Double-dip recession is here? -airfares coming down?

[Aplmac]

Given the recent 'fabulous' financial world situation :cool:

complete with QE3 coming over the horizon (that's not a ship I'm talkin about..)

I'm thinking that perceived wealth and consumer spending will go down

and hopefully with it, so too will air fares!

 

-or am I talking out of my hat?

 

The price of Oil has also come down recently

not that that makes the slightest difference to airfares these days..

 

 

Any thoughts from those familiar with fluctuations in the industry?

[PennyAgain]

Air fares on average are not going to go down. You may see some 'jump on it quick' sales but those will go to the people who make a fast decision.

 

Our long range planning for company travel does not include a reduction in air fares for our budgeting.

[FlyerTalker]

IMO, if the economy tanks to the extent that air travel costs drop significantly, you will have far bigger issues than the price of your ticket.

[kenish]

Airfares are likely to go up if the economy hits another dip. Like any company, airlines are focused on maximizing profit and not revenue. Most of the airlines that survived post-9/11 as well as the GFC have figured out parking planes in the desert is better than fire-sale fares to fill otherwise empty seats. 20% of capacity has been removed since the pre-GFC economic peak.

 

If the economy severly tanks, my prediction is more airlines will disappear. The ones remaining will park more planes and cater to those who absolutely need to fly or have the coin to afford very high fares. Somewhat a flashback to the 60s where flying was not something most people could afford.

[gingerboo]

IMO, if the economy tanks to the extent that air travel costs drop significantly, you will have far bigger issues than the price of your ticket.

 

Great info. as usual, FlyerTalker! Thanks, and.....yikes!

[FlyerTalker]

Most of the airlines that survived post-9/11 as well as the GFC have figured out parking planes in the desert is better than fire-sale fares to fill otherwise empty seats. 20% of capacity has been removed since the pre-GFC economic peak.

Parking can work if you are the owner of the aircraft. If, OTOH, you have a fleet with many leased aircraft, you may not be able to park them economically. If lease payments can't be mitigated, it may be better to fly them than take the sure loss from payments on aircraft that never move. Much depends on the specific conditions of the leases, IMO, as well as the fuel and labor components of the cost equation.

[Aplmac]

Last year 2010, my wife and I got to/from JFK-New York (from Barbados)

for the equivalent of US$700 or less -for both of us.

American Airlines -Boeing 757

 

We did this twice --in early June and again in late October!

Had a great time -marvellous city!

 

So far this year, we've seen no similar deals

just wondering what happened that this year is different from last year.

 

We have a Carnival cruise to catch, out of Manhattan, on Oct. 8th.

September usually brings deals, as Summer closes out.

Maybe it's a bit early just yet..

 

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[Mr. Click]

typically we do see more sales right after Labor Day but that is tight timing for an Oct 8 departure. We are also seeing lots of ups and downs with oil prices and the fares that I normally watch seem to be swinging a day or two behind the price of oil....We can all talk about history and tradtions but nothing seems normal with airlines and airfares anymore, unless you consider fewer and fewer seats going anywhere normal.

[UKBayern]

I am sure you are hinting at the present state of the American economy. I have to disappoint you. The economy in many other countries is experiencing the highest growth in more than 20, if not 60, or ever, years. Think of Brazil, China, and many parts of Asia and Europe. Here in Germany, unemployment has hit an alltime low, and spending power has risen to an alltime high. I am in the tourist industry and up to this week the number of guests in our hotel has been more than in the whole of 2010. Audi is lacking 16000 workers to assemble their cars, so high is the worldwide demand at the moment.

 

If the demand on the route BGI-NYC is low, all AA will do is take those airplanes and fly extra services from NYC to Europe, Brazil or the Far East with it, or lease them to foreign airlines, where people have the money and the will to spend.

[Gloria Mundi]

One travel writer I follow (Joe Brancatelli) just pointed out last week that airlines are quietly cutting back on the number of flights. They'll do that before they start cutting fares, although you may see some last-minute deals. European airfares for next year were 25-30% higher than for this year in Business Class, so we just gave up and are going to Alaska next year instead.

[monicajay]

I'm thinking that perceived wealth and consumer spending will go down

and hopefully with it, so too will air fares!

 

 

 

Wishful thinking!

 

Some individual routes may experience drops. That is supply and demand working in the marketplace, but the overall trend will be an increase.

 

Just my 2 cents

[Aplmac]

One travel writer I follow (Joe Brancatelli) just pointed out last week

that airlines are quietly cutting back on the number of flights.

They'll do that before they start cutting fares,

although you may see some last-minute deals.

That seems to be what's happening on my route to JFK.

 

AA now thinks we wouldn't mind connecting thru hellhole MIA

but JetBlue still goes straight to JFK.

Guess who'll get my money?

[sandbug2]

I am booking a flight to Prague late November ( river cruise)- would you advise waiting til after labour day?

[Aplmac]

Two weeks ago, I was quoted Bds.$1104 per person

for JetBlue -Barbados to JFK.

 

Checking again today, I was quoted Bds. $927 per person

for JetBlue -Barbados to JFK. :)

Oh dear....looks like prices are dropping...

 

 

"Did I want to book now and pay within 24 hrs." she asked.

I said no, I'll wait another two weeks and see what gives, then.

What am I -stupid?

 

.

[AZDENNY]

Not coming down at all from what I was seeing. The flights I was looking at just kept going higher and higher each week....And this was 9 months in advance of the flight.

[Aplmac]

typically we do see more sales right after Labor Day

but that is tight timing for an Oct 8 departure.

Well boys and girls today is Labor Day

and I'm hoping for some slight action on the downward side this coming week.

 

I still haven't booked or paid, so we'll see what happens.

Time draweth nigh and I need to book soon

-will let you know what I eventually pay to get us to NYC and back

 

.

[EithneMay]

I am hoping to see prices drop after today (Labor Day) as I have to book 2 seats on flights from Michigan to San Juan for February. We have time to wait and watch, but I would LOVE to see them drop as it is currently about $1100 for flights, and these are not even direct flights!

[Taxguy77]

My DW is in Peru visiting and I had some medical problems, so she tried to get an earlier flight home. This was right after New York was closed for the storm. Continental's office was not answering the phone, so she went to the office. After a 3 hour wait in the crowd, she found the earliest seat on a flight was over a week out. She met a woman who had been rereouted to London, but she would be in planes and airports 4 days to get there. That's how tight planes are being booked now.

 

ps: My daughter was able to take care of me, Thank God for daughters.

[FlyerTalker]

I am hoping to see prices drop after today (Labor Day) as I have to book 2 seats on flights from Michigan to San Juan for February. We have time to wait and watch, but I would LOVE to see them drop

Can you give any reason for believing that the price of a ticket to a warm destination in February will be dropping? Yes, there are often sales after Labor Day, but you are missing one key point. They are usually for travel in the fall period (mid-Sept to early November) AND they are to places with lower demand. Yes, you can wait and watch. However, please ask yourself: "How unhappy will I be watching the price go even higher than it is now?" Be sure to let us know how the waiting works out.

[Fattony]

Ah, hope springs eternal. As bad as the economy is now, our recent flights (BUR-DFW, DFW-DTW, DTW-MDW, MDW-GSP)were generally full. The BUR-DFW flight was overbooked (we volunteered to get bumped but some people failed to show up so we were not needed). Disneyland was also very crowded.

 

BTW, we are in Brazil. Growth is continuing, but so is debt. Credit card debt is very high, despite interest rates that can be as high as nearly 200% per year.

[Aplmac]

I just did the deal two hrs. ago.

 

jet Blue, straight to JFK.

When I left home, it was local$ 926 each of us

-by the time I got there an hour later to swipe my card

she had us a deal for $ 860 each, instead! :)

(Divide those figures by 2 to get U.S.Dollar equiv.)

Not a bad price!

 

 

it's not what we got it for last year,mind you

but not bad for this year it would seem

 

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