NCLH Stock Price

[oteixeira]

So no one really posting much but it seems to have found a bottom at 15.  I know I "lost" a lot of my profit by just holding, but it seems to be starting to turn back up now.  Never actually lost money since I was in just under $10 a share.  I am curious about folks who were playing short a couple of days ago.  It is now up about 5% yesterday, and over 10% this morning (I think it will settle to about 7% for the day today, imho)....did you dump your short sales, or are you holding and hoping for another reverse?  We all know this has nothing to do with the line, as you can see it turns on every Russian news story.

[RunBikeCruiseDC]

On 3/7/2022 at 7:31 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

Cruise lines aren’t taxed as a USA company. Can you please show me anything in writing that indicates consumers would be protected under the Fair Credit act in the case of cruise line solvency? I’m not trying to be difficult, but the way I read the language it isn’t apparent. As mentioned, I’m genuinely curious. 

Are you talking stocks or reservations?  Stocks are never "protected" - it's like gambling...  I would think reservations would be slightly protected if they go bankrupt or via conditions of credit card..

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

So no one really posting much but it seems to have found a bottom at 15.  I know I "lost" a lot of my profit by just holding, but it seems to be starting to turn back up now.  Never actually lost money since I was in just under $10 a share.  I am curious about folks who were playing short a couple of days ago.  It is now up about 5% yesterday, and over 10% this morning (I think it will settle to about 7% for the day today, imho)....did you dump your short sales, or are you holding and hoping for another reverse?  We all know this has nothing to do with the line, as you can see it turns on every Russian news story.

 

IMO- Dead cat bounce.Lots of money to be made for day traders. With the price of gas (and food) cruise lines are in a stranglehold. Inflation rates maybe the final straw. How many families are rushing back to cruising when a tank of gas is $7? The May earnings call will be telling. I’m short into single digits. 

[BermudaBound2014]

44 minutes ago, RunBikeCruiseDC said:

Are you talking stocks or reservations?  Stocks are never "protected" - it's like gambling...  I would think reservations would be slightly protected if they go bankrupt or via conditions of credit card..

A side conversation was discussing possible protection offered to consumers by the fair trade act in the event things go real sour fir NCl.

[Cruiseandgamble]

4 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

IMO- Dead cat bounce.Lots of money to be made for day traders. With the price of gas (and food) cruise lines are in a stranglehold. Inflation rates maybe the final straw. How many families are rushing back to cruising when a tank of gas is $7? The May earnings call will be telling. I’m short into single digits. 

 

I would kill for a tank of gas that only cost $7!

[complawyer]

i would kill if it were double that. ah! to recall the good old days of my teen years. growing up in detroit occasionally they had "gas wars" and i remember paying 19 cents per gallon. talk about the good old days, even as late as the early 70"s i was still paying 25 cents per gallon

 

inflation sucks!

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

IMO- Dead cat bounce.Lots of money to be made for day traders. With the price of gas (and food) cruise lines are in a stranglehold. Inflation rates maybe the final straw. How many families are rushing back to cruising when a tank of gas is $7? The May earnings call will be telling. I’m short into single digits. 

So then you are still holding your short calls you made when it went down to 15.50 two days ago?  That is what I am asking.  I did another swing and made a little bit, I am still not comfortable with calls and puts enough to go that route.  I don't see gas going too much higher.  I think inflation going up while the war ending making oil go down will offset.  I still contend the May call will still be reporting months heavily effected by Omicron (including January where they basically shut back down for 2 weeks) and as such is built into the stock today.  The next call in August is the one you have to look for, as they will have three months with (what I think will be) no real excuses for ships not running or being run at a loss.  Good luck to you!!  I was hoping you got out of those shorts before it shot up.

[BermudaBound2014]

9 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

So then you are still holding your short calls you made when it went down to 15.50 two days ago?  That is what I am asking.

 

I didn't buy shorts at $15. I said I was looking to buy shorts the previous week but didn't want to get too greedy. I'm holding the shorts I purchased last June around $30. I was long previously.

 

12 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

  I did another swing and made a little bit, I am still not comfortable with calls and puts enough to go that route.

 

Good for you! I haven't been playing last couple days. Just too volatile for me. Even though I'm short on all three cruise lines, I'm a pretty conservative investor. If @mscdivina2016 decides to cash in today he made a quick 10 Grand on Monday's longs! I love it when the little guys like us win.

