NCLH Stock Price

[At Sea At Peace]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

The only thing funnier then those web sites are any of the message boards out there that follow stocks.  Basically people pumping up stocks that they missed opportunities on and are now bag holding.  Funny and sad all at the same time.  

 

Generally true.  I missed following one young guy though in 2008-2009 who recommended (and he did, 30 something years old, now retired and touring the world) buying WAMU Q (Piers, a debt equity hybrid) for 4/100ths of a penny (.0004).  During the reorganization they were selling at $25.00 face (to control a class of votes by the hedge funds).  If math is correct, missed that 62,500X multiple.  😯

[BermudaBound2014]

On 4/4/2022 at 10:20 AM, oteixeira said:

So, if they are still lying they are doing a good job of it.  Got a nice post bell pop today on this article (on all 3 lines):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-cruise-line-sees-its-highest-booking-week-ever-as-it-finds-another-way-to-celebrate-its-50th-birthday-301517144.html

Also, @BermudaBound2014 are you sure about the Sunshine?  That is not a Fantasy class ship, which are their oldest, and I can't find anything about them scraping it.  

Fake News. I’m surprised you repeated it here without a full explanation.

 

As I mentioned, all CCL customers with FCC were held hostage by a March 31st booking deadline. Of course CCL had record breaking sales last week. No where in the history of the industry have so many consumers been forced thru the same hole. 
 

This article is another example Of market media manipulation- and based on the post bell pop lots of people fell for the ploy.

 

I contemplated buying more shorts this morning for a quick swing, but by the time I got up the bottom already fell out as Most quickly realized this was just more smoke and mirrors.

 

I see no reason to believe that the sh*t storm isn’t still brewing. 

 

 

[At Sea At Peace]

On 4/4/2022 at 5:00 PM, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Can you say O-BA.1. O-1BA.2 and the XE variants all at once with the grand finale the MTE variant?  😲

 

 

https://mostnewtheeducation.com/2022/04/06/massachusetts-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-27-hospitalizations-rise/

 

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/stealth-omicron-now-eyed-in-84-of-ny-area-infections-more-than-doubling-its-prevalence-in-2-weeks-cdc/3631455/

 

Whether or not more transmissible or not, or whether or not more resultant in hospitalization or not, or whether or not more lethal or not, or whether or not more breakthrough cases in 1 dose, 2 dose, 1 booster and/or 2 booster or not ~

 

It'll be 'in the minds' of those ~

 

1.  most at risk, or near those most at risk,  by age

2.  most underlying comorbidities

3.  in environments with risk, i.e., airlines, hotels and restaurants (and cruise ships).

 

Other than family cruisers in certain seasons and holidays, the cruise line passenger demographics include at lot of 1 and 2.

 

And it is not even Summer or Fall, lest Winter tag along.

 

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Fake News. I’m surprised you repeated it here without a full explanation.

 

As I mentioned, all CCL customers with FCC were held hostage by a March 31st booking deadline. Of course CCL had record breaking sales last week. No where in the history of the industry have so many consumers been forced thru the same hole. 
 

This article is another example Of market media manipulation- and based on the post bell pop lots of people fell for the ploy.

 

I contemplated buying more shorts this morning for a quick swing, but by the time I got up the bottom already fell out as Most quickly realized this was just more smoke and mirrors.

 

I see no reason to believe that the sh*t storm isn’t still brewing. 

 

 

To be clear, the cruise stocks were some of the only green stocks today.  Saying a 2.5% pop (ending the day) on a day when almost every other stock was down (and some big) is the bottom falling out is kind of an exaggeration.  But, you are right, you could have made a dollar a share today on the short if you timed it right.  I was still happy for an up day when the entire market was way down.

Now, was it good marketing tied into FCCs needed to be cashed in??  Sure, but good marketing is part of how you need to work a public company to be successful.  Just another tool in the toolbox.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by oteixeira

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

To be clear, the cruise stocks were some of the only green stocks today.  Saying a 2.5% pop (ending the day) on a day when almost every other stock was down (and some big) is the bottom falling out is kind of an exaggeration.  But, you are right, you could have made a dollar a share today on the short if you timed it right.  I was still happy for an up day when the entire market was way down.

Now, was it good marketing tied into FCCs needed to be cashed in??  Sure, but good marketing is part of how you need to work a public company to be successful.  Just another tool in the toolbox.

