Oceania's Action Plan for Coronavirus

[irr]

News Update with links

Thermometer guns used to screen for coronavirus are 'notoriously' unreliable experts say, warning about improper use and false temperatures

https://www.businessinsider.com/thermometer-guns-screening-for-coronavirus-notoriously-not-accurate-2020-2?utm_source=yahoo.com&utm_medium=referral

 

2 new cases in Singapore bringing the total to 77

 

• 2 new cases in Singapore. 5 new discharges. New cases: 
  - a 1 year-old male Singaporean, part of the group evacuated from Wuhan on Feb. 9.
  - a 35 year-old male Singaporean with no recent travel history to China but a contact of a previously confirmed case.
•  
• 1 new case in Hong Kong.

85 new cases onboard the cruise ship in Japan: 12% of passengers and crew (1 out of 😎 have so far tested positive to the virus (454 cases out of 3,711)

 

• 14 new cases from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan: a group of US citizens whose results for COVID-19 tests (done 2-3 days earlier) arrived while en-route from the cruise ship to the airport for a flight back to the United States.
• They will be flown back to the US on the chartered airplane together in an isolation container 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/17/health/evacuated-passengers-test-positive-coronavirus/index.html

• 1 new case in Thailand: a 60-year old Chinese woman whose family members earlier contracted the virus.

[Hawaiidan]

An  important consideration...  people at the CDC several days ago said that this virus is NOT going away and that a vaccine  will not be available till next year.     

Furthur  they stated that this virus will decline in  the summer to reappear in the fall as other viruses do and in all probability mutate. during that time to something new.

Finally , it was stated that this virus will become, in all probability  a regular thing like our current flu season.

So....this problem / situation  is at least a year away from any solution due to the vaccine development

 

Plan accordingly

[mamaclark]

52 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

An  important consideration...  people at the CDC several days ago said that this virus is NOT going away and that a vaccine  will not be available till next year.     

Furthur  they stated that this virus will decline in  the summer to reappear in the fall as other viruses do and in all probability mutate. during that time to something new.

Finally , it was stated that this virus will become, in all probability  a regular thing like our current flu season.

So....this problem / situation  is at least a year away from any solution due to the vaccine development

 

Plan accordingly

Can you provide a link for that CDC information? Thank you.

 

[corpkid]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

An  important consideration...  people at the CDC several days ago said that this virus is NOT going away and that a vaccine  will not be available till next year.     

Furthur  they stated that this virus will decline in  the summer to reappear in the fall as other viruses do and in all probability mutate. during that time to something new.

Finally , it was stated that this virus will become, in all probability  a regular thing like our current flu season.

So....this problem / situation  is at least a year away from any solution due to the vaccine development

 

Plan accordingly

My long-time neighbor works for the CDC and has been in Atlanta for the past month.  Finally got to talk to him this morning.

 

They are currently working hard on a rapid test for COVID-19, but even that is at least six months away he said. As for vaccines, there are a few promising tests going on, but again, we're still at least six months away from that (he thinks more like a year).

 

I asked him if he would go on our May trip (he is a well-seasoned traveler) and he said no.  Primarily because he's worried about getting stuck out of the country for weeks on end.

 

Take what you will of this - just thought I'd pass it along.

Edited February 17, 2020 by corpkid

[Paulchili]

7 minutes ago, corpkid said:

My long-time neighbor works for the CDC and has been in Atlanta for the past month.  Finally got to talk to him this morning.

 

They are currently working hard on a rapid test for COVID-19, but even that is at least six months away he said. As for vaccines, there are a few promising tests going on, but again, we're still at least six months away from that (he thinks more like a year).

 

I asked him if he would go on our May trip (he is a well-seasoned traveler) and he said no.  Primarily because he's worried about getting stuck out of the country for weeks on end.

 

Take what you will of this - just thought I'd pass it along.

WOW - something to think about.

[Hawaiidan]

2 hours ago, mamaclark said:

Can you provide a link for that CDC information? Thank you.

 

It was an ABC news item I saw 2 days ago....  I would reference what the corpkiid said of his CDC connection which validates what I heard

In this age of instant gratification.... this disease is not going to be a quick fix.    Like the CDC guy who would not travel at least for 4months    and when you couple that with the vaccine is at least 6 months but more likely a year away  the risk is going to be high.

