NCLH Stock Price

[Beezo]

I've also wondered if NCL is exploring an entrance into the fast growing Expedition market. Many of the new ships are also in the Luxury/Expedition market. If so, could be a new segment for the Regent brand.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, Beezo said:

I've also wondered if NCL is exploring an entrance into the fast growing Expedition market. Many of the new ships are also in the Luxury/Expedition market. If so, could be a new segment for the Regent brand.

 

Right now it's a rumor. With the price point in the rumor mill, these are 5 small ships. If I were in the cruise business, I'd be building smaller ships. If true, I'm betting it's for Oceana or Regent. But before I believe anything, I need to see where the money is coming from. Right now the book is black. Who is financing? More Saudi influence?  NCL refused to comment. Let's see what they have to say May 10th. I don't believe it's a coincidence this leaked a few days before an earnings call.

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[oteixeira]

God help me I saw CCL dip to 16.7 and I went and bought more.   LOL

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

God help me I saw CCL dip to 16.7 and I went and bought more.   LOL

 

I love you.

 

Edit: I should clarify. I mean I totally get where you are coming from and I'm laughing because I understand.  UPS dropped to 18s and I bought more. Then it went into the 17s and it's taken a week to get back to my price point. The market is so squirrely. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[oteixeira]

10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I love you.

 

Edit: I should clarify. I mean I totally get where you are coming from and I'm laughing because I understand.  UPS dropped to 18s and I bought more. Then it went into the 17s and it's taken a week to get back to my price point. The market is so squirrely. 

Totally, I was posting to remind myself how DUMB it is for me to purchase a dip the day before one major competitor does earnings and  6 days before the other does them, knowing that Q1 earning are probably not going to shine....We are all just trying to navigate crazy because now more then ever things get priced in way before they happen (I am looking at you fed increase for today).

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Totally, I was posting to remind myself how DUMB it is for me to purchase a dip the day before one major competitor does earnings and  6 days before the other does them, knowing that Q1 earning are probably not going to shine....We are all just trying to navigate crazy because now more then ever things get priced in way before they happen (I am looking at you fed increase for today).

 

It's not a bad move. Today's lows are baking in tomorrow's release. This is all market manipulation.

[BermudaBound2014]

RCL release linked below. Lots of rah rah rah about future bookings. Ships could only draw 59% occupancy first quarter and they are saying 100% by the end of the year? So optimistic lol

 

This stood out to me:

The company's net loss widened to $1.17 billion in the first quarter ended March 31, from $1.13 billion, a year earlier.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/royal-caribbean-misses-revenue-estimates-omicron-ukraine-crisis-hamper-demand-2022-05-05/

 

Down 3% pre trading but gaining. Opening bell in 2 minutes 🙂 let's see if that 10 am pattern continues. It's been 10/2 like clockwork.

Edited May 5, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[oteixeira]

23 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

RCL release linked below. Lots of rah rah rah about future bookings. Ships could only draw 59% occupancy first quarter and they are saying 100% by the end of the year? So optimistic lol

 

This stood out to me:

The company's net loss widened to $1.17 billion in the first quarter ended March 31, from $1.13 billion, a year earlier.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/royal-caribbean-misses-revenue-estimates-omicron-ukraine-crisis-hamper-demand-2022-05-05/

 

Down 3% pre trading but gaining. Opening bell in 2 minutes 🙂 let's see if that 10 am pattern continues. It's been 10/2 like clockwork.

So they are down but if you look at the industry they are +2% better then the other cruise stocks.  If it wasn't a blood bath today they would be up.  Also, my key take away (as the sunshine side of the story) is:
 

-Cash flow positive starting in April

-Net Profit by h2 2022

 

Now, you can either believe it or not, we all know that.

[BermudaBound2014]

I'm soooo kicking myself.  I was extremely close to shorting 500 RCL yesterday at $77.2. That is what I've been doing with each release since last June and it has been very profitable, but I didn't pull the trigger because there has been such built in manipulation. Oh well. That's $1,500 lost opportunity. How low will this go? And NCLH/CCL are both down even more at almost 7%! Of course, today is a blood bath everywhere, but these stocks are taking an extra beating. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[oteixeira]

Yea, Tesla, AMD, NVidea and so many more also down very close to or more then 7%.  Terrible day to admit you bought some new shares yesterday.  LOL   Sorry you went against your instincts.  NCL has a call on the 10th, be ready.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, oteixeira said:

Yea, Tesla, AMD, NVidea and so many more also down very close to or more then 7%.  Terrible day to admit you bought some new shares yesterday.  LOL   Sorry you went against your instincts.  NCL has a call on the 10th, be ready.