 

 

Since i was specifically referencing swinging the after hours “pop” associated with the fake news you linked, by the time I woke up (remember I’m 6 hours behind you) the bottom of that “pop” most certainly had fallen out. Unless you consider .04 cents a share worth swinging which is the difference between the opening and closing bell, there wasn’t any money for shorts or longs to make swinging today. 
 

Like I said- a fake news article put out by the cruise lines to sucker the Misinformed into believing bookings are at a record high. It’s just not possible. 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

https://mostnewtheeducation.com/2022/04/06/massachusetts-coronavirus-cases-jump-by-27-hospitalizations-rise/

 

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/stealth-omicron-now-eyed-in-84-of-ny-area-infections-more-than-doubling-its-prevalence-in-2-weeks-cdc/3631455/

 

Whether or not more transmissible or not, or whether or not more resultant in hospitalization or not, or whether or not more lethal or not, or whether or not more breakthrough cases in 1 dose, 2 dose, 1 booster and/or 2 booster or not ~

 

It'll be 'in the minds' of those ~

 

1.  most at risk, or near those most at risk,  by age

2.  most underlying comorbidities

3.  in environments with risk, i.e., airlines, hotels and restaurants (and cruise ships).

 

Other than family cruisers in certain seasons and holidays, the cruise line passenger demographics include at lot of 1 and 2.

 

And it is not even Summer or Fall, lest Winter tag along.

 

I would add that a booster requirement, which seems to be on the increase in some European counties, is likely going to impact the Mediterranean season. There are only 27% of Americans who have accepted the booster. Doubtful they will get a booster just to cruise when there are so many other vacation choices without added complications of pre cruise testing, boosting, and mask wearing. 

 

PS- the very recent minor outbreak on the Ruby Princess demonstrates that at any time passengers maybe required to mask back up. While not prevalent in the summer season, passengers should know that masking is a possibility at any given moment. 
 

Every obstacle is yet another challenge. 

[At Sea At Peace]

21 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Every obstacle is yet another challenge. 

 

Yep.

 

With the FED announcing it is going to reduce its balance sheet $95B 'per month' going forward, that puts massive pressure on bonds and indirectly equities (especially those with debt instruments).

 

That # is over a trillion in a current year period.

 

So, even though the cruise lines did a decent job of refinancing their early-pandemic new debt with better terms and conditions (rates) in the past year, many/most of the refi's will come due post-FED policy change.  INTEREST EXPENSE for the cruise lines will increase on already increased MASSIVE DEBT load.

 

So, as you note, another obstacle.

 

There are many and the bookings show the biggest (new bookings, excluding credit forward bookings).  They are not there.  And, more ships coming on line, more ships being built.  Supply >>>>> Demand escapes the basic thought process of the industry.

 

LAST LIFE LINE?

 

Negotiate flagging in the US in a pre-arranged deal to get US aid?  Unlikely.  And if not, or the answer is no, into the hedge fund distressed debt restructuring model they will go.

 

IMO, use your FCC's ASAP and stop making 2023+ deposits.

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[BermudaBound2014]

Ok friends, here we go. RCL will announce their earnings before the bell this Thursday and NCL will release Thursday, May 10th. 

 

Zacks estimated RCL losing $4.65 per share and missing their target. The stock has been beaten up the last two days in preparation. All the lines are really stretching the forward looking statements. I just  don't trust the market manipulators.

 

 

 

 

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Ok friends, here we go. RCL will announce their earnings before the bell this Thursday and NCL will release Thursday, May 10th. 

 

Zacks estimated RCL losing $4.65 per share and missing their target. The stock has been beaten up the last two days in preparation. All the lines are really stretching the forward looking statements. I just  don't trust the market manipulators.

 

 

 

 

I will be honest as we always are here.  I have taken a beating in the past month, it's been tough for the whole market, but I feel extra tender from the travel related stocks.  :)  I am also looking forward to what the report will hold, hoping they "beat" the market, but at this point, who knows....

Is there any sector that you are doing well in?  For the first time in a long time I feel kind of lost, the whole market seems bad right now.  Maybe I will just hold my cash for a while and wait for things to turn....

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

I will be honest as we always are here.  I have taken a beating in the past month, it's been tough for the whole market, but I feel extra tender from the travel related stocks.  🙂 I am also looking forward to what the report will hold, hoping they "beat" the market, but at this point, who knows....

