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Tropical Depression #5-Emily


vicocala

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I saw saw this on CNN also...ugh! This looks scary. I'm beginning to get nervous about all these storms. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

 

In California, we're used to earthquakes....these storms bring terrrible distruction

plus days of fear and evacuations.

 

Thoughts are with all of you in the Gulf states.

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Thanks for the well wishes. Between what happened last year and the beginning of this year it is really incredible. Please, please stop before October comes, and more important, please spare Ocala!

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Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Edt Mon Jul 11 2005

 

The Cloud Pattern Has Become A Little Better Organized Over The Past

Several Hours. There Is Now A Ragged Banding Feature Over The

Western Semicircle Of The Circulation...and Dvorak Classifications

Are T2.0...i.e. 30 Kt. The Depression Is Moving Through An

Environment Of Modest Easterly Shear...which Is Causing The

Upper-level Outflow To Be Slightly Restricted Over The Eastern

Portions Of The System. The Ships Guidance Shows Rather Weak Shear

Over The Next Few Days. Gradual Strengthening Is Forecast...

Similar To The Previous Advisory.

 

There Is A Fair Amount Of Uncertainty In The Location Of The

Center...but My Best Estimate Is That The Motion Remains 270/10.

Some Increase In Forward Speed Is Anticipated As The Cyclone Moves

Away From The Influence Of Broad Cyclonic Flow Over The Eastern

Atlantic And Becomes More Embedded In A Deep Easterly Steering

Current. The Official Track Forecast Is A Little To The Left Of

And Slightly Faster Than The Previous One...and In Good Agreement

With The Latest Gfdl Model Track Output.

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Well, technically you do. Dennis was downgraded to a depression at five and you will probably get a few hours before Emily is officially coronated. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen at eleven or five at the latest.

 

Glad you are OK, we didn't get hit with much but a little rain. We were blessed, and from what I read this morning so was Pensacola. Twenty miles more to the west would of caused a lot more damage.

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Vicocala,

 

I'm glad that you are OK as well. We had some rain, and were very grateful that is about all we got. We are also grateful that our relatives in Pensacola were spared another hurricane like Ivan. It could have been so much worse. But then we all need to keep our eyes on the next one. They said it would be an active season, but this is a bit much. I think the entire state of Florida will need a vacation after this season.

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yeah, i'm grateful you folks in the panhandle area fared as well as you did... and am surprised to see that the storm is doing almost as much damage (with torrential rainfall) inland as it did along the coast.

 

here in cape coral it was a big nothing - my home weather station recorded about 5-3/4" of rain and one gust to 46mph... otherwise, just a dreary, rainy saturday.

 

i have to think td#5 will likely be an atlantic coast event, but you never can tell (esp this far out).

 

yes, it's going to be a VERY busy hurricane season :(

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Question for someone who knows more about weather than I do: Doesn't a hurricane (Dennis) drop the water temperature and make it cooler for the one who follows (TD#5)? I have heard this about the Atlantic when we have more than one hurricane in a season.

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Question for someone who knows more about weather than I do: Doesn't a hurricane (Dennis) drop the water temperature and make it cooler for the one who follows (TD#5)? I have heard this about the Atlantic when we have more than one hurricane in a season.

nope, not whatsoever. they derive their energy from the water, but in doing so they're not even denting the available supply (which is a lot right now - off the pier at fort myers beach the gulf temp is 89... as a point of reference my pool thermometer is reading 88 right now).

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Wow looks like hurricane season has widened the dates! eeeeks!

 

No widening of dates, hurricane season started June 1.

 

June and July are typically not very active, but June 1 is the official starting date of hurricane season.

 

The ending date is Oct 30 but there have been hurricanes in Nov.

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Sorry I would have to disagree Tarkus, she is talking about a process known as upwelling, where the warmer surface waters are mixed with the colder waters lower in depth. This may partially explain the weakening of Dennis just before it reached shore as it hit a slightly cooler patch of water, possibly caused by Cindy.

 

 

The problem is, the gulf is relatively shallow compared to the open ocean and the waters are warmer to a greater depth. Now if Emily develops and another storm were to try to develop right behind her, it would have some difficulty as the warm Atlantic waters are much shallower than those of the Gulf.

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Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Mon Jul 11 2005

 

Good Luck Finding A Center In The Depression This Afternoon. While

There Is Clearly A Broad-scale Circulation...the Depression Remains

Very Poorly Organized. There Continues To Be A Focus Of Low-level

Turning To The Northeast Of My Estimated Position...as Evidenced By

A Microwave Pass At 1737z...but For This Package I Will Try To Look

At The Big Picture And Follow The Geometric Center Of The Overall

Disturbance. Dvorak Intensity Estimates Are 30 Kt From Tafb...and

35 Kt From Sab And Afwa. Given The Cyclone's Disheveled

Appearance...the Initial Intensity Will Remain 30 Kt.

 

The Initial Motion Is Estimated To Be 280/12. The Depression Is

Currently South Of A Narrow Ridge Of High Pressure...and Global

Models Agree That High Pressure Will Build North Of The System Over

The Next Few Days. This Is Expected To Result In A West-

Northwestward Track With An Increase In Forward Speed. Model

Guidance Is Surprisingly Well Clustered...with The Only Significant

Difference Being The Forward Speed. The Official Forecast Is

Similar To The Previous Advisory And Very Close To The Dynamical

Model Consensus.

 

The Depression Remains Surrounded By Dry Air And Is South Of An

Upper-level Trough. However...over The Next Couple Of Days The

Cyclone Will Be Moving Into A More Favorable Upper-level

Environment And Slow Steady Strenghening Is Anticipated...roughly

In Accord With The Ships Model Guidance. The Gfdl Continues To Make

The Cyclone A Major Hurricane In The Caribbean

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Tropical Storm Emily Advisory Number 6nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl5 Am Ast Tue Jul 12 2005...emily Moving Westward Over The Tropical Atlantic...interests In The Lesser Antilles Should Monitor The Progress Ofemily. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possibleinland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issuedby Your Local Weather Office. At 5 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Emily Was Locatednear Latitude 11.4 North... Longitude 48.6 West Or About 845miles...1360 Km... East Of The Windward Islands.emily Is Moving Toward The West Near 15 Mph...24 Km/hr...and Awestward To West-northwestward Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24hours. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph... 75 Km/hr...with Highergusts. Some Increase In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles... 55 Km From The Center. Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.repeating The 5 Am Ast Position...11.4 N... 48.6 W. Movementtoward...west Near 15 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 45 Mph.minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb.the Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At11 Am Ast.forecaster Pasch

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I'm scared it going to ruin my cruise- Conquest July 17th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Hang in there. The very, very, worst case is the ship cannot get into port. Yes, it happened last year, but does not happen very often.

 

Think positive, all will be ok. There is a possiblity you may not get to the islands you planned on visiting but if that is the case the ship will visit islands that are safe and has no damage.

 

Go with flow. :)

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Maybe now we know why HAL is pulling all of their ships out of the Caribbean next year during hurricane season. I hope they weather people are wrong about the trend for the next 10 to 15 years. I don't like this trend. Stay safe everyone.

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