 

 

 

I don't own telsa or Nvidea. The only other stock in my portfolio performing worse is Ebay. But even all my shorts aren't covering today's loses. Is this just a compensating for yesterday's end day rally? 1/2 percent isn't that much and the rest of the Feds report wasn't that bad.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Yea, Tesla, AMD, NVidea and so many more also down very close to or more then 7%.  Terrible day to admit you bought some new shares yesterday.  LOL   Sorry you went against your instincts.  NCL has a call on the 10th, be ready.

 

 

 

And FWIW I actually thought your CCL purchase at 16.70 might turn out to be a nice swing day trade. I still think you are going to be ok with that buy. I wouldn't hold it long, but it's bound to hit 17 again. But see, All that hesitation is why I didn't short RCL. The market is soooo squirrely. 

Edited May 5, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

They are climbing again. Let's hope for another end of day rally. 

[At Sea At Peace]

On 5/4/2022 at 10:58 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Seriously, it's killing me not to take advantage of some of these prices!!! I've spent 8 of the last 16 months in Maui because I just don't want to jump through the hoops and then have a risk of quarantine and Maui is much more expensive than cruising, but it's packed!!

 

 

Yep.  We sat on our balconies watching the RCL, CCL, PCL and HAL ships, many very new, come and go every week since late October.  100% about the 'risk of quarantine' and 'separation' as well.

 

On 5/4/2022 at 10:58 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And I'm a major cruise lover who hasn't wanted to jump through the current hoops.

 

 

Yep, we're also down and out, to ZERO weeks cruising, since December of 2019 from 12 weeks in 2019 with planned expectations at the time to add prospective some TA's and possibly a segment of a world.  Not in the works for now.

[oteixeira]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

And FWIW I actually thought your CCL purchase at 16.70 might turn out to be a nice swing day trade. I still think you are going to be ok with that buy. I wouldn't hold it long, but it's bound to hit 17 again. But see, All that hesitation is why I didn't short RCL. The market is soooo squirrely. 

I should have DAY traded it, would have made a dollar a share.  I normally hold for a week or so when I swing trade, at least a couple of days.  It burned me today, but I do agree that I should be able to make quick money on shares at this price point.  

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

This doesn't help.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

23 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

This doesn't help.

 

 

 

That's nothing... did you see the Ruby Princess with 253 covid positive? Also the Grand Princess and 2 HAL ships. First ship to return to Australia has covid onboard too. The Edge is also struggling. It's a hot mess express. 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, oteixeira said:

I should have DAY traded it, would have made a dollar a share.  I normally hold for a week or so when I swing trade, at least a couple of days.  It burned me today, but I do agree that I should be able to make quick money on shares at this price point.  

 

 

 

Yep, coulda shouda woulda. Looks like RCL closed at 73.6. Had I shorted 500 of those yesterday that would be a quick two grand. We're both on the struggle bus, but as you say I do think your trade is going to end up lucrative. You hold swings a bit longer than I do. Usually my swings I plan for less than 3 days but I'm currently holding Ebay and WGo that I wanted to swing but the price has fallen out. This is going to require patience. 

 

End of the day... looks like NCL was the days loser at -6.91%. CCL was a close second, and RCL wins the day because it only lost 5.41% lol. It's a mess.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

CDC lowers threshold to 90% but Cruise line stock is lagging in response.

 

NCL is down over 15% in just the last two weeks. 

 

[oteixeira]

Yea, they seem to be dropping around 2-3x of the general market (DJIA is down 5 percent in the last two weeks give or take)....NCL normally plays in the 2-2.5x beta range, so it is playing in it's normal pond compared to the market.  I just want us to find the bottom of this mess that has come the past few months.

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Yea, they seem to be dropping around 2-3x of the general market (DJIA is down 5 percent in the last two weeks give or take)....NCL normally plays in the 2-2.5x beta range, so it is playing in it's normal pond compared to the market.  I just want us to find the bottom of this mess that has come the past few months.

 

I'm so conflicted. The stocks dropping are cash positive for me, but I love cruising so it's a bit heartbreaking at the same time. I'm shorting a few other industries and that's the only thing that is keeping me afloat. If war is officially declared Monday it's not going to be pretty. 

 

But, I agree, that is the million dollar question..... Where is the bottom? I don't think this is it. I think cruise stock won't find the bottom until Q4. I think there is another rally into the 20's. But I'm just a little girl:). 

