Cruise Industry Positive Outlook and HAL Ships

[Cruising Is Bliss]

4 hours ago, CNSJ said:

My cut & paste from Word mixed this up!

 

Was supposed to say...

 

"HAL's Vista Class Zuiderdam just wrapped up world cruise, so the lessons learned from a Vista class world cruise are documented. " 

 

Regret my poor pre-send proof reading!!

 

For passengers, cabins smaller and with very limited storage. Also less public space for gathering. The world cruisers voted to go back to R-Class. Behind the scenes, not enough storage space for consumables for long haul cruises to areas of the world where tight resupply schedules were a problem.
 

[TRLD]

8 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

I don't see new ships from HAL. I think it is a matter of time before CCL let's them be absorbed/merged with Princess who has plenty of new ships and investment including new Sphere class. CCL has Cunard/ Seabourn high end, Princess (HAL) upscale mainstream, and Carnival mainstream (along with European brands).  The current HAL ships based on size, age, and demographics cannot be that profitable on a cost/revenue per passenger (just my guess ). IMHO CCL will let HAL ride their aging demographic and fleet into the sunset. Still hoping to take more HAL cruises but I am in the aging demographic.

HAL and Princess have different niches and the targeting of the two lines are getting further apart with the design decisions of the Sun class Princess ships. 

 

HAL has actually been successful in bringing their age demographics down since they launched music walk.   Princess on the other hands demographics have been getting older.  Probably one of the reasons Princess is trying to attract some younger cruisers with the design decisions on the Sun.  Not clear if they know how to make use of them though.

 

Pretty clear that with the decisions and the size Princess is giving up some of their current destinations ports.  They have also been bringing their average cruise length down as ships sizes have gotten larger.  That leaves HAL pretty much along with the combination of average ship size, number of destination ports (more than 100 more than Princess and 200 more than Celebrity), and average cruise length.

Edited July 12 by TRLD

[TRLD]

5 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

Above my pay grade but for general interest here is a RCCL revenue breakdown pp. CCL seems to be much lower revenue pp than NCL or RCCL. The food number looks unbelievably low. 

Of the $1,818, 68.8% ($1,251 per passenger) was spent on cruise fare and the remaining 31.2% ($567 per passenger) was spent onboard for everything from booze to t-shirts in the gift shop

Looking at the last 10Qs  per passenger per day

 

CCL

Fare   154.5

Onboard   83.4   (onboard 35% of revenue

Total    237.9

 

Fuel   21.6

Food 14.8

Payroll  25.3 

 

 

RCL

Fare   206.6

Onboard   96.4     31.8 %

Total  303

 

Fuel  24.7

Food   18.0

Payroll  25.9

 

Market Watch does put out some interesting data for 2024.

 

That shows revenue and passenger totals

This data shows the following revenue per passenger (note this is per passenger, not per passenger day so this like average length of cruise, number of children, etc would need to be taken into account to get a true comparison)

 

There is some interesting data by line

 

CCL   1026

HAL   3317

Princess  2137

 

RCCL  1506

Celebrity 2671

 

NCL 2522

 

I suspect that HALs longest average cruise length and relatively low number of children is skewing their number higher. Will have to see if there is any data on average number of cruise days per passenger available.

 

Just as a quick check on the market watch data I looked at revenue per passenger in the CCL last 10Q filing and the number for revenue per passenger came out at 1752.   Considering the relative sizes of each of CCLs brands this seems reasonable. 

 

Just for fun here are the Market Watch numbers per passenger for a few Premium and Luxury lines just to show the separation

 

Oceania 7,666

Silver Sea   12,705

Seabourn   12,175

Regent   16,330

Edited July 12 by TRLD

[Sir PMP]

1 hour ago, oaktreerb said:

HAL and Seabourn have also shared Captains.

And still are.

[TRLD]

57 minutes ago, Cruising Is Bliss said:

For passengers, cabins smaller and with very limited storage. Also less public space for gathering. The world cruisers voted to go back to R-Class. Behind the scenes, not enough storage space for consumables for long haul cruises to areas of the world where tight resupply schedules were a problem.
 

Only problem is R classes are aging out.

[Hlitner]

9 hours ago, St Pete Cruiser said:

I'm looking for a new build announcement any day now.  Yes, probably on the Queen Anne base with options for 2 or 3 more.  The delay may be the decision on powerplants and fuel.  I look for burning the heavy fuel oils to be eliminated as more areas will be banning their use.

