mnocket

LOL Yeah, now down 6%.

The medics have arrived! The bleeding has stopped..... for now. NCLH +12.8% RCL +11.7% CCL +11.3% Market leaders on an up day. These stocks are super crazy in an already crazy market.

The bleeding hasn't stopped. The market is making a nice rebound today. NCLH & RCL are up a percentage point or so. However, CCL continues to fall, now down about 2%. I don't really understand this divergence between CCL and the other cruise line stocks. Is CCL really seeing more serious problems than the other lines?

Maybe - maybe not. Crystal requires large and early deposits. When they went belly up there were many who lost tens or thousands of dollars. Take a look at the Crystal board for first hand reports. I agree that it's often the case that customers are kept whole, but there are always exceptions. I have my first cruise on Regent Seven Seas (NCLH) booked for the end of 2023 and I will have to reassess the risk when final payment comes due. It certainly isn't zero.

This is what makes markets work. You need buyers and sellers. Some believe a company/sector is on the rise and others believe it's in decline. I don't personally find your arguments compelling, but I'll place my bets in the stock market - not with private parties. fwiw I still own some cruise line stocks, but any more news like CCL's and I'll sell them all. My gut tells me Virgin is among the most likely to close down, but I haven't done a financial deep dive because I don't own their stock.

Thanks. However there seems to be another side to this coin. If you book through a TA, any money you paid to the TA that they hadn't passed along to the provider would also not be covered (i.e. it's between you and the TA. There is no 3rd party). fwiw I'd also read that it's important to confirm that the TA will use your credit card (not theirs) to make payment to the provider.

Closing prices... CCL Down 23.25% NCLH Down 18.04% RCL Down 13.14% We got ourselves a bloodbath!

Neither am I, but they are on a short leash. If we get more negative news from other lines I'll bail. I rode a couple stocks to zero during the tech bubble - lesson learned.

I had no idea this was the case. Is it true for all/most policies?

Unlikely, but not impossible. People lost megabucks on Crystal bookings.

I bought some cruise line stocks 6 months ago because I thought the worse was behind for cruise lines. Mistake. I now think one or more major cruise line bankruptcies is more likely than not in 2023. Consider this..... CCL's share price is now lower than its Covid low.

RCL seems to be in better shape than CCL & NCLH, but that's not saying much. CCL just issued a pretty dire earnings update causing all cruise line stocks to tank. Most interesting to me is that CCL is now trading below its Covid low! Imagine that... investors now think CCL is worth less than it was during the Covid shutdown. Advanced bookings are down - the reopening surge is waning. Pricing power seems to have disappeared. Labor shortages remain. Worst of all, rising interest rates along with faltering financial performance will make refinancing their huge debts much more expensive. 6 months ago I bought some cruise line stocks because I thought the worse was over. Mistake. I now feel one or more major cruise line bankruptcies is more likely than not in 2023.

It looked like they were climbing out of the weeds. They survived Covid and restrictions are becoming a thing of the past. They were able to raise enough capital to survive until things got back to "normal". Now we hear from CCL ..... "Carnival (CCL) missed EPS and EBITDA estimates with its report and the update on advance bookings for Q4 fell below the historical normal range, which was unexpected just a few weeks ago. The cumulative advance bookings for the quarter were also noted to be at lower prices." And the market responded harshly - CCL -19%, NCLH -14%, RCL -10%. For reference, CCL is now BELOW its COVID low! It seems the anticipated surge in bookings is fading. Their reopening pricing power is no more. Labor constraints persist. Perhaps most importantly, rising interest rates and poor financial progress will make refinancing their existing debt VERY expensive. Given all this, one has to ask.... SHOULD WE BE EXPECTING MAJOR CRUISE LINE REORGANIZATIONS AND BANKRUPCIES IN 2023? I'm starting to think it's more likely than not.

Thanks for posting. I was curious about what would happen if you sent an opt out email. Still not sure how they are going to insure your image will be edited out if caught on film...... facial recognition maybe?

If State laws apply when in international waters. I have no idea.

I had another thought on this. I actually don't know the legal purpose of releases. Are they to waive your right to compensation/interest in the production (seems they sometimes pay you $1) or are they a waiver to your right to privacy (i.e. not being shown on TV)? In short.... is a release required to use your image or use your image without compensation?

I don't know any law on this topic😁 nor do I know which country has jurisdiction (maybe none while in international waters?). I also find it interesting that they don't seem to require releases. I posted on the roll call asking for info from anyone who sent an email to opt out. If I get a response, I'll post it here. (perhaps @chengkp75 can chime in on jurisdiction and filming on cruise ships?)

I've seen reports that Only 15% of Americans regularly wash their reusable grocery bags. I wonder how many are meticulous about keeping their reusable straws clean?

Two thoughts.... If you send an opt out email I'm guessing they offer to book you on another sailing - those who don't (i.e everyone who sails) are fair game to be filmed without having signed a release. Is anyone else fed up with cruise lines waiting until after final payment (or worse until mid-cruise) before announcing changes (e.g. ports, et al), when these changes were known well ahead of time? It just seems like deceptive marketing.

Is this really such a common problem that it requires this type of solution? I know things can happen of cruises, but it's just never been a problem for me. I fear this cure may have unintended consequences. For example.... say some drunk guy gropes your daughter and you slap his hand away - he responds by punching you and you are both wind up on the no-cruise list for fighting (cruise line bans everyone involved in fighting). The "but he started it" defense didn't work well in grade school and it probably won't in this case either. I'm just not sure it's such a wide-spread problem that a no-cruise list is called for.

I like to visit different places, but I hate to have to pack & unpack every few days. Cruising lets me spend a few days exploring a location before/after while getting to sample other locations during the cruise itself. I also hate long international air travel unless it's business class. Transoceanic cruises are typically much cheaper than business class fares and a lot more enjoyable.

Well written review. Thanks!

I think the quotes should have been around "younger" rather than "more sensitive"😁 Nonetheless, those of us in our 60's appreciate being referred to as younger - even if it is in relation to those in their 70's!

Yeah. I'm the OP and it sure seems like the article was poorly researched and written.

So many Questions as to why a company decided this was a good idea. First off.... are there many popular ports that could accommodate a cruise ship of this size? This may be old news to many, but I was amazed when I came across this story. Would you consider sailing on a ship of this size? https://jalopnik.com/worlds-largest-cruise-ship-to-be-scrapped-before-first-1849501828