Is there any sector that you are doing well in?  For the first time in a long time I feel kind of lost, the whole market seems bad right now.  Maybe I will just hold my cash for a while and wait for things to turn....

 

It's not just you. The market was oversold. Gas prices. War with Russia. Interest rate hike. You know what they say, if it walks like a duck....

 

I'm doing extremely well in every single one of my shorts, but that's kinda sad :(. 

 

I've done twice as good as the DJ, but that is still sucky. The energy sector and my shorts have held me up in 2022, but over all I sit with  less today than I did January 1st. You are not alone.

 

I think the housing market is going to turn. Having cash on hand to take advantage of that opportunity allowed me to sail through the last recession, so I'm leaving that door open. 

 

I keep seeing cruise lines manipulating things to make the future appear bright. Just today rumors emerged about NCL buying more ships. It's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but it makes people think NCL must be fine. I'm still not buying it. 

[oteixeira]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It's not just you. The market was oversold. Gas prices. War with Russia. Interest rate hike. You know what they say, if it walks like a duck....

 

I'm doing extremely well in every single one of my shorts, but that's kinda sad :(. 

 

I've done twice as good as the DJ, but that is still sucky. The energy sector and my shorts have held me up in 2022, but over all I sit with  less today than I did January 1st. You are not alone.

 

I think the housing market is going to turn. Having cash on hand to take advantage of that opportunity allowed me to sail through the last recession, so I'm leaving that door open. 

 

I keep seeing cruise lines manipulating things to make the future appear bright. Just today rumors emerged about NCL buying more ships. It's not a lot of money in the grand scheme of things, but it makes people think NCL must be fine. I'm still not buying it. 

I don't know what to think, you know I monitor last minute booking prices as a gauge to what is going on with capacity and I can tell you they have shot up in the past few weeks, but is it just the lines deciding they would rather not give away births or is it truly more people onboard?  I know that we are back to 60-70% which is slightly lower then normal after spring break (traditionally the onboard folks would tell you 70-80 on sailings this time of year unless we are talking Europe which NORMALLY is more booked in the summer, but we shall see).  

[BermudaBound2014]

4 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

I don't know what to think, you know I monitor last minute booking prices as a gauge to what is going on with capacity and I can tell you they have shot up in the past few weeks, but is it just the lines deciding they would rather not give away births or is it truly more people onboard?  I know that we are back to 60-70% which is slightly lower then normal after spring break (traditionally the onboard folks would tell you 70-80 on sailings this time of year unless we are talking Europe which NORMALLY is more booked in the summer, but we shall see).  

 

I'm not coming to the same conclusion. If you are noticing a price jump in the Caribbean I believe that has to do with supply and demand but I'm still seeing multiple 7 night cruises in a balcony for less than $700. And look at this interior, CCL is giving it away. When was the list time you saw a 7 night cruise go for less than $200 pp? 

 

I'm not monitoring the Caribbean much, but many ships have moved to Alaska and I am monitoring Alaska. The Last minute deals in Alaska are still phenomenal. Actually, NCL is more expensive than many. You can do 7 nights in an interior for a $250 on several RCL ships and under $500 in a balcony.

 

Here is one from HAL that typically doesn't discount Alaska too terribly much:

 

 

 

And our NCL girls....

 

 

 

I don't track Europe prices, so I'm useless in that market. What am I missing?

[oteixeira]

18 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't track Europe prices, so I'm useless in that market. What am I missing?

Let's just say that it seems to be lower in cost that I remember before the pandemic.  Similar to what you are seeing in Alaska.  

[fstuff1]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

 

 

I don't track Europe prices, so I'm useless in that market. What am I missing?

 

newest ship encore cheaper than bliss?? 😮

what's going on?

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by fstuff1

[At Sea At Peace]

Love watching the cruise line stocks and enjoying the discussions pro and con. 

 

At first it was the pandemic 24/7/365 and the CDC requirements and the CLIA and cruise line adoptions.  The PR was FALL BOOKINGS LOOK GOOD.  Omicron hit.  The PR was the SPRING BOOKINGS LOOK GREAT.  (PS, yes I am yelling to reflect the same effort the the cruise line PRs).