Ok, not a Prinsendam, but maybe we, i.e. Holland America, can take Seaborne's old tonnage as they are replaced?

Doubtful.  The only SB ship being phased out are older 450 passenger 32,000 ton vessels.  Those are too small to be economically viable for the HAL business model.  At the moment, the only SB ship leaving the fleet is the Odyssey, which has already been sold to a Japanese cruise company.  There has been nothing said about selling or transferring out, the other two ships in that class.

 

Hank

[TRLD]

7 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

Doubtful.  The only SB ship being phased out are older 450 passenger 32,000 ton vessels.  Those are too small to be economically viable for the HAL business model.  At the moment, the only SB ship leaving the fleet is the Odyssey, which has already been sold to a Japanese cruise company.  There has been nothing said about selling or transferring out, the other two ships in that class.

 

Hank

There are a couple of ships from CCL owned lines which would fit HAL.  That is ships less than 14 years old and in the 2000 to 2500 ship size.  They are a couple of ships currently with Aida.  Aida has added some large ships in the last 5 years greatly increasing their overall total capacity.  Since they like P&O have decided that large ships are in their future and since their capacity has doubled they could send a couple of their 2100 size ships to HAL.

[BermudaBound2014]

I'm sure most people have seen this chart..... CCL's plan to increase it's highest returning brands. 

 

Edited July 12 by BermudaBound2014

[CNSJ]

13 hours ago, TRLD said:

HAL has actually been successful in bringing their age demographics down since they launched music walk.

I think this makes sense as I am seeing younger cruisers on the Pinnacle Class ships, which offer more with more specialty restaurants, cars, music walk, etc.  HAL may be trying to capture the next generation of their "older clientele" a bit early.  Time will tell. I will leave my chips on the bet that HAL orders a ship like CUNARD's Queen Anne in next 6 months.  

[chisoxfan]

8 minutes ago, CNSJ said:

I think this makes sense as I am seeing younger cruisers on the Pinnacle Class ships, which offer more with more specialty restaurants, cars, music walk, etc.  HAL may be trying to capture the next generation of their "older clientele" a bit early.  Time will tell. I will leave my chips on the bet that HAL orders a ship like CUNARD's Queen Anne in next 6 months.  

We were always very attracted to HAL entertainment (ie. BB Kings) but they have cut this back to newer ships. We booked Nieuw Statendam because of entertainment.... point being if the entertainment was a positive driver of younger cruisers why did they drop BB Kings from the rest of the fleet?

So some newer ships will attract younger due to entertainment but not other ships.......?

We are excited to try Nieuw Statendam with CO but are wondering about the dissonance in musical entertainment within HAL.

[EtaC]

The non-Pinnacle ships only have room for two of the three Music Walk venues that the Pinnacles have and, well, those of us now in our 60's and 70's want music from the 60's 70's, and the 80's as well. HAL had to make a choice of one or the other. While I'm disappointed that BB's won't be on my upcoming Oosterdam trip it's not a total game changer. The live music will still beat what was on my recent NCL trip. 

 

Personally, I think the Pinnacles are about the right size. Big enough to have all the music venues and specialty, but not so enormous that you feel you're on an aircraft carrier (which I have). We did the maiden voyage on Niew Statendam and loved it. 

[TRLD]

3 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

We were always very attracted to HAL entertainment (ie. BB Kings) but they have cut this back to newer ships. We booked Nieuw Statendam because of entertainment.... point being if the entertainment was a positive driver of younger cruisers why did they drop BB Kings from the rest of the fleet?

So some newer ships will attract younger due to entertainment but not other ships.......?

We are excited to try Nieuw Statendam with CO but are wondering about the dissonance in musical entertainment within HAL.

Because younger cruises tend not to take longer cruises on smaller ships.

 

Plus there is a limit to the number of entertainer slots available (cabin space). They can use those slots for more music walk entertainers or for production shoes. Smaller the ship fewer entertainer slots.

 

Also in some ways there are 2 different HALs. Those ships doing itineraries in highly competitive environments, especially during summer such as Alaska and the Med, Caribbean during winter. This itineraries tend to be shorter, attract younger cruisers (not retired) and families. They are introducing HAL to a lot of new (atleast to HAL) cruisers.

 

Then there is the longer, unique itinerary cruises. They tend to be mostly older, often cruising for the itinerary, often on the older smaller ships.