As Paul said  WOW......Me...plan accordingly    If your in a high risk group due to health or age I would  be very careful for quite some time.

[Paulchili]

5 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

It was an ABC news item I saw 2 days ago....  I would reference what the corpkiid said of his CDC connection which validates what I heard

In this age of instant gratification.... this disease is not going to be a quick fix.    Like the CDC guy who would not travel at least for 4months    and when you couple that with the vaccine is at least 6 months but more likely a year away  the risk is going to be high.

As Paul said  WOW......Me...plan accordingly    If your in a high risk group due to health or age I would  be very careful for quite some time.

That said, it does depend on where one travels.

There might be a case or two in France but I would not hesitate traveling there. Different story for most of Eastern/Southern Asia.

[Hawaiidan]

3 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

That said, it does depend on where one travels.

There might be a case or two in France but I would not hesitate traveling there. Different story for most of Eastern/Southern Asia.

true......but  we have to qualify this   " at this time"   my crystal ball is in the shop..as to what will be tomorrow let alone this summer or fall anywhere.

[corpkid]

1 minute ago, Paulchili said:

That said, it does depend on where one travels.

There might be a case or two in France but I would not hesitate traveling there. Different story for most of Eastern/Southern Asia.

Absolutely this.  We're considering Switzerland for a couple weeks this summer as a backup plan if this all blows up

[Paulchili]

Of course, we all know that life is a bit of a gamble and sometimes it involves a bit of luck or lack of it.

There is a story of a taxi driver who died from corona virus and his only exposure was transporting an infected traveler - what are the chances of picking up an infected passenger in a long taxi line. It could have been someone else's ride but for the random order of passengers waiting in the line (or order of taxis).

Also, it was just released that a Japanese couple flied recently on Hawaiian Airlines from Maui to Honolulu and a few days later from Honolulu to Japan on Delta. Both he and his wife are now hospitalized in Japan with corona virus and pneumonia.

Think of how many people might have been exposed to them in Maui, Honolulu and on both flights (and maybe some of those people unknowingly now exposing others?).

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/02/15/breaking-news/japanese-woman-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-shortly-after-husband-contracted-disease-from-recent-hawaii-trip/

Edited February 17, 2020 by Paulchili

[Flatbush Flyer]

2 hours ago, Paulchili said:

WOW - something to think about.

Note that the CDC guy said "no" because he doesn't want to have to stay longer for whatever reason (like cautionary quarantine) rather than getting the virus as the main reason.

[corpkid]

2 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Of course, we all know that life is a bit of a gamble and sometimes it involves a bit of luck or lack of it.

There is a story of a taxi driver who died from corona virus and his only exposure was transporting an infected traveler - what are the chances of picking up an infected passenger in a long taxi line. It could have been someone else's ride but for the random order of passengers waiting in the line (or order of taxis).

Also, it was just released that a Japanese couple flied recently on Hawaiian Airlines from Maui to Honolulu and a few days later from Honolulu to Japan on Delta. Both he and his wife are now hospitalized in Japan with corona virus and pneumonia.

Think of how many people might have been exposed to them in Maui, Honolulu and on both flights (and maybe some of those people unknowingly now exposing others?).

The long asymptomatic contagion window is what is worrying experts the most I'm told.

[Flatbush Flyer]

6 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Of course, we all know that life is a bit of a gamble and sometimes it involves a bit of luck or lack of it.

There is a story of a taxi driver who died from corona virus and his only exposure was transporting an infected traveler - what are the chances of picking up an infected passenger in a long taxi line. It could have been someone else's ride but for the random order of passengers waiting in the line (or order of taxis).

Also, it was just released that a Japanese couple flied recently on Hawaiian Airlines from Maui to Honolulu and a few days later from Honolulu to Japan on Delta. Both he and his wife are now hospitalized in Japan with corona virus and pneumonia.

Think of how many people might have been exposed to them in Maui, Honolulu and on both flights (and maybe some of those people unknowingly now exposing others?).

While the above scenario is a scary thought, let's stay real in thinking about what are the chances that someone traveling/transiting in that area will come into contact with the virus. It's minuscule.

Edited February 17, 2020 by Flatbush Flyer

[Paulchili]

3 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

It's minuscule.

It is minuscule in theory (and probably in reality as well) but 100% for the "unlucky" ones.

