experienced flyers-need your help!!

I am about 7 months out from my cruise to Miami(Oct 11), and my DH really wants a non-stop flight. Right now prices from MSP to MIA are $465 (returning Oct 20). This is about $30 higher than what it had been about 2-3 months ago, but it has been as high as $495 last week. I havent flown since 2010 when flights were much cheaper, so this seems high to me, but I just might be trying to compare to years previous...

In your experience, would you book now because they are probably going to keep rising, or wait because we are still a ways out and other flights might be posted? Do they usually add more flights or is what is out all there is going to be?

I would book now. You've already said it has gone up, and it probably will continue to do so. I imagine the slight drop is very temporary and won't last long.

Airline schedules are pretty much "locked in" when they release fares. They are good at adjusting supply to anticipated demand. That is set by years of historical data as well as good forecasting for the months ahead. If anything, airlines have incentive to limit supply as that increases fares and revenue. There's about 20% fewer seats flying around the country compared to 2007. For that reason you're correct that you can't use past years as a good yardstick.

The Florida market has a lot of leisure travel which is low-yield for the airlines. Most have cut back routes, frequencies, or even dropped cities entirely in the FL market. Because of that, FL fares have probably risen more than other areas.

Hope this helps, as FYI we are looking at fares to SJU for November. They are running about $150 higher RT from California compared to the same week last year when we went there for a cruise. For some reason the demand to MIA and the Caribbean seemed "soft" last Nov. as reflected in airfares (we got a fantastic deal) but I'm not seeing those signs this coming November.

Still no guarantee.

I booked a direct flight from MSP to FLL as part of my open jaw ticket eight months in advance before my sailing in Dec.

In Sept, Delta cancelled this direct flight. I was rerouted through Atlanta, if I wanted to keep my same daytime departure, which I did.

Good luck

 

In your experience, would you book now because they are probably going to keep rising, or wait because we are still a ways out and other flights might be posted? Do they usually add more flights or is what is out all there is going to be?

Buy now. It would be rare for an airline to add additional flights along a particular route. To do so means the airline would have to see a big increase in demand. To profit from the demand increase, they could do two things: 1) increase supply by adding another flight, or 2) raise prices on existing flights (i.e. reduce the number of tickets available at the cheap fare buckets and force pax to purchase higher fare buckets) Option 1 brings in additional revenue, but also causes a simultaneous increase in expenses (more fuel, another crew, etc.) Option 2 keep brings in additional revenue while expenses remain the same. Given the slim per-flight profit margin, option 2 is most likely the most profitable to the airline.

thank you for all of your input, that is what I thought I was going to hear...just received confirmation, flights are booked :)

Airline schedules are pretty much "locked in" when they release fares.

I must disagree, especially (but not only) with Delta.

Still no guarantee.

I booked a direct flight from MSP to FLL as part of my open jaw ticket eight months in advance before my sailing in Dec.

 

In Sept, Delta cancelled this direct flight. I was rerouted through Atlanta, if I wanted to keep my same daytime departure, which I did.

I find just the opposite of kenish. Airlines change their schedules all the time after they release fares and schedules +-11 months in advance. But usually that works in my favor. I have been able to get relatively circuitous routings rebooked to more direct routings due to airline schedule changes. Happened for a trip I just returned from this week with United. Happened for a trip I am taking in June with Alaska Air. Has happened with just about every trip I have ever taken with Delta using frequent flyer miles. The nice thing about schedule changes is that you can pretty much name your preferred connection when the airline schedules change.

Frugal dear,

There is a caveat to your statement, particularly involving Delta. The flight change must be SUBSTANTIAL, and is only allowed one time per itinerary. Substantial may also be the reduction of a connection outside the allowable connection time. For example, I booked a flight with the minimum connection time in Atlanta of 35 minutes. When the schedule changed to a connection time of 29 minutes I was able to change the connecting flight. I booked the original flight also knowing that there were four more flights that day to my destination.

We have not had quite the same cooperation from AA and United but we are medallion ff's on Delta and peons on everything else. That makes a big difference too.

I also would never make the blanket statement that Kenish made. Flight schedules change at the will of the airline. A biggie at one of the airports we use has been Southwest dropping non-stop flights left and right. For those who believe that Southwest hung the moon and is always the cheapest carrier - take a careful look at their schedules now against what they were 6 to 9 months ago. Certain markets took a real beating. Do I really want to fly from Birmingham to New Orleans via Baltimore?

Frugal dear,

There is a caveat to your statement, particularly involving Delta. The flight change must be SUBSTANTIAL, and is only allowed one time per itinerary. Substantial may also be the reduction of a connection outside the allowable connection time.

