CCL ships and stock to the junk yard

[chipmaster]

Vaccine is still going to be another 9 months or so, winter looks worst than grim.  Leadership won’t make a change till February at the earliest.

 

Ships lined up for the junkyard and I could see Carnival debt become junk status.

 

Any predictions when real cruising will start w/o an outbreak killing the party ?

 

 

Edited November 12, 2020 by chipmaster

[Calnev1]

I can also see Carnival's debt becoming junk status.   Quite easy to see, actually, as it already happened months ago.  https://www.thestreet.com/investing/carnival-corp-credit-ratings-slashed-to-junk-status-by-sp

 

Still, I am in glass half full mode right now with the Pfizer news.  Even if it takes many months to distribute the vaccine, I think Carnival's creditor will allow Carniva to hang on.

[BlerkOne]

In other news, Carnival is issuing another 1.5 billion of stock and I think still has 0.5 billion authorized from the last time, or about $2 billion, if they want.

 

Carnival continues to reduce cash burn, whereas NCL keeps increasing cash burn.

[slavens_09]

7 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

In other news, Carnival is issuing another 1.5 billion of stock and I think still has 0.5 billion authorized from the last time, or about $2 billion, if they want.

 

Carnival continues to reduce cash burn, whereas NCL keeps increasing cash burn.

BlerkOne check this out.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5729/?source=99360&fbclid=IwAR1x7HismlzcEb6DfL3Z4IBt9u1-I7l7ZZN9sMTNw3vD3YjH4sWaZ7vUSWY
 

I can’t for the life of me figure out why they aren’t wanting to start off with ships that are “paid for” thereby more profitable.
 

Must have something to do with the efficiency of the that makes the newer ones more profitable.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, slavens_09 said:

BlerkOne check this out.

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5729/?source=99360&fbclid=IwAR1x7HismlzcEb6DfL3Z4IBt9u1-I7l7ZZN9sMTNw3vD3YjH4sWaZ7vUSWY
 

I can’t for the life of me figure out why they aren’t wanting to start off with ships that are “paid for” thereby more profitable.
 

Must have something to do with the efficiency of the that makes the newer ones more profitable.

 

The ships that aren't paid for are also depreciating asset, regardless of whether they sail you got to make payment and depreciate the asset. 

[jimbo5544]

25 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

The ships that aren't paid for are also depreciating asset, regardless of whether they sail you got to make payment and depreciate the asset. 

Which ships of Carnival are not paid for?

[BlerkOne]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Which ships of Carnival are not paid for?

Most if not all are being used for collateral.

[slavens_09]

16 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Most if not all are being used for collateral.

But how come they aren’t planning on restarting with their “more profitable older paid for ships”?  Oh and you’re the one that said the older ships were more profitable. 
 

Newer more efficient ships are the most profitable. 

[slavens_09]

On 5/24/2020 at 4:56 PM, BlerkOne said:

 

Newer tend to be bigger, are financed, and need more people to break even.

 

Newer on one line does not mean bigger or more efficient than a newer ship on a different line. Reread as necessary.

 

On 5/23/2020 at 12:13 PM, BlerkOne said:

 

Ships that are already paid for have a lower costs than new ships bought with financing. It takes a while to really break even. It is one of the reasons for refurbishing and transforming ships, instead of starting with a new hull.

 

Mardi Gras and Victory/Radiance are different ship building companies, difference shipyards, different countries. I think Carnival would plan on completing both. What if a second covid wave strikes one country first? You might at least stand a chance of completing the other ship. Mardi Gras is larger but also has some limitations due to size and also the LNG requirements.

 

On 5/24/2020 at 11:33 AM, BlerkOne said:

 

IF the CFO is correct (no bets on that one). Is Grandeur paid for and/or are financing costs included in his numbers? But for this exercise, assume he is approximately correct.

 

Using basic math skills:

Symphony of the Seas - 5518 capacity x 30% = 1655.4 passengers break even

Grandeur of the Seas - 2446 capacity x 50% = 1223 passengers break even

 

1655.4 is > 1223

 

I will keep my correct opinion, thank you.

All still wrong. Don’t see any older “more profitable paid for ships” in the most recent restart plan.
 

Why aren’t the remaining Fantasy class ships the first to start?! They have been paid for the longest and should generate the most profit according to you.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

Two identical ships - one paid for, the other financed. The paid for ship has lower costs because there are no financing costs that have to be included in fixed costs.

 

Besides fixed costs there are variable costs, etc. Cost is only part of the equation for calculating profit.

You also need revenue figures. Economics 101.

 

[slavens_09]

6 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

Two identical ships - one paid for, the other financed. The paid for ship has lower costs because there are no financing costs that have to be included in fixed costs.

 

Besides fixed costs there are variable costs, etc. Cost is only part of the equation for calculating profit.

You also need revenue figures. Economics 101.

 

The argument wasn’t ever over two identical ships. Nice try on re framing.

 

It was about smaller, less efficient, older “paid for ships” being more profitable than a newer, much bigger and efficient “financed” ship. 

The newer bigger ships are more profitable. Period.
 

 

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, slavens_09 said:

The argument wasn’t ever over two identical ships. Nice try on re framing.

 

It was about smaller, less efficient, older “paid for ships” being more profitable than a newer, much bigger and efficient “financed” ship. 

The newer bigger ships are more profitable. Period.
 

 

Why are you arguing with yourself? I certainly never mentioned profit. Nice try on re-framing

[slavens_09]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Why are you arguing with yourself? I certainly never mentioned profit. Nice try on re-framing

Costs are lower per passenger on bigger, newer, more efficient ships. Which makes them more profitable.

 

Are those terms you understand?

[BlerkOne]

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

On 11/12/2020 at 10:56 AM, chipmaster said:

Vaccine is still going to be another 9 months or so, winter looks worst than grim.  Leadership won’t make a change till February at the earliest.

 

Ships lined up for the junkyard and I could see Carnival debt become junk status.

 

Any predictions when real cruising will start w/o an outbreak killing the party ?

 

 

How sad that you are such a negative person.

[Purvis1231]

I believe the vacines will end the pandemic in 6 months but this may not save the cruise lines. I made a prediction months ago that when it is threw Royal Carnival Lines will rise from the ashes with half the ships and a lot of ships being sent off to sail for Chinese cruises lines.  I think this is still a likely outcome. I have three Carnival cruises book for the next two years I am hopeful I can sail on them but I am not overly confident that the current bookings will stand.

Edited November 15, 2020 by Purvis1231

[ALWAYS CRUZIN]

Ships in the junk yards is nothing new at all. Old ships are disassembled and sold for the steel and more for as long as they have been built. February is NOT the earliest for the vaccine to be distributed. The elderly and the first responders. Nurses, doctors and alike. This will happen way before years end. I give it, in a few weeks from now. The vaccine is ready for this distribution. Just waiting for the FDA to give the go ahead. Mass distribution will start as soon as it gets the go ahead. Pfizer is currently stock piling up the vaccine getting it ready for distribution approval. CVS, Walgreens, clinics and more will be giving the shots as soon as they have them. The army will make sure they are distributed to all as soon as possible. This was set up by Trumps virus organization long ago. You can speculate all you want. I for one am very confident that it will be available even sooner if the FDA does not drag their behind on this. It is in their hands.