After Final Payment Bookings

I'm not at all looking at close-in bookings, I'm looking into next fall, where those that plan far out are looking, and booking and filling higher category cabins for their annual vacations, as opposed to last minute fill-in vacations this winter.. There's a Connie in November, and Infinity in 2017 I'm watching.

 

The very limited cruising audience in these forums knows to do the math as to value of perks, but new cruisers and casual cruisers think about getting value, like a better cabin for some extra cost and with perks they see it as a no brainer. Lots of people think, I'll pay extra for a better cabin if it's not a whole lot more. Like people that pay to upgrade to 1st class on an airplane.

 

I personally, no longer fall for the 123 perks, I drink about as much as the package covers, so pay as I go, sometimes come out ahead and will especially do so now it Elite+ benefits covering coffee drinks. But new and non regular cruisers see high value in unlimited drinks.

 

There are LOTS of people who hear "get all 3 perks!" and don't bother to determine the value/benefit, it's why it's a great marketing scheme! A 7 day cruise is worth

• Beverages: $49x7days x 2 people = $686 plus 15% gratuity on that = $102.90
  
• 7 days gratuities $12.50 (concierge rate) x 7 days x 2 people = $175
  
• $300 OBC
  
• Total value: $1263.90
  

 

That's a pretty big number, especially relative to the sampling you presented, to new cruisers and casual cruisers who drink and are not elite and can't get free booze and coffees at Elite events.

 

In your sample go from 2C with 1 perk to C2 with all 3, assuming beverages as primary perk adds $475 in real value, yet the C2 is only $350 more, $125 in actual added cash value.

 

The 2C cost of $949 will add onto it $12/dayx7x2people = $168, making it's real cost $1117, and the $300 OBC can be taken out at casino if not spent on anything else netting $300 less 5% = $285 cash in pocket.

Edited January 17, 2015 by cle-guy

I'm not at all looking at close-in bookings, I'm looking into next fall, where those that plan far out are looking, and booking and filling higher category cabins for their annual vacations, as opposed to last minute fill-in vacations this winter.. There's a Connie in November, and Infinity in 2017 I'm watching.

I was interested in which sailings you were referring only because you asserted that all the concierge-class and above were sold out due to 123Go AI. This was totally at odds with every sailing I've followed. Perhaps you are looking at more exotic and/or shoulder season itineraries.

 

As you note, I have a special interest in watching inventory "close-in", so I can tell you that, with very very few exceptions, most cruise ships after final payment are nowhere near full (some are probably only half-full) and have plenty of inventory of all types and categories. So while I may not be able to dissuade you from booking early, I do wish to be clear that, post-final-payment, there are generally plenty of staterooms and almost always at a better net value than booking prior to final payment--promo or no promo.

 

And finally, I disagree with your characterization that my vacation strategy is somehow only useful for "fill-in" or last-minute vacations. If you have followed any of my previous posts, you would know that my late cruise booking strategy (i.e. book only after final payment) is quite consistent with my long-term trip planning. Like others, I plan my big vacations 12-24 months in advance. As with most people, I book my air a few months early and book my hotels well in advance. The ONLY difference is that I DON'T book the actual cruise until 14-60 days out (for all the reasons I have previously noted). It is a simple matter to book your airfare and hotels to "box" your cruise sailings and book accordingly. This strategy saves hundreds of dollars per trip.

Edited January 17, 2015 by Terpnut

I was interested in which sailings you were referring only because you asserted that all the concierge-class and above were sold out due to 123Go AI. This was totally at odds with every sailing I've followed. Perhaps you are looking at more exotic and/or shoulder season itineraries.

 

As you note, I have a special interest in watching inventory "close-in", so I can tell you that, with very very few exceptions, most cruise ships after final payment are nowhere near full (some are probably only half-full) and have plenty of inventory of all types and categories. So while I may not be able to dissuade you from booking early, I do wish to be clear that, post-final-payment, there are generally plenty of staterooms and almost always at a better net value than booking prior to final payment--promo or no promo.

