NCLH Stock Price

[oteixeira]

5 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

I don't think the "average American" who is living paycheck to paycheck is taking a cruise, even before COVID and recent inflation....

I can't agree with this enough....maybe eleventy-billion percent?  Folks who are worried about their next meal/tank full are not usually taking week long cruises, right?  If they are, I am not sure how, it is a significant cost compared to just trying to make sure you family is safe, warm, and fed.  I am not picking on folks like that, it is a hard way to live, and I did it when I was much younger, I just don't remember having money to do much of anything.  I mean, Applebees was a splurge to me back in those days.

[cocoabeachcruisin1]

This afternoon news (Orlando) had the Port Canaveral's big cheese "Captain" on. He had several good keys issues about the last 2 years. Expected the port to be back on-track within (hesitated) 4-5 months. Good!

[BermudaBound2014]

The average American living paycheck to paycheck may not be taking a cruise but the Average America most certainly Is.

 

Average America family income is about $88,000

Average income if cruisers is approximately $90,000

 

The Average American family makes up the largest portion of NCL business. The current (obscene) Inflation rate will hit these average Americans hard, thus delivering yet another blow to the cruise industry. 
 

• The average U.S. household income is $87,864.

https://www.zippia.com/advice/average-american-income/

 

 

[njhorseman]

16 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The average American living paycheck to paycheck may not be taking a cruise but the Average America most certainly Is.

 

Average America family income is about $88,000

Average income if cruisers is approximately $90,000

 

The Average American family makes up the largest portion of NCL business. The current (obscene) Inflation rate will hit these average Americans hard, thus delivering yet another blow to the cruise industry. 
 

• The average U.S. household income is $87,864.

https://www.zippia.com/advice/average-american-income/

 

 

Average is a very bad measure. It's greatly distorted by the very wealthy. Median income is a better standard. In 2020 the median household income per the United States Census Bureau was $67,521. BTW, your source "Zippia" whoever the heck they are appears to have the median household income wrong, stating it as $61,937, much lower than the official Census Bureau number.

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Average is a very bad measure. It's greatly distorted by the very wealthy. Median income is a better standard. In 2020 the median household income per the United States Census Bureau was $67,521. BTW, your source "Zippia" whoever the heck they are appears to have the median household income wrong, stating it as $61,937, much lower than the official Census Bureau number.

I didn’t quote the census bureau because 2020 data is useless given most of the country was sitting at home. I do wish the census bureau would publish more recent data.

 

Are you suggesting that the “average American” doesn’t make up the majority of nCL passengers because their median income is less than 90k?? You must realize that the average salary of those cruising is also distorted by the extremely wealthy. Therefore, it is possible the median income of those cruising is far less than 90k. 
 

I stand firm. Cruising is no longer for the wealthy. The “average American” makes up a very large percentage of ncl cruisers. The average American is going to see their disposable income greatly reduced with current inflation rates. This will effect the Cruise Industry. . 

 

 

[njhorseman]

25 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I didn’t quote the census bureau because 2020 data is useless given most of the country was sitting at home. I do wish the census bureau would publish more recent data.

 

Are you suggesting that the “average American” doesn’t make up the majority of nCL passengers because their median income is less than 90k?? You must realize that the average salary of those cruising is also distorted by the extremely wealthy. Therefore, it is possible the median income of those cruising is far less than 90k. 
 

I stand firm. Cruising is no longer for the wealthy. The “average American” makes up a very large percentage of ncl cruisers. The average American is going to see their disposable income greatly reduced with current inflation rates. This will effect the Cruise Industry. . 

 

 

I have no argument with saying the description "average American" typifies the majority of NCL cruisers, although to me that description encompasses more than income level.

 

In any event that has nothing to do with my point, which was simply to point out that median household income is a better measure than average income...that and questioning your source of data. 

 

By the way, wouldn't "most of the country sitting at home" tend to depress median household income, which would mean that the Census Bureau's data should result in an artificially lower than expected median household income? How is it then that the Census Bureau's 2020 median household income is almost $6,000 higher than the "Zippia" 2022 median ?  

 

Many years ago my motto at work was "Bad data is my business, my only business". 😉

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

5 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

I have no argument with saying the description "average American" typifies the majority of NCL cruisers, although to me that description encompasses more than income level.

 

In any event that has nothing to do with my point, which was simply to point out that median household income is a better measure than average income...that and questioning your source of data. 

