Understanding how NCL fares are set, and why they go up and down

Do you guys think I should wait to book my June 14 bermuda trip on the breakaway? I was thinking about booking it now.

Would you rather have certainty or the chance to score a good deal? No one here has a crystal ball. Pick one of the two and go with it.

Would you rather have certainty or the chance to score a good deal? No one here has a crystal ball. Pick one of the two and go with it.

Well if Norwegian works a certain way then there is a degree of certainty. That's what I got from skimming through the OP anyway.

We booked our Bermuda trip about 7 weeks out for our August cruise. I am pretty sure there were still cabins available at 10 days out. We booked a regular balcony for us and an inside cabin for our college-age sons. What type of cabin are you wanting? If any inside or any balcony will be fine, I would personally hold off til at least April 14th. The best prices were around 3-4 weeks out.

My dh and I like to cruise around our birthdays in November which is NOT Thanksgiving week. I looked at a Western Caribbean cruise next year on the NCL Star out of Tampa, currently listing at $1900 for 2 in a balcony. I could book the NCL Sun for THIS November for $1100 for 2 in a balcony. I know the Sun is older than the Star but $800 is a very large difference. We will take our chances and not book til around September or October.

When it comes to scoring a deal, it is a game of Who Blinks First.

I saw a thread today where a poster claimed that NCL lowered their fares when a promotion was over, while others chimed in and claimed that their cruise's fares either had not gone down or in fact had gone up.

 

I have also had debates here with people regarding the best time to book.

 

So when is the best time to book, and why do the fares jump up and down?

 

The short answer: It depends.

 

 

Computer Predictive Modeling

 

It is important to understand that there is not a human being watching the sales of your cruise and manually changing the prices. It is mostly done by computer, with the human element simply setting guidelines or coming up with promotions.

 

Initially each stateroom is assigned a "brochure price", or basically the highest rate that anyone will likely pay. It is very rare for the brochure price to be exceeded, and this only happens during super-high-demand cruises.

 

From there, the computer has a model of how the ship and itinerary have sold historically, and if not, it usually has something comparable. It also takes into account how cruises in general have been selling recently for other itineraries. These factors are then used to price each room.

 

The computer uses both historical averages and data fed by humans regarding what it expects to sell by certain dates. So if it's expected that 30% of inside cabins should have sold by 270 days out (a hypothetical I'm making up), then it will set prices according to what prices accomplished this last year, and perhaps adjust it up or down in accordance with current market conditions.

 

If the ship sells unexpectedly well, and is ahead of last year's sales, the price will automatically go up. If the sales fall behind prior years, the price will be lowered until it either catches up or it hits a pre-final-payment baseline. More on that shortly.

 

 

 

The Suite Exception

 

The above is done for the common room types -- balconies, oceanviews, and insides. Mini-suites are less plentiful, and thus their pricing is held more steady. This is why sometimes there is a huge price gap between balconies and mini suites, despite their relative similarity. Balconies will fall far below brochure price on many cruises, while mini suites will often see a much lesser reduction.

 

Full suites typically sell well, and there are not many of them. It is assumed that suites will sell out at a fairly constant price, so the sales-goal predictive pricing model is not exercised on them. Furthermore, the suites are considered luxury products, and the cruise line does not want to degrade their perceived value by highly discounting them at any point.

 

What if there are still unpurchased suites as it gets closer to sail time? Will they sail empty? No.

 

That's where the "upgrade fairy" comes in. Sales reps are assigned the task to move existing passengers into unsold suites, for an upgrade fee. If it is getting too close to cruise time, and suites remain unsold, cruisers currently in mini suites (or ones who paid a high price for their balcony room) will be called and asked if they wish to upgrade to a full suite, for what appears to be a reasonable cost. They will also attempt to upgrade lower-tier suite passengers to unsold higher-tier suites in the same fashion, knowing that it's easier to move the lower tier suites either through direct booking or upgrades.

 

This model allows the suites to always sail full, while keeping the price fairly constant.

 

In fact, if you plan to sail in a suite, booking early is the right way to go. You get your room locked in, and you are protected against possible price increases. And of course, if the price drops, you can adjust it provided that it's within the cancellation period.

 

However, if you are not in a suite, and if your itinerary is not either rare or popular, booking early is often a mistake.

 

 

 

The Pre-Final-Payment Baseline

 

For insides, oceanviews, and balconies, the computer keeps dropping the price until the proper number of cabins are sold in relation to the amount of time left before sailing.

 

So if the early bookings are slow, does that mean you will find an extreme bargain?

 

No. The reason you won't is because of the pre-final-payment baseline.

 

You are allowed to cancel for a full refund prior to final payment date (75 days out). People who notice price reductions can easily call up, cancel, and rebook at the new price. Knowing that this can and will occur, NCL will usually just adjust your price down to current levels if you notice a drop prior to the final payment date.

 

Given the customer's ability to re-rate the stateroom he purchased earlier, NCL is careful NOT to over-discount these rooms prior to final payment date. This would result in a large number of people re-pricing their rooms to super-discount fares, and it would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, NCL sets a pre-final-payment baseline rate for each category. If it's before final payment date, the rate will never drop below this baseline, no matter how poorly the cruise sells.

