NCLH Stock Price

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't believe anyone here has claimed to be a market genius. I also don't believe that anyone here is making cash decisions based on a cruise forum discussion. As nonsense as this thread maybe, I do enjoy discussing the financial future of cruising, on a cruise forum, under a topic titled "NCL Stock", but I'm a girl, and we like chatter ;-).

 

 

I disagree. Time spent researching and monitoring investments is very much relevant to me. I also enjoy discussing stocks with just about anyone and especially Oteix 🙂

 

 

I believe CCL ended up down for the day, but I agree, the lines were pretty much flat. Let's see what this week brings. 

 

As far as CCL having a good outlook with good bookings, this is the same company that published they would be profitable March 2022 and now they have pushed back profits into 2023. I don't believe future booking numbers either, but time will tell. I haven't had time to really dig into the report (I'm 6 hours behind you and had errands to run this morning), but with a cursory glance, I see nothing to raise my confidence just yet. 

 

Are you long in only NCL or all 3? 

 

 

I enjoy our conversations as well.  Like I have said in the past, sometimes the best information you can collect is information from people who have the exact opposite opinion that you do.  Maybe we can tell politicians that?  LOL

As for what CCL is selling (in terms of future bookings) it is the same old song and dance there.  Bookings up big, blah blah blah, full fleet in service by end of summer, blah blah.  The big thing here is they keep the stock up now, but if they were to miss again and again, this all becomes a clear lie, and then the stock will take a huge hit (due to lack of trust in the financial leaders at the company).

Good summary here if you don't have time for all the head honcho spin:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-ccl-q1-earnings-revenues-155403008.html

Here is the funny thing, I have zero holdings in CCL.  Mainly because I don't really care for their offerings, and I can't invest in things I don't use (or at least that is how I normally try to invest).  I do in fact have holdings in RCCL, and while I have not been on their line yet I am for sure going to try Celebrity as it seems very comparable to the Haven experience I love on NCL.  Of course I think you know I have a good amount of NCLH stock as well, most of it purchased at the under 10 dollar price point.  I have a few other small investments, I think we discussed JETS.  I have said in the past this is my "play" money, my real (read: retirement) money is with a professional financial advisor.

So, for those of you who say we use a forum for investment advice, let me give you mine:

I am an idiot.  Do what I do at your own risk.  Don't take my advice unless you are really, really desperate.  None of this is meant to be educational, the main people in the topic are doing it (the thread) for fun and to chat with like minded folks.
 

[mscdivina2016]

2 hours ago, MoCruiseFan said:

Am I the only one who sees the obvious flaw in this scheme that makes it 100% impossible?

TD Ameritrade has it's rules.

That call it pattern trading and it's easier to go around it then deal with the 5 day BS. That's because my main account fluctuates with limit sell orders and they have their math that affects a $25,000 minimum available balance. Messed up if you ask me.

 

I trade in both my main account and my IRA account. The boat load is in my IRA and I don't need to worry about that account.

It happens very infrequently but again it's easier to go around it.

Thus CUK and CCL are perfect for main account.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Looks like Carnival took the biggest hit today. All three lines continue to trend down. I set CCL to buy my temp shorts at 18.11 for a nice little swing trade but it hasn't yet. After hours is also trending down, so I do expect that to fill soon.

 

 This is old news, but is worth repeating. My observations align with Truist regarding demand. Without demand cruise lines are dead in the water especially considering current inflation.

 

Recall that in December, Carnival told investors it thought huge pent-up demand for cruising would boost revenue and allow the company to raise prices in the first quarter. But last week, Truist Financial cited "conversations with senior executives at very large travel agencies," that suggested the opposite: Despite waning COVID-19 restrictions and infections, demand for cruises in the first half of 2022 looks weak, and this weakness could extend into the rest of this year.

 

PS: You will love celebrity. I believe it is a superior product compared to NCL. I also believe RCL is the strongest financially.

[At Sea At Peace]

16 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Looks like Carnival took the biggest hit today.