 

By the way, wouldn't "most of the country sitting at home" tend to depress median household income, which would mean that the Census Bureau's data should result in an artificially lower than expected median household income? How is it then that the Census Bureau's 2020 median household income is almost $6,000 higher than the "Zippia" 2022 median ?  

 

Many years ago my motto at work was "Bad data is my business, my only business". 😉

 

 

 

Fair enough. I can be more careful. Zippia was easy to cp. When the census bureau updates I will revise. 
 

I’m glad we agree that the term “average American” typifies NCL customer base. Cruising is no longer for the wealthy. 

[DrSea]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I didn’t quote the census bureau because 2020 data is useless given most of the country was sitting at home. I do wish the census bureau would publish more recent data.

 

Are you suggesting that the “average American” doesn’t make up the majority of nCL passengers because their median income is less than 90k?? You must realize that the average salary of those cruising is also distorted by the extremely wealthy. Therefore, it is possible the median income of those cruising is far less than 90k. 
 

I stand firm. Cruising is no longer for the wealthy. The “average American” makes up a very large percentage of ncl cruisers. The average American is going to see their disposable income greatly reduced with current inflation rates. This will effect the Cruise Industry. . 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I have no argument with saying the description "average American" typifies the majority of NCL cruisers, although to me that description encompasses more than income level.

 

In any event that has nothing to do with my point, which was simply to point out that median household income is a better measure than average income...that and questioning your source of data. 

 

By the way, wouldn't "most of the country sitting at home" tend to depress median household income, which would mean that the Census Bureau's data should result in an artificially lower than expected median household income? How is it then that the Census Bureau's 2020 median household income is almost $6,000 higher than the "Zippia" 2022 median ?  

 

Many years ago my motto at work was "Bad data is my business, my only business". 😉

 

 

 

The median income in 2019 was $69,560 per the census. 

 

Link: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html#:~:text=Median household income was %2467%2C521,median household income since 2011.

 

Quote:

 

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020, a decrease of 2.9 percent from the 2019 median of $69,560 (Figure 1 and Table A-1). This is the first statistically significant decline in median household income since 2011.

 

Median is a better measure when there is skewedness in the data. There are high earners and they pull up the mean more than the median. 

 

A safe assumption is that the average NCL customer is decidedly middle class.  I also agree that a subgroup analysis, those who sail with NCL, may have a higher mean/median income compared to the average American. Only NCL has that data, but I think it is safe to make that assumption. 

[DrSea]

16 hours ago, JamieLogical said:

 

I don't think the "average American" who is living paycheck to paycheck is taking a cruise, even before COVID and recent inflation....

 

  

15 hours ago, oteixeira said:

I can't agree with this enough....maybe eleventy-billion percent?  Folks who are worried about their next meal/tank full are not usually taking week long cruises, right?  If they are, I am not sure how, it is a significant cost compared to just trying to make sure you family is safe, warm, and fed.  I am not picking on folks like that, it is a hard way to live, and I did it when I was much younger, I just don't remember having money to do much of anything.  I mean, Applebees was a splurge to me back in those days.

 

I am not sure about that. They may be on other price conscious cruise lines. 

 

What I am trying to say is that the average American may continue to experience more financially pressure. Objectively, the median income has declined for the first time since 2011 (one that was statistically significant). My belief is that as conflict continues to ensure and gas continues to climb higher, more Americans will see more of their disposable income decline, and the proportion of potential NCL customers who afford to go on vacation will decline. In turn, this will lead to fewer people who will be able to sail with NCL. 

 

This is all speculation from a epidemiologists who knows a lil about stats but nothing about economics. 

[njhorseman]

36 minutes ago, DrSea said:

 

Median is a better measure when there is skewedness in the data. There are high earners and they pull up the mean more than the median. 

There's a great example of that in salaries of major league baseball players. (The data are readily available in the news media because the lockout that threatened the 2022 season was just ended yesterday when a new collective bargaining agreement was announced.)

Last year the average salary of a major league baseball player was $4.17 million, while the median was $1.15 million .

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by njhorseman

[DrSea]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

There's a great example of that in salaries of major league baseball players. (The data are readily available in the news media because the lockout that threatened the 2022 season was just ended yesterday when a new collective bargaining agreement was announced.)

Last year the average salary of a major league baseball player was $4.17 million, while the median was $1.15 million .