 

This is why you will never find spectacular bargains prior to final payment date. The only way you will get a "bargain" early is if you book, the ship sells unexpectedly well, and the price shoots up. But that's different matter entirely, and fairly uncommon for most mainstream US-departing itineraries.

 

The massive price drops occur AFTER final payment date -- when customers' hands are tied, and they can no longer re-rate their cruise fares.

 

Does this mean that you will find major bargains at the 74 day mark? No. Read on.

 

 

 

Drivin' (A Hard Bargain) at 55

 

NCL allows you to cancel your cruise from 56-75 days out and receive a full refund minus your deposit. As the deposits are typically not very large, this penalty is not very high, and therefore NCL does NOT dump rooms for very cheap during this period. Otherwise, it would be worth it for most cruisers to cancel and rebook at the bargain rates, and again this would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, even on poorly-selling cruises, NCL will wait until at least 55 days prior to sailing to start deeply discounting rooms. Why 55 days? At that point, the cancellation penalty is 50%, which makes it prohibitively expensive for customers to cancel and rebook at a cheaper rate.

 

The reductions do not always happen at the 55 day mark. That's just the first time you will possibly see a significant reduction in price. Depending upon how your cruise is selling, you may not see the massive reduction until as late as 14 days before sailing, but it's wise to start looking at the 55 day mark.

 

As a reference point, I just took an 1-way Vacouver-Anchorage cruise this summer. They dumped rooms at bargain rates 48 days before sail date. I grabbed a bargain room, and then the price slowly creeped back up after enough bargain rooms were grabbed. I got mine at the exact low point. It doesn't always work out this well (sometimes they fall even lower), but you need to use your best judgment if you're seeing the bottom price.

 

Will this dumping always occur? No. If the cruise is selling well, they have no need to dump rooms, and therefore you will never see super-bargain fares. However, as I said, most sailings DO have insides/oceanviews/balconies dumped at some point between the 14-55 day mark.

 

 

 

Determining When It Has Bottomed Out

 

It is important to check the NCL website for prices starting from the 55th day prior to sailing. However, if you do see a sharp reduction, how do you know it won't drop even more?

 

You rarely know for sure, but you can take a few steps to help determine this.

 

First off, you're looking for a HUGE sudden reduction in price. If it drops $50, don't get excited. We are talking about hundreds of dollars per person here. If you don't see that, keep waiting.

 

Sometimes the price drop will be huge but not sudden. For example, if you see four successive drops of $50 each, totaling $200, there's a good chance that you have found a great deal.

 

Second, you need to figure out the NCF (non-commissioned fare) part of each price. You can do this by simply calling NCL, asking for the current fare for the room you're interested in, and then asking, "And what portion of that is the non-comissioned fare?" They will tell you, and that amount is constant for ALL stateroom types, regardless of price. The NCF will also not change once it's established for a particular sailing, so you can ask this early on if you want.

 

So let's say they tell you that the NCF is $199 for this itinerary.

 

The price will absolutely, positively, NEVER fall below the NCF. So if you see a price for $249 for an inside stateroom, you should grab it, because it's just $50 over NCF.

 

Keep in mind that it is VERY RARE that they will sell a room for NCF only. Even the greatest bargain inside cabins tend to be at least $50 over NCF. I paid $104 over NCF for my second cabin. I did see some going for $54 over NCF, but I chose to pay an extra $50 to get a location close to my first stateroom.

 

So if you're going for an inside, you want to look for something no more than $150 over NCF, and preferably $50-$100 over NCF.

 

What about oceanviews and balconies? That's a bit harder, as they will never approach NCF. That one you'll have to just eyeball and go with your gut. If you see abrupt reductions of $250 or more on those rooms, you're pretty safe booking and knowing you got the best (or near the best) price possible.

 

Often it's best to strike while the iron is hot when you see massive, abrupt reductions. This is because the public will jump on these bargain rooms, and once those are sold, the computer will no longer be in panic mode, and the prices will creep back up.

 

What about super-super-last-minute rooms?

 

Yes, you can occasionally get bargains there, but it's not necessary to do this, and often waiting too long can backfire.

 

The NCL computer attempts to sell out almost the entire ship by 14 days prior to sail date. It keeps adjusting the prices around prior to that in order to assure this happens. Sometimes some cabins still won't sell, at which point you will still find amazing bargains. It is considered a disaster if a room sails empty, so the computer tries very hard to fill all rooms. However, the price will NEVER drop below NCF (and never below pre-assigned minimums for oceanviews and balconies), so sometimes a few rooms do sail empty.

 

However, given the focus upon filling the ship before 14 days prior to sailing, usually the best deals are already gone before then. It is best to deal shop starting at 55 days prior to sailing, and if you haven't seen a reduction by the 14 day mark, it is unlikely you will see one for that sailing.

