Quest -22 September

[conchyjoe]

For any folks on the 22 September Quest voyage from Montreal to Montreal - this voyage could get interesting with the arrival of Hurricane Fiona.

Undoubtably there will be some port/schedule adjustments. I really hope so, no way I would want to be on the east side of Newfoundland with 48 foot seas!

 

http://stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height

[CalmSea]

May be that is why on the Seabourn Source App,  I am seeing that the iternary for September 25 have been changed from just a "Sea Day" to a "Scenic cruising of the Saguenay Fjord". This change is odd because we will be in Hauve St. Pierre on September 24, and going to the Saguenay Fjord will be a backtrack towards the direction of Quebec City. However, the iternary for the remainder of the cruise is not changed. Maybe more to come later?

[conchyjoe]

Something else will have to change because going back to Saguenay from St. Havre Pierre is about 17 hours at top speed and they are not going to do the Saguenay Fjord in darkness. I’m sure some major operational juggling is going on in Seattle.

[conchyjoe]

The only way I can see them getting back on schedule is to cancel the call to St. John’s and move the call to Anse aux Meadows later. They won’t want to cancel the latter entirely since it is a UNESCO World Heritage Site. Fortunately, the Quest was the last ship scheduled to call there this year, so no conflict with other ships and ice conditions remain good (or bad, depending on how you view it).

[CalmSea]

The latest Stormsurf model  shows the remains of Fione north of Newfoundland by the evening of 25 Sept. The long range weather forecast for L'anse aux Meadows for 26 Sept is sunny with wind at 28 km per hour from the west. May be Quest itinary doesn't have to be changed after all.

[conchyjoe]

I don’t think the published weather forecasts for cities have had Fiona factored in yet.

St. John’s for instance, the Weather Channel shows 20mph wind on the 25th. That is unlikely to be the case.

Second problem for L’Anse aux Meadows  on 26th even if the wind numbers you saw are correct is that it is a tender port. It takes a few days for the seas to die down after the storm passage itself.

Third problem is how much damage to infrastructure did the storm surge cause.

I pray that is not the case for the sake of the people of Newfoundland but the potential for significant destruction certainly exists with this storm.

 

[Roland4]

1 hour ago, conchyjoe said:

I don’t think the published weather forecasts for cities have had Fiona factored in yet.

St. John’s for instance, the Weather Channel shows 20mph wind on the 25th. That is unlikely to be the case.

Second problem for L’Anse aux Meadows  on 26th even if the wind numbers you saw are correct is that it is a tender port. It takes a few days for the seas to die down after the storm passage itself.

Third problem is how much damage to infrastructure did the storm surge cause.

I pray that is not the case for the sake of the people of Newfoundland but the potential for significant destruction certainly exists with this storm.

 

I tend to agree Fiona is not factored in. The Weather Network, up here in Canada, forecasts for L'Anse aux Meadows and St. John's have not changed significantly in the last 4 - 5 days. The Weather Network anticipates Fiona will strengthen to a Cat 3 major hurricane as it tracks north from the Outer Bahamas. While it is still too early for a timeline, their model track lines all seem to be pointing at the Avalon Peninsula and St. John's!

[conchyjoe]

[Astride]

I have been on the same cruise 4 years ago. Believe me you don't want to be sailing on the western side of Newfoundland either when the waters of the Gulf of St-Lawrence push you northwards past Havre-St-Pierre towards St-Anthony's & L'Anse-au-Meadows during a storm. Experienced hurricane winds the highest on the Beaufort Scale. I & several crew members thought we were toast. I actually thought the ship was breaking up during the night. I tried to reach my closet on all fours in order to put on warm clothes in case of the need to abandon ship but couldn't reach it. Granted I was 70 years old at the time & so perhaps less agile. Everything inside my cabin rolled. My glass shower door kept banging open & shut but I couldn't reach it to put a towel against it. I opened my drapes to see what was going on outside & saw nothing but a giant wall of water hitting my patio door. The next morning breakfast was only available in one venue because of broken dishes. Never again!

[conchyjoe]

Yes, as a former professional mariner and having done several major storms before,

I can appreciate (and frankly fear) your observations. The Quest won’t be circumnavigating Newfoundland this time around. 

[DaveA]

Very reassuring, thank you. Wish us luck!

[CalmSea]

The weather network discussed the possible track of Fiona.  It can range from turning north with a direct hit around Hauve St. Pierre, to curving east and bypass Atlantic Canada completely.

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/news/article/storm-that-died-in-the-bering-sea-could-draw-hurricane-fiona-towards-canada

[conchyjoe]

The NHC seems to be going with the slingshot option as the jet stream picks up Fiona.

Note the distance travelled between 8.00am Friday and 8.00am Saturday.

Stormsurf shows the seas to east of Newfoundland down to 4-6 feet by Monday.

So who knows.

 

[CalmSea]

It looks like St Pierre and Miquelon may be worse off than St. John's. By Thursday 22 Sept, the track of Fiona should be more certain. I trust the Quest captaina and Seabourn would know what to do. 

[conchyjoe]

The H dot is merely representative and this far out the errors can me major.

