Tropical storm (potentialy hurricane) Erika

[TruckerDave]

Everybody, go outside and blow really hard to push it away!

 

 

I blowing to the south so it stays in FL and away from Charleston. :D

[chrisa222]

I'm on the breeze that does southern itinerary on Saturday. I'm hoping/guessing that we will be OK leaving Miami on Saturday but maybe they will change the order of ports? Supposed to be grand Turk, Dominican republic, Curacao, Aruba......

[RjayB]

Ok, ive been looking over the models and European models too and Erika can't seem get organized. lots of westerly wind shear aloft high up blowing cloud tops off to the east. Why they think Erika will reach Hurricane strength and stay a hurricane up to just before Florida coast I just don't see it. ...

 

The NOAA Wendesday 5pm statement update seems to agree with you. While it technically still shows a potential hurricane hitting FL on Monday, they say there is a real possibility that it might break up over the next couple of days just like Danny. Hoping for that! :)

[RjayB]

I'm on the breeze that does southern itinerary on Saturday. I'm hoping/guessing that we will be OK leaving Miami on Saturday but maybe they will change the order of ports? Supposed to be grand Turk, Dominican republic, Curacao, Aruba......

 

The Saturday departures should be ok (and I will be on one of those ships!), but I am nervous for the people leaving on Monday. Not sure about your ports though.:o

[tngirl1972]

I will be on that cruise with you.....

 

We should have no problem leaving Miami, but coming back on Monday is going to be an issue. My guess is that we will probably go to Mexico and then float around until the storm passes. Might get an extra day!

 

If that happens what do we do with non refundable AA plane tickets coming back on Monday?

[Drazil65]

tngirl1972: travel insurance? Yup, exactly cuz you never know...for all those out there that think its a waste, remember a heck of a lot cheaper than losing money on flights or anything else...just sayin....

[tngirl1972]

tngirl1972: travel insurance? Yup, exactly cuz you never know...for all those out there that think its a waste, remember a heck of a lot cheaper than losing money on flights or anything else...just sayin....

 

I did purchase travel insurance through carnival.

[Drazil65]

Then read the part about delays or trip interruptions and make sure you have the claim number to call as soon as you know if there is a trip delay/interruption that causes you a financial loss (to see if your tix are covered in the type of ins you purchased)....good luck

Edited August 26, 2015 by Drazil65

[tngirl1972]

Then read the part about delays or trip interruptions and make sure you have the claim number to call as soon as you know if there is a trip delay/interruption that causes you a financial loss (to see if your tix are covered in the type of ins you purchased)....good luck

it looks to be covered :)

[Zeta3]

Check the airline website too you may be able to change your flight or cancel without losing anything if they project the storm will affect your flight.

[Jeepenfun]

If the storm holds together, and I see that as a big "IF", as hurricane, tropical storm or even depression and makes landfall along Florida Monday, all cruise ships scheduled to return Monday will sit out at sea waiting for the storm to clear and some times even divert to a different port. I'm sure cruise lines and Port of Miami have a policy set that if swells are a certain height they wont attempt to enter the port and dock. Its too dangerous. There wont be any ships in port during the storm. getting slammed against the dock from swells will damage a ship potentially putting it out of service for unknown amount of time. They wont take that chance and they will head out to sea and wait out the storm.

 

I'm sure Miami international and Fort Lauderdale International will cancel flights as storm approaches. They also don't want planes on the ground with an approaching hurricane cause that also will damage planes. If they cancel your flight then most of the time what you spent on your airfare they will apply to a later flight once flights resume.

[JohnLocke2012]

Anyone know if the 31st 5 night sailing on the Conquest will be effected? Its leaving monday, so im hoping its after thr storm passes.

[Jeepenfun]

Here is a good map of all the model projections and it shows only 3 models making landfall.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?latitude=39&longitude=-97&zoomLevel=4&opacity=1&basemap=0014&layers=0040,0112,0113

 

But as you can see since my weather post earlier today they no longer show it hitting hurricane strength all across virgin island and Bahamas and now showing tropical storm for the next few days and then hurricane as it hits Florida but even if it does hit Florida it will be very short lived and be blown apart by the westerly flow and blown back out to sea again. The PAID weather monekys now see what I see, well almost. I still don't see the weather pattern supporting it staying together as tropical storm as long as they think.

Water vapor maps and upper winds aloft will keep this storm to a minimum.

 

I still see a good potential when Erika reaches the area San Juan and northwestern of San Juan it will get blown apart and fizzle away in the drier air over that area. Just like Danny did in that same area.

