Eurodam Far Below Capacity - what's up?

[mightycruisequeen]

5 hours ago, SumoCitrus said:

 

Correct. Cruise lines are going to have to decide whether they want to have passengers or close up shop and call it. CCL stock trading below $10 today...

Yup, but that's not a popular viewpoint on this forum, so I'm guessing it'll be deleted.

[mightycruisequeen]

On 6/11/2022 at 10:25 PM, Taters said:

A lot of potential passengers aren't cruising because they are required to be vaccinated against Covid. 

 

Another batch of potential passengers aren't going to cruise until mask mandates go away.

 

Traveling is hard these days with frequent airline schedule shuffling and cancellations, and some folks aren't interested in dealing with this scenario.

 

There are a lot of reasons why folks aren't cruising right now, but IMHO, these are just a few of the reasons that ships are sailing below capacity.

I'd say they're the biggest reasons that ships aren't sailing full.

[Guest ldtr]

17 minutes ago, mightycruisequeen said:

I'd say they're the biggest reasons that ships aren't sailing full.

Considering that over 70% in the UShas been vaccinated and the other developed countries tend to have an even higher percentage. It would not appear to be a major reason. Maybe one of the more minor ones, but biggest not really.

[mightycruisequeen]

1 minute ago, ldtr said:

Considering that over 70% in the UShas been vaccinated and the other developed countries tend to have an even higher percentage. It would not appear to be a major reason. Maybe one of the more minor ones, but biggest not really.

There were 3 reasons that Taters presented (and I quoted), not just vaccination.  I believe those are the 3 biggest reasons ships are not sailing full.  You're still free to disagree, of course.

[idiebabe]

50 minutes ago, jeh10641 said:

You were lucky to have so few on board. A lot of cruise lines are now canceling passengers already booked because of crew shortages. However, there was some good news in that area as crew staffing sites are being expanded and turn outs have been high.

 

Jim

We were told that Staffing Shortages are also due to a hold up of issuing Visas by the U.S. Gov’t. To those who are ready to come work.  
 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 13, 2022 by idiebabe

[J&Dhighdesert]

Concerning the rough sea issue, I didn’t think it was so bad.  The dance show was cancelled because of the weather.  On Friday, speak to the captain, he said the swells were much higher than predicated.  It just made sleeping so much nicer.

Jo

[Guest ldtr]

2 hours ago, mightycruisequeen said:

There were 3 reasons that Taters presented (and I quoted), not just vaccination.  I believe those are the 3 biggest reasons ships are not sailing full.  You're still free to disagree, of course.

I do not think that those three are the biggest reason.  I went over the numbers concerning vaccination and why there is some impact not a major one. 

 

The mask requirements have mostly been gone for several months.  Ship occupancy did not change much after they went away.  They are now coming back on a limited number of cruises, but only starting a couple of weeks ago so not impact the current cruises.

 

The air problems pretty started at the end of May when the summer travel season started, most of the current trips were booked before then.  So not much of an impact on current occupancy.   It might impact new trip planning, but not much of what is happening today.

 

Most people of CC, are hard core cruisers, most cruisers are not hard core.  

 

I expect that the impact on cruising is mostly:

 

1. Cruising got very bad press with the problems at the start of the pandemic.  While hard core cruisers might be in a hurry to jump back on for most it is one of many vacation alternatives and it got reputation that many have not yet forgotten.

 

2. When cruising stopped for over a year, many people, even those that like cruising found other activities and travel to replace them.  Some have come back, some have split there travel budget, some are still out enjoying other travel.

 

3. When most trips you have some control.  If you do not like a hotel you can check out, what to stay longer you can change your flights.  When you cruise you surrender a lot of control to the cruise line and your options if things go south are very limited.  While that was attractive pre covid, the last thing many people what now is to give up control, especially since the cruise lines have not returned to the degree of certainty that they used to have.  Just look at the number of cancellations, changes in itinerary, etc. Post Covid people want some degree of control in what they do.  

 

Then one can get into the economy, inflation, masking vs not masking, vaccination, testing, etc.

 

The reality is cruising has lost a lot due to the pandemic, in its attractiveness to the general public. The industry will have to earn that business back.  At this point there is little sign that they are doing what is necessary and one could expect that the industry will need to right size for the market today, and will then be able to grow from there.

[jeh10641]

13 hours ago, ldtr said:

I do not think that those three are the biggest reason.  I went over the numbers concerning vaccination and why there is some impact not a major one. 

 

The mask requirements have mostly been gone for several months.  Ship occupancy did not change much after they went away.  They are now coming back on a limited number of cruises, but only starting a couple of weeks ago so not impact the current cruises.

 

The air problems pretty started at the end of May when the summer travel season started, most of the current trips were booked before then.  So not much of an impact on current occupancy.   It might impact new trip planning, but not much of what is happening today.

 

Most people of CC, are hard core cruisers, most cruisers are not hard core.  

 

I expect that the impact on cruising is mostly:

 

1. Cruising got very bad press with the problems at the start of the pandemic.  While hard core cruisers might be in a hurry to jump back on for most it is one of many vacation alternatives and it got reputation that many have not yet forgotten.

 

2. When cruising stopped for over a year, many people, even those that like cruising found other activities and travel to replace them.  Some have come back, some have split there travel budget, some are still out enjoying other travel.

