Advantages Of Buying Rci Stock?

[xpcdoojk]

New 52-week low today. Who says you can't predict the market? :D :cool:

 

Predicting the market to move up or down is like betting on the pass line in craps. Pretty much 50/50 which way it will move. :rolleyes:

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

Predicting the market to move up or down is like betting on the pass line in craps. Pretty much 50/50 which way it will move. :rolleyes:

 

jc

 

But predicting RCL stock moving up or down is more like betting that a 13 will not be rolled in craps.

[xpcdoojk]

So, you are saying that the chanceof RCI stock going up is exactly zero....

 

Me thinks you overstate things to a great degree....

 

That tells me that everyone in the huge funds that didn't sell the RCI stock is dumber than you...

 

Because if the stock can only move in one direction then the fund managers that hold RCI are just stupid.... not to mention your fellow forum members

 

I know it is fun to be a contrarian in this forum and to look like you are the smartest guy in the room... but ...

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

So, you are saying that the chanceof RCI stock going up is exactly zero....

 

Me thinks you overstate things to a great degree....

 

That tells me that everyone in the huge funds that didn't sell the RCI stock is dumber than you...

 

Because if the stock can only move in one direction then the fund managers that hold RCI are just stupid.... not to mention your fellow forum members

 

I know it is fun to be a contrarian in this forum and to look like you are the smartest guy in the room... but ...

 

jc

 

I would hardly say that believing that a travel related stock is going down further is this economic environment is being a contrarian (though believing that it is going up might be). I also would not say there is 0% chance of it going up, but feel pretty confident that it will continue trending downwards for the time being. And many of the fellow forum members have posted they too feel that way; probably more so than the number of forum members who believe the stock is heading up.

[xpcdoojk]

I would hardly say that believing that a travel related stock is going down further is this economic environment is being a contrarian (though believing that it is going up might be). I also would not say there is 0% chance of it going up, but feel pretty confident that it will continue trending downwards for the time being. And many of the fellow forum members have posted they too feel that way; probably more so than the number of forum members who believe the stock is heading up.

 

 

Well then I wouldn't want to play craps with you, because based on what you posted was that you could roll a 13. Either that or you said that there is zero chance of the stock going up. One or both of those statements is false... your choice.:D I know both are false.:rolleyes:

 

Again, if the trend is absolute no doubt no-brainer as you seem to believe then again all of the fund managers are dumber than you. Because the price would be in free fall and it is not. So most of those dumb fund managers (remember you are the one that said only the big institutional funds control the price and that us individual peons don't count at all) are foolishly still buying the stock at the reduced prices, again the proof of this is that the value of the stock hasn't crashed. At some point this negative trend will either result in a crash of the stock, or some new smart people will realize that the stock (which is the market evaluation of the company's worth) is worth more than the other smart people think and they will buy the stock, ending this inevitable trend.

 

So Gonzo is the actual value of RCI junk or does it have intrinsic value? Because reading all of your posts makes me think that RCI must be junk.

 

jc

[MakinGold]

Well then I wouldn't want to play craps with you, because based on what you posted was that you could roll a 13. Either that or you said that there is zero chance of the stock going up. One or both of those statements is false... your choice.:D I know both are false.:rolleyes:

 

Again, if the trend is absolute no doubt no-brainer as you seem to believe then again all of the fund managers are dumber than you. Because the price would be in free fall and it is not. So most of those dumb fund managers (remember you are the one that said only the big institutional funds control the price and that us individual peons don't count at all) are foolishly still buying the stock at the reduced prices, again the proof of this is that the value of the stock hasn't crashed. At some point this negative trend will either result in a crash of the stock, or some new smart people will realize that the stock (which is the market evaluation of the company's worth) is worth more than the other smart people think and they will buy the stock, ending this inevitable trend.

 

So Gonzo is the actual value of RCI junk or does it have intrinsic value? Because reading all of your posts makes me think that RCI must be junk.

 

jc

 

Speaking of people who will argue just to try to make themselves sound smart . . . .

 

I don't think anyone suggested that RCI stock has no intrinsic value. It's quite possible that the comment about rolling a 13 in craps was just slightly tongue-in-cheek. :rolleyes:

 

It's a tough time for travel stocks, so thinking they'll trend down is pretty logical. Most will probably eventually go back up (unless they go bankrupt), but obviously opinions differ as to when that will happen.