 

 

 

The Book Extra People And Cancel Trick

 

One little-known pricing feature on NCL allows you to cancel extra people out of your stateroom for a full refund if you're 14 or more days away from sailing.

 

So if you have a family of 4, don't settle for one room and pay the expensive third and fourth person surcharge.

 

Even if you don't want to play the 14-55 day game of chicken described above, you can still book all 4 people in one room (whenever you feel comfortable doing so), and then keep price-watching starting from day 55 for a possible second room.

 

When you see inside cabins being dumped for near NCF, call NCL, cancel the extra two people out of your room, and book them their own inside cabin!

 

There will be no penalty for this (if it's 14 days or more away), and you will often get a second room for CHEAPER than adding third and fourth people to your existing room. Sailing with 2 kids under 18? No problem. Just assign one adult to each room. NCL does not care where you actually choose to sleep once onboard (this has been verified countless times here).

 

 

 

What About My Flight?

 

Many people feel uncomfortable waiting until 14-55 days out (especially if it's less than 30) to buy their airline tickets. After all, it is well known that airlines raise their prices as it gets close to the travel date.

 

As insides/oceanviews/balconies rarely sell out until VERY close to cruise time, you are really not risking anything. Go ahead and book your flights as if you're sure you're taking the cruise, even if you have not booked the cruise yet. You WILL get a room onboard of the type you desire (provided it's a balcony/oceanview/inside), it's just a matter of how much you pay.

 

The only itineraries I wouldn't try this would be the Christmas and New Year's ones, as those are popular and will sometimes sell out early.

 

 

 

What About Promotions?

 

Contrary to popular belief, promotions are somwhat independent of fares. It is not correct to say that they always raise prices before a promotion, and lower them afterwards.

 

However, promotions DO affect fares in two ways. First, price drops will often be delayed if a promotion is forthcoming. So if the computer would normally drop the price today but a good promotion is coming three days from now, the price drop will be delayed with the assumption that the promotion will bring in new orders and the percentage of staterooms sold will "catch up" to historical averages.

 

So then why do you sometimes see price drops right after promotions end? If the promotion fails to drum up enough interest to reach the expected percentage sold, the price will be lowered right when the promotion is over.

 

Second, if the cruise is selling ahead of historical averages, and if a promotion is coming up, the price might be raised because it is determined that this sailing doesn't "need" the promotion to reach the sales goals.

 

These two factors can give the illusions that promotions are just a shell game where you are actually paying for the extra perks you get, but in reality it sometimes just works out that way for the reasons stated above. There is not a set rule in the system to jack up prices just for promotions.

 

On a side note, you should always seek out the best promotion possible if booking prior to final payment date, and rebook if you see a better one (provided the fare hasn't risen). If you are booking in the 14-55 day range, you shouldn't worry too much about promotions, as the money you save on fare will typically dwarf any promotion they're running, aside from Kids Sail Free. Of course, Kids Sail Free requires that you stuff extra people in one stateroom, which in my opinion is quite unpleasant for a balcony room or smaller.

 

 

 

What's The Conclusion?

 

If you want a SUITE, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. (You likely won't see much of one, though.)

 

If you want a mini suite, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. However, if you are willing to gamble regarding the mini suites selling out (and just take a balcony if they do), I would suggest still waiting until the 55 day mark, because you will often save some money over booking early (though usually not anything dramatic).

 

If you want a baclony, oceanview, or inside, do NOT book early, unless the itinerary is rare (such as one that only sails 1-3 times per year) or during the Christmas/New Year's holidays. Instead, wait for the 55 day mark and do what I described above to get the best price.

 

 

 

Where did I get the above information? Some of it was from my own observations and studies, while some of it came from speaking to a source within NCL with whom I've recently become acquainted.

 

Feel free to ask me any questions.

Just wanted to say thank you for your post. A lot of common sense advice packed in there!!! :)

Thanks for all of your insight. I have 2 quick questions:

1. Are there an "preferred" travel agencies or consolidations for NCL that you are aware of? It would be nice to establish a relationship with an agent at one of these if they exist, because my brother and I have over 2 million frequent flyer miles and can fly on 14 days notice.

2. Is there an aftermarket web site where you can sell your cruise to another in the event you are already paid in full and need to cancel? I suspect that NCL is like airlines, but it would be sweet if cruise tickets were like timeshares.

Thanks for all of your insight. I have 2 quick questions:

1. Are there an "preferred" travel agencies or consolidations for NCL that you are aware of? It would be nice to establish a relationship with an agent at one of these if they exist, because my brother and I have over 2 million frequent flyer miles and can fly on 14 days notice.

2. Is there an aftermarket web site where you can sell your cruise to another in the event you are already paid in full and need to cancel? I suspect that NCL is like airlines, but it would be sweet if cruise tickets were like timeshares.

1. Naming of travel agencies is prohibited on Cruise Critic.

2. No, you can't sell your cruise. At least one person on the original reservation has to remain on the reservation.

Thanks for all of your insight. I have 2 quick questions:

1. Are there an "preferred" travel agencies or consolidations for NCL that you are aware of? It would be nice to establish a relationship with an agent at one of these if they exist, because my brother and I have over 2 million frequent flyer miles and can fly on 14 days notice.