Then the passenger counts started to go up from the 35-50%, in the past PR future prognosticated good and great bookings.  End of 2022 likely 'all set.'  Bookings for 2022-2023 season 'record days sales' and 'record weekly sales.'  For one week at the end of March.

 

Then more ships returned.  Newest ships arrived.  Prices dropped, hard to fill ships.  Family vacations in April up the good vibes on passenger counts.  NOW a May lull.  The rest of the ships returning.  SUMMER LOOKS GOOD per the PRs.

 

Masks are essentially gone.  But inflation is nasty and is cutting into hundreds of dollars per week for the broad class of travelers, more so for families.  Food, fuel inflation awful.  Flights to cruise, cost increases noticeably higher.  Cruise line costs for fuel, food and staffing hit also.  European conflict, a 'game changer at any moment.'  Interest rates skyrocketing, hitting adjustable rate loans and HELOCs on homes, and cars, etc.

 

PRs theme?  Booking look good in 2023.  Most of our fleet will be fully restored.  New ships on the way.

 

IMO, this summer might have the only 6+ weeks of 'profitable sailings' and we head into Fall and Winter again.  People do want "one chance to get away from the 2-year pandemic" limitations of life and travel.

 

I'm not in, or short.  On the sidelines.

 

I appreciate those tracking last minute bookings (please share) and prices on the various lines, as well as posting of passenger counts (it doesn't matter if 100% of the ships are back if they aren't close to full).

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

This is one of my favorite threads. I love chatting stock and appreciate how those of us on both sides of the coin are respectful and truly believe we wish each other the best. It's refreshing.

 

Few comments on your post @At Sea At Peace

 

- You wrote: "Bookings for 2022-2023 season 'record days sales' and 'record weekly sales.'  For one week at the end of March." .... I just want to restate that this PR headline was grossly misleading. CCL had a record week because their FCC's were expiring and everyone was pigeon holed into booking that week or lose the FCC. Seriously, the 'news' just isn't what it was a decade ago. The whole truth is rarely portrayed.

 

- I absolutely agree that this summer is going to be the best cruise lines do for awhile. There is pent up travel demand, but the problem is that many have excluded cruising due to the 'petri dish' reputation. If that didn't kill off consumer demand, the current news about increasing quarantine measures is bound to have an effect. Why would Johnny Public want to risk all the pretesting and then being quarantined when they can choose a land vacation and avoid all that risk (by Johnny Public I mean 'regular' folks who don't  have a deep love of the sea).

 

My rational for staying short: At first people were claiming that cruising was the safest way to travel, but that has been completely debunked with current outbreaks. What we know now is that the current protocols are failing to keep covid off ships. In addition, the measures that cruise ships are forced to take (all the testing and quarantining) is driving (and will continue to drive) people away from choosing to cruise. Until the protocols are changed, my outlook remains bleak. Here are a few headlines from this week:

 

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/passengers-say-covid-overwhelmed-carnival-cruise-ship-docked-in-seattle/

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10777169/Covid-outbreak-cruise-Coral-Geographer-Darwin-isolation.html

 

https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/covid-in-hawaii-we-are-in-princess-cruise-jail-now/

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2022/04/27/ruby-princess-coronavirus-outbreaks/

 

 

The final straw for Genting bankruptcy was the inability to pay on a ship currently being built. Considering all the future builds that are under construction contract (which can't be cancelled) and there is a tremendous saturation of the market. Demand low. Supply high.

 

Cruise ships are still operating at a negative. Doesn't matter how many ships return to sail if they can't fill them the balance sheet stays red. And the debt! Whoa!!! Add to all rising interest rates and inflation at a record pace......

 

I still betting short for the win. 

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[oteixeira]

32 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Love watching the cruise line stocks and enjoying the discussions pro and con. 

 

At first it was the pandemic 24/7/365 and the CDC requirements and the CLIA and cruise line adoptions.  The PR was FALL BOOKINGS LOOK GOOD.  Omicron hit.  The PR was the SPRING BOOKINGS LOOK GREAT.  (PS, yes I am yelling to reflect the same effort the the cruise line PRs).

Then the passenger counts started to go up from the 35-50%, in the past PR future prognosticated good and great bookings.  End of 2022 likely 'all set.'  Bookings for 2022-2023 season 'record days sales' and 'record weekly sales.'  For one week at the end of March.

