New Carnival ships?

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

I would guess it is more for sales and marketing to prolong life span of the product.  I get your point of what is required vs that.  

 

How do they inspect hull?

Yes, it is all marketing, but at the end of the road, you still have the increased operating cost of an older hull.

 

Every dry dock, ships are required to perform ultrasonic thickness tests on steel plates and frames, and x-ray inspections of welds.  At the 15 year mark, the number of these that are required increases exponentially, and in more difficult places to do, so this alone costs more.  But, based on these tests, there will likely be requirements to repair welds or renew steel, and lots of this stuff can be in difficult places like inside bunker tanks, or sewage tanks, that require cleaning before any "hot work" (cutting and welding) can be done.

[jimbo5544]

24 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Yes, it is all marketing, but at the end of the road, you still have the increased operating cost of an older hull.

 

Every dry dock, ships are required to perform ultrasonic thickness tests on steel plates and frames, and x-ray inspections of welds.  At the 15 year mark, the number of these that are required increases exponentially, and in more difficult places to do, so this alone costs more.  But, based on these tests, there will likely be requirements to repair welds or renew steel, and lots of this stuff can be in difficult places like inside bunker tanks, or sewage tanks, that require cleaning before any "hot work" (cutting and welding) can be done.

Very interesting,  thanks

[Joebucks]

It certainly is a more complex topic than most of us could solve. I don't think anyone knows exactly what the next few years will hold. Not even the cruise executives.

 

Either way, I can't see the remaining Fantasy class bringing in profitable growth as compared to being replaced by any newer ship. Considering the number of Oasis Class and now Icon Class that Royal can successfully run, I don't think it would be a bad idea for Carnival to get one more Excel class on the books. 

[TequilaJane]

On 12/20/2023 at 6:12 PM, jimbo5544 said:

  By the end of 24, there will be new ships on order. There is absolutely zero evidence that you need to be be debt free, to order new ships.  You hit the nail on the head, price almost always wins.  Their advance bookings are off the chart.  If in doubt, you can look at what the market thinks.  https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/ccl/forecast/#  

The Carnival Corp CEO said there wouldn't be any newbuilds after these (Jubilee -2023, Seabourn Pursuit -2023 Queen Anne -2024, Sun Princess -2024, Sphere 2 -2025) until at least 2027. For the Carnival band itself he said it could be 7 to 10 years before a new ship is ordered.. This was last year and with be increase in price and capacity going forward that could easily change. You are correct they dont need to elimite all the debt but they do need to control it.

[tidecat]

On 12/21/2023 at 6:25 AM, Honolulu Blue said:

The second sentence is absolutely correct, of course.  RCL and NCLH are similarly indebted to CCL, and they haven't stopped ordering new builds.

 

The first sentence, I'm not so sure about.  Weinstein & Bernstein have both been insistent about no new builds in 2026 on their earnings calls and in public statements throughout this year.  They have another earnings call later this morning, so maybe things might have changed.  Still, I think it's slightly more likely they won't have any new ships on order by the end of '24 than that they will.

If Carnival's placing an order at the end of 2024, a 2026 delivery would be unlikely what is now Carnival Vista was ordered in 2012 and construction did not start until 2014. Unless if Carnival is going to build an exact (or nearly exact) copy of an Excel-class ship, 2026 is out of the question and 2027 may be pushing it.

 

I would not be surprised to see a 2027 or even 2028 delivery have an order placed by March 2024. I'd expect it to be three ships (one each for Miami, Galveston, and Canaveral) with deliveries between 2027-2030.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, TequilaJane said:

The Carnival Corp CEO said there wouldn't be any newbuilds after these (Jubilee -2023, Seabourn Pursuit -2023 Queen Anne -2024, Sun Princess -2024, Sphere 2 -2025) until at least 2027. For the Carnival band itself he said it could be 7 to 10 years before a new ship is ordered.. This was last year and with be increase in price and capacity going forward that could easily change. You are correct they dont need to elimite all the debt but they do need to control it.

We agree on the last point.  Nobody said they did not need to control their debt.  I did not say they were going out and build out of control like RCCL has done (which is also in great debt , both not of their own doing but s forced shut down that All agree was a WAY overstepped knee jerk reaction).  I am also aware of what the Carnival Corp brass said at the time they were WAY upside down on horrendous debt.  

 

They have done a really good job of refinancing what was terrible debt to a dramatically better situation and reduced their debt substantially in one year.  Possibly a best bet scenario.  They certainly are not out of the woods.  All that said, my post stands.  There will be an order placed by the end of 2024 and it will be for CCL.  Doing that, will boost sales even further, and reestablish their plan further back to normalcy.

[jimbo5544]

1 hour ago, tidecat said:

If Carnival's placing an order at the end of 2024, a 2026 delivery would be unlikely what is now Carnival Vista was ordered in 2012 and construction did not start until 2014. Unless if Carnival is going to build an exact (or nearly exact) copy of an Excel-class ship, 2026 is out of the question and 2027 may be pushing it.

 

I would not be surprised to see a 2027 or even 2028 delivery have an order placed by March 2024. I'd expect it to be three ships (one each for Miami, Galveston, and Canaveral) with deliveries between 2027-2030.

While I might argue the dates you mention, we agree on most things.

[jimbo5544]

3 hours ago, Joebucks said:

It certainly is a more complex topic than most of us could solve. I don't think anyone knows exactly what the next few years will hold. Not even the cruise executives.

 

Either way, I can't see the remaining Fantasy class bringing in profitable growth as compared to being replaced by any newer ship. Considering the number of Oasis Class and now Icon Class that Royal can successfully run, I don't think it would be a bad idea for Carnival to get one more Excel class on the books. 

I would bet a new class, think it had been in the works before the Mardi Gras,  agree on some of the older ships, their days are numbered.

[jimbo5544]

Just to echo my stance on the status of things.  

 

https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2023/12/carnival-corp-reports-record-2023-revenue-and-fourth-quarter-earnings/