 

RCI in its last 10k filing stated clearly that this caribbean season and Q4/Q1 was going to be very weak for them, and they had adjusted numbers accordingly. It's no surprise there are great deals now. I just snagged a PH on December 29 for less than a CS was selling for a few moths ago on Summit next week Jan 24.

 

Coming up, we see X losing Century, Connie relocating to Dubai, Quantum going to Asia, - they are actively cutting Caribbean Capacity the next 2 years.

 

I do book early, and cancel and rebook as needed. I tend to do well with the Captains club % off discounts actually. I also book very last minute when I find a deal I can't refuse.

 

And finally, I disagree with your characterization that my vacation strategy is somehow only useful for "fill-in" or last-minute vacations. If you have followed any of my previous posts, you would know that my late cruise booking strategy (i.e. book only after final payment) is quite consistent with my long-term trip planning. Like others, I plan my big vacations 12-24 months in advance. As with most people, I book my air a few months early and book my hotels well in advance. The ONLY difference is that I DON'T book the actual cruise until 14-60 days out (for all the reasons I have previously noted).

 

I';m a proponent of this strategy. Book a flight to Miami on a thursday returning Tuesday a week later, then you can look to any number of FLL/MIA cruises on any line very last minute. I booked Air from the UK well ahead of my actual cruise booking for a TA. I'm just saying, X and RCI have a clearly stated goal of changing this around in the upcoming years, so this strategy is losing a lot of its effectiveness.

 

My UK TA on Eclipse, has added 3 days and several ports to it and its sold very well, at very high fares, so Im skipping this year. Its down to 14% open cabins, all selling at highest fares since on-sale, and a Sky suite is selling for $20,398 as a solo, last year I did 13 nights in PH for $8000 as a solo. Cheapest veranda now $4618 solo, last year cheapest was $598 solo. Sure extra days, but only 3 added to the 13 of last year.

 

Reflection TA, down to only 16% open cabins, and all are selling at their highest fare since going on sale.

 

TA's used to be cheap and reliable for last minute bookings.

I';m a proponent of this strategy. Book a flight to Miami on a thursday returning Tuesday a week later, then you can look to any number of FLL/MIA cruises on any line very last minute. I booked Air from the UK well ahead of my actual cruise booking for a TA. I'm just saying, X and RCI have a clearly stated goal of changing this around in the upcoming years, so this strategy is losing a lot of its effectiveness.

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree because, regardless of RCI's hopes, I'm not seeing any evidence of this on peak season cruises.

Right now you can get a 9 night Caribbean cruise (4 night+5 night B2B) on Connie for $498pp with $150 OBC from 24 Jan -2 Feb.

 

I'd be willing to bet it was a LOT more expensive 6-8 weeks ago.

 

 

There is a 7 night Caribbean cruise on Reflection leaving 21 Feb for $466pp with $200 OBC.

 

I'd offer even BETTER odds for the same on this one.

 

 

There's a 10 nighter on Equinox for $799pp with $225 OBC on 27 March.

 

If you want exotic itineraries that are in limited supply, they are ALWAYS going to be more expensive, and can EASILY sell out.

 

 

If you have flexibility, you can take ADVANTAGE of changing cabin supplies.

 

If you have a work schedule, you are (unfortunately) at the MERCY of the same market forces.

 

 

I am looking forward to my SEVENTH Celebrity T/A in a few months. 14 nights on Silhouette for $699pp with $450 OBC.

 

And this one is tied for MOST EXPENSIVE. The LEAST expensive was $449pp BEFORE the $250 OBC. It definitely PAYS to WAIT and SHOP.

Edited January 19, 2015 by teecee60

Speaking of after final payment prices, for anyone who does not mind an inside cabin it looks like Celebrity is offering some really nice prices right now on their Cybersale.

 

For example

 

5 night Caribbean cruises on Constellation for $289 or $299 per person

 

or 7 night cruise on Reflection for $499.

