Who owns RCL stock???

[ceewest]

I'm curious to those who own RCL stock where do you feel RCL is headed over the (1) next 6 month period, (2) 1 year period, (3) 5 year period? This website is great for knowing in-depth information about RCL actions, intentions, and general service. Seeing as we are all members of this board I would assume we are all generally well informed regarding Royal Caribbean's future progress.

 

Things to consider (Pro's):

1. RCL is class leading in innovations

2. Several Ultra-Voyager ships in the pipeline

3. Increased popularity in cruising over the past year or two

4. Trading at relative high over a 5 year chart

5. Average PE Ratio (16.40)

6. Small short % of float (5.9%)

7. Healthy net income of $546.52 million

 

Con's:

1. Oil prices makes RCL want to cry

2. Carnival planning to make their own ultra-voyager ships (07' or 08'??)

3. Trading near 52 weak low (41.88 as of 9/9/05)

4. Low profit margin compared to CCL (11.57 vs. 19.91% respectively)

5. Negative free cash flow (~ $647 million)

 

All numbers were pulled from yahoo finance

 

So, what say you?

[CruisinCouple]

I plan to stick it out. We buy our stocks in our portfolio for the long haul. Short term iterations do not bother me. We have only had the stock for about 1 year. I always give it some time. Looking at a very short period of time makes any stock look volatile. Ride the wave all companies have problems and bumps in the road now and then and they are going through theirs now. Stock is down so....... Buy Buy Buy in a few months... Years.. it will be back and then some. Then the shares you bought today at the low end will be that much more profitable. RIde the wave up not down.

[OceanCruise]

Think positive--it will go up, it will go up (we can only hope!)

[AFT_LOVER]

compared to the onboard credits for EVERY cruise you book. Within 10 years you have made back what you paid for it if you do 2 - 2 week cruises a year ($500 a year) and that is tax free money! Then add to that the credits for VISA or AMEX, and onboard purchases of cruises. That works out to $1300 a year tax free again.

 

Our portfolio is long haul also. Some of the stocks were gifts from new companies that we happened to visit & when they hit over $100 & split, we now have a nice spread. Some we turned into IRA's so if they split again the stock count climbs.

[bmr12]

The other tidbits to add to the OP's analysis that I've been considering:

• RCI is second in market share to Carnival by a hefty margin, which means that they could be on the losing end of a price war due to fewer ships across which to spread fixed costs; and
  
• They have a lot of debt, which restricts their flexibility in responding to other ideas.
  

Despite these, I'm considering buying the 100 shares needed to get the discounts going forward hoping that the discounts will at least offset the potential capital loss...

[abridalmaven]

When we told the guy who managed our retirement funds to buy it, he was at first skeptical, but later had glowing reports on it. But mainly we bought it for the ship credits, which as MACOP, stated pays for it . But I do think it is a progressive company!

 

And here is another thought, since travel costs via plane will soar, cruising from local ports will increase, after all a vacation with no worry about extra transportation will increase cruising , at least I think so!

[kenandlaura06]

We think the stock will do well in the coming years.

[ceewest]

The other tidbits to add to the OP's analysis that I've been considering:

• RCI is second in market share to Carnival by a hefty margin, which means that they could be on the losing end of a price war due to fewer ships across which to spread fixed costs; and
  
• They have a lot of debt, which restricts their flexibility in responding to other ideas.
  

Despite these, I'm considering buying the 100 shares needed to get the discounts going forward hoping that the discounts will at least offset the potential capital loss...

To put some numbers to those statements:

Total Debt ($4.73b) vs. Net Income ($546.52m)

Current Ratio of .281 OUCH! (Granted it's based off of current assets. I would love to see a debt to asset ratio)

edit: Their free cash flow proves just how much debt they are paying. $1.14b from operations but drop to -$6.47m after financing and investing activities and I highly doubt they have substantial investing activities.

 

And here is another thought, since travel costs via plane will soar, cruising from local ports will increase, after all a vacation with no worry about extra transportation will increase cruising , at least I think so!

You theory is a bit flawed. Cruise prices are not exclusive to rising commodity cost (especially oil). Thus, airfare will rise but so will the cost of cruising, possibly pricing some groups out of their range. In addition, the overall amount of people who live remotely close to a port of origin is extremely small (don't forget those strange states in the middle somewhere :D).

 

I think I might jump in just to take advantage of the stockholder perks. Some quick math:

Price per share ($41.88) * minimum shareholder advantage purchase (100)= $4,188

 

What are the typical shareholder benefits to cover a potential 20% loss (~$800) (hypothetical personal thresh-hold)?

 

Chris

[Nanannjen]

There is an article in this week's Barron's (9/12 edition) recommending Carnival and RCL - they feel that both are oversold - target price for both is $60 - $65. Many reasons why - very interesting article.

[ceewest]

What are the typical shareholder benefits?

 

Just curious what they are and what you have used as a shareholder?