[Gonzo70]

Again, if the trend is absolute no doubt no-brainer as you seem to believe then again all of the fund managers are dumber than you. Because the price would be in free fall and it is not. So most of those dumb fund managers (remember you are the one that said only the big institutional funds control the price and that us individual peons don't count at all) are foolishly still buying the stock at the reduced prices, again the proof of this is that the value of the stock hasn't crashed. At some point this negative trend will either result in a crash of the stock, or some new smart people will realize that the stock (which is the market evaluation of the company's worth) is worth more than the other smart people think and they will buy the stock, ending this inevitable trend.

 

So Gonzo is the actual value of RCI junk or does it have intrinsic value? Because reading all of your posts makes me think that RCI must be junk.

 

jc

 

Wow, you are more misinformed about this topic than I previously thought. I don't know where to begin addressing your misconceptions, but will try:

 

1: The 13 on craps was a semi-joke. Although the chance is not 100% that RCL continues trending down, I was making that comment as a metaphor indicating that I am rather confident that it will continue to trend downwards for the time being. I sold in the 40s and have been consistently predicting since that time that it will keep going down and so far I have been right to the tune of $16 per share.

 

2: Many would say that the stock has been crashing. It is down nearly 40% in the past few months.

 

3: Feeling confident that RCL is not done going down in no way implies that I feel smarter than the managers of the big institutions. As I said, the stock is down nearly 40% in a very short period of time, so many, many managers have been selling large quanitities of the stock.

 

4: Predicting that a stock will continue going down in no way implies a belief that a company has no intrinsic value; it simply implies that one feels the company's stock is overpriced. RCL's earnings are shrinking due to high fuel, high food, passengers having less discretionary money, and some passengers no longer wanting to fly along with other lesser issues. These are problems that are not likely to go away anytime soon. Although RCL still has value, I think that the stock price has yet to fully reflect the dire situation.

 

I hope that clears things up for you. You may want to invest (no pun intended) in a good book on the basics of the stock market if you are interested in learning more on this topic.

[Gonzo70]

I don't think anyone suggested that RCI stock has no intrinsic value. It's quite possible that the comment about rolling a 13 in craps was just slightly tongue-in-cheek. :rolleyes:

 

It's a tough time for travel stocks, so thinking they'll trend down is pretty logical.

 

Exactly; well spoken. :)

[xpcdoojk]

Wow, you are more misinformed about this topic than I previously thought. I don't know where to begin addressing your misconceptions, but will try:

 

1: The 13 on craps was a semi-joke. Although the chance is not 100% that RCL continues trending down, I was making that comment as a metaphor indicating that I am rather confident that it will continue to trend downwards for the time being. I sold in the 40s and have been consistently predicting since that time that it will keep going down and so far I have been right to the tune of $16 per share.

 

2: Many would say that the stock has been crashing. It is down nearly 40% in the past few months.

 

3: Feeling confident that RCL is not done going down in no way implies that I feel smarter than the managers of the big institutions. As I said, the stock is down nearly 40% in a very short period of time, so many, many managers have been selling large quanitities of the stock.

 

4: Predicting that a stock will continue going down in no way implies a belief that a company has no intrinsic value; it simply implies that one feels the company's stock is overpriced. RCL's earnings are shrinking due to high fuel, high food, passengers having less discretionary money, and some passengers no longer wanting to fly along with other lesser issues. These are problems that are not likely to go away anytime soon. Although RCL still has value, I think that the stock price has yet to fully reflect the dire situation.

 

I hope that clears things up for you. You may want to invest (no pun intended) in a good book on the basics of the stock market if you are interested in learning more on this topic.

 

Calling me ill informed does not make your arguements any more correct. I am not going to try to tell you of what my qualifications are on this topic as that would simply be self-serving and anyone on the internet can say they are anything, but on this topic I do know what I am talking about, and I have scars of real life and gradual school to prove them to my satisfaction.

 

Everyday when the market closes, each stock that is sold is also bought. So, one person thinks that the market is moving in one direction and the other disagrees. That is what makes the market work.

 

The value of the stock (without insider trading) represents the entire knowledge about the stock. In other words the price of the stock right now reflects all known information about the market and the value of the company. The fact that the price of fuel is increasing is clearly known by all elements in the market. The belief by many that we are in a recession is, also, known (Note I didn't say we are in a recession but that people believe we are). These things are all known today, so unless there is a new bit of knowledge there is no reason for the market to go up or down tomorrow. Of course, there is new information in the market everyday, and the lemmings in the stock market may drive down the value of any given stock (or drive it up) based on something as incongruent as a report by some previously unknown environmental think tank that declares on a fax to the garbage spewing talking heads on tv that the sky is falling in Tibet or a rumor that RCI is about to invent a cold fusion reactor that will make their cruise ships get a bazillion miles to the gallon in 10 years. Or it can be an actual bit of information about the change in price in oil or the exchange rate of the dollar.