 

 

 

I think this is a direct result of the 123go and all inclusive package. Those who normally book an interior up graded to an ocean view in order to be eligible for the perks. Same holds true for CC and Aqua class. This left a large inventory of interior rooms. It seems like this never ending promo is doing what it set out to do which is to fill the ships and sell the higher end rooms first. I also noticed that on some sailings it is less expensive to book a veranda than an ocean view. Some of the ocean views are going for over $1000 for a 7 day cruise to Bermuda in early May which is considered off season.

 

My UK TA on Eclipse, has added 3 days and several ports to it and its sold very well, at very high fares, so Im skipping this year. Its down to 14% open cabins, all selling at highest fares since on-sale, and a Sky suite is selling for $20,398 as a solo, last year I did 13 nights in PH for $8000 as a solo. Cheapest veranda now $4618 solo, last year cheapest was $598 solo. Sure extra days, but only 3 added to the 13 of last year.

 

Reflection TA, down to only 16% open cabins, and all are selling at their highest fare since going on sale.

 

TA's used to be cheap and reliable for last minute bookings.

 

Curt, I was on the Eclipse TA with you last year and got lucky with a great "Exciting Deal" just after final payment...under $2000 total for single occupany balcony cabin. Well over a thousand less than the same cabin price prior to final payment. Got a similar deal for Equinox TA in 2013.

 

However, I'm hesitant to again wait until after final payment to book the upcoming Silhouette TA. To be safe, I had booked the same cabin for the Silhouette TA while onboard last year's Eclipse TA at a fairly decent price...only $500 more than what I paid for last year's Eclipse and over a thousand less than current price. I was considering once again cancelling and hoping to rebook at a lower fare after final payment but am hesitant. The balcony cabin I'm holding is in a great location and the way the spring TA's are selling, not sure it's worth the gamble.

 

Btw...Curt, it was so gracious of you to host our CC group of those sharing the bus to London in your wonderful suite. We had a great time and it was a highlight of the cruise. Thanks again. :)

I think this is a direct result of the 123go and all inclusive package. Those who normally book an interior up graded to an ocean view in order to be eligible for the perks. Same holds true for CC and Aqua class. This left a large inventory of interior rooms. It seems like this never ending promo is doing what it set out to do which is to fill the ships and sell the higher end rooms first. I also noticed that on some sailings it is less expensive to book a veranda than an ocean view. Some of the ocean views are going for over $1000 for a 7 day cruise to Bermuda in early May which is considered off season.

 

I'm not finding that 123Go is actually moving premium categories any more than without 123Go - all that is actually happening is X is able to buttress early booking fares a little better. So after final payment, there just as many premium category staterooms as interior staterooms available on most sailings. IOW the post - final payment world for most peak season sailings looks much unchanged to me.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Terpnut

I'm not finding that 123Go is actually moving premium categories any more than without 123Go - all that is actually happening is X is able to buttress early booking fares a little better. So after final payment, there just as many premium category staterooms as interior staterooms available on most sailings. IOW the post - final payment world for most peak season sailings looks much unchanged to me.

 

Here's one: November 28 2015 Connie sailing - no AQ or Concierge available, all suites sold out.

 

2/20/17 Equinox, all AQ and Concierge sold out. All suites sold out.

 

3/15/15 Eclipse,. all suites gone, all AQ gone, 1 of 3 Concierge classes gone, and balance of Concierges selling for highest fare since on sale, whole OV are at lowest price since on sale, and Verandas have been reduced recently.

And I don't think the train has any luggage restrictions, do they? I've always wondered.... but the train from Cleveland is just not convenient for anything. Stops once a day at like 3:25 am or something.

Correct, all luggage is free. :):)

 

I assume you are both speaking of AMTRAK as the train in question. It is true that the luggage you take on the train is "free", but just like airlines, there are guidelines on how many pieces and what size those pieces must be in order for you to travel with them. Not sure how or if they monitor for this and whether or not anyone has ever been asked to pay extra for luggage that is clearly "over-sized" based on their posted guidelines.

