Australia $ Value, Economic Direction?

[SPacificbound]

MicCanberra, I would love to come back again someday, but even if I don't I have fabulous memories and almost 6,000 pictures. :D We even spent a few days in Canberra which was quite funny, when we checked into the hotel the lady checking us in said "we don't get tourists".

 

NSWP, You are very welcome. You have every reason to be proud. Australia was at the very top of my "bucket list" and I am very happy to be an unofficial spokesperson for Australia tourism. :)

Edited November 24, 2013 by SPacificbound

[MicCanberra]

MicCanberra, I would love to come back again someday, but even if I don't I have fabulous memories and almost 6,000 pictures. :D We even spent a few days in Canberra which was quite funny, when we checked into the hotel the lady checking us in said "we don't get tourists".

 

NSWP, You are very welcome. You have every reason to be proud. Australia was at the very top of my "bucket list" and I am very happy to be an unofficial spokesperson for Australia tourism. :)

Yes, most people come to Canberra for business rather than pleasure and Canberra is expensive to visit.:D

[SPacificbound]

Yes, most people come to Canberra for business rather than pleasure and Canberra is expensive to visit.:D

 

That's OK, we wanted to experience as much of Australia as we could so Canberra was a part of that experience. :)

[NSWP]

Yesterday I was going through some old records of a trip we did in 1997 to USA and UK.

 

1 Aussie Dollar was worth 52 US cents and 37 UK pence. So no complain now !!

 

Do you think we can reduce our cruise tips by 10% due to the recent fall in the AUD? I can hear the hollering from our American friends right now.

[SPacificbound]

Yesterday I was going through some old records of a trip we did in 1997 to USA and UK.

 

1 Aussie Dollar was worth 52 US cents and 37 UK pence. So no complain now !!

 

Do you think we can reduce our cruise tips by 10% due to the recent fall in the AUD? I can hear the hollering from our American friends right now.

 

Yes I bet that (1997) hurt. We spent 7 weeks in the UK and Western Europe in 2008. That was quite painful. :D We had a good time though.

Did not fall in love though as we did in Australia and New Zealand. I told DH if we didn't have grand-kids we would be moving to Australia. :)

Edited November 24, 2013 by SPacificbound

[MicCanberra]

Yes I bet that (1997) hurt. We spent 7 weeks in the UK and Western Europe in 2008. That was quite painful. :D We had a good time though.

Did not fall in love though as we did in Australia and New Zealand. I told DH if we didn't have grand-kids we would be moving to Australia. :)

Bring them too.:rolleyes:

I also have travelled when the AUD was poor (0.46 USD) but as long as you can factor it into your budget then it is fine. It is when you don't you can get into trouble.:D

[TLCOhio]

As our Jan. 20-Feb. 3, Sydney to Auckland cruise on the Celebrity Solstice gets closer, I did an update on our roll call, including that the Wall Street Journal has the Aussie dollar at $0.9027 this morning.

 

From the respected Reuters newswire two hours ago this morning, they have this headline: "Dollar gains, Aussie at low" with these highlights: "The dollar rose against the yen and the euro on Wednesday as expectations grew that key economic data from the United States this week could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to exit its bond-buying program. The euro fell 0.1 against the dollar to $1.3580. The Australian dollar fell to a three-month low as investors pared back riskier bets and after Australia's GDP growth came in below market expectations. Markets are eyeing U.S. GDP data on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which investors will study for clues about when the Fed will taper its monetary stimulus. Its next policy meeting is on December 17-18. Many investors and analysts expect the Fed to begin reducing stimulus at its March meeting, so an upbeat employment report would increase speculation that tapering could come earlier. 'This week is maybe the most important week for the dollar now for the year,' said Manuel Oliveri, currency strategist at Credit Agricole. Hedge funds sold the Australian dollar after data showed 0.6 percent growth in GDP in the third quarter, below analysts' median forecast of 0.8 percent. That news came just a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate steady at a record low of 2.5 percent, although it reiterated that the local currency remained 'uncomfortably high', and expectations have now grown that it could act at its next meeting. The Aussie dropped 1.1 percent to $0.9036, breaking through the key support level of $0.9050/55. A sustained break could see a retracement all the way to this year's low of $0.8848. Hedge funds have been negative on the Aussie for some time. CQS founder Michael Hintze, whose firms runs around $12 billion, told Reuters last month that he was short the Australian dollar, citing the 'very, very clear' wish of central bank governor Glenn Stevens for it to weaken."

 

Interesting background on how both developments in the U.S. and Australia affect these currency values.

 

Full story at:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/04/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE9AH0UU20131204

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 150,894 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[The_Big_M]

Now that's a bargain!

