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About iancal

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  1. Given what we have seen when cities 'open up' we would never consider a so called socially distance cruise. We do not think that it is possible or even probable. It may be billed as such and may in fact be that way for the first 6 hours. After that...no way. Nor do I think that a responsible cruise line would risk it. One more covid infected ship floating around looking for a port would just about finish off the industry in the near and medium term. You only have to look at what is happening in many cities today to understand the complete lack of common sense that many people appear to display. Who thinks cruisers have any more common sense that the general population in those cities? You may want to treat every day as if it is your last but that is no reason to jump off a bridge or carelessly place you, your loved ones, or others around you in the way of danger for no good reason whatsoever other than your selfish desire to take a cruise.
  2. Another vote for Viterbo/Orvieto area. We stayed in a wonderful B&B in a rural area outside Orvieto for five days and toured the area by car. When we left we dropped the car and trained into Rome. There are countless choices in Umbria and Tuscany that would permit you to return to Rome or Civ. in a few hours by train. We did the same in Siena. Stayed outside town at an agritoursimo for five nights and toured Tuscany. Dropped the car and hopped on the train. Another time we trained up the coast from Civ to Cinque Terre for five days. The very last thing we wanted in Cinque Terre was a rental car.
  3. If many of these islands are given a choice between the health of their population and tourist dollars I have little doubt that they will err on the side of public health. There are already a few sad examples of what happens when short term economic issues are placed ahead of public health and safety.
  4. We do exactly the same math. We also subtract the value of any perks that we may have on a cruise line. We were surprised at first at how little some of the perks are worth to us in monetary terms when we sat down and thought about it. The only inclusives that we are interested in is prepaid gratuities or the $200. per balcony cabin discount that we get as a perk from one cruise line. I like numbers. Getting down to net net gets rid of all the sales & marketing fog that cruise lines push out to customers.
  5. I believe that FCC's are a mugs game. Today the cruise line may tell you that the FCC may be be redeemed for cash in two years but all bets are off if on day 562 the issuer descends into bankruptcy. Unsecured creditors will be lucky to get a copy of the prior years cruise catalogue let alone a five cents on the dollar.
  6. We did private tours both times we were there and were very happy that we did. Last time there were four of us. My MIL wanted to take a side trip to a place called Mary's House. From our perspective it was a waste of time and money. A tourist trap if we ever saw one. We would definitely give it a miss. Terrace Houses were amazing. The great thing about a private tour vs the cruise tour is that we were finishing our tour just as the bus load of people were coming in. We also got to miss the stops for rugs, leather goods, and trinkets and trash which was a big plus from our perspective.
  7. We would not even consider flying into FLL/MIA or San Diego and doing an overnight pre cruise, let alone be foolish enough to board a cruise ship.
  8. Why doesn't HAL simply come clean with those booked on this cruise and cancel it? From my perspective failure to do so subtracts from HAL's already questionable covid credibility. Clean the slate, then move forward. I suspect that many cruisers are getting tired of the FCC book and rebook gag. IF it were me I would want to call it quits, get any monies refunded in a timely manner (ie not 90 plus days), and wait it out until it is safe to cruise.
  9. No surprise. I wonder if the cruise line subs do a running P&L over the years on each ship and if so will this, along with the 5 year projected mtce and drydock costs of each ship, play a part in determining which ships will be scrapped/sold.
  10. I believe time is against the cruise industry. As the shutdown continues I believe that some percentage of cruisers will turn their attention away to other forms of vacation and vacation travel. And/or commit those 'cruising funds' to other longer term financial commitments. For those that remain interested in cruising I believe that the longer the shutdown goes on, the slower the recovery will be. We do thumbnail plans of where we want to travel over the next two years. Cruising is not even a consideration at this point. I do not believe that we are very different than other travelers. Clearly there is a base of committed cruisers, some of whom would be foolish enough to board a cruise ship today if they could, however I doubt that there are enough of these folks to turn the P&L from red to even the faintest shade of black.
  11. No doubt this is a huge payday for the external consultants. Outside counsel for pending litigation and or subsidiary mergers, restructuring consulting, debt restructuring advisors, etc. I suspect that the midnight oil is burning at both Corporations with their internal team working of two or three different plans depending on how long this scourge continues. I believe that at the very least Carnival Corp subsidiary cruise lines may look very different when the dust settles. Both structure and number of ships in operation.
  12. We spent two weeks in Cyprus this past fall. We made the decision to go when while we were traveling in Greece. We stayed by the ocean, in the mountains, and in Nicosia. We enjoyed it so much that we want to return. Thinking of a trip to Greece in the spring. If so a few more weeks in Cyprus will be on the itinerary. This time we want to include travel through the Turkish part of the island.
  13. Science is not a straight line. There are new learnings about this virus, the treatment, the testing, etc, coming out every day as experience grows. This does not mean that our medical professionals and lab folk do not know what they are doing. They do...in the moment. Do I think that an entire ship could be quarantined. Absolutely. Why not? Think about this. There are probably still people who would today risk flying into MIA or FLL today just to board a cruise ship. Probably the same type of people who criticize the health professionals, public health experts even though their knowledge level of the covid health care issues matches their I.Q.
  14. Bottom line...any of those older ships could go. Who knows how much money has to be spent on drydocks and refurb over the next five years. Then there is the question of demand. It is really anyone's guess. I would not be optimistic.
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