An "average" flight cost in January?

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

I spend a good bit of time throughout the year in Florida, and I can assure you that demand to get there is indeed high in January. It may not be spring break yet, but Caribbean cruises are going full swing, and all the snowbirds who waited to spend holidays with family up north are finally flocking to their winter homes in Florida.

 

Ahh gotcha

 

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[6rugrats]

Perhaps, but not necessarily. By then the $281 tickets may well be long gone and the cheapest fares on the legacy airlines could be, say, $350 or more. At that point Southwest and Jet Blue can sell a ticket for $325 and be cheaper than anyone else at that time, but more expensive than you could have gotten now. Keep in mind that you're flying to Florida during peak season and demand will be generally high.

 

Totally agree; if I saw a price for only $281 RT, I'd purchase ASAP! I have no idea why everyone thinks Southwest or JetBlue are guaranteed to have lower fares.

Edited April 19, 2014 by 6rugrats

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

Totally agree; if I saw a price for only $281 RT, I'd purchase ASAP! I have no idea why everyone thinks Southwest or JetBlue are guaranteed to have lower fares.

 

Because I have always found better prices with southwest

 

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[Zach1213]

Because I have always found better prices with southwest

 

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But you can't always compare apples to apples. By the time Southwest becomes available, the other airlines have been available for several months. Let's say you wait for Southwest and they are charging $350, versus $400 on American. However, several months earlier, American was charging $250. Sure, Southwest is cheaper now, but you could have gotten the flight even cheaper if you had not waited for Southwest. I have seen this happen many times in my travels.

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

But you can't always compare apples to apples. By the time Southwest becomes available, the other airlines have been available for several months. Let's say you wait for Southwest and they are charging $350, versus $400 on American. However, several months earlier, American was charging $250. Sure, Southwest is cheaper now, but you could have gotten the flight even cheaper if you had not waited for Southwest. I have seen this happen many times in my travels.

 

Great point. I have heard the best time to buy flights are around 60 days out? I don't travel often. Maybe once a year or so. I do know the southwest buy on a Tuesday and fly on a Tuesday deal is pretty great. I must say $280 for Delta is pretty rare. So I may have to jump on this now.

Thanks everyone for the input.

 

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[edawn]

So I have a cruise booked at the near end of January out of Port Canaveral Florida.

I am either flying out of Boston or Manchester NH. I was starting to look at prices for flights and almost had a heart attack. I might as well just thumb it down to Florida with those prices. Average was $550-$600. REALLY???? YIKES!!!"

Has anyone from the northeast flown down to Florida in January? And do you find the prices to be cheaper?

Also when is really the best time to find the cheapest flights?

If they stay this high, I may just take the train down instead.

 

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I find that prices drop right at two months out from a flight. I read this on Clark Howard's website a few years ago and decided to watch a flight I needed to book. Just like clockwork the flight dropped exactly two months out.

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

I find that prices drop right at two months out from a flight. I read this on Clark Howard's website a few years ago and decided to watch a flight I needed to book. Just like clockwork the flight dropped exactly two months out.

 

Thanks for the info. I saw on the need about when the actual best times to book flights were somewhere around the 57-60 days out. However a $281 flight from Delta seems like a pretty great deal. Ugh I'm so torn.

Do I or don't I pull the trigger?

 

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[6rugrats]

I find that prices drop right at two months out from a flight. I read this on Clark Howard's website a few years ago and decided to watch a flight I needed to book. Just like clockwork the flight dropped exactly two months out.

No one can predict with any certainty when prices will be lowest. If they could, wouldn't everyone purchase tickets then? You are providing merely anecdotal evidence, which proves absolutely nothing.

 

I can purchase a ticket today for travel SEA-GOT next September for $568 RT. That's five months from now. I don't think the price is going down two months out.

 

However a $281 flight from Delta seems like a pretty great deal. Ugh I'm so torn.

Do I or don't I pull the trigger?

Well, you said in your first post that you were planning on paying $300.

Edited April 20, 2014 by 6rugrats

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

No one can predict with any certainty when prices will be lowest. If they could, wouldn't everyone purchase tickets then? You are providing merely anecdotal evidence, which proves absolutely nothing.

