Next ship build after Allure of the Seas

[negc]

Thinking about the comment that the smaller ships are not economically feasible does seem to agree with what Carnival is doing. They seem to be making money even in this economy and all they have are smaller ships (compared to Voyager, Freedom and Oasis class). I think they have 8 Fantasy class ships (70,000 tons) and 4 Spirit class (88,000 tons) all of which are smaller than Radiance at 90,000 tons. 12 of their 22 ships are less than 90,000 tons so it sort of doesn’t make sense that you can’t make money with smaller ships.

 

You may be able to you if you are willing to offer measurably lower passenger/space ratios, which is pretty much what Carnival is doing. Regardless, in Royal Caribbean's case, they will tell you that it is less expensive to operate one Oasis of the Seas ship with its 5400 passengers (more if you fill third and fourth berths) than two Radiance class ships which will carry fewer total passengers. The economy of scale works out in favor of operating one larger ship rather than two smaller ships. You can make money with smaller ships, but you can make considerably more money with larger ships. There is also price to be paid by lowering the passenger/space ratio. It usually results in guests feeling uncomfortably crowded and packed into spaces too small for their intended purposes. One of the most frequent comments I read about RCI's largest ships is the sense that passengers have that the ships, despite their size and number of passengers, never feel crowded. Read some of the most recent reviews of Oasis now that the ship is sailing near, at, or above 100% capacity and you will see this mentioned time and again.:)

[negc]

Chapter 11 of the Seas

 

:D

 

Not if Oasis continues to get great reviews and people continue to be willing to pay premium prices to sail on her and her sister.:) Now if you were referring to NCL's white elephant, Epic, I might agree.;)

[wolfcathorse]

Talking with several officers on the Oasis they said that after RCI finishes the current Celeberty builds the next ships for RC will be Radiance class or slightly smaller. They also said they do not believe RCI will ever build another ship the size of Oasis/Allure. Has anybody else heard this?

 

Yeah, a captain told me this Sept 2006. After a 4th Freedom class was built, the designers would look at the Radiance class. Now looking at and actually putting in an order in for one are 2 different things. But in 2006 who would have thought the economy would go through the adjustment that it did.

[dfishner]

All though I believe RCL will build other ships it will not be for awhile with cost of Oasis and Allure and you have to figure in the 3 or is it 4 soltice class for Celebrity. You have 6 ships that are just finished or in the process of being finish over the next year or so.. I really cannot see RCL doing to much after that for some time to come. I know most would like to see a new built Radiance class. I kind of look at Solstice as that and after we cruise on Oasis in November that will probably be our next cruise.

[Germancruiser]

Radiance Class- is the best the built, with many connectons to the sea. I can not stand those enclosed ships with so less contact to the sea.

[JLC@SD]

Talking with several officers on the Oasis they said that after RCI finishes the current Celeberty builds the next ships for RC will be Radiance class or slightly smaller. They also said they do not believe RCI will ever build another ship the size of Oasis/Allure. Has anybody else heard this?

 

I think the problem is that RCL needs to find 10,000 passengers each week........ that want to do the 7 day itineraries........the two ships offer........that is 520,000 passenger a year......to do St Thomas et al...... or Cosumel et al. They will have to discount those itineraries soon to fill the ships.

[John Henry on CC]

Chapter 11 of the Seas

 

:D

 

All though I believe RCL will build other ships it will not be for awhile with cost of Oasis and Allure and you have to figure in the 3 or is it 4 soltice class for Celebrity. You have 6 ships that are just finished or in the process of being finish over the next year or so.. I really cannot see RCL doing to much after that for some time to come. I know most would like to see a new built Radiance class. I kind of look at Solstice as that and after we cruise on Oasis in November that will probably be our next cruise.

 

Not if Oasis continues to get great reviews and people continue to be willing to pay premium prices to sail on her and her sister.:) Now if you were referring to NCL's white elephant, Epic, I might agree.;)

 

Bill, that's sort of where I was going with my comment. I think that RC will take a little hiatus from building. It's prudent, don't you think? Let them concentrate on making the ships that they have perform up to the high standards we Cruise Critics demand. ;)

[Pomperaugrr]

The last I heard from the captain of the Serenade, last year, was that RCI would probably build a couple of ships based upon the Celebrity Solstice platform. They have the basic design and would incorporate features from the Radiance Class and Voyager/Freedom classes as well. This seems to make sense to me.

 

It is amazing how many different answers we all get to the same question.

 

Eric

[G'ma]

Chapter 11 of the Seas

 

:D

 

:eek::eek::D:rolleyes:

[Karter]

Carnival jams more people into their ships then RCI which increases profitability.

 

The new 130,000 GRT Carnival Dream maxes out at 4,400 people whereas the much larger Freedom class, at 160,000 GRT , maxes out at 4,200 people.

 

I'm not sure I agree with this statement.

 

Based on the following definitions of tonnage:

 

The "Registered tonnage" is basically the internal capacity of a vessel, a registered ton being 100 cubic feet. The capacity of other spaces above the "tonnage deck" can be added to give the "Gross tonnage".