 

Then more ships returned.  Newest ships arrived.  Prices dropped, hard to fill ships.  Family vacations in April up the good vibes on passenger counts.  NOW a May lull.  The rest of the ships returning.  SUMMER LOOKS GOOD per the PRs.

 

Masks are essentially gone.  But inflation is nasty and is cutting into hundreds of dollars per week for the broad class of travelers, more so for families.  Food, fuel inflation awful.  Flights to cruise, cost increases noticeably higher.  Cruise line costs for fuel, food and staffing hit also.  European conflict, a 'game changer at any moment.'  Interest rates skyrocketing, hitting adjustable rate loans and HELOCs on homes, and cars, etc.

 

PRs theme?  Booking look good in 2023.  Most of our fleet will be fully restored.  New ships on the way.

 

IMO, this summer might have the only 6+ weeks of 'profitable sailings' and we head into Fall and Winter again.  People do want "one chance to get away from the 2-year pandemic" limitations of life and travel.

 

I'm not in, or short.  On the sidelines.

 

I appreciate those tracking last minute bookings (please share) and prices on the various lines, as well as posting of passenger counts (it doesn't matter if 100% of the ships are back if they aren't close to full).

 

 

-As long as they require tests there will be a percentage of folks who wont go

-As long as they require vaccines there will be a different percentage of folks who wont go

 

I think these two things are hitting them just as hard as inflation, and let's be clear, Food and Fuel are not even in the calculation of the "skyrocketing" inflation that the news tells us, and those two are much worse then the rest of the inflation numbers.  :(  Like I said, between the war news and the inflation news I have taken a beating the past month or so, but I am in long so I will just hold and hope things start to turn.

 

 

[oteixeira]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

My rational for staying short: At first people were claiming that cruising was the safest way to travel, but that has been completely debunked with current outbreaks. What we know now is that the current protocols are failing to keep covid off ships. In addition, the measures that cruise ships are forced to take (all the testing and quarantining) is driving (and will continue to drive) people away from choosing to cruise. Until the protocols are changed, my outlook remains bleak. Here are a few headlines from this week:

 

This is why I think they should be able to stop testing.  Disney doesn't need to report this, but you better believe there is COVID in their hotels.  Same with Vegas.  The fact that ships have to test and quarantine gives them a look (bad) that no other industry has right now.  The real question is how many folks were actually sick?  More then a cold sick?  Actually needed hospitalization?  Let's report those numbers if we have to report any at all, because they are close to zero for all three.  

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

-As long as they require tests there will be a percentage of folks who wont go

-As long as they require vaccines there will be a different percentage of folks who wont go

 

I think these two things are hitting them just as hard as inflation, and let's be clear, Food and Fuel are not even in the calculation of the "skyrocketing" inflation that the news tells us, and those two are much worse then the rest of the inflation numbers.  😞 Like I said, between the war news and the inflation news I have taken a beating the past month or so, but I am in long so I will just hold and hope things start to turn.

 

 

 

I like this site which shows both Core Inflation rate and 'regular' inflation rate, but this chart is also extremely misleading because it's a 12 month average and inflation really hit the last 4 months. Look at the core inflation rate (inflation rate minus food and energy) is posted as less than regular inflation and we all know that is total BS. I suspect core inflation rates over the last 3-4 months are double what this chart shows. This is more media manipulation to support the current administration. Had Republicans been in control I believe the spin would be similar. 

 

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/united-states-core-inflation-rates/

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

This is why I think they should be able to stop testing.  Disney doesn't need to report this, but you better believe there is COVID in their hotels.  Same with Vegas.  The fact that ships have to test and quarantine gives them a look (bad) that no other industry has right now.  The real question is how many folks were actually sick?  More then a cold sick?  Actually needed hospitalization?  Let's report those numbers if we have to report any at all, because they are close to zero for all three.  

 

Bingo! You hit the nail on the head. 

 

BUT......... let's say the testing and quarantining are removed, we still have to overcome image of cruising in a petri dish. This image pushed hard at the onset of the pandemic and, unfortunately, may take decades to erase. 

[oteixeira]

Just now, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Bingo! You hit the nail on the head. 

 

BUT......... let's say the testing and quarantining are removed, we still have to overcome image of cruising in a petri dish. This image pushed hard at the onset of the pandemic and, unfortunately, may take decades to erase. 