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree because, regardless of RCI's hopes, I'm not seeing any evidence of this on peak season cruises.

 

Check out the Feb 20 2017 Equinox Caribbean sailing

Here's one: November 28 2015 Connie sailing - no AQ or Concierge available, all suites sold out.

 

2/20/17 Equinox, all AQ and Concierge sold out. All suites sold out.

 

3/15/15 Eclipse,. all suites gone, all AQ gone, 1 of 3 Concierge classes gone, and balance of Concierges selling for highest fare since on sale, whole OV are at lowest price since on sale, and Verandas have been reduced recently.

Curt, you and I are talking about two completely different worlds so we are each out of the others' scope. Your sailings are all long, specialized itineraries that specifically offer the discriminating cruiser something different. But they're not what MOST people can do for their vacations. As such, you may very well be right about supply and demand and how well the 123Go promo works. But these are not typical sailings. If during sailaway, you are not right behind another cruise ship, or 3 or 4, then we're not talking about the same thing. :)

 

I am specifically referring to the cruises that the vast majority of people are sailing: 7-8 day Alaska or Caribbean, or 7-12 day Europe cruises during peak seasons. These cruises ALWAYS have other lines and multiple ships sailing the same or similar itineraries because they are the most popular. As just an example, I have boxed my airfare around a 7 or 8 day cruise for the week of March 28 thru April 5th out of south Florida, and do you know how many good mainstream cruise line choices I have? 13 sailings! Even with all the demand, there is so much more supply so it's no wonder that the lines have to discount post-final-payment!

 

So the scope of my comments pertain to the sailings that cover probably 90% of cruise passengers (just my guess of course). Again, to summarize, for these peak-season, high demand and high supply itineraries, with or without the 123Go promo, X does not sell enough staterooms prior to final payment the vast majority of the time to avoid a substantial post-final-payment sale and thus it is better to book after final payment for these cruises.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Terpnut

I sail exclusively Caribbean and Alaska, with the very occasional California coastal (and Mexico when Celebrity sailed there). I have been sailing mostly Celebrity for more than 20 years. Up until the past few years, due to school schedules we were always booking spring break cruises. Never, ever in all those years would we have saved money booking last minute for those cruises. The same is true for the three Alaska cruises we took (which were in a different peak period - July/August).

 

So I consider myself within the family of cruisers of which you speak - nothing exotic until DH also retires. I agree with you that for off-peak cruises, you can almost guarantee that you can find some savings right after final payment to these locations. I disagree that the same can be said for peak periods. Even after we have made final payment, we often review the pricing to see if we want to snag a deal on an upgrade. In all of our 25+ Celebrity cruises, we have been able to do this once and only once, and that was for an off-peak cruise. Now part of the difference could be what a person is willing to sail in. Could I have snagged a deal on an inside cabin? Perhaps. But I hate sailing in them. On an outside? Maybe, but I much prefer balconies. So using that strategy for peak and/or popular cruises can be a real risk IMHO. For off-peak, not so much if you are willing to be flexible in accommodations.

I sail exclusively Caribbean and Alaska, with the very occasional California coastal (and Mexico when Celebrity sailed there). I have been sailing mostly Celebrity for more than 20 years. Up until the past few years, due to school schedules we were always booking spring break cruises. Never, ever in all those years would we have saved money booking last minute for those cruises. The same is true for the three Alaska cruises we took (which were in a different peak period - July/August).

I'm not sure when you actually checked your fares. Did you look 14-60 days out? I don't think we're going to settle the debate here, but as a fairly frequent cruiser, I can tell you from personal experience that many of the best fares for peak season travel fall during that booking window. To be honest I didn't follow Alaska for last summer (i.e. 2014) but both Alaska and Europe sailings during summer of 2013 had fire sales on nearly every sailing. Peak season Caribbean is nearly always easy during the same late-booking windows.