 

I also would never make the blanket statement that Kenish made. Flight schedules change at the will of the airline. A biggie at one of the airports we use has been Southwest dropping non-stop flights left and right.

While stated policies may say that the change must be SUBSTANTIAL, the reality is that I've been able to change flights for a schedule change that was as little as 10 minutes. I've done this several times, the most recent being when a connection was shortened by 10 minutes (actually I believe it was only 8 or 9 minutes) but was still a legal connection. I'm sure being a medallion flyer (DL) helped, but you never know until you ask.

As for Southwest dropping flights, they are in the throes of merging with Air Tran. When airlines merge there are always significant changes to flight schedules, as overlapping duplications are eliminated, hubs are realigned, and two sets of schedules become one. So I would hardly use WN as an example to go by in this case.

There is a caveat to your statement, particularly involving Delta. The flight change must be SUBSTANTIAL, and is only allowed one time per itinerary. Substantial may also be the reduction of a connection outside the allowable connection time.

I am not sure where you get your information that a change is "only allowed one time per itinerary." That is not true. If the airline makes a change, and I reschedule/rebook then the airline makes another change, of course I am able to reschedule/rebook again. Same itinerary ("PNR") but multiple changes.

Each airline's definition of "substantial" is different, but with Delta I have been able to rebook with only an hour difference in schedule. With United (on my last trip, no status) I rebooked two or three times (bought my ticket 8 months in advance then had multiple schedule changes over the course of the 8 months).

I am not sure where you get your information that a change is "only allowed one time per itinerary." That is not true. If the airline makes a change, and I reschedule/rebook then the airline makes another change, of course I am able to reschedule/rebook again. Same itinerary ("PNR") but multiple changes.

 

Each airline's definition of "substantial" is different, but with Delta I have been able to rebook with only an hour difference in schedule. With United (on my last trip, no status) I rebooked two or three times (bought my ticket 8 months in advance then had multiple schedule changes over the course of the 8 months).

this is true.

I have a price point in mind when I'm doing trip details and book air tickets (and cruise tickets) when that price or close to it is for sale.

We each have to deal with our own comfort levels with Frugaltravel being very willing to seek out the best deals.

Are you flying with Southwest? They have to most lenient and flexible fare policies. My airline of choice. If the fare drops, they will bank the difference for you (to be used within a year).

I know you said direct flight, but is it cheaper to arrive in Fort Lauderdale and shutter, bus, tain to Miami?

Renee

UA's substantial change is either 60 or 90 minutes. I had a change last year (my 1 stop turned into a 2 stop). The advantage is that you can get a refund so you have the option of buying something else if the fares have dropped.

Beware of buying in advance and paying for a non-stop flight (typically more expensive out of a fortress hub which MSP is) if it gets dropped and you're put on connecting itinerary which may have been cheaper when you bought your ticket.

The Contract of Carriage legally binds the airline and customer when they buy a ticket. The CoC for most airlines say they only need to get you from A to B, they don't have to get you there at any particular time or date, and any published schedules are only guidelines.

Hypothetically they can change you to a flight 5 days later without violating the CoC. With a few exceptions, most airlines would never do that...their employees operate to internal policies that cover schedule changes, discontinued flights, etc. Some airlines are very hard and fast on employee compliance to policy while others give the employee leeway to use best judgment and common sense. That's probably why the responses on this thread vary a lot...without having the internal policy it's difficult to know exactly what an airline does in a specific situation.

Airlines continue to "stratify" their customers. Currently, passengers who pay the highest fares get more flexible rules and priority service while the lowest fares don't have the same level of customer support. I expect this to increase going forward. The speculation on new Southwest fees and restriction on their lowest fares is an example of what may be coming.

The CoC for most airlines say they only need to get you from A to B, they don't have to get you there at any particular time or date, and any published schedules are only guidelines.

I totally agree. I assume you didn't mean the following, which I responded to above:

Airline schedules are pretty much "locked in" when they release fares.

Most people don't realize how fluid airline schedules can be and often are. I would venture to guess that 99% or more of the passengers never heard of the CoC, much less read them.

I totally agree. I assume you didn't mean the following, which I responded to above:

 

Most people don't realize how fluid airline schedules can be and often are. I would venture to guess that 99% or more of the passengers never heard of the CoC, much less read them.

I said "schedules" were locked in, when I meant "inventory". Schedules change all the time as everyone stated, and in my experience (mainly AA and AS) when a flight is cancelled, another takes its place. Also my experience- once a flights on for a specific route and date start to sell out, the airlines don't release a flood of new seats at low fares. If any inventory is added, it's a few seats in the top fare buckets.