 

So, the market may indeed go down for a considerable time, but to assume that the market is going down tomorrow because of what you knew yesterday is foolish. But you know it is going down, and I am very happy for you to have knowledge of tomorrow today. Be sure to buy that lottery ticket tonight! :D

 

Do you realize how condescending and presumptive it is to tell someone that you don't know that they should invest in a good book on the stock market is? :rolleyes:

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

Calling me ill informed does not make your arguements any more correct. I am not going to try to tell you of what my qualifications are on this topic as that would simply be self-serving and anyone on the internet can say they are anything, but on this topic I do know what I am talking about, and I have scars of real life and gradual school to prove them to my satisfaction.

 

So, the market may indeed go down for a considerable time, but to assume that the market is going down tomorrow because of what you knew yesterday is foolish. But you know it is going down, and I am very happy for you to have knowledge of tomorrow today. Be sure to buy that lottery ticket tonight! :D

 

Do you realize how condescending and presumptive it is to tell someone that you don't know that they should invest in a good book on the stock market is? :rolleyes:

 

jc

 

Wow, perhaps it is time to return to gradual school; your rants are becoming more non-sensical by the post. If you were correct, investing in the stock market really would be no different than playing the lottery. You are assuming that at each moment in time a company's stock price is perfectly priced for the exact current conditions of the company and all that is expected to occur in the future for the company. That however is far from the truth. Nearly anyone with market experience will tell you that some stocks are overvalued and some are undervalued. Yes, the price of oil is known, but I do not think that the ramifications are fully built into to RCL's stock at its current price. They have yet to come out and say we are going to miss our latests estimates for fiscal year '08 and '09 looks even worse. While nobody can predict a stock with anywhere close to 100% accuracy (they'd be multi-billionaires if they could), many people have a proven track record of being right more often than wrong.

 

I guess it it time for that trip to the bookstore afterall. ;)

[RetireeWannabee]

the market is based on perception and speculation, not "all known facts". This is why it goes up and down because news happens every day, good and bad. Investors get scared, investors get bold, blah blah blah.

 

Perception - how you interpret the news

Speculation - acting on your perception

[xpcdoojk]

Wow, perhaps it is time to return to gradual school; your rants are becoming more non-sensical by the post. If you were correct, investing in the stock market really would be no different than playing the lottery. You are assuming that at each moment in time a company's stock price is perfectly priced for the exact current conditions of the company and all that is expected to occur in the future for the company. That however is far from the truth. Nearly anyone with market experience will tell you that some stocks are overvalued and some are undervalued. Yes, the price of oil is known, but I do not think that the ramifications are fully built into to RCL's stock at its current price. They have yet to come out and say we are going to miss our latests estimates for fiscal year '08 and '09 looks even worse. While nobody can predict a stock with anywhere close to 100% accuracy (they'd be multi-billionaires if they could), many people have a proven track record of being right more often than wrong.

 

I guess it it time for that trip to the bookstore afterall. ;)

 

Nope, who said the market is perfect? Nobody, but that straw man allows you to ignore the true situation.

 

I said the market price reflects the consensus of the market based on all facts, speculation and rumors and all other garbage that is filtered thru the market.

 

At the end of the day someone buys the stock someone else sells. This fact is ignored in your analysis. You are saying anyone that buys is wrong.

 

The fact that the price is reflective of incorrect information is quite true, and that is what I said when I mentioned Tibet and cold fusion.

 

Yes, but you are the one that can predict the future not I, and you won't take credit for being a genius. I don't get it. :rolleyes:

 

There may indeed be a trend that means the value of RCI stock will continue down. However, it is also true that it may continue down far below where the real facts would justify. Rampant negativity does affect the entire market as does excessive enthusiasm in a bull market. The fact that markets correct is proof of how wrong all of the smart people can be.

 

Playing the lottery your expected value of a lottery ticket is based on the odds of winning and the value of monetary reward. My belief is that many people think that by being smarter than the market they will get rich is a lot like those that think buying a lottery ticket is going to make them rich. I think buying a stock should be a decision that doesn't involve quite as much risk as buying a lottery ticket. Of course, my advice to people who buy lottery tickets would probably be that they would be better off by buying some crappy penny stocks of companies that are in bankruptcy instead of lottery tickets, but an even better option would be to buy solid companies and diversify their portfolio as much as possible.

 

I, also, tend to see that those who lack the monetary resources worry about the value of their individual holdings so obsessively that they are in and out of the market so much that they destroy the basic economic reality of the stock market increases in value over time better than any other comparable investment. These people have a hard time viewing the market having other properties to a different kind of investor.