 

Exactly. Kudos to them making millions. I am not. haha

[oteixeira]

Hi all!  Just checking in to see how our crew is doing.  I am wondering if shorts got out with a nice profit (if you got the short at around 30) yet or if you are expecting another drop?  If so why?  I am happy to see things slowly creeping back up, I was never in the red but feel dumb to have not sold at 32 last year and then just bought back in.

I also have some invested in the JETS etf, it has been doing well since a sharp drop at the start of the Russian war (which is when I jumped in).

What are you in on?  Anything good out there?

Edited March 18, 2022 by oteixeira

[WindinmySails]

For us, we compared a land vacation vs. a cruise and we certainly got the most bang for the buck with a cruise.  With families, when there are offers for kids to stay in the same room for free, it is a bargain to be sure.  

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

Hi all!  Just checking in to see how our crew is doing.  I am wondering if shorts got out with a nice profit (if you got the short at around 30) yet or if you are expecting another drop?  If so why?  I am happy to see things slowly creeping back up, I was never in the red but feel dumb to have not sold at 32 last year and then just bought back in.

I also have some invested in the JETS etf, it has been doing well since a sharp drop at the start of the Russian war (which is when I jumped in).

What are you in on?  Anything good out there?

 

Aloha, I'm holding all my cruise line cruise shorts until after they each give Q1 reports. For NCL that is the beginning of May. I still think RCL is poised best to withstand the storm, but this thing is far from over. I do hope the mscguy is watching. He made a nice 20K profit in a single week. It took me nearly a year to make that the first time I cashed in on cruise stock but I'm not buying 10,000 shares at a time :).

 

I hold some JETS too, just to smooth things out in my travel sector, but I hold more Delta and Southwest direct. I've swing traded those a bit also. I think the airlines will come back long before the cruise industry. The cruise industry is strapped down with enormous debt. Some are predicting NCL may need to raise cash this quarter. I did notice one analysist moved NCL to an "under-preform" rating today, but I don't trust that much either.

 

 If 2022 trading has shown anything, it's that the market is being manipulated. Swing trading takes nerves of steel. Plus, I'm now 6 hours behind the opening bell and I'm not getting up at 3 a.m. to day trade. I do have limits lol 🙂

[BermudaBound2014]

CCL releases quarterly tomorrow. Expectations are low. Big question is, will they come in even lower than predicted? All three major cruise lines are trading in rhythm, so tomorrow should provide some insight for NCL.

[oteixeira]

35 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

CCL releases quarterly tomorrow. Expectations are low. Big question is, will they come in even lower than predicted? All three major cruise lines are trading in rhythm, so tomorrow should provide some insight for NCL.

One thing that always seems to ring true, what one line does, the other two follow in terms of stock performance.  Hoping to hear OK numbers but bracing for what we all expect, empty ships due to Omicron.  

[mscdivina2016]

On 3/18/2022 at 3:55 PM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Aloha, I'm holding all my cruise line cruise shorts until after they each give Q1 reports. For NCL that is the beginning of May. I still think RCL is poised best to withstand the storm, but this thing is far from over. I do hope the mscguy is watching. He made a nice 20K profit in a single week. It took me nearly a year to make that the first time I cashed in on cruise stock but I'm not buying 10,000 shares at a time :).

 

I hold some JETS too, just to smooth things out in my travel sector, but I hold more Delta and Southwest direct. I've swing traded those a bit also. I think the airlines will come back long before the cruise industry. The cruise industry is strapped down with enormous debt. Some are predicting NCL may need to raise cash this quarter. I did notice one analysist moved NCL to an "under-preform" rating today, but I don't trust that much either.

 

 If 2022 trading has shown anything, it's that the market is being manipulated. Swing trading takes nerves of steel. Plus, I'm now 6 hours behind the opening bell and I'm not getting up at 3 a.m. to day trade. I do have limits lol 🙂

I am watching very closely. Might be an opportunity to sell and rebuy the dip.

I also have RCL and CUK  (carnival cruise lines UK ticker on NYSE)

 

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, mscdivina2016 said:

I am watching very closely. Might be an opportunity to sell and rebuy the dip.

I also have RCL and CUK  (carnival cruise lines UK ticker on NYSE)

 

curious- why do you have cuk and not ccl?
 

I added more shorts of all three today. A small amount compared to your numbers lol. I have been buying shorts before quarterly releases for the last 3 cycles and it’s been profitable- I won’t hold these long. 

[mscdivina2016]

35 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

curious- why do you have cuk and not ccl?
 

