Optimistic news from Carnival, pessimistic news from Norwegian.

[ssmea03]

Published today on the CBC. Norwegian in serious financial difficulties.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cruise-lines-1.5555686

[UPNYGuy]

I saw that too. It is disheartening to say the least. You are correct about Carnaval though, at least with Carnival Cruise Line. Not sure what the rest of the lines under the carnival corporate umbrella are doing, haven’t really looked. I briefly looked at the Holland America forum, and there is a lot of frustration over there stemming from a lack of transparency on the HAL side. You would think carnival would be doing similar things with all of their brands.  
 

DW and I  have a cruise booked on carnival vista the end of August once selling resumes. I think Carnival Cruise Line is playing it smart by having a smaller amount of ships sailing from a reduced amount of ports. 

[Beardface]

Not shocked to see Norwegian struggling.  Their nickel and diming of the cruise experience reminded me a lot of what we saw out of US Air before they went under / merged with American Airlines.  Would not be surprised if they end up in a forced merger by the end of the year, with a new line emerging as a major player, possibly still under the NCL name.

 

Curious on what happens with their fleet.  The Encore is in the middle of its maiden season.  If they go under, they have some very new, very nice ships that would be attractive for other lines to pick up.

[BermudaBound2014]

Since the beginning of the cruise line shut down, NCL has been the most vulnerable on paper. I have a future cruise credit with NCL that I am preparing to lose if ships don't start sailing in July. CCL secured the Saudi loan , which postured them into a cash position to make it until fall, but I"m not sure even CCL will make it past then if ships remain grounded. Since CCL is the the largest fleet, it would not surprise me to see consolidation of some of their off-shoots (HAL, Princess, Costa, etc...).

[UPNYGuy]

1 hour ago, Beardface said:

Not shocked to see Norwegian struggling.  Their nickel and diming of the cruise experience reminded me a lot of what we saw out of US Air before they went under / merged with American Airlines.  Would not be surprised if they end up in a forced merger by the end of the year, with a new line emerging as a major player, possibly still under the NCL name.

 

Curious on what happens with their fleet.  The Encore is in the middle of its maiden season.  If they go under, they have some very new, very nice ships that would be attractive for other lines to pick up.

 

well, MSC has been rapidly expanding, and that would give them the wherewithal to do it in one fell swoop. MSC is also privately owned, and the subsidiary of a very large shipping company. They definitely have the funding to do it. Plus, the design of the NCL ships would fit in (in a way) with the MSC fleet. MSC has the yacht club, and Norwegian has the Haven. The Decor is different, but that is less of an issue. Ships could be deployed as part of a branded effort (Norwegian by MSC). Plus, with the amount of ships that MSC has on order and have not been built, might be a cheap way to expand operations if Norwegian goes bust. 
 

granted this is all speculation and I am not in any way shape or form wishing for Norwegian to go bankrupt.

 

I apologize if there are grammatical mistakes in this, and if this is really wordy. I was using the Siri feature on my iPad to write this all out. 

[Host Jazzbeau]

2 hours ago, UPNYGuy said:

well, MSC has been rapidly expanding, and that would give them the wherewithal to do it in one fell swoop. MSC is also privately owned, and the subsidiary of a very large shipping company. They definitely have the funding to do it. Plus, the design of the NCL ships would fit in (in a way) with the MSC fleet. MSC has the yacht club, and Norwegian has the Haven. The Decor is different, but that is less of an issue. Ships could be deployed as part of a branded effort (Norwegian by MSC). Plus, with the amount of ships that MSC has on order and have not been built, might be a cheap way to expand operations if Norwegian goes bust. 

 

That's an interesting idea.  MSC has 4 ships on order that are extremely large; Norwegian's newer ships would let them expand more slowly and much more cheaply.  MSC also has 4 'luxury class' ships on order which they wouldn't need if they had Oceania and Regent.  [Then they could sell the Oceania 'R-ships' to Frank Del Rio and he could start a new cruise line, like he did when Renaissance folded in 2001.  But that's not a serious suggestion...]