2. Is there an aftermarket web site where you can sell your cruise to another in the event you are already paid in full and need to cancel? I suspect that NCL is like airlines, but it would be sweet if cruise tickets were like timeshares.

The poster above gave some good answers, so I won't re-answer them.

However, there is a trick that MIGHT work for "transferring" a cruise, though I've never tried it and can't guarantee it.

Let's say you and your wife have a cruise booked, but you want to transfer it to two other people. If you call NCL and ask for this, you will be denied.

However, you can add these other two people onto your room as third and fourth passengers. Then a short time later, call up and say you want to switch who is considered the third and fourth passenger, as you and your wife might break off and buy another room instead. So ask them to assign you and your wife as the third and fourth, and the couple you added as the first and second. Tell them you'll call back later and likely buy a new room and drop off of this one. Then call back a few days later and simply drop you and your wife off, which you can do for free provided it's 14 days or more out.

This MIGHT work, provided the last NCL rep (the one cancelling you out of the room) isn't looking at the whole picture of what was done from the start.

But I wouldn't count on it, and overall I wouldn't suggest buying a room on NCL if you're not planning upon using it.

BTW, timeshares are more flexible because they are, in general, a terrible value.

By contrast, you can get a great value on both the airlines and cruises.

I don't want to hijack my own thread, but let me just say that it is a HUGE MISTAKE to ever buy a timeshare from the builder (or through any sort of presentation). If you really want a timeshare, you can get one super-discounted on the secondary market. I'm talking about 90% discounts here.

I would still never want a timeshare, as they are more trouble than they're worth, even if you get them at a discount.

Do you think it is safe to use the waiting strategy on a transatlantic? We are planning to sail on the Epic's last transatlantic in April and I am trying to decide how long to wait.

 

I am also booked on the breakaway in December and have seen my cabin price drop almost $500.00. The suites are actually selling for less than what I paid for a balcony. If I call and ask for an upgrade will I lose my OBC?

I don't know about transatlantics. I haven't observed them, but they are not "common", so they are much more susceptible to early sellouts (and thus price INCREASES, rather than the dumping I described). That one would be true gambling to use my strategies, but it might be worth it if you are willing to do it in 2016 instead if you can't get a good price.

If you booked a balcony early for the Breakaway for a non-holiday December cruise, you sadly made a mistake, as you've seen from the price drops. However, you definitely can get upgraded to a suite, and you likely will keep your OBC. In fact, they may or may not even BOOST your OBC due to upgrading to a suite, but in all likelihood it will stay the same. But definitely call and upgrade, and try to ask for the existing OBC being given for suites (provided they are doing that at the moment). If there are zero perks being given at the moment for the suites, they might take your OBC, but it's still worth doing, as suites are far better than balcony rooms.

BTW, timeshares are more flexible because they are, in general, a terrible value.

 

By contrast, you can get a great value on both the airlines and cruises.

 

I don't want to hijack my own thread, but let me just say that it is a HUGE MISTAKE to ever buy a timeshare from the builder (or through any sort of presentation). If you really want a timeshare, you can get one super-discounted on the secondary market. I'm talking about 90% discounts here.

 

I would still never want a timeshare, as they are more trouble than they're worth, even if you get them at a discount.

Personally (as a timeshare owner of 26 years), I think timeshares are a great value, IF you understand how they work. Too many people get caught up in a slick presentation and don't think the process through prior to buying, which IMO, is their own fault.

BTW, it is very easy to get a timeshare for free. I've even seen people pay to have their timeshare taken off their hands.

Latest wave sale has opened up some great bargains in Europe.

Spirit and Jade solo with UDP and UBP for $625inc tx. prices on the jade dropped a bit since the sale started.

Just before Xmas the Jade had suites at silly cheap prices. even now the 2bed suite on the Jade in Jan for 10 nights < $1500inc tx solo.

pokerpro5,

Thank you so much for the detailed explanation of cruise price-setting strategies (from a couple of months ago; I only just started reading this thread). Some great ideas there that I can use for future planning.

I saw a thread today where a poster claimed that NCL lowered their fares when a promotion was over, while others chimed in and claimed that their cruise's fares either had not gone down or in fact had gone up.

 

I have also had debates here with people regarding the best time to book.

 

So when is the best time to book, and why do the fares jump up and down?

 

The short answer: It depends.

 

 

Computer Predictive Modeling

 

It is important to understand that there is not a human being watching the sales of your cruise and manually changing the prices. It is mostly done by computer, with the human element simply setting guidelines or coming up with promotions.

 

Initially each stateroom is assigned a "brochure price", or basically the highest rate that anyone will likely pay. It is very rare for the brochure price to be exceeded, and this only happens during super-high-demand cruises.

 

From there, the computer has a model of how the ship and itinerary have sold historically, and if not, it usually has something comparable. It also takes into account how cruises in general have been selling recently for other itineraries. These factors are then used to price each room.