[oteixeira]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm so conflicted. The stocks dropping are cash positive for me, but I love cruising so it's a bit heartbreaking at the same time. I'm shorting a few other industries and that's the only thing that is keeping me afloat. If war is officially declared Monday it's not going to be pretty. 

 

But, I agree, that is the million dollar question..... Where is the bottom? I don't think this is it. I think cruise stock won't find the bottom until Q4. I think there is another rally into the 20's. But I'm just a little girl:). 

I am honestly thinking 10 more percent (entire market) from EOD today.  And the think the experts all call for a total of 10% pullback, we are already there and nothing is indicating this is anywhere near a bottom.

[smillerholmes]

I only need 42 more shares to get the Shareholder Benefit.  I had previously told myself I was waiting for $17 now with the price below that and the earnings call tomorrow I am thinking of holding off...I hope I am not going to be kicking myself later this week.

 

It's just so maddening and I am not even going to bring up the fact that I could have bought all 100 shares at $7, but I thought eh, what's the hurry?

 

  

 

[At Sea At Peace]

Enjoy the conversation of @oteixeira and @BermudaBound2014 back and forth, civil and respectful.  At the moment (3:26EST) RCL and NCLH < 11% down with CCL right behind < 10%.

 

There might be an end of day bump as some like to do that to paint the tape for some reason.

 

Regarding where the 'bottom' is, I'm very, very bearish on the equities of these three; to the point that, despite the expectation of periodic ups and downs, good news and bad news, in the 12-24 month period ahead I just can't see any of the three make it without (1) a significant, dilutive equity investor or (2) a prepack restructuring by the most senior debtors.

 

I understand that I'm appearing doomsday and downtrodden.  However, there are just so many factors that have piled up against the cruise line industry that the data simply appears to point in that direction.

 

We absolutely are cruise lovers, miss cruising awfully bad, take comfort knowing that the newest and most efficient ships, including those to come, will always sail under some ownership, the current 'model' just couldn't withstand the 'pile on factors' after the devastating 'pandemic' event and timeline.

 

I believe NCL posts earnings tomorrow before 'the bell' and I wonder if there are leaks.  From my perspective, the biggest risk management takes is making a 'going concern' proffer of confidence that they can meet all obligations over the next 12 months.  It would appear that there are so many 'what ifs' that that would be harder and harder each quarter and 10Q.

 

Reading MSC's 2021, the Auditor's 'factors' and 'assessments and responses' were much tougher than those in the US, and they had 100% of their 2021 losses totally funded by capital infusion by the sole owner shipping company parent.

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[oteixeira]

4 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Enjoy the conversation of @oteixeira and @BermudaBound2014 back and forth, civil and respectful.  At the moment (3:26EST) RCL and NCLH < 11% down with CCL right behind < 10%.

 

There might be an end of day bump as some like to do that to paint the tape for some reason.

 

Regarding where the 'bottom' is, I'm very, very bearish on the equities of these three; to the point that, despite the expectation of periodic ups and downs, good news and bad news, in the 12-24 month period ahead I just can't see any of the three make it without (1) a significant, dilutive equity investor or (2) a prepack restructuring by the most senior debtors.

 

I understand that I'm appearing doomsday and downtrodden.  However, there are just so many factors that have piled up against the cruise line industry that the data simply appears to point in that direction.

 

We absolutely are cruise lovers, miss cruising awfully bad, take comfort knowing that the newest and most efficient ships, including those to come, will always sail under some ownership, the current 'model' just couldn't withstand the 'pile on factors' after the devastating 'pandemic' event and timeline.

 

I just want to say I respect your opinion here as well, and enjoy your comments on the subject.  I am hoping for less 12% down days going forward, but I think we could still drop another 3-4 dollars before a turn around.  I think the magic number if you are looking broader would be around 3750-3800 on the S&P 500 index.

All that said, we are all just guessing right now, and we all know the saying about trying to catch a falling knife.  I have cash sitting in my equity account that I always hold for times like this (to make money you have to buy when everyone else is selling or hitting stop limits IMHO) and I am just trying to time pushing it in.  Now, it won't all be in travel, I have a much more balanced portfolio but I tend to stick to travel when we speak here.  I am sure you all know I have taken a beating since April 1st, but anyone holding almost any non oil stock has.  All that said the majority of my cruise stocks were purchased in March/April of 2020 and I am still up (but of course lost a ton of unrealized gain) from my buy in price on MOST of it.  Stupid CCL.  LOL

Good luck to you, I am not sure you ever stated if you have any stake right now our are on the sideline watching.