 

I can purchase a ticket today for travel SEA-GOT next September for $568 RT. That's five months from now. I don't think the price is going down two months out.

 

 

Well, you said in your first post that you were planning on paying $300.

 

Well this is what I had in planning. Pay the cruise off by first week of June. Then purchase flights in August. So that's why I'm a little torn in what to do. The other situation is two of us out of the 3 in our room have the $ now, where our 3rd traveler won't have it until October.

 

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[kenish]

Well this is what I had in planning. Pay the cruise off by first week of June. Then purchase flights in August. So that's why I'm a little torn in what to do. The other situation is two of us out of the 3 in our room have the $ now, where our 3rd traveler won't have it until October.

 

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I agree with others- $282 is a very good fare. The possibility it will drop to $260 is virtually zero, while the chance it will increase to $325 or more is almost a sure bet, IMHO.

 

If you choose to wait, set "strike prices". If the fare goes below the lower one, buy immediately. Set the higher price as the absolute max you're willing or able to pay (e.g. $350). If the fare goes above that point, buy immediately. Since you're "torn", this method lets the price make the decision for you.

 

The big risk is the fare could increase far above your upper limit...if the fare jumps from $282 to $375 (and it can in an instant), are you able to afford the much higher than planned fare?

 

Another tip- airfares tend to follow prices at your local gas station. I'm sure you're well aware of the latter :)

Edited April 21, 2014 by kenish

[waterbug123]

TI saw on the need about when the actual best times to book flights were somewhere around the 57-60 days out.

 

If that was the magic mark, then virtually all leisure travelers would wait until that point to buy tickets. The airlines, realizing that demand would thus be HUGE 60-ish days out, would drastically raise prices at that point, and that would be the end of the magic "always buy tix 60 days out formula." Are there anecdotal accounts of folks buying tickets at that point because the price suddenly dropped? Sure. There are also anecdotal accounts of prices going UP at that point, or never changing much, or dropping 30 days out instead of 60, or dropping 84.5 days out instead of 60 etc. Too many factors at play to assume that 60 is always going to be the magic number.

 

The other situation is two of us out of the 3 in our room have the $ now, where our 3rd traveler won't have it until October.

 

Is there some reason all 3 of you have to buy your airline tickets on the same day? As long as you all get to the ship does it matter if you buy tickets on the same day, or for that matter, does it even matter if you end up on the same flights?

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

If that was the magic mark, then virtually all leisure travelers would wait until that point to buy tickets. The airlines, realizing that demand would thus be HUGE 60-ish days out, would drastically raise prices at that point, and that would be the end of the magic "always buy tix 60 days out formula." Are there anecdotal accounts of folks buying tickets at that point because the price suddenly dropped? Sure. There are also anecdotal accounts of prices going UP at that point, or never changing much, or dropping 30 days out instead of 60, or dropping 84.5 days out instead of 60 etc. Too many factors at play to assume that 60 is always going to be the magic number.

 

 

 

Is there some reason all 3 of you have to buy your airline tickets on the same day? As long as you all get to the ship does it matter if you buy tickets on the same day, or for that matter, does it even matter if you end up on the same flights?

 

Yes because we're all traveling together

 

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[Zach1213]

Yes because we're all traveling together

 

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It would seem the me that that third person is SOL. It shouldn't cost you extra because that person doesn't have the money.

 

This has happened in my group of friends too. Three of us got our tickets to Vegas together (separate reservations but same flights). The fourth waited because he didn't have the money quite yet (was waiting for tax return I believe). When it came time to book, it was a crap shoot whether or not he would end up on the same flight as us, and if he would pay the same, more, or less than us. But I got the flight I wanted at the price I wanted, and it wasn't my fault he was not ready to purchase, so it shouldn't penalize me. In the end, he did get the same flight, albeit $40 more. That was $40 more I had to spend on drinks or at the sports book.

 

Recently, I DID wait on someone to book a trip to Africa, and it was a big mistake. Ended up costing my wife and I $300 extra for no good reason other than deciding to be nice and wait. Never again will I be nice when I know the flights I want and see the prices that I deem fair.