 

The computer uses both historical averages and data fed by humans regarding what it expects to sell by certain dates. So if it's expected that 30% of inside cabins should have sold by 270 days out (a hypothetical I'm making up), then it will set prices according to what prices accomplished this last year, and perhaps adjust it up or down in accordance with current market conditions.

 

If the ship sells unexpectedly well, and is ahead of last year's sales, the price will automatically go up. If the sales fall behind prior years, the price will be lowered until it either catches up or it hits a pre-final-payment baseline. More on that shortly.

 

 

 

The Suite Exception

 

The above is done for the common room types -- balconies, oceanviews, and insides. Mini-suites are less plentiful, and thus their pricing is held more steady. This is why sometimes there is a huge price gap between balconies and mini suites, despite their relative similarity. Balconies will fall far below brochure price on many cruises, while mini suites will often see a much lesser reduction.

 

Full suites typically sell well, and there are not many of them. It is assumed that suites will sell out at a fairly constant price, so the sales-goal predictive pricing model is not exercised on them. Furthermore, the suites are considered luxury products, and the cruise line does not want to degrade their perceived value by highly discounting them at any point.

 

What if there are still unpurchased suites as it gets closer to sail time? Will they sail empty? No.

 

That's where the "upgrade fairy" comes in. Sales reps are assigned the task to move existing passengers into unsold suites, for an upgrade fee. If it is getting too close to cruise time, and suites remain unsold, cruisers currently in mini suites (or ones who paid a high price for their balcony room) will be called and asked if they wish to upgrade to a full suite, for what appears to be a reasonable cost. They will also attempt to upgrade lower-tier suite passengers to unsold higher-tier suites in the same fashion, knowing that it's easier to move the lower tier suites either through direct booking or upgrades.

 

This model allows the suites to always sail full, while keeping the price fairly constant.

 

In fact, if you plan to sail in a suite, booking early is the right way to go. You get your room locked in, and you are protected against possible price increases. And of course, if the price drops, you can adjust it provided that it's within the cancellation period.

 

However, if you are not in a suite, and if your itinerary is not either rare or popular, booking early is often a mistake.

 

 

 

The Pre-Final-Payment Baseline

 

For insides, oceanviews, and balconies, the computer keeps dropping the price until the proper number of cabins are sold in relation to the amount of time left before sailing.

 

So if the early bookings are slow, does that mean you will find an extreme bargain?

 

No. The reason you won't is because of the pre-final-payment baseline.

 

You are allowed to cancel for a full refund prior to final payment date (75 days out). People who notice price reductions can easily call up, cancel, and rebook at the new price. Knowing that this can and will occur, NCL will usually just adjust your price down to current levels if you notice a drop prior to the final payment date.

 

Given the customer's ability to re-rate the stateroom he purchased earlier, NCL is careful NOT to over-discount these rooms prior to final payment date. This would result in a large number of people re-pricing their rooms to super-discount fares, and it would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, NCL sets a pre-final-payment baseline rate for each category. If it's before final payment date, the rate will never drop below this baseline, no matter how poorly the cruise sells.

 

This is why you will never find spectacular bargains prior to final payment date. The only way you will get a "bargain" early is if you book, the ship sells unexpectedly well, and the price shoots up. But that's different matter entirely, and fairly uncommon for most mainstream US-departing itineraries.

 

The massive price drops occur AFTER final payment date -- when customers' hands are tied, and they can no longer re-rate their cruise fares.

 

Does this mean that you will find major bargains at the 74 day mark? No. Read on.

 

 

 

Drivin' (A Hard Bargain) at 55

 

NCL allows you to cancel your cruise from 56-75 days out and receive a full refund minus your deposit. As the deposits are typically not very large, this penalty is not very high, and therefore NCL does NOT dump rooms for very cheap during this period. Otherwise, it would be worth it for most cruisers to cancel and rebook at the bargain rates, and again this would cost NCL a fortune.

 

Instead, even on poorly-selling cruises, NCL will wait until at least 55 days prior to sailing to start deeply discounting rooms. Why 55 days? At that point, the cancellation penalty is 50%, which makes it prohibitively expensive for customers to cancel and rebook at a cheaper rate.

 

The reductions do not always happen at the 55 day mark. That's just the first time you will possibly see a significant reduction in price. Depending upon how your cruise is selling, you may not see the massive reduction until as late as 14 days before sailing, but it's wise to start looking at the 55 day mark.

 

As a reference point, I just took an 1-way Vacouver-Anchorage cruise this summer. They dumped rooms at bargain rates 48 days before sail date. I grabbed a bargain room, and then the price slowly creeped back up after enough bargain rooms were grabbed. I got mine at the exact low point. It doesn't always work out this well (sometimes they fall even lower), but you need to use your best judgment if you're seeing the bottom price.

 

Will this dumping always occur? No. If the cruise is selling well, they have no need to dump rooms, and therefore you will never see super-bargain fares. However, as I said, most sailings DO have insides/oceanviews/balconies dumped at some point between the 14-55 day mark.