 

 

So I consider myself within the family of cruisers of which you speak - nothing exotic until DH also retires. I agree with you that for off-peak cruises, you can almost guarantee that you can find some savings right after final payment to these locations. I disagree that the same can be said for peak periods. Even after we have made final payment, we often review the pricing to see if we want to snag a deal on an upgrade. In all of our 25+ Celebrity cruises, we have been able to do this once and only once, and that was for an off-peak cruise. Now part of the difference could be what a person is willing to sail in. Could I have snagged a deal on an inside cabin? Perhaps. But I hate sailing in them. On an outside? Maybe, but I much prefer balconies. So using that strategy for peak and/or popular cruises can be a real risk IMHO. For off-peak, not so much if you are willing to be flexible in accommodations.

It's actually the opposite case. The oversupply of staterooms generally exists in the suites, aqua, or concierge class so we have scored these "premium" staterooms at early-booking verandah or oceanview prices--again always booking precisely 14-60 days out. And lest you think we missed out on a promo, we often get that too. I suppose it's better for X for their best customers to not know any of this but I am trying to get the word out! :rolleyes: Edited January 19, 2015 by Terpnut

I would never cruise in the high/popular season in Europe let alone fly over there for a 7-10 day cruise. In 8 years we have only sailed on one 10 nt cruise and decided those 3-4-5-7 day cruises were not for us. The cruises are cheaper for just that reason - can't justify the flight cost which is probably more than the cruise. And for people in Canada and the northern US it is still pricey to fly to the southern FL ports.

 

For that reason we have not cruised the Caribbean for 5 years but will do so in 2 years on the Equinox which we booked the day the cruise came out. Those cabins sold in about 2 weeks and didn't have a chance to increase in price lol. Everyone could have just booked OV's and just taken one of the 123 but most, it seems didn't. Since we book really early (as soon as the itinerary's come out), we have not yet had prices fall below what we paid after final - hopefully our luck will hold out.

I'm not sure when you actually checked your fares. Did you look 14-60 days out? I don't think we're going to settle the debate here, but as a fairly frequent cruiser, I can tell you from personal experience that many of the best fares for peak season travel fall during that booking window. To be honest I didn't follow Alaska for last summer (i.e. 2014) but both Alaska and Europe sailings during summer of 2013 had fire sales on nearly every sailing. Peak season Caribbean is nearly always easy during the same late-booking windows.

 

 

It's actually the opposite case. The oversupply of staterooms generally exists in the suites, aqua, or concierge class so we have scored these "premium" staterooms at early-booking verandah or oceanview prices--again always booking precisely 14-60 days out. And lest you think we missed out on a promo, we often get that too. I suppose it's better for X for their best customers to not know any of this but I am trying to get the word out! :rolleyes:

Yes, we looked 14-60 days out, and before and after that. For those cruises for those peak times, we never saw a better deal. So I say I never saw it, and you say you see it all the time. Can't prove a thing either way. I would rather you be right than me, for the record. We generally do not book peak season or special cruises in recent times, so I can't speak to them. For the cruises we have booked, in a couple cases we have seen a very small drop in price for our cabins - not enough to allow us to upgrade, and certainly not enough to make up for the perks we would have missed by waiting. In most cases (I would estimate 80% or more) the prices rose if anything. That has been my experience. Perhaps I am just picking very popular cruises.

 

I just booked an early March cruise. Had been monitoring pricing and it was stabilized so when the 123 all inclusive was changed to include March we pulled the trigger. So we are within the 60 days at this point. I will continue to keep an eye on pricing (would love to upgrade if the price dropped) so we'll see. There are a lot of open cabins still so frankly I am surprised the price is remaining where it is. To be continued.........

To avoid having everyone who booked at the higher prices clamoring for price drops, what cruise lines often do is to offer discounted prices for special categories or to certain groups.

 

Those who booked early and claim they never saw lower prices are telling the truth because very likely they only looked at the high prices on websites and were unaware that other passengers were booking the same categories at much lower closeout prices.