Edited April 21, 2014 by Zach1213

[6rugrats]

Yes because we're all traveling together

 

No, this is bad thinking. Why in the world should you pay more because this person does not have the money? There's no requirement people have to be on the same flight. I am guessing she's an adult and certainly could handle this simple domestic trip on her own, if she can't get on the same flight.

 

Let her buy her ticket when she has the money.

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

No, this is bad thinking. Why in the world should you pay more because this person does not have the money? There's no requirement people have to be on the same flight. I am guessing she's an adult and certainly could handle this simple domestic trip on her own, if she can't get on the same flight.

 

Let her buy her ticket when she has the money.

 

This is what I'm thinking too. Knowing @$281 from Delta is a steal, I'm just going to jump on it. And when she has it, she has it. She can always try and get a ticket on the same flight as us when she has the $$ available.

That's exactly what I was trying to do, just be nice and wait. It is just too risky to wait.

 

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[kenish]

That's exactly what I was trying to do, just be nice and wait. It is just too risky to wait.

 

General FYI, there's another issue buying as a group. You might be aware fares are in "buckets". The airline allocates a certain number of seats to each fare bucket. When the bucket sells out, the cheapest available bucket is more expensive. (The fares really don't increase or decrease, the availability changes as tickets are sold and the airline dynamically adjusts the supply in each bucket).

 

Now, for the issue...let's say a group of 6 is traveling together (the group size really doesn't matter). There is 1 seat available at $275, 2@ $325, and 12@ $375. The total fare for 6 friends is $2050. Is this evenly split 6 ways ($342 each)? That means 3 subsidize the other 3. If it's not evenly divided, who pays which fare?

 

Also the way airline websites work, if you enter a party of 6, it will show a $375 fare for everyone. You should check just one person to see if there are lower fares available (in this case $275 would show up). The easiest place to check is on ITA Matrix. Then book 1 or 2 at a time to access the lower fares.

 

Let us know when you book...from my experience planning for a very congenial group, it still works best to let everyone make their own purchases.

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

General FYI, there's another issue buying as a group. You might be aware fares are in "buckets". The airline allocates a certain number of seats to each fare bucket. When the bucket sells out, the cheapest available bucket is more expensive. (The fares really don't increase or decrease, the availability changes as tickets are sold and the airline dynamically adjusts the supply in each bucket).

 

Now, for the issue...let's say a group of 6 is traveling together (the group size really doesn't matter). There is 1 seat available at $275, 2@ $325, and 12@ $375. The total fare for 6 friends is $2050. Is this evenly split 6 ways ($342 each)? That means 3 subsidize the other 3. If it's not evenly divided, who pays which fare?

 

Also the way airline websites work, if you enter a party of 6, it will show a $375 fare for everyone. You should check just one person to see if there are lower fares available (in this case $275 would show up). The easiest place to check is on ITA Matrix. Then book 1 or 2 at a time to access the lower fares.

 

Let us know when you book...from my experience planning for a very congenial group, it still works best to let everyone make their own purchases.

 

Going to talk with my friends tonight and see what we're going to do.

Reading from everyones advice, I just can't say no to the $281 non stop flight from Boston. That's the cheapest I've ever seen from Delta. I usually see them around $350^ + for non stop flights.

 

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[waterbug123]

Yes because we're all traveling together

 

You're taking a cruise together. You don't need to fly to the port together.

 

This is what I'm thinking too. Knowing @$281 from Delta is a steal, I'm just going to jump on it. And when she has it, she has it. She can always try and get a ticket on the same flight as us when she has the $$ available.

That's exactly what I was trying to do, just be nice and wait. It is just too risky to wait.

 

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Glad to see you've decided to make the smart choice! At that price, it IS too risky to wait for your friend to save up the cash. :)

[waterbug123]

Going to talk with my friends tonight and see what we're going to do.

Reading from everyones advice, I just can't say no to the $281 non stop flight from Boston. That's the cheapest I've ever seen from Delta. I usually see them around $350^ + for non stop flights.

