Barclays Cuts CCL earnings estimates

[elcuchio24]

https://news.fidelity.com/news/news.jhtml?cat=Top.Investing.RT&articleid=201201181143RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_TRE80H1HA_1&IMG=Y

 

The info about the TA's booking drops is interesting as well.......

[H82seaUgo]

i guess mr mickey should have done more than just tweeting about his beloved basketball team.

[big_duck]

Some good points and really dumb ones in the article. I guess its balanced.

 

Good point - Those who have cruised before are less likely to cruise again. While it is less likely that veteran cruises won't.

 

I don't think poor Mickey ever had a chance to "control the story". Carnival and or Costa have put out numerous press releases since the tragedy which with the exception of the "90 million loss" press release have been ignored.

 

Perhaps a video of Mickey hanging Captain Chicken of the Sea from the yardarm would help.

[H82seaUgo]

Some good points and really dumb ones in the article. I guess its balanced.

 

Good point - Those who have cruised before are less likely to cruise again. While it is less likely that veteran cruises won't.

 

I don't think poor Mickey ever had a chance to "control the story". Carnival and or Costa have put out numerous press releases since the tragedy which with the exception of the "90 million loss" press release have been ignored.

 

Perhaps a video of Mickey hanging Captain Chicken of the Sea from the yardarm would help.

 

this is why carnival should have been schmoozing their returning customers as opposed to trying to get new blood.

 

that newbie pipeline may have been cut off, and the returning are moving on to other lines.....

[elcuchio24]

Some good points and really dumb ones in the article. I guess its balanced.

 

Good point - Those who have cruised before are less likely to cruise again. While it is less likely that veteran cruises won't.

 

I don't think poor Mickey ever had a chance to "control the story". Carnival and or Costa have put out numerous press releases since the tragedy which with the exception of the "90 million loss" press release have been ignored.

 

Perhaps a video of Mickey hanging Captain Chicken of the Sea from the yardarm would help.

 

Yeah I thought that too when they were saying this needs to be responded to with video and pictures.....what, like a picture of Mickey shaking his fist at the captain?

 

Who knows how accurate the info about the TA's forcasting large booking reductions are, but interesting initial data at least.

[elcuchio24]

this is why carnival should have been schmoozing their returning customers as opposed to trying to get new blood.

 

that newbie pipeline may have been cut off, and the returning are moving on to other lines.....

 

And with this kind of incident: the newbies scare easy;)

[sjn911]

Yeah I thought that too when they were saying this needs to be responded to with video and pictures.....what, like a picture of Mickey shaking his fist at the captain?

 

Who knows how accurate the info about the TA's forcasting large booking reductions are, but interesting initial data at least.

 

Like the President going to ground zero. Rumsfield helping at the Pentagon. Statements immediately about what thorough evaluations of this occurance will be taken and how...and pomises for study and future different preparedness...promises to not hide the truth and learn from the tragedy and make himself overseer of a small group seeing how every survivor gets home and taken care of, does not have to promise settlements to do that...Sarah

[H82seaUgo]

i'm still scratching my head over their first message from the brand ambassador was he was mad people were comparing this incident to the titanic.

 

huh????

[crewsweeper]

Some good points and really dumb ones in the article. I guess its balanced.

 

Good point - Those who have cruised before are less likely to cruise again. While it is less likely that veteran cruises won't.

 

 

I read that the other way. Similar story in USAToday this AM. People who haven't cruised may not now, people who have cruised in th epast, aren't showing any signs of not cruising again. No drop/cancellation of previous bookings from the TA perspective. But you get the same short term affect after a plane crash.

 

As far as the reduction in earnings, while the title of the thread makes it appear like the stock is in a death spiral (it's up slightly today BTW), in actuality it's a prudent move by WS analysts to lower expectations due to uncertainty. Note the hard earnings cuts are around 8%. The soft 29% cut by Barclays is worded in such a way they can revise it upward once the financial picture gets clearer down the road, since these are annual, not quarterly forecasts.

 

Not defending owning Carnival stock, just pointing out the corporation isn't on the verge of going the way of Twinkies.