On the present track it puts St. John’s on the “dirty” side of the storm so few in NFL will be totally immune. That said, as with all hurricanes, just being 50 or 60 miles away from the centre can have a huge impact on the amount of wind damage and that is what we experienced in Dorian back in 2019 which had a very small eye and was incredibly powerful at the centre eye walls with gusts up to 230mph. Just 60 miles away they just had a very breezy day.

 

The problem with Newfoundland is that as the storm passes over substantially cooler water it looses strength quickly. The storm surge however has already been created and will travel across the ocean towards Newfoundland and across shallower water (think breaking waves on a beach). The storm surge will probably be the major impact on  coastal communities.

 

One last note, if you are on this voyage; pack some very warm clothes, hat and gloves. Wind goes anti-clockwise around a low pressure area (hurricane) which means that it will be coming from the Great White North and it will be cold.

 

 

[kjbacon]

The forecast is not good this morning with Fiona. Are there any options available for this cruise itinerary? We were just there and it doesn’t seem like there’s much wiggle room.

[CalmSea]

I hope we do wait out the storm. As for wiggle room, one possibility is to do Trois Rivieres  and Quebec City on the way out instead of on the way back to Montreal. That would delay the arrival at Hauve St. Pierre to Monday. But then, on the return portion, there will be a long trip from Cap-Aux-Meules back to Montreal. I don't know if we can make it in 2 days.  I am glad I don't have the headache of rescheduling the itinary. 

[Wendy The Wanderer]

On 9/18/2022 at 7:19 PM, Astride said:

I have been on the same cruise 4 years ago. Believe me you don't want to be sailing on the western side of Newfoundland either when the waters of the Gulf of St-Lawrence push you northwards past Havre-St-Pierre towards St-Anthony's & L'Anse-au-Meadows during a storm. Experienced hurricane winds the highest on the Beaufort Scale. I & several crew members thought we were toast. I actually thought the ship was breaking up during the night. ...

We were on that cruise as well, and I remember that night well. I do hope this year's itinerary is not seriously disrupted, and I hope the region escapes the wrath of Fiona! Loved that itinerary.

[Roland4]

The Weather Network now says the models have narrowed and there is medium-to-high confidence that Fiona will track across the Gulf of St. Lawrence on a line form Nova Scotia to Newfoundland and it will be a Cat 3/4 when it gets there. Beyond the winds, the biggest problems will be the 30+ foot waves and the almost 100+ MM of rain that will fall across the entire Gulf. This could make everything from Havre-St Pierre to Cap-Aux-Mueles off limits! I fully expect a notification from Seabourn today or tomorrow with a major change to the itinerary! I wonder if Quest is low enough to get under the bridges/hydro wires into Lake Ontario?? 🙂😮

[Emdee]

2 hours ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

We were on that cruise as well, and I remember that night well. I do hope this year's itinerary is not seriously disrupted, and I hope the region escapes the wrath of Fiona! Loved that itinerary.

We are booked on the Dover to Montreal on the Quest next year and hope to go…health permitting. 

[Emdee]

1 hour ago, Roland4 said:

The Weather Network now says the models have narrowed and there is medium-to-high confidence that Fiona will track across the Gulf of St. Lawrence on a line form Nova Scotia to Newfoundland and it will be a Cat 3/4 when it gets there. Beyond the winds, the biggest problems will be the 30+ foot waves and the almost 100+ MM of rain that will fall across the entire Gulf. This could make everything from Havre-St Pierre to Cap-Aux-Mueles off limits! I fully expect a notification from Seabourn today or tomorrow with a major change to the itinerary! I wonder if Quest is low enough to get under the bridges/hydro wires into Lake Ontario?? 🙂😮

May be a Great Lakes cruise instead. A friend did it on Viking and loved it though her flight to Thunder Bay was canceled and she had to get there via Winnipeg.

[Wendy The Wanderer]

1 hour ago, Emdee said:

May be a Great Lakes cruise instead. A friend did it on Viking and loved it though her flight to Thunder Bay was canceled and she had to get there via Winnipeg.

I've been following this new cruise to see how it does.  There is a certain appeal to boarding in Toronto!

[indigosea]

7 hours ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

We were on that cruise as well, and I remember that night well. I do hope this year's itinerary is not seriously disrupted, and I hope the region escapes the wrath of Fiona! Loved that itinerary.

Help!  We are going on a hurricane cruise. Flying to Montreal tomorrow hope we visit you in Toronto instead but would like the Saguenay idea too. 

[Sunprince]

The current track…not good for the region’s cruise ship itineraries.  We have spent the summer at our second home in Nova Scotia and will stay.  We have been through hurricanes before, both here and in Bermuda.  We have started to prepare by putting away outdoor furniture, and trying to save/ prepare our flower gardens which are in full bloom. Let’s hope the track moves east.  There is no wiggle room for cruise lines to avoid this storm based on the current track.

 

[Astride]

7 hours ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

We were on that cruise as well, and I remember that night well. I do hope this year's itinerary is not seriously disrupted, and I hope the region escapes the wrath of Fiona! Loved that itinerary.

Hi, Wendy. I think I do remember you from that infamous cruise. Was your mother with you?