[Linda/Ohio]

They offer shipboard credit. I think it is $50 for a 5 day or shorter cruise, it goes to $100 for a 7, etc. It can be used more than once-I have used it 4 times in 12 months.

[familycruzer]

Has anyone used sharebuilder to buy stocks? I dont have a lot of money to invest at one time but thought I could do a small amount at a time with sharebuiler.

[jimiam]

How do you know if you received your credit. I faxed all my information in two weeks ago, but my travel doc. were sent out a day earlier.

[dlhamlten]

I mailed my documentation in and never heard back from them. I had my TA call and they said the Credit was on my Account.

 

I have been told in other Threads that if you submit the documentation ELECTRONICALLY that you will get an EMail recognition. Apparently, they don't send out letters saying " Thanks for being a loyal shareholder and here is your money. "

 

Did you provide them with your Email address ?

 

You can try to log on to their Website with your Booking # and see if it has been entered there. I was able to do this with Princess / Carnival Shareholder credits. Otherwise, have your TA or you call the Royal Caribbean number to check your Account.

 

I am sure you will get the Credit even if the final sailing docs have been mailed out, so enjoy !

[loudbmw]

I have all bases covered - I own both Carnival and Royal Caribbean stock. With us taking 2 to 3 cruises a year it works out well for us.

 

In terms of investment - Carnival is up a ton from when we bought it, RCL down (bad timing on my part). In addition to the on-board credit which we have allways received, both stocks pay a modest dividend.

 

I'm happy.

 

Lou

[Case1096]

I have RCL as part of my IRA, so I am in it for the long haul. As everyone has stated, tax free dividend for on board credit is great. Sending in your info is easy, I just scanned everything in and emailed it to them. The very next day I received a reply confirming my credit. I actually received two responses from my most recent email, but I'm guessing I won't be lucky enough for them to double credit my account!

[kc320]

familycruizer, I used Sharebuilder to buy my now *100* shares of RCL. I like the fact they have no minimum investment and that you can have a set amount invested each week, month or quarter however you prefer. And only $4 a trade. It took me nearly 2 years to get to 100 shares but now I am going to start enjoying all that shipboard credit!!:D

[AFT_LOVER]

$250 - 14+ nts

200 - 9-13 nts

100 - 6-8 nts

50 - 5 or less nts

 

 

Sure is better than the $13 dividend that you pay taxes on 4 times a year = $42 (that is a tank of gas for FREE, as of last week)..........

[pokyd]

I was reading the company website recently and it mentions a specific date of ownership for the "perks" - something like April 2005. Does anyone know if people who bought the stock after that period still get that benefit? I've been thinking of buying but won't if new stockholders don't get the discount. Any help will be appreciated.

[jimiam]

I looked at the company annual report and only says the the credit is for sailing up to may 1 2006 and does not mention any date that they have to be purchased by.

[dlhamlten]

They must have confidence in their future. The Company announced this morning an increase of over 15 % in their quarterly Dividend Rate.

 

From 13 cents to 15 cents.

[kc320]

I was reading the company website recently and it mentions a specific date of ownership for the "perks" - something like April 2005. Does anyone know if people who bought the stock after that period still get that benefit? I've been thinking of buying but won't if new stockholders don't get the discount. Any help will be appreciated.

 

You do get the same perks even if you bought the stock after the date mentioned. I had wondered about that & emailed them, there reply was they wanted people to use their most recent Stockholders Statement when apply for the shipboard credits. I purchased the last of my 100 shares in Aug & faxed my statement to my TA the 1st of Sept. Hopefully I'll have my $50 credit on the Empress. I'll be taking a copy of my statement with me just in case there are any problems.

[Brahmama]

Can you give me an email or fax number that I can send my Stockholder Statement to? Is there any other form required to send along with it?

Thanks,

Carol

[janrj7]

Hey Carol, how are you and Will doing?

 

re: the stock, email ShareholderBenefit@rccl.com with the info they need (see below) and you'll get an email back from Tensi Westreicher confirming your onboard credit.

 

Here's the info to send:

• A photocopy of your shareholder proxy card or a current brokerage

> statement

> showing proof of ownership of at least 100 shares of Royal Caribbean

> Cruises Ltd.

> • Your name (the owner of the 100 shares will receive the onboard

> credit)

> • Your home address and telephone number and e-mail address

> • Your ship and sailing date

> • Your confirmation number

> • Your Captain’s Club or Crown & Anchor Society Number (if any)

 

Regards,

Jan (from the Connie T/A last year, remember us?)

[Brahmama]

Sure I remember you! And Joe. And Beryl and Vance from the UK> (Hope I got that right...)

 

Thanks for all the info - just what I needed.

 

Tell Joe that we cancelled the SA about 3 years ago, so he must have got hold of an O L D post of mine.

 

We were thinking of you down there in south LA and hoping all was well with you and your family.

 

Where are you going next?

 

Carol