 

The capacity of "non-earning" spaces eg spaces occupied by engines, tanks, stores, crews quarters, navigation space etc can be deducted (if already included in the gross tonnage) to give the "Nett tonnage".

 

"Displacement tonnage" is the weight of the vessel and is, obviously, equal to the weight of water displaced. The meanings of "Light displacement" and "Loaded displacement" refer to the weight of the vessel and her equipment and to the weight loaded with water, fuel, cargo, stores and passengers respectively. The difference between these two is the "Deadweight tonnage"

 

And doing some simple calculations based on standard occupance 2 "people per cabin" I compared the space per person for the different ship classes. I calculated the Voyager, Freedom and Oasis clas two different ways to adjust for all the "wasted (but very impressive) space" in the Grand Promanade. Below are my calculations:

 

Carnival

Tonage Pass Ton/pass Adj Ton Pass Ton/pass

Fantasy 70,367 2,056 34.23

Spirit 88,500 2,124 41.67

Destiny 101,353 2,642 38.36

Triumph 101,509 2,758 36.81

Conquest 110,000 2,974 36.99

Splendor 113,300 3,006 37.69

Dream 130,000 3,646 35.66

Avg 37.34

 

RCCL

Majesty 73,941 2,390 30.94

Enchant 80,400 2,446 32.87

Vision 78,491 2,435 32.23

Splendor 70,000 2,076 33.72

Grandure 74,000 2,446 30.25

Radiance 90,090 2,501 36.02

Voyager 138,000 3,114 44.32 129,000 3,114 41.43

Freedom 160,000 3,634 44.03 148,000 3,634 40.73

Oasis 220,000 5,400 40.74 211,000 5,400 39.07

Avg 36.12

 

 

 

If you use the adjusted tonnage based on these numbers the variation is only about +/-10% from average space per passenger of 36 or 37 tonnes per passenger. So the data does not completly support jamming more people into less space.

[compman9]

Excellent last post, it does seem that people on this board automatically take every chance to stick it to Carnival for some reason. The most I have been jammed on a ship was on my last one, which many seem to think is a great class of ship.

 

Anyway, back to the point, I also spoke to a few staff on the Brilliance and the Crown & Anchor people thought RCI are leaning more towards itineraries than ships, which would indicate that smaller ships may be what they return to - for example, only the smallest (and oldest) class of ship can fit under the bridge in Shanghai. Which could suggest a re-design of those smaller vessels, which would certainly offer competition to some of the smaller lines, especially if they hike up to Celebrity standard.

 

It will certainly be interesting to see. Personally, I can't wait to try the Allure out.

[ehfl]

Larger ships are much more efficient in terms of fuel usage (overall, as well as per passenger), and labor costs are also less.

 

If larger ships were more expensive per passenger mile, then we would see the industry trend towards smaller ships. Instead, the trend is towards larger ships. I don't think we're done seeing more mega-ships.

[pcl_cruiser]

I think they should survey the cruisers and make a ship with all of the elements that cruisers really like. For example, most seem to like the prominade and the radiance class, as well as flow riders and ice skating rinks. So why not make a ship the size of radiance, with the other elements and make the cabin choices simpler and cheaper????

[DEIx15x8]

I uploaded a video of the entire Captain's Corner from the Oasis's January 2nd sailing. In part 6 (about 3:30 in) Captain Wright talks about the state of the fleet and that the banks don't want them building anything new at this time. In an email from him last week he also said that their are no ship orders on the horizon. Some of the questions in other segments may be of interest as well. He discusses things like the environment impact and efficiency of Oasis during several questions as well.

All9:

Part6:

[CruisinManiac]

Talking with several officers on the Oasis they said that after RCI finishes the current Celeberty builds the next ships for RC will be Radiance class or slightly smaller. They also said they do not believe RCI will ever build another ship the size of Oasis/Allure. Has anybody else heard this?

 

Yes, the environmental officer that I had dinner with (along with the Captain,) on the AOS told us the same thing. ;)

[Cruising89143]

I uploaded a video of the entire Captain's Corner from the Oasis's January 2nd sailing. In part 6 (about 3:30 in) Captain Wright talks about the state of the fleet and that the banks don't want them building anything new at this time. In an email from him last week he also said that their are no ship orders on the horizon. Some of the questions in other segments may be of interest as well. He discusses things like the environment impact and efficiency of Oasis during several questions as well.

All9:

Part6:

 

Makes sense to me. RCI really does not any new tonnage at this time. The fleet is not that old. Plus you look at the five new ships for Celebrity. They are also set with their fleet. I would rather see RCCL stop building ships, pay down their debt, let pricing catch up with demand to bring quality back up in a few areas. I do remember Adam Goldstein making a comment during one of the Oasis reveals and he clearly stated that there would not be any more Radiance size ships built. Look at Celebrity, their newest ships are close to 130,000 tons and are longer than the Voyager class ships.