 

But last week, Truist Financial cited "conversations with senior executives at very large travel agencies," that suggested the opposite: Despite waning COVID-19 restrictions and infections, demand for cruises in the first half of 2022 looks weak, and this weakness could extend into the rest of this year.

 

 

CCL prognostications haven't really been on target.  Spin after spin.  Now 24 ships are to be in dry dock (i.e., inferred as only a return to service) and 'bookings, bookings, bookings' is the mantra.  So, are these 24 additional ships in the 'bookings' stream?

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27067-carnival-corp-to-drydock-24-ships-in-next-3-months.html

 

IMO, these cruise lines have the next 4-months of potential returns to service levels.  I say potential as it just doesn't appear to materializing and they keep pushing out the 'good booking news' to further and further into the great time abyss.  Then there is BA.2, eastern Europe, fuel, ugh.

 

And there are too many ships, more on the way, all in the pipelines pre-pandemic.  Supply and demand, regardless of underlying causations. 

 

None of the big 3 have the financial resources to survive lack of demand through the rest of the year on top of the above noted other obstacles.  CCL could be the Washington Mutual of the cruise industry this go round.  😟

 

 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[BermudaBound2014]

12 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

CCL prognostications haven't really been on target.  Spin after spin.  Now 24 ships are to be in dry dock (i.e., inferred as only a return to service) and 'bookings, bookings, bookings' is the mantra.  So, are these 24 additional ships in the 'bookings' stream?

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/27067-carnival-corp-to-drydock-24-ships-in-next-3-months.html

 

IMO, these cruise lines have the next 4-months of potential returns to service levels.  I say potential as it just doesn't appear to materializing and they keep pushing out the 'good booking news' to further and further into the great time abyss.  Then there is BA.2, eastern Europe, fuel, ugh.

 

None of the big 3 have the financial resources to survive lack of demand through the rest of the year on top of the above noted other obstacles.  CCL could be the Washington Mutual of the cruise industry this go round.  😟

 

 

 

 

 

You are preaching to the choir. I have called BS on 'pent up demand' for months.

 

I read an article last night about MSC financials. When they first grounded cruise ships you may remember me tossing out the idea of NCL and MSC merger/buy out. Well, I'm not so sure I wasn't off base. It seems MSC has been entirely  bailed out by Mom and Dad shipping company. Container shipping prices are up 300%. So while the cruise industry is drowning, MSC haS been making huge bank on their shipping empire. Did you know that MSC is now the third largest cruise line? CCL, RCL, MSC, and NCL? 

 

I see NCL as the weakest link. I do wonder if CCL is too big to fail, or perhaps they are just too big to survive. Saudis' already have large financial interest in both RCL and CCL and the money to withstand. Like I keep telling my friend Ox...IMO, the sh*t show hasn't even started.

 

On a separate note, lots of job title changes for Del Rio. First there was the enviromental officer position and now... https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/oceania-cruises-appoints-frank-del-rio-jr-as-chief-sales--marketing-officer-301507951.html

 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[At Sea At Peace]

Behind a paywall for those who can access.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-lines-wont-catch-a-wave-11648722600?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

 

CRUISE LINES WON'T CATCH A WAVE

Optimism in the cruise industry right now requires a life jacket

 

An interesting article citing a couple of established industry analysts. 

 

What I gathered from them was the 'general cruise industry' sentiment that the Omicron wave onset in December and January put a hard knock on the then upcoming wave season that the industry so desperately needed to rebound.  Post February the demand seems to have regenerated, but that rebound potential has proven to be too little too late.  The cited analysts polls that 40% of avid cruisers indicate Omicron was the preclusion factor for booking.

 

At the same time as some are concerned about the virus, others are equally concerned about the vaccination and masking requirements (primarily mass market cruisers).

 

Add to that geopolitical events, the cost to turn over returned crew via air at elevated costs, supply chain issues for food and beverages and consumables, and most certainly 'fuel' beyond the small hedged positions of the lines, especially CCL.