 

3. When most trips you have some control.  If you do not like a hotel you can check out, what to stay longer you can change your flights.  When you cruise you surrender a lot of control to the cruise line and your options if things go south are very limited.  While that was attractive pre covid, the last thing many people what now is to give up control, especially since the cruise lines have not returned to the degree of certainty that they used to have.  Just look at the number of cancellations, changes in itinerary, etc. Post Covid people want some degree of control in what they do.  

 

Then one can get into the economy, inflation, masking vs not masking, vaccination, testing, etc.

 

The reality is cruising has lost a lot due to the pandemic, in its attractiveness to the general public. The industry will have to earn that business back.  At this point there is little sign that they are doing what is necessary and one could expect that the industry will need to right size for the market today, and will then be able to grow from there.

You make some good points. I will only add the shortage of crew as a major problem.

 

Jim

[BermudaBound2014]

15 hours ago, ldtr said:

The reality is cruising has lost a lot due to the pandemic, in its attractiveness to the general public. 

 

This ^

 

I do disagree with you and believe that vaccination/masking/quarantining is playing a larger roll in low occupancy; but without a doubt Johnny Public's image of cruising in a petri dish is a significant factor.

 

@jeh10641 According to social, current protocols have a lot to do with crew shortages. Crew do not want to wear a mask. Many do not want to vaccinate (crew is typically younger and do not suffer comorbidities.) Others are bitter over how they were treated during the shutdown. 

 

It's hard to quantify anything except the stock value which has dropped close to 70% since cruising resumed and is currently vacillating in the crash of March 2020 price range. The Dow is terrible. Cruise stock is catastrophic. 

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[jeh10641]

On 6/14/2022 at 10:13 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

This ^

 

I do disagree with you and believe that vaccination/masking/quarantining is playing a larger roll in low occupancy; but without a doubt Johnny Public's image of cruising in a petri dish is a significant factor.

 

@jeh10641 According to social, current protocols have a lot to do with crew shortages. Crew do not want to wear a mask. Many do not want to vaccinate (crew is typically younger and do not suffer comorbidities.) Others are bitter over how they were treated during the shutdown. 

 

It's hard to quantify anything except the stock value which has dropped close to 70% since cruising resumed and is currently vacillating in the crash of March 2020 price range. The Dow is terrible. Cruise stock is catastrophic. 

 

Hi, BermudaBound2014,

Agreed on stock prices. However, I just purchased additional Carnival shares and added Norwegian to my portfolio because of the price and because I believe the industry will recover quite nicely over the next 12 months (as will our economy).

 

Jim

Edited June 15, 2022 by jeh10641
Did not write anything.

[groundloop]

2 hours ago, jeh10641 said:

Hi, BermudaBound2014,

Agreed on stock prices. However, I just purchased additional Carnival shares and added Norwegian to my portfolio because of the price and because I believe the industry will recover quite nicely over the next 12 months (as will our economy).

 

Jim

 

 

I totally agree.  

 

I find it somewhat amusing that during the pandemic we were told by economists that as we recovered there would be shortages and inflation, and now that that's happening everyone is shocked.  I'm seeing this period in time as an excellent opportunity to buy investments at bargain basement discounts.

[DaveOKC]

Just received a notice from HAL on our Aug Eurodam sailing.  We are now leaving Seattle at 3 PM and some of the port times have been reduced.  Luckily we are arriving a day earlier, so no biggie, but I feel for those coming in the same day.  I assume this is in response to higher fuel costs.

 

[groundloop]

16 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Just received a notice from HAL on our Aug Eurodam sailing.  We are now leaving Seattle at 3 PM and some of the port times have been reduced.  Luckily we are arriving a day earlier, so no biggie, but I feel for those coming in the same day.  I assume this is in response to higher fuel costs.

 

 

 

Yes, they did that to us for the sailing we're on right now with no explanation as to why.  It really sucked for our stop at Ketchikan, after completing our shore excursion we had no time at all to explore (although HAL did save me money in that my wife had no time to shop   😁 )

 

[idiebabe]

17 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Just received a notice from HAL on our Aug Eurodam sailing.  We are now leaving Seattle at 3 PM and some of the port times have been reduced.  Luckily we are arriving a day earlier, so no biggie, but I feel for those coming in the same day.  I assume this is in response to higher fuel costs.

 

They did that to us on our May 28th Cruise.   The stop in Victoria was a total waste.   It was changed to 8 pm and the Ship didn’t clear until 9:20 pm.  All Ship Tours cancelled and we cancelled a Private with Viator.  I don’t think many got off at that point.   Too short a time in Ketchikan!  

[strickerj]

On 6/12/2022 at 1:32 PM, idiebabe said:

Count your Blessings!  We were on 5/28 Sailing and had almost 2000 Guests.  Way too much for the Dining Staff in the DR to handle especially after having 1300 Guests the week before and being Short-staffed, etc.  

 

Enjoy it!! 

 

We were on it the week before (5/21) and it seemed fairly empty, but we weren't really sure what to expect.

[Guest ldtr]

On 6/15/2022 at 5:52 PM, groundloop said:

 

 

I totally agree.  

 

I find it somewhat amusing that during the pandemic we were told by economists that as we recovered there would be shortages and inflation, and now that that's happening everyone is shocked.  I'm seeing this period in time as an excellent opportunity to buy investments at bargain basement discounts.

Except that shortages that have the largest impact upon inflation really are not due to Covid, but instead occurred as a result of Russia invading Ukraine taking a substantial bite out of the worlds supply of oil and refined products, food and fertilizer.

 

The inflationary issues prior to Feb were largely due to labor shortage and housing.

 

There have been some supply chain issues that these days are mostly due to shutdowns in China, many of which were working themselves out.