[The Big Booper]

Makes sense to me. RCI really does not any new tonnage at this time. The fleet is not that old. Plus you look at the five new ships for Celebrity. They are also set with their fleet. I would rather see RCCL stop building ships, pay down their debt, let pricing catch up with demand to bring quality back up in a few areas. I do remember Adam Goldstein making a comment during one of the Oasis reveals and he clearly stated that there would not be any more Radiance size ships built. Look at Celebrity, their newest ships are close to 130,000 tons and are longer than the Voyager class ships.

 

We were docked at St. Kitts a couple of weeks ago and the Sostice appeared just as big as the Explorer even thought the GRT is less.

 

[jmf123]

I would hope for more Radiance class size ships (or smaller :o) in the future, but it appears there is nothing on order for Royal Caribbean after the Allure's arrival in December this year, at least through the fall of 2012. Celebrity has their Eclipse arriving this spring and the Silhouette (not wild about that name!) in the fall of 2011, and a fifth Solstice class ship planned for fall 2012. The future of ship building will certainly be interesting to watch.

[tomko2]

i just got off the liberty and the captain charles had said that rccl is gonna make other radiance class ship and that liberty of the sea will be going to bayonne in 2012

 

A big YES for more Radiance Class ships but a big NO to moving the Liberty away from here.:eek:

 

Kathy

[klingoncruiser]

Interesting thread.

 

I for one would love more Radiance Class ships. RCL needs to move back toward some of the Gulf ports and they would be better served having somewhat smaller ships in those markets. (Not that 90K ton ships are small)

 

Here is a wish list....

 

A Radiance class ship that is nuclear powered. (No more diesel fuel) It could run for year without fuel and make long trips with no thought about "conserving fuel". Take the best of some of the new ideas and put them on board. Better itineraries! There are a LOT of people who go on a cruise for the ports, NOT the ships. (Gasp did I just say that out loud?:eek:)

 

These "officer" rumors always lead to a lot of hope and never pan out.

[Sunkissed Mommy]

I think they should survey the cruisers and make a ship with all of the elements that cruisers really like. For example, most seem to like the prominade and the radiance class, as well as flow riders and ice skating rinks. So why not make a ship the size of radiance, with the other elements and make the cabin choices simpler and cheaper????

 

 

You know I was thinking about that this morning as I was riding back home from the Port of Miami. Surveying the guests on what they like, for example: I LOVE the glass elevators facing the ocean on the Jewel & other Radiance Class ships and I wish they would put these on the newer ships!

[DEIx15x8]

I would love to see a Freedom Class ship with Nordic Empress style lobbies. It was great to be able to leave the room and walk down the hall to the giant stair well lobby with floor to ceiling windows and chairs. They should get rid of the rooms that line the sides of the forward and aft atriums and replace them with a lounge on every floor. Nothing fancy with bars or anything (though those new automated wine machines on the Oasis could be easy), just chairs and a great view. That's the main thing that has bothered me about the Voyager-Freedom classes. They have a hump but waste it on rooms. All that glass open to the atrium would probably also open the ship up to a lot more light and they could even turn the non glass elevators so that they are glass and travel through the lobbies.

[John Henry on CC]

Interesting thread.

 

I for one would love more Radiance Class ships. RCL needs to move back toward some of the Gulf ports and they would be better served having somewhat smaller ships in those markets. (Not that 90K ton ships are small)

 

Here is a wish list....

 

A Radiance class ship that is nuclear powered. (No more diesel fuel) It could run for year without fuel and make long trips with no thought about "conserving fuel". Take the best of some of the new ideas and put them on board. Better itineraries! There are a LOT of people who go on a cruise for the ports, NOT the ships. (Gasp did I just say that out loud?:eek:)

 

These "officer" rumors always lead to a lot of hope and never pan out.

 

 

Neeeeeeever gonna happen.

 

I have been at quite a few "Captain's Corners" and if there is one thing that they all say - you are NOT going to be seeing a nuclear-powered cruise ship.

 

Did you know that many countries BAN them from their harbors?

[Swath]

Solstice Class: Solstice

Occupancy: 2,850

Tonnage: 122,000

Length: 1,033 ft

Beam: 121 ft

Draught: 27 ft

Cruise Speed: 24 kts

Inaugural Date: 23 Nov 2008

 

Radiance Class: Brilliance

Maiden Voyage: July 19, 2002

Passenger Capacity: 2,501

Gross Tonnage: 90,090

Length: 962'

Beam: 105.6'

Draft: 26.7'

Cruising Speed: 25 knots

 

2850-2501= 349

It is NOT a big Difference in passengers and Not that much larger in size except for tonnage

Solstice is35% more than Radiance

 

 

[aloha of the seas]

I think what we are seeing here is everybody's dream. It probably is a good chance that there will not ever be a 3rd Oasis class ship, so everyone just wants to dream about what the next ship will be like.

 

Personally, I think a modified Radiance class ship to replace the aging Vision class ships could be a good reality. RCI needs smaller ships that can get into the ports in the expanding markets that they are entering into. Some of the big ships just don't cut it.