[Jeepenfun]

LOL, and they are still changing the paths of this storm and even removed some of the projected paths and models just a few minutes ago. I just looked again and now they only have 1 model path showing it hitting Florida and the others skirting of the coast and then back out to sea.

Like I said its falling apart. dont make changes to your plans yet. give it another day. I'll try to make another one of my updates in a couple hours and then again first thing in the morning. A lot can happen in 24 hours.

Edited August 27, 2015 by Jeepenfun

[tngirl1972]

LOL, and they are still changing the paths of this storm and even removed some of the projected paths and models just a few minutes ago. I just looked again and now they only have 1 model path showing it hitting Florida and the others skirting of the coast and then back out to sea.

Like I said its falling apart. dont make changes to your plans yet. give it another day. I'll try to make another one of my updates in a couple hours and then again first thing in the morning. A lot can happen in 24 hours.

Thank you for your insight!

 

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[perditax]

I've been lurking on the forums where the professional meteorologists hang out and they admit this one is unusually hard to call. I get the sense all bets are off until they see how it recovers tomorrow.

[Jules215]

Anyone know if the 31st 5 night sailing on the Conquest will be effected? Its leaving monday, so im hoping its after thr storm passes.

 

A friend and I are on that sailing with one of us coming from the UK on Sunday...Not dying to arrive in Philly only to find the flight to FLL has been grounded...Then trying to get on a flight when they resume to a probably shortened cruise...Worse case scenario of course, but UGH.

 

Lots of decisions to make...Hopefully there is a better feel for this whole thing by Fri/Sat.

Edited August 27, 2015 by Jules215

[Jeepenfun]

Just like said earlier today, looking more and more like Erika will turn north at Nassau and then head back out to sea. The westerly and south westerly winds are staying persistent over Florida and will blow it back out to sea. Forecasters have even in the last hour lowered the strength of this storm after it passes San Juan like I said earlier. That's were it will meet drier air and high winds aloft blowing it apart. Depending on how much it gets blown apart it could at that point move north and then back out to sea and not bother Florida at all. But there is some slight chance it could re-strengthen over Bahamas and then continue north from there bringing it closer to Florida coast and disrupt cruise travel on Monday. But from what I see I still don't see it effecting Florida very much. Tomorrow morning could bring a new story though. It's bed time for me, I'll look at the models and weather loops in the morning and post another update of what I think Erika will do.

[perditax]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46774-tropical-storm-erika/page-8

[JohnLocke2012]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46774-tropical-storm-erika/page-8

 

So does this mean Ill be good leaving FLL monday?

[Zeta3]

Today in San Juan was gorgeous

[crewsweeper]

Lots of IFs on this storm. If the wind shear continues to eat away and upper currents push it to turn north, Erika may remain a TS or TD. If Erika moves out to the wind shear and picks up warmer water it could become a hurricane and track right up the Florida coast. If, If.

 

While the storm bears watching closely one thing to remember is that all hurricane model tracks for 3-5 days out are off by around 200-250 miles and even the best can't quite accurately predict that far out.

[CruiseHealing]

Looking at the track it appears that it will continue a slow curl to the east of Florida. If it makes land fall (I think that it is questionable) it will be around the SC/NC stateline to the Outer Banks. That is my guess based on the current projected track.

 

This does not mean those cruising out of FLA Atlantic Coast have smooth sailing. The seas will probably be a little rough at first with cloud cover and rain. In fact the seas could be rough for almost have of your 7 day cruise if leaving Saturday.

 

I have been in the same position as you are now. It will not ruin your vacation, just make it a bit unique, but have fun anyway!

[RjayB]

The guys at Weather Channel are trying desperately to magically transform Erika from a weak tropical storm with bleak prospects into a ratings-generating storm, but it just isn't working :rolleyes:

It is almost funny to watch them this morning. There definitely is a chance it could happen, but it looks like this will not be too much trouble in the end.:)

[crewsweeper]

The guys at Weather Channel are trying desperately to magically transform Erika from a weak tropical storm with bleak prospects into a ratings-generating storm, but it just isn't working :rolleyes:

It is almost funny to watch them this morning. There definitely is a chance it could happen, but it looks like this will not be too much trouble in the end.:)

These are the same guys that hype every snow cloud into a major traffic snarling blizzard and every high temperature into "earth is becoming hotter than hell quicker than you think". Ratings are down and they hope to gin up viewers because "Fat Guys in the Woods" repeats aren't doing it. :rolleyes: