during that five hour period to see the northern lights in our area.

If you want to learn about the lights, there are several excellent exhibits on the aurora in both Anchorage and Fairbanks including the Anchorage Museum and the Museum of the North in Fairbanks. The Anchorage Center for the Performing Arts also has a forty minute program on the aurora that runs throughout the summer tourist season.

The auroral forecast from the UAF Geophysical Institute is misleading in stating that you can see the lights up here at this time of year. I wish they would change that since it gives visitors the wrong impression.

Well, thanks everyone.

I guess we'll just sleep in then.

Happy 4th of July!

Well, thanks everyone.

 

I guess we'll just sleep in then.

 

Happy 4th of July!

Even if you don't see the aurora, there are lots of other great natural wonders in Alaska. Enjoy your visit.

Even if you don't see the aurora, there are lots of other great natural wonders in Alaska. Enjoy your visit.

Or go back in Feb or March with all the cold weather gear you own or can borrow and head north. Iceland or northern Norway would also work.

DON

So are you saying that the 5 hours between sunset and sunrise won't be dark enough to see them - even though the forecast shows above average activity?

When the sun sets during the summer in Alaska it doesn't drop below the horizon very far like it does in southern California so there is more light from it longer, particularly the further north you travel. Currently in Anchorage, it doesn't get completely dark at anytime during the night.

Your best chances will be in the southern part of the state with a good showing such as a 5 like you've indicated and a bunch of luck that they are showing at all. That's a good forecast but there is no guarantee that they will be out.

Well, thanks everyone.

 

I guess we'll just sleep in then.

 

Happy 4th of July!

You will never be closer....so it won't hurt to get up briefly and have a look.