 

 

 

Determining When It Has Bottomed Out

 

It is important to check the NCL website for prices starting from the 55th day prior to sailing. However, if you do see a sharp reduction, how do you know it won't drop even more?

 

You rarely know for sure, but you can take a few steps to help determine this.

 

First off, you're looking for a HUGE sudden reduction in price. If it drops $50, don't get excited. We are talking about hundreds of dollars per person here. If you don't see that, keep waiting.

 

Sometimes the price drop will be huge but not sudden. For example, if you see four successive drops of $50 each, totaling $200, there's a good chance that you have found a great deal.

 

Second, you need to figure out the NCF (non-commissioned fare) part of each price. You can do this by simply calling NCL, asking for the current fare for the room you're interested in, and then asking, "And what portion of that is the non-comissioned fare?" They will tell you, and that amount is constant for ALL stateroom types, regardless of price. The NCF will also not change once it's established for a particular sailing, so you can ask this early on if you want.

 

So let's say they tell you that the NCF is $199 for this itinerary.

 

The price will absolutely, positively, NEVER fall below the NCF. So if you see a price for $249 for an inside stateroom, you should grab it, because it's just $50 over NCF.

 

Keep in mind that it is VERY RARE that they will sell a room for NCF only. Even the greatest bargain inside cabins tend to be at least $50 over NCF. I paid $104 over NCF for my second cabin. I did see some going for $54 over NCF, but I chose to pay an extra $50 to get a location close to my first stateroom.

 

So if you're going for an inside, you want to look for something no more than $150 over NCF, and preferably $50-$100 over NCF.

 

What about oceanviews and balconies? That's a bit harder, as they will never approach NCF. That one you'll have to just eyeball and go with your gut. If you see abrupt reductions of $250 or more on those rooms, you're pretty safe booking and knowing you got the best (or near the best) price possible.

 

Often it's best to strike while the iron is hot when you see massive, abrupt reductions. This is because the public will jump on these bargain rooms, and once those are sold, the computer will no longer be in panic mode, and the prices will creep back up.

 

What about super-super-last-minute rooms?

 

Yes, you can occasionally get bargains there, but it's not necessary to do this, and often waiting too long can backfire.

 

The NCL computer attempts to sell out almost the entire ship by 14 days prior to sail date. It keeps adjusting the prices around prior to that in order to assure this happens. Sometimes some cabins still won't sell, at which point you will still find amazing bargains. It is considered a disaster if a room sails empty, so the computer tries very hard to fill all rooms. However, the price will NEVER drop below NCF (and never below pre-assigned minimums for oceanviews and balconies), so sometimes a few rooms do sail empty.

 

However, given the focus upon filling the ship before 14 days prior to sailing, usually the best deals are already gone before then. It is best to deal shop starting at 55 days prior to sailing, and if you haven't seen a reduction by the 14 day mark, it is unlikely you will see one for that sailing.

 

 

 

The Book Extra People And Cancel Trick

 

One little-known pricing feature on NCL allows you to cancel extra people out of your stateroom for a full refund if you're 14 or more days away from sailing.

 

So if you have a family of 4, don't settle for one room and pay the expensive third and fourth person surcharge.

 

Even if you don't want to play the 14-55 day game of chicken described above, you can still book all 4 people in one room (whenever you feel comfortable doing so), and then keep price-watching starting from day 55 for a possible second room.

 

When you see inside cabins being dumped for near NCF, call NCL, cancel the extra two people out of your room, and book them their own inside cabin!

 

There will be no penalty for this (if it's 14 days or more away), and you will often get a second room for CHEAPER than adding third and fourth people to your existing room. Sailing with 2 kids under 18? No problem. Just assign one adult to each room. NCL does not care where you actually choose to sleep once onboard (this has been verified countless times here).

 

 

 

What About My Flight?

 

Many people feel uncomfortable waiting until 14-55 days out (especially if it's less than 30) to buy their airline tickets. After all, it is well known that airlines raise their prices as it gets close to the travel date.

 

As insides/oceanviews/balconies rarely sell out until VERY close to cruise time, you are really not risking anything. Go ahead and book your flights as if you're sure you're taking the cruise, even if you have not booked the cruise yet. You WILL get a room onboard of the type you desire (provided it's a balcony/oceanview/inside), it's just a matter of how much you pay.

 

The only itineraries I wouldn't try this would be the Christmas and New Year's ones, as those are popular and will sometimes sell out early.

 

 

 

What About Promotions?

 

Contrary to popular belief, promotions are somwhat independent of fares. It is not correct to say that they always raise prices before a promotion, and lower them afterwards.

 

However, promotions DO affect fares in two ways. First, price drops will often be delayed if a promotion is forthcoming. So if the computer would normally drop the price today but a good promotion is coming three days from now, the price drop will be delayed with the assumption that the promotion will bring in new orders and the percentage of staterooms sold will "catch up" to historical averages.

 

So then why do you sometimes see price drops right after promotions end? If the promotion fails to drum up enough interest to reach the expected percentage sold, the price will be lowered right when the promotion is over.