 

Yet, with demand so low, none of the cruise lines have dared to enact fuel surcharges and have actually been 'fare discounting' to get passenger counts up.  Sailings are currently at 50% of pre-pandemic levels across the lines.

 

However, for Norwegian Cruise Line (a higher-end cruise operator), which they identify with premium priced cruise lines, sailings are up 20%-25% versus comparable 2019 levels.

 

I hadn't seen such disparity anywhere else in such reporting.

 

[oteixeira]

8 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

Behind a paywall for those who can access.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cruise-lines-wont-catch-a-wave-11648722600?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos1

 

CRUISE LINES WON'T CATCH A WAVE

Optimism in the cruise industry right now requires a life jacket

 

An interesting article citing a couple of established industry analysts. 

 

What I gathered from them was the 'general cruise industry' sentiment that the Omicron wave onset in December and January put a hard knock on the then upcoming wave season that the industry so desperately needed to rebound.  Post February the demand seems to have regenerated, but that rebound potential has proven to be too little too late.  The cited analysts polls that 40% of avid cruisers indicate Omicron was the preclusion factor for booking.

 

At the same time as some are concerned about the virus, others are equally concerned about the vaccination and masking requirements (primarily mass market cruisers).

 

Add to that geopolitical events, the cost to turn over returned crew via air at elevated costs, supply chain issues for food and beverages and consumables, and most certainly 'fuel' beyond the small hedged positions of the lines, especially CCL.

 

Yet, with demand so low, none of the cruise lines have dared to enact fuel surcharges and have actually been 'fare discounting' to get passenger counts up.  Sailings are currently at 50% of pre-pandemic levels across the lines.

 

However, for Norwegian Cruise Line (a higher-end cruise operator), which they identify with premium priced cruise lines, sailings are up 20%-25% versus comparable 2019 levels.

 

I hadn't seen such disparity anywhere else in such reporting.

 

So Arnold Donald said there are at least 40 cruises in the next few months over 100% booked already, and I have seen reports on 2 such cruises (people reporting that first night numbers are above double occupancy numbers), this is what cruising is hoping to get back to. 

I am optimistic that seeing cruises already getting to that number before shutting down testing mandates is a good thing.  Once testing mandates are dropped I think Joe Six-pack is back onboard.  They already dropped the mask mandates across most lines and the CDC has allowed full cruises to go as well as dropping the level for cruising risk to level 0.  Let's see what the next few months hold, but I was long, and continue to be long.  I am up over 100% on my NCL position from when covid started, and more then that on my RCL position (got in at just under 30 dollars).

Good luck everyone, if you were shorting from 30 I would suggest you might want to sell that position before you lose all your profit.  It might still be a roller coaster but I think we are headed back up to near 30 short term, followed by another dip.

[complawyer]

bought at $7.00 right after covid caused the cruising shutdown.  i might never sell!

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, oteixeira said:

So Arnold Donald said there are at least 40 cruises in the next few months over 100% booked already, and I have seen reports on 2 such cruises (people reporting that first night numbers are above double occupancy numbers), this is what cruising is hoping to get back to. 

I am optimistic that seeing cruises already getting to that number before shutting down testing mandates is a good thing.  Once testing mandates are dropped I think Joe Six-pack is back onboard.  They already dropped the mask mandates across most lines and the CDC has allowed full cruises to go as well as dropping the level for cruising risk to level 0.  Let's see what the next few months hold, but I was long, and continue to be long.  I am up over 100% on my NCL position from when covid started, and more then that on my RCL position (got in at just under 30 dollars).

Good luck everyone, if you were shorting from 30 I would suggest you might want to sell that position before you lose all your profit.  It might still be a roller coaster but I think we are headed back up to near 30 short term, followed by another dip.