 

15 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

  I don't see gas going too much higher.  I think inflation going up while the war ending making oil go down will offset. 

 

I wish I had your optimism. Someone has to pay for the free masks. Unfortunately, I believe Inflation is going to effect every American for several more years.

 

19 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

  I still contend the May call will still be reporting months heavily effected by Omicron (including January where they basically shut back down for 2 weeks) and as such is built into the stock today.  The next call in August is the one you have to look for, as they will have three months with (what I think will be) no real excuses for ships not running or being run at a loss.  Good luck to you!!  I was hoping you got out of those shorts before it shot up.

 

I agree that the August call will be more indicative of growth, but first we need to find out just how much NCL lost in Q1. Stocks will adjust to the Q1 report. 

 

It's strange that we are essentially betting against each other, but I do wish you a positive outcome. Hopefully I can dump my shorts for profit and you can hold those longs for a nice gain also!

 

 

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

It's strange that we are essentially betting against each other, but I do wish you a positive outcome. Hopefully I can dump my shorts for profit and you can hold those longs for a nice gain also!

 

I like to think I am betting for a stock, and you are betting against.  I don't feel like we are against one another at all, and we can both make money if we time our entry/exit points correctly.  Part of why I probe you in this thread is to understand what the other side of the coin is thinking, because all input is good to consider when you have a good chunk of money in a stock, right?

Edited March 9, 2022 by oteixeira

[mscdivina2016]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I didn't buy shorts at $15. I said I was looking to buy shorts the previous week but didn't want to get too greedy. I'm holding the shorts I purchased last June around $30. I was long previously.

 

 

Good for you! I haven't been playing last couple days. Just too volatile for me. Even though I'm short on all three cruise lines, I'm a pretty conservative investor. If @mscdivina2016 decides to cash in today he made a quick 10 Grand on Monday's longs! I love it when the little guys like us win.

 

 

I wish I had your optimism. Someone has to pay for the free masks. Unfortunately, I believe Inflation is going to effect every American for several more years.

 

 

I agree that the August call will be more indicative of growth, but first we need to find out just how much NCL lost in Q1. Stocks will adjust to the Q1 report. 

 

It's strange that we are essentially betting against each other, but I do wish you a positive outcome. Hopefully I can dump my shorts for profit and you can hold those longs for a nice gain also!

 

 

I have not sold it yet. Still watching it till close today.

Tempted though.

[bortman23]

On 3/9/2020 at 12:55 PM, Hrhbob said:

I was SO very proud of myself when i bought my NCL stock when it dove down to $33. As we speak it is at $21.52!  Well heck....

 

I got my first round of NCL stock at $8.99 in March 2020 🤣

[BermudaBound2014]

10 hours ago, oteixeira said:

I like to think I am betting for a stock, and you are betting against.  I don't feel like we are against one another at all, and we can both make money if we time our entry/exit points correctly.  Part of why I probe you in this thread is to understand what the other side of the coin is thinking, because all input is good to consider when you have a good chunk of money in a stock, right?

I agree. You say it more eloquently than I. :). 
 

It’s truly conflicting for me to be betting against an industry I love. The market has been so volatile this year that I hope we both can win- especially swing trading. I’m at a slight disadvantage here in Maui due to the time change, so I’m missing opening moves :(. 

[DrSea]

22 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

IMO- Dead cat bounce.Lots of money to be made for day traders. With the price of gas (and food) cruise lines are in a stranglehold. Inflation rates maybe the final straw. How many families are rushing back to cruising when a tank of gas is $7? The May earnings call will be telling. I’m short into single digits. 

Your interpretation is the only thing that makes sense to me. How can the stock price go up with gas prices and this conflict going on? People aren't going to cruise when they can't afford to drive or fly to the cruise port. 

[DrSea]

19 hours ago, oteixeira said:

I like to think I am betting for a stock, and you are betting against.  I don't feel like we are against one another at all, and we can both make money if we time our entry/exit points correctly.  Part of why I probe you in this thread is to understand what the other side of the coin is thinking, because all input is good to consider when you have a good chunk of money in a stock, right?

I agree that it's helpful to read what the other side is thinking. 

[JamieLogical]

4 minutes ago, DrSea said:

Your interpretation is the only thing that makes sense to me. How can the stock price go up with gas prices and this conflict going on? People aren't going to cruise when they can't afford to drive or fly to the cruise port. 

