Tropical storm (potentialy hurricane) Erika

[Jeepenfun]

This storm has already defied all predictions and storm tracks. It's stayed south a lot longer then anyone foresaw. Only thing one can hope for is Dominican Republic and Cuba land mass will dissipate this storm into a depression and when it reaches Florida it will be nothing more then a weak disturbance and dump and lot of rain.

[Mr305]

The 5am advisory has it coming up the keys and heading North, Miami will be on the dirty side of the storm if the track holds. But I really think we won't get a good handle on the storm until it exits Hispaniola, later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

 

Norwegian has the Sky in Key West on Sunday, right in the storm's path given the latest advisory. I'm sure that itinerary will now change given the latest info form the hurricane center. This leaves the Sky and Ecstasy with little options given its only a 3 day cruise. Nassau already under a tropical storm watch and I'm sure that will change to a warning by later this evening if the storm survives the trek over Hispaniola.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Mr305

[Jeepenfun]

Just searched live webcams around the storm and San Juan looks dry and broken clouds. Dominican Republic north side looks like rain and some wind. Trees seem to be blowing I bit, nothing bad. South wind side looks calmer but raining around santo Domingo and supposedly the storm is just a few miles offshore of Santo Domingo. I can see for several miles in the webcams so it's not pouring rain and blowing wind real hard. Bay water surface looks calm and on the north side of Dominican Republic waves on the beach looked to be about 5-8 feet but not flooding the beach. Seems like a pretty calm tropical storm looking at webcams in the area

Edited August 28, 2015 by Jeepenfun

[Mr305]

Center is Southeast of DR and the strongest winds are between DR and PR, the storm ended up going under PR that's why you don't see that much wind/rain. However, if you look at PR radar, there's a nice feeder band moving in from the Southeast. The storm's structure is not vertically stacked due to shear but that's expected to change on the North side of Hispaniola and as it heads towards Florida. Too early to write it off as well as to say something is going to impact Florida. There's going to be bad weather, just how severe is the question that can't be answered right now based on everything that's going on and with changes to the storm's path.

Edited August 28, 2015 by Mr305

[Jeepenfun]

If Erika holds together enough after going over DR and Cuba and gets into the really warm waters of the gulf then it could explode into quite a huricane and head for new Orleans area. Every day the track shifts to the west.

[crewsweeper]

If Erika stays a TS/TD and does head directly up the FL Peninsula, she'll bring much needed rain to South and central Florida without the havoc of dangerous winds. But remember the projected tracks for more than 3 days out often miss the actual track by a lot. So I'm with you Jeepenfun, if she moves off the FL west coast, she could be Katrina's 10th Anniversary present.

[JohnLocke2012]

The DR should break most of this storm up. Or is that just my wishful thinking since Im leaving monday?

[Jeepenfun]

The DR should break most of this storm up. Or is that just my wishful thinking since Im leaving monday?

 

At this point by Monday Erika will be aiming for New Orleans. Lol. Miami will be clear skies and clear sailing weather.

[JohnLocke2012]

At this point by Monday Erika will be aiming for New Orleans. Lol. Miami will be clear skies and clear sailing weather.

 

What makes you say that? Everything ive read says Florida landfall Sunday night into Monday? I hope you're right, just curious why you think that?

[evandbob]

And on Monday, I'll be laying on the beach in Turks and Caicos. My land vacation got pushed back from Saturday afternoon to Sunday morning, no big deal. The storm will be long gone and being on solid ground the only rock & rolling I'll be doing is not with the waves, but with the music, and well, never mind.

 

I've lived through tropical storms while staying on islands and even when caught in one, I think it's better to book land than a sea vacation in hurricane season. That said, I'm cruising out of Galveston mid October!

[perditax]

What makes you say that? Everything ive read says Florida landfall Sunday night into Monday? I hope you're right, just curious why you think that?

 

I think the poster was joking, but the storm is tracking a lot more westerly than it was yesterday, so some sort of re-formation in the gulf is, I guess, one possible outcome.

 

Seems like smart money is it brings a TS through central Florida, but keep in mind it STILL hasn't made its way through the large mass of Hispaniola, and all bets are off until it does.

[RjayB]

Yes it seems some people are assuming this is an organized storm...and it might become that...but as it stands right now there is a good possibility there will not be anything to make "landfall"...may just be another band of thunderstorms by then. I am much more optimistic about Florida on Monday than I was 2 days ago. As always, this could change and it could turn into a Cat 3 or something...just very unlikely.

[Sammydan]

Florida just declared a state of emergency. Will that effect flights or the ports?

[JAGheel]

Florida just declared a state of emergency. Will that effect flights or the ports?

 

The ports are still open though on a state of heightened readiness. Bridges will lock down 8 hours before anticipated arrival of tropical storm force winds, which will probably result in port closures.