 

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As Kenish pointed out though, even if your friend gives in and says fine, buy all 3 tickets now, if you try to book all 3 at once, it's possible that the airline will not have 3 available at the $281 price. If the lowest price bucket at which 3 tickets are available is $350, it will give you a price of $1050. Personally, I'd just let your friends know that "Hey, I found a good rate so I went ahead and booked my flight today. Here are the details if you want to book the same one." They may or may not find the same rate you did at that point, but you'll stand the best chance of actually getting to book that $281 ticket, assuming of course that it's still available now. ;)

[TropicalIslandGirl1981]

I have been monitoring it daily :-)

Delta is the only one at that low rate, other lines are at $350+

So I say that is a pretty fair deal.

I do however remember that with delta you are assigned seats. Since two of us are buying now and the others at a later date are we able to get our seats together if we call?

We're flying in together because we will be staying with my aunt the day prior. I don't want to have her make two trips to the airport. She is about 50 outside of Orlando and to take a cab/shuttle would be a bit expensive.

 

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[Zach1213]

I have been monitoring it daily :-)

Delta is the only one at that low rate, other lines are at $350+

So I say that is a pretty fair deal.

I do however remember that with delta you are assigned seats. Since two of us are buying now and the others at a later date are we able to get our seats together if we call?

We're flying in together because we will be staying with my aunt the day prior. I don't want to have her make two trips to the airport. She is about 50 outside of Orlando and to take a cab/shuttle would be a bit expensive.

 

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It's likely you'll be able to sit together, yes. You don't necessarily need to call. Just say "I booked 27A, you book B, you book C"

[kenish]

I have been monitoring it daily :-)

Delta is the only one at that low rate, other lines are at $350+

So I say that is a pretty fair deal.

 

Be aware this fare (like any fare) can disappear literally in an instant. This routinely happens when a fare sells out or the airline pulls the remaining inventory at that fare. While you "overthink" this, the risk gets higher and higher the $282 fare will go away, especially since other airlines are already at $350. Why would DL keep the $282 fare instead of bumping it up to $340?

 

My gut feel may be totally wrong, but right now my gut says the fare will vanish anytime from right now through Tuesday evening. Of course if I were 90% accurate at predicting fares I could quit my day job!

Edited April 22, 2014 by kenish

[nonnie&dgd]

I have been monitoring it daily :-)

Delta is the only one at that low rate, other lines are at $350+

So I say that is a pretty fair deal.

I do however remember that with delta you are assigned seats. Since two of us are buying now and the others at a later date are we able to get our seats together if we call?

We're flying in together because we will be staying with my aunt the day prior. I don't want to have her make two trips to the airport. She is about 50 outside of Orlando and to take a cab/shuttle would be a bit expensive.

 

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Delta charges for checked bags. Make sure you add that to the airfare.

[kenish]

@Tropicalisland- Have you booked your ticket? I hope so. I came across a saved search and noticed the $282 fare went away Tuesday afternoon. Now, everything leaving the Thursday before and returning the Monday after the cruise is $325+ with very inconvenient schedules. Let us know how it turned out

[Bowie MeMe]

I do this route all the time because I have daughter in Ft. Lauderdale. I have been going to Miami for family since 1965 so I have tried just about everything!

 

Number 1. Go Weds/Thursday/ possibly Sat. AM and Tues PM. Believe me when cold northerners come down for the big ships that run Sat. to Sat. and Sun. to Sun. the price goes up to the $500 range and they sell out quickly. As retiree I can handle this and daughter just sucks up that we come for a full week for a weekend event. Look at what else is going on! Food and Wine week, major concert, Nascar races, I always get caught by Orange Bowl because DGD has birthday in early Jan. From Boston put an alert on Jet Blue. You catch a sale and it is very lovely. Watch for Southwest sales if you have them. Leave plenty of space so you don't miss your cruise. Boston in late Jan as you know is begging for delays. Florida gets impacted because of weather all over the country -- planes get in the wrong place for the flights. Don't wait too long after seeing the budget lines open for sale -- it gets worse not better --especially if it is cold and nasty on the east coast or anyplace else. Consider flying to another city and then connecting (I'm thinking Jacksonville or maybe Tampa) Miami and FLL both work for either port.

 

OH OH. Is the weekend you are flying MLK weekend? If so $500 roundtrip is a good fare. Get lots of points and then can take a free ride later when no one wants to go to Florida (like August) As my SIL says (he manages a large hotel) we make our money in January and February. Those months are the cake and the rest is the frosting.