 

I’m not buying what Arnold is selling. First, today was the last day for those with carnival FCC to book a cruise without the FCc expiring. Just that alone will skew bookings as has a very short 3 week spring break season. Let’s see what May brings. Second, NCL sent a mass email to Oceania customers yesterday with incentives thru November 22 due to low booking numbers and there are last minute specials galore to be had. I also believe ncl eliminated the solo supplement on several spring sailings which all points to undersold cabins. Third, cruise line debt is so enormous they need way more than 40 sailings at 100% to turn the interest tide.

 

 I’m up a solid five figures swing trading this stuff so I can afford to hold my shorts for quite awhile. I will not turn my ncl shorts until the next quarterly release is made public. I do believe  rcl is the strongest player in the game right now. Although all travel sector had a nice day today,  I still think this is a sh*t storm in the making. 

[oteixeira]

11 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I’m not buying what Arnold is selling. First, today was the last day for those with carnival FCC to book a cruise without the FCc expiring. Just that alone will skew bookings as has a very short 3 week spring break season. Let’s see what May brings. Second, NCL sent a mass email to Oceania customers yesterday with incentives thru November 22 due to low booking numbers and there are last minute specials galore to be had. I also believe ncl eliminated the solo supplement on several spring sailings which all points to undersold cabins. Third, cruise line debt is so enormous they need way more than 40 sailings at 100% to turn the interest tide.

 

 I’m up a solid five figures swing trading this stuff so I can afford to hold my shorts for quite awhile. I will not turn my ncl shorts until the next quarterly release is made public. I do believe  rcl is the strongest player in the game right now. Although all travel sector had a nice day today,  I still think this is a sh*t storm in the making. 

I meant to tell you I opened a small position in CCL when it was not following the normal cruise line trend (it was going down on days where the other two went up multiple days).  Looking for a quick swing on that one as well.

[At Sea At Peace]

15 hours ago, oteixeira said:

So Arnold Donald said there are at least 40 cruises in the next few months over 100% booked already, and I have seen reports on 2 such cruises (people reporting that first night numbers are above double occupancy numbers), this is what cruising is hoping to get back to. 
 

 

Corporate CEO's are like Politicians and it is important to read all of the 'words' and develop some context.

 

YES the CCL CEO did, "Arnold Donald said there are at least 40 cruises in the next few months over 100% booked already."

 

Earnings Call Transcript Release

 

"However, we did maintain price as we said we would, and we fully expect an extended wave season. In fact, we're already achieving occupancies in the month of March that are nearing 70% with more than 40 sailings exceeding 100% occupancy, a testament to the underlying demand for crews and closer in nature of booking patterns."

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4497095-carnival-corporation-and-plcs-ccl-ceo-arnold-donald-on-q1-2022-results-earnings-call

 

In that same transcript ~

 

But I would say -- overall, things are really looking good. I mean we're -- 75% of the ships are now sailing.

 

However, as I've already said, adjusted EBITDA over the first half of 2022 has been or will be impacted by the restart-related spending and dry dock expenses as 39 ships, over 40% of our fleet, will have been in dry dock during the first half of fiscal 2022. 

 

So, if 75% of the fleet ships are now sailing, 39 ships represent 40% of the fleet, then 98 ships are in the fleet.  With 39 ships to be in dry dock, out of 74 ships (75% of 98) that leaves 35 ships actively booking sailings in the next 2-3 months referenced.

 

Averaging a week long cruise for the sake of discussion 35 ships over the 2-3 months yields 350 potential cruises.

 

NOW, 40 sailings at 100%+ was lauded as great news.

 

PARSED, it is 12% of their cruises in the 10 weeks.

 

😏

Edited April 1, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[oteixeira]

1 hour ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

 

PARSED, it is 12% of their cruises in the 10 weeks.

 

😏

Which is 12% more then we had the previous period since the CDC did not allow full capacity.  I will take it as a win, and an upward trend.  It is not that I am not reading all of the words, it is that the words can be interpreted in the way you see it, and also the way I see it.

As to the dry dock, I read it as "Will have been" meaning they were in and out, to get updated documents (they need these every 5 years, if they passed 5 years during the lock down, instant dry dock) or getting new paint jobs for some Carnival ships as well.  Not that they are broken down with major work needed.

