CCL's stock price

[chisoxfan]

1 hour ago, wowzz said:

Yes, but we have four cruises booked, and in  the UK you cannot apply for obc more than three months in advance, so we would need to buy and sell four times, with associated trading costs and stamp duty each time.

And whilst I know you never can say never, bankruptcy is highly unlikely now, compared to two years ago.

I understand all analysis can be questioned but I had read the summary below which calls for 49% chance of bankruptcy. Money is tightening and the one thing CCL needs is cheap money.

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/CCL--Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

 

[chicgotgame]

46 minutes ago, chisoxfan said:

Well if you know it is going to go up you could make a fortune!  I have been 'lucky' and made a few cents a share within the hour that my trading usually occurs. I am sure people are doing this (quick buy and turnaround) but never see comments on this....

I buy when it’s much lower than typical and set a limit order when it bounces up .50/$1. Haven’t lost yet except for selling too soon and could have made $100’s more by holding for a month instead of only $100. Even today it’s bounced around .50. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by chicgotgame

[chisoxfan]

1 hour ago, chicgotgame said:

I buy when it’s much lower than typical and set a limit order when it bounces up .50/$1. Haven’t lost yet except for selling too soon and could have made $100’s more by holding for a month instead of only $100. Even today it’s bounced around .50. 

I get it. This is a volatile stock. As indicated I am happy to get a free OBC and am not looking to make a CCL 'trade'.

[Incognito1]

I'm guessing that if a lot of people started to do that, Princess would make the hold 6 months instead of 30 days.

[chisoxfan]

1 minute ago, Incognito1 said:

I'm guessing that if a lot of people started to do that, Princess would make the hold 6 months instead of 30 days.

There is no 'hold'. You send a statement 90 days before sailing and they give you a credit. The statement shows you owned the stock (maybe for five minutes). There is no way to enforce requirement to hold the stock- in normal markets people seemed happy to buy and hold and get some credit. Not sure this makes sense today. My guess is that the granted OBC and percentage of cruisers that use stock ownership for OBC is an afterthought for CCL.

[Incognito1]

90 days. oops.  That's what I meant by hold; if you had to have it for 6 months first.  Sorry for poor communication.

[VibeGuy]

Encouraging investors to hold stock for a period of time, for an off-the-books reward, violates securities laws.  The shareholder benefit as constructed is about as restrictive as it can be.  
 

93% of CCL stock is held by institutional shareholders  who will never claim the benefit.  The lines clearly see the marketing benefit and understand the costs underlying the redemption.  

[chisoxfan]

10 minutes ago, VibeGuy said:

Encouraging investors to hold stock for a period of time, for an off-the-books reward, violates securities laws.  The shareholder benefit as constructed is about as restrictive as it can be.  
 

93% of CCL stock is held by institutional shareholders  who will never claim the benefit.  The lines clearly see the marketing benefit and understand the costs underlying the redemption.  

Not that it is important but I have seen number from 49-55% institutional investor ownership but agree the OBC is a blip on the radar. The individual investors who know about the OBC, buy shares, and fill out paperwork cannot be significant.

[VibeGuy]

I think any whiff of doubt I had about Going Concern was dispelled by the market response to the latest bond offerings.  The yield to maturity came in somewhat lower than sentiment expected. 
 

Again, operational profitability is decent - with numbers like these, I don’t think the fixed income crowd would get too upset if something happened and they had to take one more comparatively-expensive cash infusion.  

[VibeGuy]

9 minutes ago, chisoxfan said:

Not that it is important but I have seen number from 49-55% institutional investor ownership but agree the OBC is a blip on the radar. The individual investors who know about the OBC, buy shares, and fill out paperwork cannot be significant.

Whoops.  I double-counted 13D/13F filers.  Oopsie.  I still only get 16% retail though.  The Arison-related trusts get really complicated.  

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

Not that it is important but I have seen number from 49-55% institutional investor ownership but agree the OBC is a blip on the radar. The individual investors who know about the OBC, buy shares, and fill out paperwork cannot be significant.

Largely because of the large chunk owned by Arison, as well as the other insiders that are not listed as institutional investors, but are also certainly not retail buyers.  add those to the institutional ownership and the combined number it pretty high.  Last time I checked Arison had about 17%

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, VibeGuy said:

I think any whiff of doubt I had about Going Concern was dispelled by the market response to the latest bond offerings.  The yield to maturity came in somewhat lower than sentiment expected. 
 

Again, operational profitability is decent - with numbers like these, I don’t think the fixed income crowd would get too upset if something happened and they had to take one more comparatively-expensive cash infusion.  