 

 

 

jc

[wallie5446]

Well I still see that there are quite a few with a 'booked' sailing listed in their post. So uless one has the farm sunk into RCI who cares! Now RCI & all the other lines might if we all stopped booking :) Fat chance.

[xpcdoojk]

Well I still see that there are quite a few with a 'booked' sailing listed in their post. So uless one has the farm sunk into RCI who cares! Now RCI & all the other lines might if we all stopped booking :) Fat chance.

 

Hey buddy! How is things? Thought of you a couple of months ago when we were in Dallas.

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

Nope, who said the market is perfect? Nobody, but that straw man allows you to ignore the true situation.

 

I said the market price reflects the consensus of the market based on all facts, speculation and rumors and all other garbage that is filtered thru the market.

 

At the end of the day someone buys the stock someone else sells. This fact is ignored in your analysis. You are saying anyone that buys is wrong.

 

I, also, tend to see that those who lack the monetary resources worry about the value of their individual holdings so obsessively that they are in and out of the market so much that they destroy the basic economic reality of the stock market increases in value over time better than any other comparable investment. These people have a hard time viewing the market having other properties to a different kind of investor.

 

Bravo, you are starting to make sense! However nowhere in my analysis did I indicate that stock is traded without someone buying and someone else selling. Where did you get that from? Of course there is a buyer for every seller; in my opinion anyone buying during the past few months got in at the wrong time. I do agree with you that many people try to get too cute with their trading and do more harm than good by over trading. However, many people do harm by believing that "buy and hold" is a good thing in the current market conditions.

[wallie5446]

Guess you 'deleated' the # outa da phone :rolleyes: I gotta go buy some stock:eek:

[Gonzo70]

RCL closes at $26.20

[DON M.]

Nope, who said the market is perfect? Nobody, but that straw man allows you to ignore the true situation.

 

I said the market price reflects the consensus of the market based on all facts, speculation and rumors and all other garbage that is filtered thru the market.

 

At the end of the day someone buys the stock someone else sells. This fact is ignored in your analysis. You are saying anyone that buys is wrong.

 

The fact that the price is reflective of incorrect information is quite true, and that is what I said when I mentioned Tibet and cold fusion.

 

Yes, but you are the one that can predict the future not I, and you won't take credit for being a genius. I don't get it. :rolleyes:

 

There may indeed be a trend that means the value of RCI stock will continue down. However, it is also true that it may continue down far below where the real facts would justify. Rampant negativity does affect the entire market as does excessive enthusiasm in a bull market. The fact that markets correct is proof of how wrong all of the smart people can be.

 

Playing the lottery your expected value of a lottery ticket is based on the odds of winning and the value of monetary reward. My belief is that many people think that by being smarter than the market they will get rich is a lot like those that think buying a lottery ticket is going to make them rich. I think buying a stock should be a decision that doesn't involve quite as much risk as buying a lottery ticket. Of course, my advice to people who buy lottery tickets would probably be that they would be better off by buying some crappy penny stocks of companies that are in bankruptcy instead of lottery tickets, but an even better option would be to buy solid companies and diversify their portfolio as much as possible.

 

I, also, tend to see that those who lack the monetary resources worry about the value of their individual holdings so obsessively that they are in and out of the market so much that they destroy the basic economic reality of the stock market increases in value over time better than any other comparable investment. These people have a hard time viewing the market having other properties to a different kind of investor.

 

 

 

jc

Gonzo, also stated last week that RCL had a "horrible" last quarter, while every brokerage house has stated it was very good. It looks like a very good long term investment right now.

[Gonzo70]

Gonzo, also stated last week that RCL had a "horrible" last quarter, while every brokerage house has stated it was very good. It looks like a very good long term investment right now.

 

Sure, they are only down over 30% since they reported their last quarter. If that was a "very good" quarter, I'd hate to see what happens when they have a bad quarter. Pray tell, what brokerage house stated it was good? If you think it looks like a good long term investment, go ahead and buy it up here. Unbelievable.

[dak_friendly]

RCL closes at $26.20

 

For everyone to have a bit of an eye opener and take what they will from the following transaction:

 

(pulling info from AP)

"[Royal Caribbean Director Bernt Reitan bought 20,000 shares on May 2nd with prices ranging $31.71 to 32.17 a share.]"

 

If he bought all 20,000 shares for $31.71. If it was for the lowest price, $31.71 ($634,200 total), his stock is now worth $524,000 today. That's a loss in value of $110,200 in less than six weeks.

 

Ow.

 

Now for those buying 100 shares just to get onboard credit benefits:

If you bought 100 shares at the same time (with no fees), $3,171 spent... today's value $2,620... loss in value $551. And you still have to spend more cash to get your OBC.

