Coast Guard closed Port Canaveral

[reallyitsmema]

2 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said:

Wow this is great. That is Hurricane Franklin affecting Bermuda.

 

If you pulldown on the "watch another webcam" at the top, there are a bunch of webcams at various ports including Tampa. 🙂 

[Starry Eyes]

35 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said:

I am not concerned about the port either. I am just wondering if we will make it to Bermuda. Have you any indication if they are changing itinerary for the next cruise?

The Captain’s noon announcement discussed the impact of Idalia on weather in CoCoCay tomorrow.  I have not heard any discussion further than that.  

Storm course, speed, and strength are difficult to predict multiple days out.  I think it is currently too soon to know if our itinerary will change.  I want to sail even if our itinerary changes.  You?

[Heidi pour another Beer]

2 minutes ago, Starry Eyes said:

The Captain’s noon announcement discussed the impact of Idalia on weather in CoCoCay tomorrow.  I have not heard any discussion further than that.  

Storm course, speed, and strength are difficult to predict multiple days out.  I think it is currently too soon to know if our itinerary will change.  I want to sail even if our itinerary changes.  You?

Absolutely. What did he say about Cococay? Please post if you hear anything 🙂

[RedIguana]

9 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Agree, cone changed a lot in last 12hrs, Back then showed southern edge by Clearwater, now even further north then Steinhatchee, change of about 130 miles miles... Flying into Tampa myself Saturday afternoon leaving Monday for B3B on Serenade

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.5N  83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N  86.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

 

Position wise they were off by less than 60 miles 4 days out, when it was still a depression.

 

 

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102023
0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  85.0W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 130SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  85.0W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N  85.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.7N  85.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  45SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.2N  84.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N  83.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE  80SW  80NW.

 

And less than 10 miles 30 hours out.

 

 

[Starry Eyes]

39 minutes ago, Heidi pour another Beer said:

Absolutely. What did he say about Cococay? Please post if you hear anything 🙂

Captain said we might get some wind and rain from outer bands/ influence of Idalia in CoCoCay tomorrow, mostly in the morning.  Trivial, I’m sure, compared to those who were/are really in the path of the storm.

 I will post if I hear rumors of itinerary changes.

 

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Starry Eyes

[RedIguana]

10 hours ago, ONECRUISER said:

Agree, cone changed a lot in last 12hrs, Back then showed southern edge by Clearwater, now even further north then Steinhatchee, change of about 130 miles miles..

The cone is the forecast track plus a certain distance on either side to account for an amount of error based on the forecast period. It will narrow from about 210 miles wide to 50 miles wide from 3 days out to 1 day out (actual distance may vary based on forecast confidence). The cone came about due to concern people were focusing on the forecast line they used to use, assuming they were out of the range of forecast error. So even if the actual forecast track does not change by much, the cone will. Now there is debate on the effectiveness of the cone as some people believe the cone to be the area that will be affected by the storm, not the storm forecast track plus error. Here is the archive link of the cone plus line from 5 days out, they did pretty good with this one. Notice the forecast track (line) is pretty consistent as far as track (yeah time and intensity will always be off a little), and the cone narrows as to the landfall position as it gets closer.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

[ONECRUISER]

2 hours ago, RedIguana said:

The cone is the forecast track plus a certain distance on either side to account for an amount of error based on the forecast period. It will narrow from about 210 miles wide to 50 miles wide from 3 days out to 1 day out (actual distance may vary based on forecast confidence). The cone came about due to concern people were focusing on the forecast line they used to use, assuming they were out of the range of forecast error. So even if the actual forecast track does not change by much, the cone will. Now there is debate on the effectiveness of the cone as some people believe the cone to be the area that will be affected by the storm, not the storm forecast track plus error. Here is the archive link of the cone plus line from 5 days out, they did pretty good with this one. Notice the forecast track (line) is pretty consistent as far as track (yeah time and intensity will always be off a little), and the cone narrows as to the landfall position as it gets closer.

 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

True, though in only watching that last 12 hrs it shift more North then eastern predictions sparing Tampa area

[Heidi pour another Beer]

It's official, email received.

[Sunshine3601]

That itinerary looks decent, better than nothing!    Glad to see they are giving Bermudians time to recover from Cat 2 Franklin passing by and whatever comes from Idalia.     They are very resilient islanders and have good systems in place but will still take time to unboard and open back up.

Hope you have a great cruise with perfect weather and smooth seas.

[twangster]

It was a little breezy here on the Central East coast of Florida today but no impact.  A few palm fronds down like with any sort of wind.  

 

Clear tonight, little wind.  Super moon tonight.  Got this a few minutes ago from my backyard.

 

[Starry Eyes]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:20 PM, Heidi pour another Beer said:

It's official, email received.

Chat on board says Mariner will use the above itinerary, conditions permitting.  They will evaluate the position of the storms, etc while we are in CoCoCay on 9/3, making a decision whether Bermuda is a go.  Rumor has it there is a back up plan, though I do not know the details.

[Heidi pour another Beer]

11 hours ago, Starry Eyes said:

Chat on board says Mariner will use the above itinerary, conditions permitting.  They will evaluate the position of the storms, etc while we are in CoCoCay on 9/3, making a decision whether Bermuda is a go.  Rumor has it there is a back up plan, though I do not know the details.

Thank you so much for taking the time to keep me informed. We board at 10:30 see you soon!