What happens when?...

[TeeRick]

1 hour ago, llawrence said:

Adding a bit to this topic....does anyone else think that maybe the Cruise lines are not being realistic on possible start dates....Because we are frequent cruises...Celebrity is constantly wanting us to book more cruises...just got a email about new 2021 Caribbean itineraries.  We already have thousands tied up in multi cancelled and rebooked cruises. I wonder if the cruise lines are being upfront with their consumers.  If the majority of posters feel pretty certain that cruising startup is a ways off....Celebrity should also know that..will it come to a point where celebrity cannot meet its financial obligations to its customers

 

Let's review.  Celebrity has announced a suspension of cruises through April 30 and in Europe many cruises suspended through October.  No Alaska or Canada season in 2021 at all.  I for one cannot see any optimism that cruises will happen in May unless they are cruises to nowhere with vaccinated passengers/crew (as trial runs).  Just ignore all of the marketing emails is my advice.  More and more posters here are coming to the sad realization that perhaps most of 2021 will be without cruising or cruising in very limited itineraries and locations.

[llawrence]

I really value your opinion....but I think my main question involves the fact that I think cruise lines know they are not going to start any time soon...but perpetuate the idea that they are to keep money coming in...

My concern is why would they use a marking strategy of selling more cruises when all issues point to a longer startup delay.   Offering 125% fcc or giving full refunds will come to a point of fiscal irresponsibility.   They seem to be kicking the can down the road.  All it takes is a Chapter 13 to make most refunds an FCC go away....

These cruises we were offered are for Sept-Dec 2021.

[Jeremiah1212]

32 minutes ago, llawrence said:

I really value your opinion....but I think my main question involves the fact that I think cruise lines know they are not going to start any time soon...but perpetuate the idea that they are to keep money coming in...

My concern is why would they use a marking strategy of selling more cruises when all issues point to a longer startup delay.   Offering 125% fcc or giving full refunds will come to a point of fiscal irresponsibility.   They seem to be kicking the can down the road.  All it takes is a Chapter 13 to make most refunds an FCC go away....

These cruises we were offered are for Sept-Dec 2021.

I can’t say that I disagree with your points but I also think giving the illusion they have given up would be damaging both financially and for optimism in the industry. They will resume as early as they possibly can, once the million obstacles are worked through and ships have somewhere to go (which is a point that is a being overlooked). There just aren’t any good answers. My gut tells me most of 2021 will be a wash. 

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, llawrence said:

I really value your opinion....but I think my main question involves the fact that I think cruise lines know they are not going to start any time soon...but perpetuate the idea that they are to keep money coming in...

My concern is why would they use a marking strategy of selling more cruises when all issues point to a longer startup delay.   Offering 125% fcc or giving full refunds will come to a point of fiscal irresponsibility.   They seem to be kicking the can down the road.  All it takes is a Chapter 13 to make most refunds an FCC go away....

These cruises we were offered are for Sept-Dec 2021.

Perhaps the only way to keep going without bankruptcy is to continue with securing lines of credit and loans and investments from banks, private investment firms, and funds.  The money collected from passengers giving deposits in advance will not keep them afloat (literally).  But the evidence of future demand by passengers as seen by future bookings will be a type of indicator to keep these investments and loans going.  

[Cruising is my passion]

I mostly agree that the entire 2021 year will be a wash, for many reasons. Europe has not yet opened their ports to passengers on cruises or land except for their own population traveling within and maybe other European residents. I am not sure if the Caribbean has opened their ports, either. But most of all, European and Fall TA’s will cancel because I got got terrific pricing, a great stateroom and TONS of OBC! As luck would have it!

[llawrence]

How long can the cruise lines continue to give 125% FCC and very generous obc.   On our remaining cruises...I don’t think we can spend all the obc we received.

I know it does not cost the lines anything at this point because no one is using it...on our Nov. cruise we rebooked a Royal Suite from a Sky suite at about 1/3 of the cost using FCC. Not to far down the road this will catch up to the lines. I am not as worried about a bankruptcy as a reorganization.....that may not bode well for consumers.