[dluvsc]

I'm on the breeze that does southern itinerary on Saturday. I'm hoping/guessing that we will be OK leaving Miami on Saturday but maybe they will change the order of ports? Supposed to be grand Turk, Dominican republic, Curacao, Aruba......

 

I'm on your ship with you Chrisa. I'm also wondering about our first two ports. Have you heard anything new?

[mzready2go]

I would like to get the carnival countdown clock. Where can i get it if you don't mind me asking.

Thanks kindly in advance.

Edited August 28, 2015 by mzready2go

[Jeepenfun]

What makes you say that? Everything ive read says Florida landfall Sunday night into Monday? I hope you're right, just curious why you think that?

because in the last 2 days projected paths have gone from heading up the eastern coast of Florida and back out to sea to slamming right into northern Florida to slamming right into Miami on the south and now showing paths going up the western coast of Florida. by tomorrow we could see it missing Florida all together and going right into the gulf waters and looking at southern coastal states like Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana .

Erika has stayed south a lot longer then most all forecasters predicted. they kept saying it was going to turn and go north way back before San Juan. It has kept its westerly march since it was named.

[Dave0311]

Scheduled to leave on the Conquest on Monday, so I've been following this very closely. On the meteorology forum I frequent, the overall impression seems to be that Erika will end up in the Gulf of Mexico or maybe the west coast of Florida. The last handful of projections have had her shifting West consistently. They say Jamaica is more likely to get a direct hit at this point than the Bahamas. I'd take this for what it's worth. No one will know for sure where Erika ends up until this all over.

[sandij]

It has been a deceptive storm and has the weather people baffled, but as of right now the east coast of Florida is looking pretty safe. I hope you have a great time.

[Jeepenfun]

no organization here.

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/CaribbeanSatellite.aspx?animate=true

 

And like i said earlier

if it crosses DR or Cuba/Hispaniola it will get torn apart and downgraded to a Depression. Now they show that in the newest update here

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=3&type=track

 

But it has yet still to turn north.

[Jeepenfun]

Newest update now shows it missing Florida peninsula all together and all tracks show it going over the water gulf waters towards pan handle of Florida. I think you can say cruises leaving and entering ports on the east side of Florida are safe this weekend and Monday

[RjayB]

Breeze, Fascination, Valor Itinerary changes:

 

Update #3 - 8/28/2015 - 8:00 PM

At Carnival, the safety of our guests and crew is our number one concern. Rest assured, our ships will be operating at a safe distance from Tropical Storm Erika.

 

Due to the forecasted path of the storm, we are forced to modify the below itineraries for the Carnival Breeze, Carnival Fascination, and Carnival Valor departing on Saturday, August 29th.

 

Carnival Breeze departing from PortMiami will now call on Grand Cayman on Monday, Mahogany Bay, Roatan on Wednesday, Costa Maya on Thursday and Cozumel on Friday. Please keep in mind terminal doors will close at 3:30PM and any guests arriving after this time will not be able to board. The ship will sail shortly thereafter.

 

Carnival Fascination departing from Jacksonville will not be able to call on Half Moon Cay. The ship will have an extended call in Nassau on Tuesday, September 1 from 8:00 AM to 5:00 PM and then proceed to Freeport on Wednesday, September 2 from 7:00 AM to 2:00 PM.

 

Carnival Valor departing from Port Canaveral will not be able to call on Nassau. The ship will have an extended call in St. Thomas on Tuesday from 9:00 AM to 7:00 PM with the remainder of her itinerary as scheduled.

Carnival Glory guests sailing from Miami should keep in mind terminal doors will close at 3:30PM and any guests arriving after this time will not be able to board. The ship will sail shortly thereafter. Her itinerary remains as scheduled.

 

At this time, no other changes have been made to any other sailings this weekend. We will continue to keep you informed should there be any further updates. We sincerely apologize for these changes and trust you understand they are done to ensure your safety and comfort. We look forward to welcoming our guests on board.

[Shipbound]

because in the last 2 days projected paths have gone from heading up the eastern coast of Florida and back out to sea to slamming right into northern Florida to slamming right into Miami on the south and now showing paths going up the western coast of Florida. by tomorrow we could see it missing Florida all together and going right into the gulf waters and looking at southern coastal states like Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana .

Erika has stayed south a lot longer then most all forecasters predicted. they kept saying it was going to turn and go north way back before San Juan. It has kept its westerly march since it was named.

 

You are correct because on the Today show this morning the forecast track is more to the west of Florida in the Gulf towards Mississippi, Alabama or Louisiana so we'll have to see what happens.

 

Gary

[Cruise-Crazy]

No more Erika!!

[Dave0311]

NHC has downgraded Erika and has stopped issuing updates.

 

Here's their last forecast at 9:30 ET: "The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours. After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico." They say it's possible the storm may regenerate once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

 

Still cautiously optimistic...