[sjn911]

i'm still scratching my head over their first message from the brand ambassador was he was mad people were comparing this incident to the titanic.

 

huh????

 

I do not go there but yes...any major mishap like this ..MY GOD IN HEAVEN..I can not beleive the comments on this board..bottom line..too many of us as a society have never been in a situation where OK..if you do not help 6 people put this haystak fire out... the ranch is GONE....same for the one on the neighbor's place. Same for the small apartmnent fire.

 

So much can be learned about how we could all help each other let alone the big guy at the top doing SOMETHING REAL PROACTVE EMPATHETIC AND PRONTO...with all that money and a jet at his disposal??

[elcuchio24]

I read that the other way. Similar story in USAToday this AM. People who haven't cruised may not now, people who have cruised in th epast, aren't showing any signs of not cruising again. No drop/cancellation of previous bookings from the TA perspective. But you get the same short term affect after a plane crash.

 

As far as the reduction in earnings, while the title of the thread makes it appear like the stock is in a death spiral (it's up slightly today BTW), in actuality it's a prudent move by WS analysts to lower expectations due to uncertainty. Note the hard earnings cuts are around 8%. The soft 29% cut by Barclays is worded in such a way they can revise it upward once the financial picture gets clearer down the road, since these are annual, not quarterly forecasts.

 

Not defending owning Carnival stock, just pointing out the corporation isn't on the verge of going the way of Twinkies.

 

I certainly wasn't trying to portray the stock in a death spiral, I just think that the drop yesterday and mild gain today are just the begining. Don't expect yesterday to be the only hit on the CCL equity. No one can tell the future, and of course these analysts change their tune all the time, but if this whole incident wipes out a good portion of total profits for 2012, that is no small matter.

[Sargent_Schultz]

A 3% gain is more than a "mild" gain and RCL is tracking with CCL. The drop yesterday was a knee jerk reaction.

 

Uncle Mickey doesn't need photo ops like politicians do.

[sjn911]

A 3% gain is more than a "mild" gain and RCL is tracking with CCL. The drop yesterday was a knee jerk reaction.

 

Uncle Mickey doesn't need photo ops like politicians do.

 

Funny, but nothing to do with what signals really doing something more than what was done, ah the way of big business..right away up with deals speculation..and i think the future of stock could still be down after initial deals done..Sarah

[firefly333]

this is why carnival should have been schmoozing their returning customers as opposed to trying to get new blood.

 

that newbie pipeline may have been cut off, and the returning are moving on to other lines.....

 

I booked today and was trying to call my PVP with my credit card number during duplicate bridge and told some folks why I had to keep using the phone and several did ask me if I was not worried and I said no.

 

People also asked me if the price was lower because of the tradegy. I said I dont think the rates have had time to be adjusted because of something last weekend, it just happened to be a good rate.

[elcuchio24]

I booked today and was trying to call my PVP with my credit card number during duplicate bridge and told some folks why I had to keep using the phone and several did ask me if I was not worried and I said no.

 

People also asked me if the price was lower because of the tradegy. I said I dont think the rates have had time to be adjusted because of something last weekend, it just happened to be a good rate.

 

Couldn't have happened at a worse time as booking months go.....but we really won't know the effect on bookings for at least a couple months I'd bet?

[big_duck]

I read that the other way. Similar story in USAToday this AM. People who haven't cruised may not now, people who have cruised in th epast, aren't showing any signs of not cruising again. No drop/cancellation of previous bookings from the TA perspective. But you get the same short term affect after a plane crash.

 

As far as the reduction in earnings, while the title of the thread makes it appear like the stock is in a death spiral (it's up slightly today BTW), in actuality it's a prudent move by WS analysts to lower expectations due to uncertainty. Note the hard earnings cuts are around 8%. The soft 29% cut by Barclays is worded in such a way they can revise it upward once the financial picture gets clearer down the road, since these are annual, not quarterly forecasts.

 

Not defending owning Carnival stock, just pointing out the corporation isn't on the verge of going the way of Twinkies.

 

I kind of screwed the pooch righting that, should have read:

 

Those who have not cruised before are less likely to cruise. While it is less likely that this will stop veteran cruisers.