 

Not sure what the full impact will be on airline fares, but I can't imagine that paying an extra $10 for a tank of gas will stop me from driving to the cruise port to board a cruise that I payed thousands of dollars for....

[Sailing12Away]

24 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Not sure what the full impact will be on airline fares, but I can't imagine that paying an extra $10 for a tank of gas will stop me from driving to the cruise port to board a cruise that I payed thousands of dollars for....

It's not the $10 for the tank of gas to get you to the port... it's the now $400 you're spending each month instead of $150 for your normal day-to-day life activities. That adds up and eats into folks vacation funds.

 

Unless you're like me and drive an electric car... we're just sitting back and smiling and driving wherever we want without care.

[mscdivina2016]

30 minutes ago, DrSea said:

 People aren't going to cruise when they can't afford to drive or fly to the cruise port. 

Then they shouldn't be taking a cruise then.

 

[mscdivina2016]

2 minutes ago, Sailing12Away said:

 

Unless you're like me and drive an electric car... we're just sitting back and smiling and driving wherever we want without care.

😊.

I drive a Viper. 8 miles per gallon and only premium fuel.

[JamieLogical]

5 minutes ago, Sailing12Away said:

It's not the $10 for the tank of gas to get you to the port... it's the now $400 you're spending each month instead of $150 for your normal day-to-day life activities. That adds up and eats into folks vacation funds.

 

Unless you're like me and drive an electric car... we're just sitting back and smiling and driving wherever we want without care.

 

Um.. the post I responded to specifically said "People aren't going to cruise when they can't afford to drive or fly to the cruise port." It doesn't say anything about increased costs of day-to-day driving or general inflation caused by increased fuel prices.

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by JamieLogical

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Um.. the post I responded to specifically said "People aren't going to cruise when they can't afford to drive or fly to the cruise port." It doesn't say anything about increased costs of day-to-day driving or general inflation caused by increased fuel prices.

 

The increase $10 per tank is just the tip of the iceberg. You know that. 

 

The USA core inflation rate does NOT include the food and energy sectors. More media manipulation. I suspect the inflation rate most families feel is well into double digits. 

 

 

 

Edited March 10, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, mscdivina2016 said:

😊.

I drive a Viper. 8 miles per gallon and only premium fuel.

 If it’s not a red gen-1 RT10 that incinerates your calf it’s not a real viper :). 

Edited March 10, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[JamieLogical]

2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The increase $10 per tank is just the tip of the iceberg. You know that. 

 

The USA core inflation rate does NOT include the food and energy sectors. More media manipulation. I suspect the inflation rate most families feel is well into double digits. 

 

 

 

 

Jeez, guys. I was trying to make a joke because the poster I quoted specifically mentioned increased cost of transportation TO THE PIER, which is likely trivial (especially if driving), compared to the cost of the cruise itself. My point was, no one was going to stop cruising just because the drive to the pier costs them an extra $10. We can move on from this now. It has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, JamieLogical said:

 

Jeez, guys. I was trying to make a joke because the poster I quoted specifically mentioned increased cost of transportation TO THE PIER, which is likely trivial (especially if driving), compared to the cost of the cruise itself. My point was, no one was going to stop cruising just because the drive to the pier costs them an extra $10. We can move on from this now. It has nothing to do with the topic at hand.

I read your comment as if it was aligned with the media ads brushing off current inflation rates, as if the price of fuel won’t effect Johnny Public.  My apologies for missing the joke. 
 

The conversation about core inflation and current gas prices is directly linked to the topic of NCL stock. Directly. 

[DrSea]

7 hours ago, mscdivina2016 said:

Then they shouldn't be taking a cruise then.

 

Agreed. But I think we have different perspectives on the proportion of Americans who are in this group. There are many Americans who live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford a $500 emergency. How are these Americans going to afford to cruise when the economy does worst due to the conflict. Think of the average American and not our own situation where we have enough disposable income to buy stocks. 

[JamieLogical]

51 minutes ago, DrSea said:

Agreed. But I think we have different perspectives on the proportion of Americans who are in this group. There are many Americans who live paycheck to paycheck and cannot afford a $500 emergency. How are these Americans going to afford to cruise when the economy does worst due to the conflict. Think of the average American and not our own situation where we have enough disposable income to buy stocks. 

 

I don't think the "average American" who is living paycheck to paycheck is taking a cruise, even before COVID and recent inflation....