Just think of those people on Hawaiian and Delta flights (and the hotels the couple stayed in) who had no idea that they might be in danger. Hopefully everyone did get lucky; if so, proving your theory that the chances are minuscule.

Edited February 17, 2020 by Paulchili

[corpkid]

2 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

While it's a scary thought, let's stay real in thinking about what are the chances that someone traveling/transiting in that area will come into contact with the virus. It's minuscule.

I think it's important to qualify your correct statement with "right now" - we honestly have no idea what things will look like in 30/60/90 days.

[Zesty Italian]

Along the lines of the recent CDC posts here, epidemiologist in Chicago stated an important difference between this virus and the flu is that the flu follows a typical pattern of coming on in winter and dying off usually by Mar..  We have no idea whether that is true of coronavirus.

May I ask corpkid where your cruise is the your CDC friend wouldn't go?  Is it that he wouldn't travel to Asia or anywhere abroad? Sorry I can't remember your trip.

I think Paul's last post about how this is unknowingly spread afar is what is so scary and what other's have been trying to say about the right to travel vs. public health concerns.

[corpkid]

3 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

It is minuscule in theory (and probably in reality as well) but 100% for the "unlucky" ones.

Let's not discount that cruise ships tend to be effective transmission vectors.

[Flatbush Flyer]

Just now, corpkid said:

I think it's important to qualify your correct statement with "right now" - we honestly have no idea what things will look like in 30/60/90 days.

Agreed. But, if things really started down the zombie apocalypse road, I'm betting governments would make some very economically hard decision about closing borders to all transportation.

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 minute ago, corpkid said:

Let's not discount that cruise ships tend to be effective transmission vectors.

Oddly enough, I feel pretty safe right here on Nautica. The boarding restrictions in Cape Town  were significant including embarkation personnel leading through the passports to make sure you had no recent mainland China stamps.

[corpkid]

2 minutes ago, Zesty Italian said:

Along the lines of the recent CDC posts here, epidemiologist in Chicago stated an important difference between this virus and the flu is that the flu follows a typical pattern of coming on in winter and dying off usually by Mar..  We have no idea whether that is true of coronavirus.

May I ask corpkid where your cruise is the your CDC friend wouldn't go?  Is it that he wouldn't travel to Asia or anywhere abroad? Sorry I can't remember your trip.

I think Paul's last post about how this is unknowingly spread afar is what is so scary and what other's have been trying to say about the right to travel vs. public health concerns.

It's the May 9th SIN to HKG (now SIN).   His concern is the APAC region. 

[corpkid]

 

12 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Oddly enough, I feel pretty safe right here on Nautica. The boarding restrictions in Cape Town  were significant including embarkation personnel leading through the passports to make sure you had no recent mainland China stamps.

That's great news.  It however doesn't change the fact that cruise ships are quite effective transmission vectors as history has shown us time and time again. Nautica is a small ship and is well maintained so I also would not be concerned, but aware.

Edited February 17, 2020 by corpkid

[corpkid]

8 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Agreed. But, if things really started down the zombie apocalypse road, I'm betting governments would make some very economically hard decision about closing borders to all transportation.

Especially non-essential cruise ships.

[Paulchili]

19 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

The boarding restrictions in Cape Town  were significant including embarkation personnel leading through the passports to make sure you had no recent mainland China stamps.

I would not call that "significant restrictions" - more like adequate.

Case in point - we are booked on a Seabourn cruise leaving Sydney on 3/8. We were notified by SB that any passenger TRANSITING through China or HKG will not be allowed to board. We were booked on Cathay transiting in HKG. As transit passengers we would not have received any stamps in our passports indicating we were in HKG so we theoretically could have "slipped" through.

We did change our flights.

You were fortunate that O did not have the same restrictions as I believe you transited in HKG on the way to CPT.

Edited February 17, 2020 by Paulchili

[drkitkat123]

I wonder about the crew and if their screening or level of disclosure is as high as that for passengers. They are living in very confined quarters.  I wonder if they are the issue on the Diamond Princess - how did the confined passengers get their food and from whom, were their cabins cleaned, how was their laundry collected and done?

[corpkid]

Here is the World Health Organization's daily COVID-19 report.  Lots of good information.

 

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200217-sitrep-28-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=a19cf2ad_2

Edited February 17, 2020 by corpkid