 

 

Edited July 12 by TRLD

[Sir PMP]

17 hours ago, TRLD said:

Looking at the last 10Qs  per passenger per day

 

CCL

Fare   154.5

Onboard   83.4   (onboard 35% of revenue

Total    237.9

 

Fuel   21.6

Food 14.8

Payroll  25.3 

 

 

RCL

Fare   206.6

Onboard   96.4     31.8 %

Total  303

 

Fuel  24.7

Food   18.0

Payroll  25.9

 

Market Watch does put out some interesting data for 2024.

 

That shows revenue and passenger totals

This data shows the following revenue per passenger (note this is per passenger, not per passenger day so this like average length of cruise, number of children, etc would need to be taken into account to get a true comparison)

 

There is some interesting data by line

 

CCL   1026

HAL   3317

Princess  2137

 

RCCL  1506

Celebrity 2671

 

NCL 2522

 

I suspect that HALs longest average cruise length and relatively low number of children is skewing their number higher. Will have to see if there is any data on average number of cruise days per passenger available.

 

Just as a quick check on the market watch data I looked at revenue per passenger in the CCL last 10Q filing and the number for revenue per passenger came out at 1752.   Considering the relative sizes of each of CCLs brands this seems reasonable. 

 

Just for fun here are the Market Watch numbers per passenger for a few Premium and Luxury lines just to show the separation

 

Oceania 7,666

Silver Sea   12,705

Seabourn   12,175

Regent   16,330

Basically Hal is in a good position.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

2 hours ago, EtaC said:

 The live music will still beat what was on my recent NCL trip. 

 

Scratching my head in confusion at this comment...Just a few months ago in April we were on the NCL Joy, we were out every night listening to numerous LIVE Groups that were far more talented than anything we have seen on HAL in recent years. On HAL we might go to one of the 2 venues 2 to listen to the music, that is if we can find a table because there are only two venues. On NCL we joke that we go bar hopping after dinner, the numerous LIVE groups are spread out time wise so that you can leave one and then go to another with about 15  to 20 minutes between sets of at least 6 venues maybe more. We find ourselves staying out past midnight on NCL and we are normally back in our cabin at 9 at the latest on HAL. Our last NCL cruise the last night we were scrambling to throw clothes in our luggage to get our luggage out in the hall on time for last time they run the hallways to pick up luggage.

[EtaC]

Admittedly pre-covoid but my experience on NS was superior to that on the N. Pearl, an ostensibly larger ship. The bands were fine but they played short sets and they finished around 10 to 11. After that it was pre-recorded 2010 era "dance" music. My wife and I are swing/ballroom/latin  dancers and the only venue with a decent sized floor was the topside forward area that was also used for game shows, bingo often in the evening. In the other areas they played we were squeezed between the band and the tables on a carpet. We also found the dance floors a bit too occupied by those who had clearly been drinking too much. Not agressive, but not aware of their surroundings.

 

By comparison the NS Music Walk acts played until at least 11 or to midnight (again, this may have changed post-covid). When one venue took a break the others began their set so the music was continuous. The dance floor in even the smallest venue was of adequate size and that of BB's was the largest I've seen on a ship. That and the "drunk dancer" factor was minimal.

 

So we'll see how things go on Oosterdam. First post-covid cruise on HAL. No BB's and clearly smaller venues. But to pull this back to the thread topic. I think that the Pinnacle size is the right fit for future HAL ships. I for one would sail on a new ship of similar size and design.

[chisoxfan]

3 hours ago, TRLD said:

Because younger cruises tend not to take longer cruises on smaller ships.

 

Plus there is a limit to the number of entertainer slots available (cabin space). They can use those slots for more music walk entertainers or for production shoes. Smaller the ship fewer entertainer slots.

 

Also in some ways there are 2 different HALs. Those ships doing itineraries in highly competitive environments, especially during summer such as Alaska and the Med, Caribbean during winter. This itineraries tend to be shorter, attract younger cruisers (not retired) and families. They are introducing HAL to a lot of new (atleast to HAL) cruisers.

 

Then there is the longer, unique itinerary cruises. They tend to be mostly older, often cruising for the itinerary, often on the older smaller ships.

 

 

I certainly don't know but have heard and makes sense to me that BB Kings was popular but expensive which was a reason for cut back on non-pinnacle ships. I believe HAL has also terminated the marketing agreement with BB Kings but will maintain a blues themed club in respective ships.

When you say there are two HAL's I would agree which kind of puts it in an awkward marketing position.

[TRLD]

44 minutes ago, chisoxfan said:

I certainly don't know but have heard and makes sense to me that BB Kings was popular but expensive which was a reason for cut back on non-pinnacle ships. I believe HAL has also terminated the marketing agreement with BB Kings but will maintain a blues themed club in respective ships.

When you say there are two HAL's I would agree which kind of puts it in an awkward marketing position.

while music walk has been somewhat successful, it came at the expense of staffing the production shows. Now they are restoring the production shows. Fully staffing those means the headcount has to come from somewhere.

 

In our case we sail on HAL in spite of music walk, not because of it. Music selection too curated and repetitive. We did like Lincoln Center, but thought they were two regimented. A good violin duo with a flexible selection would be our preference.

 

 

With HAL they get the numbers with the competitive, shorter itineraries, but really beef up their per passenger numbers on the longer unique itineraries.

[cbr663]

On 7/11/2024 at 2:01 PM, aliaschief said:

With so many ports of call now restricting or downright banning cruise ships in their ports what does the future hold? Now even Alaska is discussing restrictions or limitations.

Could there be a future glut of cruise ships? Or is guest capacity getting so large cities can’t handle the surge?
That crosses my mind now and then.

 

This resonates with me.  Not only are more and more cities pushing back hard against cruise ships and the entire industry, the events of the last few days have left me wondering what will happen next.  Cruise passengers in Barcelona were sprayed with water pistols by protestors and the Seven Seas Voyager cruise ship was recently surrounded by protestors sailing in smaller boats and was unable to dock in the port of Concarneau and the ship was forced to sail away and bypass the port.  Seems like an escalation to me and cruise lines seem totally unprepared.

 

I also have many friends who are experienced cruisers who are all sharing that their enjoyment levels have plummeted due to over crowded ships and ports.  It has me wondering how much longer they will continue to cruise.

[EtaC]

26 minutes ago, TRLD said:

while music walk has been somewhat successful, it came at the expense of staffing the production shows. Now they are restoring the production shows. Fully staffing those means the headcount has to come from somewhere.

 

In our case we sail on HAL in spite of music walk, not because of it. Music selection too curated and repetitive. We did like Lincoln Center, but thought they were two regimented. A good violin duo with a flexible selection would be our preference.

 

 

With HAL they get the numbers with the competitive, shorter itineraries, but really beef up their per passenger numbers on the longer unique itineraries.

Well, to each his own. I'd rather dance myself than watch others dance.

[BermudaBound2014]

29 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

This resonates with me.  Not only are more and more cities pushing back hard against cruise ships and the entire industry, the events of the last few days have left me wondering what will happen next.  Cruise passengers in Barcelona were sprayed with water pistols by protestors and the Seven Seas Voyager cruise ship was recently surrounded by protestors sailing in smaller boats and was unable to dock in the port of Concarneau and the ship was forced to sail away and bypass the port.  Seems like an escalation to me and cruise lines seem totally unprepared.

 

I also have many friends who are experienced cruisers who are all sharing that their enjoyment levels have plummeted due to over crowded ships and ports.  It has me wondering how much longer they will continue to cruise.

Protests against cruise ships are definitely on the uptick the past few years. 

 

I am very good friends with a merchant who had a storefront in Lahaina and he told lots of stories about how even the merchants didn't want cruise ship passengers as they tend not to spend as much money as land tourists. That is only part of the reason cities don’t want us.

 

The protests yesterday were against a 700 passenger Seven Seas cruise ship so in that case, size doesn’t matter. 

 

Sadly, quite often, cruisers are not well liked or welcomed. I think we are just misunderstood ;D  but times they are achanging 

 

https://cruiseradio.net/protesters-block-cruise-ship-from-docking-at-port/

 

 

Edited July 12 by BermudaBound2014

[atexsix]

On 7/11/2024 at 1:28 PM, chisoxfan said:

Above my pay grade but for general interest here is a RCCL revenue breakdown pp. CCL seems to be much lower revenue pp than NCL or RCCL. The food number looks unbelievably low. 

Of the $1,818, 68.8% ($1,251 per passenger) was spent on cruise fare and the remaining 31.2% ($567 per passenger) was spent onboard for everything from booze to t-shirts in the gift shop

Great graphic.  But so depressing, since the cruise lines would like us to believe it's all about the food and fuel, they fail to mention depreciation and marketing (looking at you wave season-every commercial break and sometimes more than one cruise line).

[TRLD]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Protests against cruise ships are definitely on the uptick the past few years. 

 

I am very good friends with a merchant who had a storefront in Lahaina and he told lots of stories about how even the merchants didn't want cruise ship passengers as they tend not to spend as much money as land tourists. That is only part of the reason cities don’t want us.

 

The protests yesterday were against a 700 passenger Seven Seas cruise ship so in that case, size doesn’t matter. 

 

Sadly, quite often, cruisers are not well liked or welcomed. I think we are just misunderstood ;D  but times they are achanging 

 

https://cruiseradio.net/protesters-block-cruise-ship-from-docking-at-port/

 

 

More likely the issues are growing because cruise passengers are well understood.

 

Compared to land based tourists cruise ship passengers spend very little. For example in Key West 50% of tourists were land based and 50% were from cruise ships  85% of tourist revenue came from land based and 15% came from cruise passengers.

 

If an area suffers from tourist over crowding  cruise ships are and easy target.

 

Then you have the completely separate issues where cruise ships are attacked for environmental reasons. Monterey eliminated cruise ship calls, even though they occured during the off season when the location was not busy. Helped businesses make it through that time of year  They did so because of "environnental" risk, even though there was no incidents in 20 years, and the major incidents resulting in pollution in Monterey Bay that have occured have had land based causes. The two major were a sewage spill from the county system, and an air dumping fuel over the Bay.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, TRLD said:

More likely the issues are growing because cruise passengers are well understood.

 

I wasn't being literal 🙄

[hamnabsma]

2 hours ago, TRLD said:

Monterey eliminated cruise ship calls, even though they occured during the off season when the location was not busy. Helped businesses make it through that time of year  They did so because of "environnental" risk, even though there was no incidents in 20 years, and the major incidents resulting in pollution in Monterey Bay that have occured have had land based causes. The two major were a sewage spill from the county system, and an air dumping fuel over the Bay.

 

"In 2019, cruise lines brought in about $1.5 million in revenue." (Monterey cruise tourism may come to an end (ksbw.com)) In 2019, there were 51k cruise visitors to Monterey. (Not so Crystal clear – Voices of Monterey Bay)

 

That's not even $30 per cruise visitor on average in 2019. Not sure if this includes the City of Monterey's per-head tax. I wouldn't call that helping businesses make it through lean times of year, partly also because Spring and Fall actually are not that lean, especially during all the holidays and inland/Bay Area heat waves.

 

In this case, I think the city figured the potential environmental impacts to the marine sanctuary outweighed the tourism gains from cruise ships. It's easier to control cruise ship access than to upgrade the decrepit infrastructure that leads to the frequent sewage leaks. And illegal dumping by cruise ships isn't like earthquakes: just because it hasn't happened in 20 years doesn't decrease the likelihood of it happening again in the future.

 

[TRLD]

1 hour ago, hamnabsma said:

 

"In 2019, cruise lines brought in about $1.5 million in revenue." (Monterey cruise tourism may come to an end (ksbw.com)) In 2019, there were 51k cruise visitors to Monterey. (Not so Crystal clear – Voices of Monterey Bay)

 

That's not even $30 per cruise visitor on average in 2019. Not sure if this includes the City of Monterey's per-head tax. I wouldn't call that helping businesses make it through lean times of year, partly also because Spring and Fall actually are not that lean, especially during all the holidays and inland/Bay Area heat waves.

 

In this case, I think the city figured the potential environmental impacts to the marine sanctuary outweighed the tourism gains from cruise ships. It's easier to control cruise ship access than to upgrade the decrepit infrastructure that leads to the frequent sewage leaks. And illegal dumping by cruise ships isn't like earthquakes: just because it hasn't happened in 20 years doesn't decrease the likelihood of it happening again in the future.

 

I live about 2 hours from Monterey and visit quite often during the time when cruise ships visited Which is a realtively short period of time when Monterey is rather cool and rainy. They also woukd only be there midweek so they would not even conflict with the higher weekend visitors. I visit then because it is pretty empty and hotel rates are very good.  

 

I know several of the restaurant owners in both the downtown and the wharf area. They all said that with the cruise ships not coming in they would be reducing staff below what they normally would during that time of year. While cruisers do not spend much what they do spend is often at restaurants.

 

Considering that they had a sewer spill dump over a million gallons of untreated sewage into the bay, the risk of a cruise ship problem is a pretty low probability event. Especially since the Bay is a very heavily monitored area and all of the cruise lines were very aware.

 

Guess they should also shutdown the airport since they have had more problems with planes dumping fuel over the bay.

 

The biggest reason was more that cruise ships ruined their view and some just did not want them there.  Similar logic to some of the cities in Norway. The city council meeting where it was discussed is online.  

Edited July 13 by TRLD