 

Second, if the cruise is selling ahead of historical averages, and if a promotion is coming up, the price might be raised because it is determined that this sailing doesn't "need" the promotion to reach the sales goals.

 

These two factors can give the illusions that promotions are just a shell game where you are actually paying for the extra perks you get, but in reality it sometimes just works out that way for the reasons stated above. There is not a set rule in the system to jack up prices just for promotions.

 

On a side note, you should always seek out the best promotion possible if booking prior to final payment date, and rebook if you see a better one (provided the fare hasn't risen). If you are booking in the 14-55 day range, you shouldn't worry too much about promotions, as the money you save on fare will typically dwarf any promotion they're running, aside from Kids Sail Free. Of course, Kids Sail Free requires that you stuff extra people in one stateroom, which in my opinion is quite unpleasant for a balcony room or smaller.

 

 

 

What's The Conclusion?

 

If you want a SUITE, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. (You likely won't see much of one, though.)

 

If you want a mini suite, book as early as possible, and then watch for price reductions online. However, if you are willing to gamble regarding the mini suites selling out (and just take a balcony if they do), I would suggest still waiting until the 55 day mark, because you will often save some money over booking early (though usually not anything dramatic).

 

If you want a baclony, oceanview, or inside, do NOT book early, unless the itinerary is rare (such as one that only sails 1-3 times per year) or during the Christmas/New Year's holidays. Instead, wait for the 55 day mark and do what I described above to get the best price.

 

 

 

Where did I get the above information? Some of it was from my own observations and studies, while some of it came from speaking to a source within NCL with whom I've recently become acquainted.

 

Feel free to ask me any questions.

I want to thank you for this post. I live in Florida, and had been tracking a cruise, wondering whether I should book last minute for a balcony. I read this post on day 17 of the 14-55 window you talked about. For the last month and a half I have seen the price of a GTY balcony drop about $400. It went up $30 in the last week. After reading your post, I guessed that this was as far as things would drop.

I called in to book my room on Saturday morning, right after I noticed all of the Oceanview rooms had sold out (which was my backup plan). I checked back today, and almost all of the balcony GTY options were sold out. The cheapest balcony was $30 more per person than I paid, and probably wouldn't have been a mid-ship (which is what I was hoping for with the higher GTY tier). The mid-ship guarantee was $80 more per person today.

The best part? I got my room assignment today, and was upgraded to a mini-suite, which was $150 more pp than what I paid for.

My plan, before reading your post, was to wait and see if prices would keep going down. I would have kept waiting until after the 14 day window, and would have ended up paying at least $60 more total, if not $160 more total, all for a balcony, rather than a mini suite for less. Thanks for the great information!

My girlfriend and I are so excited to go on the cruise. This will be my second one on NCL and her first cruise ever.

Cruise lines have been operating regional pricing a lot more.

This can impact the US pricing model.

The UK, EU(by region), US, AU and INTL can all have different prices and they move differently.

Eg often the Jade and Spirit have been cheaper in the UK/EU and they have been know to dump cabins super cheap in Spain and Italy to maintain US/UK prices.

I have also seen Suite prices drop really low in the UK on some sailings although it is rare to see the price inversions you see in US where cabin prices are not in order(eg a suite lower than a mini)

Another thing to look out for is the timing some changes happen early EST so there is a window to grab a bargain before the US wakes up. Sometimes the prices changes are errors and don't get adjusted till people come in to work or/or people start phoning the US offices.

Another factor that can influence pricesis the selection of sailings that will have no or low solo supplements.

These are sometimes not show on search pages but are shown when you go through to a cabin selection. The Jade 14Jan has no solo sup across the full range of cabins so couples can book a high grade and a low grade and save a load of money.

I want to thank you for this post. I live in Florida, and had been tracking a cruise, wondering whether I should book last minute for a balcony. I read this post on day 17 of the 14-55 window you talked about. For the last month and a half I have seen the price of a GTY balcony drop about $400. It went up $30 in the last week. After reading your post, I guessed that this was as far as things would drop.

 

I called in to book my room on Saturday morning, right after I noticed all of the Oceanview rooms had sold out (which was my backup plan). I checked back today, and almost all of the balcony GTY options were sold out. The cheapest balcony was $30 more per person than I paid, and probably wouldn't have been a mid-ship (which is what I was hoping for with the higher GTY tier). The mid-ship guarantee was $80 more per person today.

 

The best part? I got my room assignment today, and was upgraded to a mini-suite, which was $150 more pp than what I paid for.

 

My plan, before reading your post, was to wait and see if prices would keep going down. I would have kept waiting until after the 14 day window, and would have ended up paying at least $60 more total, if not $160 more total, all for a balcony, rather than a mini suite for less. Thanks for the great information!

 

My girlfriend and I are so excited to go on the cruise. This will be my second one on NCL and her first cruise ever.

Congrats!!! Hope y'all have a great cruise. :)

BUMP

Lots of people talking about pricing again, so I think it's important this thread is seen.

Any questions?

Thank you for this informative and insightful post! The timing couldn't be better.