[TLCOhio]

When I checked the Wall Street Journal this morning, their on-line latest for the Aussie dollar is $0.8975.

 

Good news for us as we closer to our Jan. 9 departure date! There can be debate on the pro/con aspects for the Federal budget "deal" just announced in Washington DC, but for right now that settlement probably helps the "strength" of the U.S. dollar in a challenged world economy. There are a number of factors, however, involved.

 

From the Wall Street Journal today, "Australia Jobless Rate Edges Toward Post-Crisis High" with this subhead: "Unemployment Is a Weak Spot as a Long Mining Boom Fades". Other Aussie newspapers also tie in the rising unemployment in Australia as a factor for these currency value shifts. This WSJ article also notes: "It is a situation replicated across Australia as a once-booming economy grapples with slower growth and a sharp fall in resources investment. Australia's jobless rate rose to 5.8% in November, edging closer to a post-financial crisis high and posing a challenge for the country's conservative government. Unemployment surged to the top of the political agenda Wednesday as General Motors Co. said it would cease all production in Australia from 2017, resulting in more than 2,900 job losses. It is following the path of other manufacturers who have exited the country as a strong local currency has given foreign competitors a cost advantage."

 

Clearly for those in Australia, these development are not as positive. Lots of factors involved in these currency shifts. It has been a good learning experience following these economic developments. Plus, the sharing and insights by those down under.

 

Full story at:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303293604579252871146941290

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 127,448 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

Based on the below, breaking-news article, my hope for an 89 cents Aussie dollar might be coming sooner rather than later. From the Sidney Morning Herald, Canberra Times and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia tomorrow morning, they have this headline: "Stevens says Aussie dollar needs to fall further" with these highlights: "Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has indicated he wants an Aussie dollar closer to 85 US cents, while pointing to 'promising signs' that the economy is transitioning away from the mining boom. He said that turning the lower currency into a real depreciation that spurs growth would require real wage cuts. The currency continued its recent slide overnight, falling below 90 US cents to be trading around 89.30 US cents this morning. The governor told the Financial Review he would prefer a lower dollar over lower interest rates as a mechanism to spur the economy. He said 'I thought [uS]85 cents would be closer to the mark than [uS]95 cents.' Mr Stevens agreed that for the falling exchange rate to help stimulate trade exposed sectors of the economy it would be necessary for the depreciation to create a real wage cut. The RBA governor expressed hope the US Federal Reserve would begin taper its money printing program 'before too much longer,' saying it would be a good news story for both the US economy and Australia."

 

On December 8, the Wall Street Journal had this headline and profile about the head of the top government bank for Australia with this headline: "Central Bank Governor Warns Against Hubris". Here were some of this WSJ story highlights: "Having helped steer Australia safely through the global financial crisis as head of the country's central bank, Glenn Stevens warns that Australia faces a new threat: hubris. 'We are building up this myth of 22 years uninterrupted growth. We shouldn't do that,' Mr. Stevens said in an interview. As governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia since 2006, Mr. Stevens, 55 years old, has presided over an unprecedented period of prosperity, with demand for Australia's raw materials such as iron ore to fuel Chinese steel mills and factories having powered growth. The decadelong mining boom reinforced the country's reputation as 'The Lucky Country.' But with China's economy having slowed, Mr. Stevens faces one of the biggest challenges of his three-decadeslong career: a race to wean the economy off its reliance on mining."

 

Full stories at:

http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/glenn-stevens-says-aussie-dollar-needs-to-fall-further-20131213-2zapf.html

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303330204579245372909974900?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 152,557 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[NSWP]

AUD @ US 89 cents. And the Reserve Bank of Australia wants it to go to US 85 cents, good for Terry in Ohio but bad for us going to the US/South America next year.

 

AUD today, down against all currencies.

Edited December 12, 2013 by NSWP

[MicCanberra]

AUD @ US 89 cents. And the Reserve Bank of Australia wants it to go to US 85 cents, good for Terry in Ohio but bad for us going to the US/South America next year.

 

AUD today, down against all currencies.

Yes, and shock horror really way down against the NZD. ($1.09).:eek:

[The_Big_M]

Based on the below, breaking-news article, my hope for an 89 cents Aussie dollar might be coming sooner rather than later. From the Sidney Morning Herald, Canberra Times and other Fairfax newspapers in Australia tomorrow morning, they have this headline: "Stevens says Aussie dollar needs to fall further" with these highlights: "Reserve Bank of Australia governor Glenn Stevens has indicated he wants an Aussie dollar closer to 85 US cents, while pointing to 'promising signs' that the economy is transitioning away from the mining boom. He said that turning the lower currency into a real depreciation that spurs growth would require real wage cuts. The currency continued its recent slide overnight, falling below 90 US cents to be trading around 89.30 US cents this morning.