I added more shorts of all three today. A small amount compared to your numbers lol. I have been buying shorts before quarterly releases for the last 3 cycles and it’s been profitable- I won’t hold these long. 

I keep getting warned about day trading.

So I have two accounts. If I am day trading I will use both accounts. Sell in one and buy in the other.

I luck out as CCL and CUK are basically the same so I can use one account.

[oteixeira]

CCL Results....

Horrible miss - CHECK

good outlook with good bookings - CHECK

 

Market reaction, pretty much flat to up a tick.  Could not have asked for a better reaction as a long.  NCL is up over a point so far, so I can't get mad at that.  Seems that the bad quarter from Omicron was already baked in by the traders who beat these stocks down so bad between Omicron and the start of the war.

[jskinsd]

I wish all the stock market geniuses a positive portfolio.  But alas, we all will never know.  So basically, this thread is just nonsense. ✌️

[MoCruiseFan]

On 3/9/2020 at 12:55 PM, Hrhbob said:

I was SO very proud of myself when i bought my NCL stock when it dove down to $33. As we speak it is at $21.52!  Well heck....

 

The ONLY prices that matter in stock is the price you pay and the price you sell.  Anything that happens between those two points is not even worth looking at as it is 100% irrelevant.  You do not amke or lose anything until you sell.

[MoCruiseFan]

21 hours ago, mscdivina2016 said:

I keep getting warned about day trading.

So I have two accounts. If I am day trading I will use both accounts. Sell in one and buy in the other.

I luck out as CCL and CUK are basically the same so I can use one account.

Am I the only one who sees the obvious flaw in this scheme that makes it 100% impossible?

[BermudaBound2014]

44 minutes ago, jskinsd said:

I wish all the stock market geniuses a positive portfolio.  But alas, we all will never know.  So basically, this thread is just nonsense. ✌️

 

I don't believe anyone here has claimed to be a market genius. I also don't believe that anyone here is making cash decisions based on a cruise forum discussion. As nonsense as this thread maybe, I do enjoy discussing the financial future of cruising, on a cruise forum, under a topic titled "NCL Stock", but I'm a girl, and we like chatter ;-).

 

15 minutes ago, MoCruiseFan said:

 

The ONLY prices that matter in stock is the price you pay and the price you sell.  Anything that happens between those two points is not even worth looking at as it is 100% irrelevant.  You do not amke or lose anything until you sell.

 

I disagree. Time spent researching and monitoring investments is very much relevant to me. I also enjoy discussing stocks with just about anyone and especially Oteix 🙂

 

2 hours ago, oteixeira said:

CCL Results....

Horrible miss - CHECK

good outlook with good bookings - CHECK

 

Market reaction, pretty much flat to up a tick.  Could not have asked for a better reaction as a long.  NCL is up over a point so far, so I can't get mad at that.  Seems that the bad quarter from Omicron was already baked in by the traders who beat these stocks down so bad between Omicron and the start of the war.

 

I believe CCL ended up down for the day, but I agree, the lines were pretty much flat. Let's see what this week brings. 

 

As far as CCL having a good outlook with good bookings, this is the same company that published they would be profitable March 2022 and now they have pushed back profits into 2023. I don't believe future booking numbers either, but time will tell. I haven't had time to really dig into the report (I'm 6 hours behind you and had errands to run this morning), but with a cursory glance, I see nothing to raise my confidence just yet. 

 

Are you long in only NCL or all 3? 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[jskinsd]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't believe anyone here has claimed to be a market genius. I also don't believe that anyone here is making cash decisions based on a cruise forum discussion. As nonsense as this thread maybe, I do enjoy discussing the financial future of cruising, on a cruise forum, under a topic titled "NCL Stock", but I'm a girl, and we like chatter ;-).

 

 

I disagree. Time spent researching and monitoring investments is very much relevant to me. I also enjoy discussing stocks with just about anyone and especially Oteix 🙂

 

 

 

 

 

And I always use CC for all my financial cruise advice.   Let's face it.  Most people buy 100 shares of cruise stocks do so for the $100 stockholder OBC.  I have received over $3500 from the program in the past 8 years with NCL.  Although my investment may be down currently from when I purchased it, I still think I have done OK.  And to parlay that with the purchase of cruise next certificates on those cruises I think I have received over $5000 of free money to purchase a NCL cruise.  But no more.  OBC is no longer applied to the purchase of cruise next.  Oh well. ✌️