One thing that people need to keep in mind is that the pool of deposits for cruises booked but not yet taken, which is currently at record highs, provide the cruise lines with a lot of operating cash (about 4 months of retail sales with the 90 day final payment requirement.  This is how cruise lines funded a lot of things prior to Covid and what caused them lots of issues when they had to shutdown, since that total far exceeded their cash on hand at the time.  This gives the cruise lines far more operating flexibility then their balance sheet implies.  After all the money is not held in an escrow account it is used for operations as needed.  As long as there is not another stoppage this gives CCL a cookie jar of 5-7 billion that is drawn as needed but not in their profit/loss statement.

[caribill]

And the "experts" can have very different predictions:

 

• Barclays Maintains Overweight on Carnival, Raises Price Target to $13

   

• Wells Fargo Upgrades Carnival to Equal-Weight, Announces $9 Price Target

   

[VibeGuy]

31 minutes ago, caribill said:

And the "experts" can have very different predictions:

 

• Barclays Maintains Overweight on Carnival, Raises Price Target to $13

   

• Wells Fargo Upgrades Carnival to Equal-Weight, Announces $9 Price Target

   

So one moved off sell in the last 24 hours.  Still six out of 21 saying buy, now three out of 21 saying sell what you own.  Such a ringing endorsement. 

[dockman]

For anyone who ever watches sports like March Madness you will soon learn that the word "experts" does not necessarily mean they have a clue as to winners/losers.  Take a look at some of the experts brackets and these are people who watch hundreds of games, know the coaches, and maybe even played themselves.  I don't see stock picking experts as being all that different.  Educated guess seems a better description.

[chisoxfan]

12 hours ago, dockman said:

For anyone who ever watches sports like March Madness you will soon learn that the word "experts" does not necessarily mean they have a clue as to winners/losers.  Take a look at some of the experts brackets and these are people who watch hundreds of games, know the coaches, and maybe even played themselves.  I don't see stock picking experts as being all that different.  Educated guess seems a better description.

Fundamentals mean little in this market. It all depends on the Fed and I would not bet on these Bozos, who have pretty much missed every call in the past decades, to make the correct call.

ldtr makes a good point regarding deposits but I view it as a negative in some ways. Yes, free money but it also locks in pricing in for years.  If you see a recession coming (or here) one could draw a conclusion that many of these deposited future trips could disappear. There was certainly a rush to travel and unprecedented $$$ thrown into the Covid economy that people could not wait to spend. This could turn around quickly in a downturn and/or high inflation economy. Anyway CCL stock and the economy probably not relevant to the CC site but I do enjoy seeing posters views of this and how divergent they can be.

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

Fundamentals mean little in this market. It all depends on the Fed and I would not bet on these Bozos, who have pretty much missed every call in the past decades, to make the correct call.

ldtr makes a good point regarding deposits but I view it as a negative in some ways. Yes, free money but it also locks in pricing in for years.  If you see a recession coming (or here) one could draw a conclusion that many of these deposited future trips could disappear. There was certainly a rush to travel and unprecedented $$$ thrown into the Covid economy that people could not wait to spend. This could turn around quickly in a downturn and/or high inflation economy. Anyway CCL stock and the economy probably not relevant to the CC site but I do enjoy seeing posters views of this and how divergent they can be.

It will always be roughly 1/3  of what the annual revenue rate, with most of it being the money received after final payment date, but before the cruise.

 

While in a recession business might be impacted, as during past recessions, that number might drop, but not excessively so. One can get a good idea looking at filings from 2005 to 2014 to see how much business might be impacted during a very severe recession. The one during the next year or so should be relatively minor.

[chisoxfan]

29 minutes ago, ldtr said:

It will always be roughly 1/3  of what the annual revenue rate, with most of it being the money received after final payment date, but before the cruise.

 

While in a recession business might be impacted, as during past recessions, that number might drop, but not excessively so. One can get a good idea looking at filings from 2005 to 2014 to see how much business might be impacted during a very severe recession. The one during the next year or so should be relatively minor.

OK, glad you know that we will have a 'relatively minor' recession. Personally, I see reduced bookings, higher food, labor, interest, and fuel costs. If everything goes perfectly (none of the above) CCL can pay debt burden and survive with everything priced to perfection (kind of like the US Government but without the ability to print money). Totally subjective but we (and some friends) who were 'addicted cruisers' have cut back on cruises due to increased prices, reduced services, and availability of alternative vacations....not to get personal but how much CCL stock do you own? 

[Guest ldtr]

26 minutes ago, chisoxfan said:

OK, glad you know that we will have a 'relatively minor' recession. Personally, I see reduced bookings, higher food, labor, interest, and fuel costs. If everything goes perfectly (none of the above) CCL can pay debt burden and survive with everything priced to perfection (kind of like the US Government but without the ability to print money). Totally subjective but we (and some friends) who were 'addicted cruisers' have cut back on cruises due to increased prices, reduced services, and availability of alternative vacations....not to get personal but how much CCL stock do you own? 