[UPNYGuy]

1 minute ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

 

That's an interesting idea.  MSC has 4 ships on order that are extremely large; Norwegian's newer ships would let them expand more slowly and much more cheaply.  MSC also has 4 'luxury class' ships on order which they wouldn't need if they had Oceania and Regent.  [Then they could sell the Oceania 'R-ships' to Jason Montague and he could start a new cruise line, like he did when Renaissance folded in 2001.  But that's not a serious suggestion...]

yes exactly. 

[Host Jazzbeau]

You caught me while I was correcting a mistake.  I meant Frank Del Rio, not Jason Montague.  [Fixed my post, but not your quote.]  

[UPNYGuy]

5 minutes ago, Host Jazzbeau said:

You caught me while I was correcting a mistake.  I meant Frank Del Rio, not Jason Montague.  [Fixed my post, but not your quote.]  

I figured you meant FDR. Oceania was the Phoenix that rose from Renaissance. 

[UPNYGuy]

As an aside, I do like those R ships. I have sailed on Oceania a few times. 

[Host Jazzbeau]

So do I, but I prefer them on Azamara.

[rkacruiser]

5 hours ago, UPNYGuy said:

I think Carnival Cruise Line is playing it smart by having a smaller amount of ships sailing from a reduced amount of ports. 

 

I concur.  See what the bookings are like.  See what the problems that develop are.  

[UPNYGuy]

Just now, Host Jazzbeau said:

So do I, but I prefer them on Azamara.

I have looked into Azamara. Never booked them though. No real answer why, just never have. 

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Since CCL is the the largest fleet, it would not surprise me to see consolidation of some of their off-shoots (HAL, Princess, Costa, etc...).

 

This is likely in my opinion.  Princess has a historical Italian vibe made even more so when they purchased Sitmar Cruises years ago.  A combination of Costa/Princess is probably overdue at the least.  An argument could be made to include Carnival Cruise Lines in such a combination as well.  I have yet to sail on a Carnival Cruise Line ship whose officers were not primarily Italian.  

[rkacruiser]

5 minutes ago, UPNYGuy said:

I have looked into Azamara. Never booked them though. No real answer why, just never have. 

 

I have considered there ships.  Reasons why I won't be a guest:

 

#1:  Cruising friends whose opinions I respect sailed on one of the ships when they were R ships had little to say positively about the ship itself.  Low ceiling MDR made for a very noisy dining experience.

 

#2:  I never cared for the deck plans that I saw.

 

#3:  Photos of the interior decor were a turn-off for me.   

[BermudaBound2014]

Here is the actual filing with the SEC if interested.  https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1513761/000110465920056537/nclh-20200416x8k.htm

 

 

1 minute ago, rkacruiser said:

 

This is likely in my opinion.  Princess has a historical Italian vibe made even more so when they purchased Sitmar Cruises years ago.  A combination of Costa/Princess is probably overdue at the least.  An argument could be made to include Carnival Cruise Lines in such a combination as well.  I have yet to sail on a Carnival Cruise Line ship whose officers were not primarily Italian.  

 

It goes without saying that we are all (including me of course) speculating, but I think it is harmless and  interesting, discussion. 

 

@rkacruiser I never thought of a costa/princess combo. I feel the older HAL vessels are most likely to be repurposed/sold. To me, it seems that Princess and HAL took the brunt of bad press in Corona (whether or not warranted), and I feel like one of those two subsidiaries are especially vulnerable. 

 

I do think MSC taking some ncl ships is quite logical. If I'm not mistaken, wasn't EPIC supposed to be a MSC ship? Or visa versa with the design? They both (MSC and NCL) have been leaning toward less passenger space ratios so the business model of new builds seems to be the same.

 

Forumla just posted MSC's financials for 2019. I haven't read the entire document yet, but I'm always cautious of self-reported financials. However; MSC has historically self-reported impressive gains, and we really haven't any tangible reason to be suspicious. I know MSC shipping is a huge business as I see MSC stamped on containers being carried by train way up here in Michigan. I very much appreciate the value that MSC offers and would love to see them survive (and thrive). 

 

 

[UPNYGuy]

13 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

This is likely in my opinion.  Princess has a historical Italian vibe made even more so when they purchased Sitmar Cruises years ago.  A combination of Costa/Princess is probably overdue at the least.  An argument could be made to include Carnival Cruise Lines in such a combination as well.  I have yet to sail on a Carnival Cruise Line ship whose officers were not primarily Italian.  