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by fleckle

To avoid having everyone who booked at the higher prices clamoring for price drops, what cruise lines often do is to offer discounted prices for special categories or to certain groups.

 

Those who booked early and claim they never saw lower prices are telling the truth because very likely they only looked at the high prices on websites and were unaware that other passengers were booking the same categories at much lower closeout prices.

 

 

But you would need to be part of certain groups to get those closeout prices. We always double check for resident and senior discounts when we check. Obviously we don't go so far as to contact TA's as that would be wrong to tie them up with fake bookings, so we possibly don't know about their group discount bookings. We do, however, look at the big not-to-be-named TA's prices on their website and my comments still hold. So if a discounted fare would not be applicable to me anyway, then for practical purposes there were no lower prices for us. Others perhaps getting lower prices that I couldn't get anyway is certainly not an argument for me to wait to book peak season or prime cruises. And of course I am telling the truth - was there the thought that I was not:eek:.:)

To avoid having everyone who booked at the higher prices clamoring for price drops, what cruise lines often do is to offer discounted prices for special categories or to certain groups.

 

Those who booked early and claim they never saw lower prices are telling the truth because very likely they only looked at the high prices on websites and were unaware that other passengers were booking the same categories at much lower closeout prices.

 

 

 

I book early and subscribe to 2 price monitoring sites which follow cabin categories as well as Senior, Police discount etc . I also discuss & compare group pricing that my TA offers. But now, with the way our dollar is behaving, I wouldn't book in a group because it has to be in US $'s (my TA books in both currencies) plus I have to put down the full deposit. All of my three future cruises are booked using Passages (with the associated OBC) so I have $200 CND x 3 on deposit rather than $900 USD x 3 especially when you have cruises booked out to 2017.

 

There have been a few last minute deals for slightly less than what we paid but for cabins we wouldn't enjoy ie insides, OV's and obstructed ie 2D's & 2C's. Having a balcony with a good location is important to our cruise enjoyment and more than just a place for showers and sleeping. Totally agree that for people who just want to be on the ship and are not fussy about their cabins are happy with the guarantees that are offered after final pay't The system works well for everyone:)

 

 

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Edited January 20, 2015 by Christine Frances

Celebrity is by no means the only cruise line to do that, and there are undoubtedly other passengers who are unaware of the price drops that occur after final payment.

 

A few years ago, we wanted to book a balcony cabin on the HAL Amsterdam for a unique itinerary they were offering.

The lowest priced balcony cabin on that ship was a category they called a verandah suite and we thought the prices they were asking were outrageous.

 

It is actually a very nice balcony cabin, but hardly what I would consider a suite.

As far as I can tell, the only thing about it that makes it a "suite" is the suite price they ask for it.

 

 

We had decided to pass on it, but then after final payment we were offered one for half price, so naturally we jumped on it.

 

On board the ship, we got into a conversation with some neighbors who had booked early and were complaining about the high price they paid for the same category, saying that they kept watching it and the price never came down.

Of course we did not say a word.

 

Edited January 20, 2015 by fleckle

 

There have been a few last minute deals for slightly less than what we paid but for cabins we wouldn't enjoy ie insides, OV's and obstructed ie 2D's & 2C's. Having a balcony with a good location is important to our cruise enjoyment and more than just a place for showers and sleeping. Totally agree that for people who just want to be on the ship and are not fussy about their cabins are happy with the guarantees that are offered after final pay't The system works well for everyone:)

I hate to beat a dead horse, but the staterooms that are available after final payment are not just the least desirable but often include the most desirable, i.e. concierge class, aqua class and suites. A couple sailings back, we happily booked the suite guarantee (and got a nice aft S1) for the same price as the early booking Cat 1A. For our last X Med cruise, our family booked prime aqua and concierge class staterooms for under $100 per person per day--all less than early booking regular verandahs. So while inventory and sales for each sailing may vary, it's just not true that booking after final payment means that one must sacrifice the best choices in staterooms! Edited January 21, 2015 by Terpnut