Keep in mind that even during past recessions cruise lines margins have gotten impacted, but not volume.  The issue is not what individual cruisers do, but what happens industry wide.  Behavior even during the worst recession since the great depression has been pretty consistent.

 

As far as alternative vacations go, cruise prices are up, but land based alternatives are up far more.  Cruise prices are up single digits or slight more, land based hotel prices, especially resort hotels, are up 40/50% +.   Not so much with lower priced brands but still up 25%+ in general.

 

One can expect the cruise lines to test their pricing power to try for at least 25% increases on the Fare side now that they have all done increases on the on board sales side.

 

While the debt will certainly limit their ability to buy new ships and will restrict how they use the money for the next decade or so, they certainly are showing sufficient progress that lots of options have opened up.

[chisoxfan]

9 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Keep in mind that even during past recessions cruise lines margins have gotten impacted, but not volume.  The issue is not what individual cruisers do, but what happens industry wide.  Behavior even during the worst recession since the great depression has been pretty consistent.

 

As far as alternative vacations go, cruise prices are up, but land based alternatives are up far more.  Cruise prices are up single digits or slight more, land based hotel prices, especially resort hotels, are up 40/50% +.   Not so much with lower priced brands but still up 25%+ in general.

 

One can expect the cruise lines to test their pricing power to try for at least 25% increases on the Fare side now that they have all done increases on the on board sales side.

 

While the debt will certainly limit their ability to buy new ships and will restrict how they use the money for the next decade or so, they certainly are showing sufficient progress that lots of options have opened up.

Ok, you could be White House press secretary. I don'[t claim to know what will happen in the future, just saying that the Cruise Industry with their debt and potential recession looming may not be in a good place.

When many of us our shocked at current pricing it seems insane that they will try for 25% increases.

Again, pricing on currently booked cruises are fixed for 12-24 mos. Tell me you own significant CCL share ownership and I may become a believer.

[VibeGuy]

For guests who cruise a week or two a year and are comparing to land vacation costs, cruising remains a terrific value.  Carnival as a brand is the most poised to benefit from this kind of price comparison because of their diversity of home ports - the savings of driving four people to the pier vs flying them to the pier is a competitive advantage.  
 

I think cost pressures are certainly a factor and I’d rather see ten points in occupancy than just ten points in revenue, but the operating margins can absorb some further stress from fuel and labor.  Almost everything wrong at Carnival Corp is due to the debt and will be for a decade to come. 

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

Ok, you could be White House press secretary. I don'[t claim to know what will happen in the future, just saying that the Cruise Industry with their debt and potential recession looming may not be in a good place.

When many of us our shocked at current pricing it seems insane that they will try for 25% increases.

Again, pricing on currently booked cruises are fixed for 12-24 mos. Tell me you own significant CCL share ownership and I may become a believer.

If you read posts I never said that ccl was a good investment. I actually said the opposite. The stock is not going to do much for a few years.

 

That said it is unlikely that the company will fail either. Now that they are cash flow positive on operations they are in a good place to weather the debt, even though they will be dealing with it for the next 10 years.

 

Currently booked cruises have prices locked in, that is not all cruised sold for the next 12 to 24 months 

 

One of the reasons why the cruise lines have gone the packages included in fare route is because that accelerates the payment of the previously onboard spend to 90 days before cruise. In Princess's case that increases the amount they receive by final payment date from 15 to 60% depending upon which package and cabin type.

Edited March 29, 2023 by ldtr

[Guest ldtr]

Also keep in mind that while CCL did lose money on the most recent quarter of 686 million, 582 million of that was depreciation.  So that means that they are only 104 million from being cash flow positive on everything including debt payments.

[Over from NZ]

5 hours ago, ldtr said:

Also keep in mind that while CCL did lose money on the most recent quarter of 686 million, 582 million of that was depreciation.  So that means that they are only 104 million from being cash flow positive on everything including debt payments.

Providing that their boats never need replacing. Depreciation is a cost for a real reason.. 

 

[Guest ldtr]

51 minutes ago, Over from NZ said:

Providing that their boats never need replacing. Depreciation is a cost for a real reason.. 

 

Yes.  However we are dealing with short term cash and retirement of debt.  They have already stated that they will not be ordering new ships at current debt levels.

 

 it is money already spent, so while it is recognition of capital expenses depreciated over time the expense on the books does not represent current cash, only an write down of money spent years ago.  As such CCL is close to be cash flow positive even with debt payments something that is far more critical in the short term.  Reduce debt and new captial purchases will be undertaken as necessary.  CCL has already gotten rid of ships that they would normally be getting rid of in the next 5 years.

Edited March 30, 2023 by ldtr