 

Unfortunately, his speech was the cause of sudden 1c drop last night. It was released just after midnight our time and the market reacted immediately.

 

Not really happy with his jawboning, which is pushing it below fair value, but that's what he's after.

[The_Big_M]

Yes, and shock horror really way down against the NZD. ($1.09).:eek:

 

Yeah, NZ's got better growth prospects at the moment so it's been on the rise.

 

The sad thing about our current government's 'policies', but it is what it is.

[Kiwi Kruzer]

The last thing we want in NZ is a high dollar.:eek:

 

[MicCanberra]

Unfortunately, his speech was the cause of sudden 1c drop last night. It was released just after midnight our time and the market reacted immediately.

 

Not really happy with his jawboning, which is pushing it below fair value, but that's what he's after.

He wants it at around $0.80 USD.:(

[MicCanberra]

Yeah, NZ's got better growth prospects at the moment so it's been on the rise.

 

The sad thing about our current government's 'policies', but it is what it is.

 

The last thing we want in NZ is a high dollar.:eek:

 

Good for the NZers over here, not so good for the NZers in NZ.:D

[NSWP]

Maybe Terry in Ohio is a US Treasury Official. LOL.

 

One Aussie Dollar = 89.62 US Cents, today.

 

OK guys, drop the on board tips back 10%.

Edited December 15, 2013 by NSWP

[MicCanberra]

Maybe Terry in Ohio is a US Treasury Official. LOL.

 

One Aussie Dollar = 89.62 US Cents, today.

 

OK guys, drop the on board tips back 10%.

 

That isn't fair on the staff, maybe the cruise lines should just upgrade us all.:D

[The_Big_M]

 

One Aussie Dollar = 89.62 US Cents, today.

 

I see it as slightly undervalued now, so the marginal recovery back to .896 is in line with that.

 

That said, the jawboning has an effect each time Glenn Stevens does it - and the effect will be greater now that the new government has increased our debt by $8bn to give him more ammo. I see that the currency market will be a bit skittish about what he's going to do.

 

This coming week will also have some announcements that can cause swings.

[MicCanberra]

I see it as slightly undervalued now, so the marginal recovery back to .896 is in line with that.

 

That said, the jawboning has an effect each time Glenn Stevens does it - and the effect will be greater now that the new government has increased our debt by $8bn to give him more ammo. I see that the currency market will be a bit skittish about what he's going to do.

 

This coming week will also have some announcements that can cause swings.

 

MYEFO will be interesting, the current Gov has already flagged hat it is terrible due to the previous Gov.:D

[The_Big_M]

Riiiight.

[TLCOhio]

Maybe Terry in Ohio is a US Treasury Official. LOL.

 

The_Big_M: I see it as slightly undervalued now' date=' so the marginal recovery back to .896 is in line with that. That said, the jawboning has an effect each time Glenn Stevens does it - and the effect will be greater now that the new government has increased our debt by $8bn to give him more ammo. I see that the currency market will be a bit skittish about what he's going to do. [b']This coming week will also have some announcements that can cause swings.[/b]

 

MicCanberra: He wants it at around $0.80 USD.

 

Appreciate these added insights' date=' info and background. Don't think things will get down to 80 cents for the Aussie dollar value. Will see what announcements happen this week.

 

Sorry, not a U.S. Treasury official!! Getting no paychecks for being on the Feds' payroll. Would be nice. I'll call President Obama with your suggestion.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio[/font']

 

Celebrity Solstice Visual Highlights? From our June 7-19, 2011, Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in France, Italy, Kotor and Dubrovnik, I have pull together a number of wonderful visuals of the Solstice, its features, food, entertainment, options, etc. We are now at 13,653 views for this shorter version of my larger full review of that cruise and all of the port pictures/details. Check these postings and added info at:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1803477

[MicCanberra]

Appreciate these added insights, info and background. Don't think things will get down to 80 cents for the Aussie dollar value. Will see what announcements happen this week.

 

Sorry, not a U.S. Treasury official!! Getting no paychecks for being on the Feds' payroll. Would be nice. I'll call President Obama with your suggestion.

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

 

LOL, you could be his special AUD liaison officer.:D

[MicCanberra]

Dollar dropped below $0.89 for a while today, that jawboning is still having an effect and with possible drops in interest rates next year, it is certainly going to drop further. MYEFO and the subsequent forecasting for slow growth would be putting investors off, causing a drop in the AUD as well. Great for Terry, not so much for us.:D