My DH & I are booked on the Jewel for the 10-day Glacier Bay cruise September 19, 2015. It'll be Husband's first cruise and both our first time to Alaska (a life-time dream come true for him). We have a GTY Inside booked for $799pp. Honestly, we're not concerned about our room, we're in love with the itinerary and ship. I would, however, LOVE to surprise him so he could experience this once-in-a-lifetime cruise from a balcony room.

After reading your post I'm torn, though. I'm wondering if I should cancel our booking with no penalty and see what happens at/after the 55 day mark? Or let it ride and upgrade from inside to balcony if the price falls. If I cancel, I may give poor DH a coronary! I wish there had been a 10-day this past September that I could compare fares with :p

You've given me lots to think about and, thankfully, I have some time to do that!

Thank you for this informative and insightful post! The timing couldn't be better.

 

My DH & I are booked on the Jewel for the 10-day Glacier Bay cruise September 19, 2015. It'll be Husband's first cruise and both our first time to Alaska (a life-time dream come true for him). We have a GTY Inside booked for $799pp. Honestly, we're not concerned about our room, we're in love with the itinerary and ship. I would, however, LOVE to surprise him so he could experience this once-in-a-lifetime cruise from a balcony room.

 

After reading your post I'm torn, though. I'm wondering if I should cancel our booking with no penalty and see what happens at/after the 55 day mark? Or let it ride and upgrade from inside to balcony if the price falls. If I cancel, I may give poor DH a coronary! I wish there had been a 10-day this past September that I could compare fares with :p

 

You've given me lots to think about and, thankfully, I have some time to do that!

You just have to remember, it's like playing the lottery. Sometimes you wait and get a great price. Sometimes you wait and the price goes up or the ship sells out (which can be painful if you are set on a specific itinerary or ship). So sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

You just have to remember, it's like playing the lottery. Sometimes you wait and get a great price. Sometimes you wait and the price goes up or the ship sells out (which can be painful if you are set on a specific itinerary or ship). So sometimes you win and sometimes you lose.

Isn't that the truth! And I'd hate to gamble with this one. We live insanely close to a couple cruise ports in the US and after this Alaska one I'd have no problem rolling the dice & seeing what happens with a last-minute deal. But since this one is leaving from a port clear across the country it complicates things. That, and I'm married to A Planner :D

pokerpro5, what a great thread! Thanks.

Subscribed.

Thank you for this informative and insightful post! The timing couldn't be better.

 

My DH & I are booked on the Jewel for the 10-day Glacier Bay cruise September 19, 2015. It'll be Husband's first cruise and both our first time to Alaska (a life-time dream come true for him). We have a GTY Inside booked for $799pp. Honestly, we're not concerned about our room, we're in love with the itinerary and ship. I would, however, LOVE to surprise him so he could experience this once-in-a-lifetime cruise from a balcony room.

 

After reading your post I'm torn, though. I'm wondering if I should cancel our booking with no penalty and see what happens at/after the 55 day mark? Or let it ride and upgrade from inside to balcony if the price falls. If I cancel, I may give poor DH a coronary! I wish there had been a 10-day this past September that I could compare fares with :p

 

You've given me lots to think about and, thankfully, I have some time to do that!

It is highly likely you can do a lot better in the 14-55 day range.

Try calling 76 days out and asking how many insides are still available. If it's a lot, you can feel safe to cancel and start price watching on day 55.

There is no way they will abruptly sell out of a lot of inside cabins between 75-55 days.

Sept 19 is also a generally unpopular date to cruise Alaska.

Isn't that the truth! And I'd hate to gamble with this one. We live insanely close to a couple cruise ports in the US and after this Alaska one I'd have no problem rolling the dice & seeing what happens with a last-minute deal. But since this one is leaving from a port clear across the country it complicates things. That, and I'm married to A Planner :D

I'm also a planner, but this method works so well that I would be insane not to do it.

I am still very perplexed by suite pricing differences. During the current promotion, I decided to book a suite on the Epic on a Med cruise in April 2016, which I know is low season, and therefore often less expensive. I had selected my aft penthouse. We book thru CAS, so I called to see what type of deal they could offer. As I spoke with the rep, and checked different category rates, it became apparent that the Penthouses contained in the Haven uncharacteristically were only marginally more expensive (I know all suites on the Epic are deemed Haven suites, but who wants to walk a mile to go to the pool/restaurant etc) so I told the rep I was also looking to price a Haven located penthouse and thank goodness I reached a good rep, because she gave me the price, and then said "Did you notice that the 2 bedroom suites in the Haven are priced lower on this sailing than either the aft or Haven located Penthouse?" Huh? That makes no sense to me at all. But I dont think I would have spotted it on my own, since there are just two of us and I never would have even glanced at the 2 bedroom pricing. But I ended up booking the 2 bedroom suite in the Haven for less than it would have cost me for a non-Haven located Penthouse. It must be that the Penthouses were close to sold out, and they had substantial availability on 2 bedrooms, but it still doesnt make sense. But I am very happy - what a great deal....

Terry