 

I would think we would be more likely to see a Costa / Carnival tie up. Most Costa ships use similar (if not identical) hulls to Carnival ships. In fact, Carnival Splendour was originally ordered for Costa. The Carnival Destiny/Sunshine/Conquest ships are similar to Concordia class. They use the same hull. Same with Costa Venezia. It is a sister to Vista. ive always thought of Costa as the Italian version of Carnival. 

[rkacruiser]

4 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't EPIC supposed to be a MSC ship? Or visa versa with the design

 

An interesting question.  Epic was to have a sister ship built if I recall correctly.  The cost over runs for Epic (and delays, I think?) escalated NCL's cost for the ship and it's unusual stateroom design for some staterooms that was not well accepted resulted in the cancellation of the option for a second ship.  Today, in my opinion, it is an ugly ship.  

[UPNYGuy]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It goes without saying that we are all (including me of course) speculating, but I think it is harmless and  interesting, discussion

Yes exactly. 

[rkacruiser]

4 minutes ago, UPNYGuy said:

 

I would think we would be more likely to see a Costa / Carnival tie up. Most Costa ships use similar (if not identical) hulls to Carnival ships. In fact, Carnival Splendour was originally ordered for Costa. The Carnival Destiny/Sunshine/Conquest ships are similar to Concordia class. They use the same hull. Same with Costa Venezia. It is a sister to Vista. ive always thought of Costa as the Italian version of Carnival. 

 

No disagreement with your thinking by me.  Makes sense, I think.

 

But, then what to do with the Princess vs HAL group?  

[UPNYGuy]

2 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

An interesting question.  Epic was to have a sister ship built if I recall correctly.  The cost over runs for Epic (and delays, I think?) escalated NCL's cost for the ship and it's unusual stateroom design for some staterooms that was not well accepted resulted in the cancellation of the option for a second ship.  Today, in my opinion, it is an ugly ship.  

this is correct. Epic was originally code named F3, or Freestyle 3, for the 3rd generation of freestyle ship. The Jewel class was F2. It was axed by Kevin Sheehan and the F4 ship is what was developed into the Breakaway. The Haven Complex turned him off so much Kevin would refer to it as the top hat or the derby hat. 

[BermudaBound2014]

@rkacruiser Yes, extremely ugly. I know lots of people think Seaside is ugly and on some forums she is refereed to as the "condo class";  but I think seaside is a gorgeous design.!! I will say this about the epic, they have the best spa I have ever been in on a ship. They have the traditional lasso-therapy pool and heated loungers, but the dry sauna is massive and the best part is that the spa has an aft balcony with comfy padded loungers in full shade. The spa and vibe made for a great vacation on epic, the rest of the experience was typical NCL.

 

Taking your idea about a princess/costa combo a bit farther, I foresee a possible princess/Hal merge. Hal has been trying to grab a slightly younger, but childless, crowd with the blues room and now the rolling stones room.  We have a HAL scheduled for January. Not sure what's going to happen there.

[UPNYGuy]

Just now, rkacruiser said:

 

No disagreement with your thinking by me.  Makes sense, I think.

 

But, then what to do with the Princess vs HAL group?  

Costa and Carnival is the most obvious to me. P&O, Princess, and HAL all compete for the same group as far as I can remember. 

[UPNYGuy]

3 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

@rkacruiser Yes, extremely ugly. I know lots of people think Seaside is ugly and on some forums she is refereed to as the "condo class";  but I think seaside is a gorgeous design.!!

seaside is easily our favorite ship. We had 2 more sailings on her this year that were axed. Next year we are back on Meraviglia for several sailings.  We were on her in the med. not our fave ship, but we are in the yc.

Edited May 5, 2020 by UPNYGuy

[rkacruiser]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Hal has been trying to grab a slightly younger, but childless, crowd with the blues room and now the rolling stones room.  

 

BB King, Rolling Stone Rock Room, and Billboard on Board work.  Lots of attendance.  Lincoln Center Live attract its own guests and is also well patronized.