Who are we kidding, before the pandemic it was a petri dish on the news because of Noro and all the other very small outbreaks that were less then on land.  The news has a narrative for cruising, and they simply don't want it to succeed.  The good news is cruise lines thrived even in the pre-pandemic petri dish news cycle, so I still have hope.

[BermudaBound2014]

10 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Who are we kidding, before the pandemic it was a petri dish on the news because of Noro and all the other very small outbreaks that were less then on land.  The news has a narrative for cruising, and they simply don't want it to succeed.  The good news is cruise lines thrived even in the pre-pandemic petri dish news cycle, so I still have hope.

 

Unfortunately, I think post-pandemic is much different. I think the way that a great geal of the general public approaches any virus is different now and will likely be different for the remainder of my lifetime. Before covid, virtually no one had heard about forced quarantine on cruise ships. It was rare, today it's in the news almost daily.

 

Take mask wearing for example. Very few people wore masks (at least in the uSA). I think mask wearing by some is here to stay, furthering my belief that we have become much more cautious of 'catching' a virus. This extra caution will likely push people away from cruising where population density is an issue. 

 

Of course, this is just my belief. I could be wrong 🙂 

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[At Sea At Peace]

19 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

This is why I think they should be able to stop testing.  Disney doesn't need to report this, but you better believe there is COVID in their hotels.  Same with Vegas.  The fact that ships have to test and quarantine gives them a look (bad) that no other industry has right now.  The real question is how many folks were actually sick?  More then a cold sick?  Actually needed hospitalization?  Let's report those numbers if we have to report any at all, because they are close to zero for all three.  

 

14 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Bingo! You hit the nail on the head. 

 

BUT......... let's say the testing and quarantining are removed, we still have to overcome image of cruising in a petri dish. This image pushed hard at the onset of the pandemic and, unfortunately, may take decades to erase. 

 

Yep and yep.

 

The only reason we did not return to 2022 spring cruising, before we left back to NH for the summer on the lake, was that we didn't want to end up on the ship later testing positive and being quarantined, possibly separated.  It's the only reason we didn't jump on some great bookings in the 2022 Fall pre-holidays also, across RCL, NCL and MSC.  So, we'll wait until our return to FLL in the mid-fall, reassess the protocols, and see what pops up last minute.

 

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[BermudaBound2014]

9 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

Yep and yep.

 

The only reason we did not return to 2022 spring cruising, before we left back to NH for the summer on the lake, was that we didn't want to end up on the ship later testing positive and being quarantined, possibly separated.  It's the only reason we didn't jump on some great bookings in the Fall pre-holidays also, across RCL, NCL and MSC.  So, we'll wait until our return to FLL in the mid-fall, reassess the protocols, and see what pops up last minute.

 

 

 

Seriously, it's killing me not to take advantage of some of these prices!!! I've spent 8 of the last 16 months in Maui because I just don't want to jump through the hoops and then have a risk of quarantine and Maui is much more expensive than cruising, but it's packed!! Unlike cruising, Maui tourism has fully rebounded and the pricing has skyrocketed.

 

And I'm a major cruise lover who hasn't wanted to jump through the current hoops. Think of the people who just 'like' cruises as opposed to 'love' them. They are headed to land resorts and our national parks (which also have record high attendance). We spent October in Yellowstone, and that is normally major off season, yet finding accommodations was extremely difficult (and pricy). Glacier National Park has had to resort to timed admission to drive Going to the Sun road due to over crowding. Currently Winnebago and Thor have enough RV's on order to fill the next 5 years.

 

People are traveling, they just aren't cruising. 

 

The industry is a mess.

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Beezo]

With earnings set for this week, there was also a leaked report that NCLH is close to locking down a$4B order for new ships at Fincantieri.  Most likely additional orders for Oceania and Regent, but still at least showing optimism for the future. They also clearly needed financing approvals for these to go forward so an audit may agree things might have truly turned the corner.

 

https://maritime-executive.com/article/report-fincantieri-is-finalizing-4b-order-from-norwegian-cruise-line

 

I'm expecting this weeks earning to be in line with bad expectations, but decent outlook.  Costs in Q1 (and current Q2) to be high with reintroducing fleet back into service, staffing ships, transporting crew to said ships, etc.

 

Booking and occupancy levels will be a key indicator as they've held pricing in a market to fill instead of price to fill strategy.

Edited May 4, 2022 by Beezo