[Gonzo70]

For everyone to have a bit of an eye opener and take what they will from the following transaction:

 

(pulling info from AP)

"[Royal Caribbean Director Bernt Reitan bought 20,000 shares on May 2nd with prices ranging $31.71 to 32.17 a share.]"

 

If he bought all 20,000 shares for $31.71. If it was for the lowest price, $31.71 ($634,200 total), his stock is now worth $524,000 today. That's a loss in value of $110,200 in less than six weeks.

 

Ow.

 

Now for those buying 100 shares just to get onboard credit benefits:

If you bought 100 shares at the same time (with no fees), $3,171 spent... today's value $2,620... loss in value $551. And you still have to spend more cash to get your OBC.

 

But according to Don they had a great quarter and have a great outlook. :rolleyes: ;) :D

[DON M.]

Sure, they are only down over 30% since they reported their last quarter. If that was a "very good" quarter, I'd hate to see what happens when they have a bad quarter. Pray tell, what brokerage house stated it was good? If you think it looks like a good long term investment, go ahead and buy it up here. Unbelievable.

Here is 1 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67117-royal-caribbean-added-to-goldman-s-conviction-buy-list. Looks even better now, than March.

[Gonzo70]

Here is 1 http://seekingalpha.com/article/67117-royal-caribbean-added-to-goldman-s-conviction-buy-list. Looks even better now, than March.

 

That is more than three months old! They have had a lot of analyst downgrades since then, not to mention a bad quarter, and lowered full year estimates (and likely will have to lower them even further). I still want to see what brokerage houses stated it was a great quarter?!? You are aware that the stock has plummeted since that article was written that you linked? Doesn't that make you realize the person was wrong? Why do you think the stock is down 40% in the past few months if everything is so great with the company?

[xpcdoojk]

Bravo, you are starting to make sense! However nowhere in my analysis did I indicate that stock is traded without someone buying and someone else selling. Where did you get that from? Of course there is a buyer for every seller; in my opinion anyone buying during the past few months got in at the wrong time. I do agree with you that many people try to get too cute with their trading and do more harm than good by over trading. However, many people do harm by believing that "buy and hold" is a good thing in the current market conditions.

 

 

You are saying the market is going down only, and that you are not smarter than the big guys and yet you don't understand for every sell there is a buy... IE one of those smart fund managers making a buy decision. They do that because they want to lose money.:D :rolleyes: :eek: Again congratulations on being smarter than those guys who bought in the last 5 months.

 

Give it up... we already know you can predict the future.

 

How the heck do you come up with the buy and hold causing harm???? Good grief... you just can't admit that your investment strategy is the only correct investment strategy can you? Good grief...

 

You never seem to understand that other people view things differently than you, and you seem to want to convince them that they are wrong and you are right. I have been trying to show you that both can be right, and that nobody knows (except you who can see the future) what is going to happen tomorrow, now 5 months from now we all can see the future in retrospect, and declare that we knew something, but for those of us who are mortal without pre-vision can not. Only investing at the perfect moment is something that happens usually by accident and not knowing, because everyday at the close of the market everyone involved has bet both ways, or they never would buy or sell depending on their individual situation. And if you do your investment by predicting that perfect moment you are quite likely to freeze yourself out of investing due to the fear of missing the turn. For most investors a wise thing is to buy value and to hold it for the long term. John Maynard Keynes who was a genius was said to make a fortune regularly by buying and selling stocks or the futures markets, unfortunately a lot of people think by watching Mad Money or other shows that they now have the knowledge that is unique to them, and that they know which way the market is going. Just like the guy at the craps table that knows he has hot dice, or the guy at the Quickie Mart who knows his birthday, dogs age, daughters wedding, and the expiration date on his PBR will make him rich.

 

jc

[Gonzo70]

Oh my, back to your rants. I never said any of the things you are purporting. I never said the market is only going down. I said that I believe RCL stock is going to continue trending down for the time being. I never said that RCL stock is being sold without someone buying the shares being sold; that would not be possible. I never said I can predict the future; I said that I think RCL is in very bad financial shape relative to where the stock is currently priced; I have been saying this consistently since the stock was at 42 and have so far been correct all the way down to 26 and change. I have made no suggestions that I can correctly predict the overall market or all stocks; I have only made comments about RCL. In my opinion buying a large stock for the long term, without frequently reassessing if the company is still healthy is generally as foolish as someone who day trades. If you disagree with that, fine. Perhaps you can give all your money to Don to manage and see how he does. Afterall, he interpreted RCL's last quarter as being fantastic, so he must really be a lot smarter than me.