Again, not saying you are wrong, just saying their are many ways to read the document and come away with what you want it to say.

[davencl]

16 hours ago, complawyer said:

bought at $7.00 right after covid caused the cruising shutdown.  i might never sell!

That's what I did and now get a 10 to 20 percent return on my investment every year due to the OBC I get as a shareholder.

[At Sea At Peace]

5 hours ago, oteixeira said:

Which is 12% more then we had the previous period since the CDC did not allow full capacity.  I will take it as a win, and an upward trend.  It is not that I am not reading all of the words, it is that the words can be interpreted in the way you see it, and also the way I see it.
 

 

You know, it's been so long since fully engaged in what the CDC did or didn't do that I don't recall that it was the CDC that set the capacities on the ships?  I thought it was the cruise lines that made that decision?

 

Of course 12% (at full capacity) is more than any to date since March 2020.  My only point was the transcript of the earnings call contains a lot of 'window dressing' with the "40 cruises at 100% capacity" bravado.  Sounds great.  If it was a 'positive' win-win to state that that represents 12% of our cruises they would have said such.

 

5 hours ago, oteixeira said:

As to the dry dock, I read it as "Will have been" meaning they were in and out, to get updated documents (they need these every 5 years, if they passed 5 years during the lock down, instant dry dock) or getting new paint jobs for some Carnival ships as well.  Not that they are broken down with major work needed.

Again, not saying you are wrong, just saying their are many ways to read the document and come away with what you want it to say.

 

Again, just noting perspective and context.  39 will be in dry dock as they noted; whether painting, etc. doesn't matter.  Add that to the 22 ships that they have disposed of or removed from active since the pandemic.  That's 61 pre-pandemic ships either gone or not currently available and 35 ships available to book.

 

If the demand was such, with about 1/3rd available supply of cruises, one would proffer that those ships sailing would all be 100%+ and priced very expensive.  They are not.

 

JIMO.

 

 

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

2 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

You know, it's been so long since fully engaged in what the CDC did or didn't do that I don't recall that it was the CDC that set the capacities on the ships?  I thought it was the cruise lines that made that decision?

 

Of course 12% (at full capacity) is more than any to date since March 2020.  My only point was the transcript of the earnings call contains a lot of 'window dressing' with the "40 cruises at 100% capacity" bravado.  Sounds great.  If it was a 'positive' win-win to state that that represents 12% of our cruises they would have said such.

 

 

Again, just noting perspective and context.  39 will be in dry dock as they noted; whether painting, etc. doesn't matter.  Add that to the 22 ships that they have disposed of or removed from active since the pandemic.  That's 61 pre-pandemic ships either gone or not currently available and 35 ships available to book.

 

If the demand was such, with about 1/3rd available supply of cruises, one would proffer that those ships sailing would all be 100%+ and priced very expensive.  They are not.

 

JIMO.

 

 

 

 

Not that this matters in the grande scheme of things but Holland America just pulled the Volendam out of service to house refugees. They are saying she will return in July but I’m doubtful. 

[Crazy planning mom]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Not that this matters in the grande scheme of things but Holland America just pulled the Volendam out of service to house refugees. They are saying she will return in July but I’m doubtful. 

That ship is over 20 years old.  Probably, the exit of smaller less profitable ships will be accelerated.

[BermudaBound2014]

19 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

That ship is over 20 years old.  Probably, the exit of smaller less profitable ships will be accelerated.

 Ccl has been very proactive. Of course with the largest fleet they have more wiggle room. In fact, ccl is sending carnival sunshine to the scrap yard as I type.

The difference is that Volendam had paying customers that are now without a ship to sail. Of course if the ship was selling well I doubt Ccl would have volunteered up the Volendam to begin with. The article says they are getting paid. 

[oteixeira]

So, if they are still lying they are doing a good job of it.  Got a nice post bell pop today on this article (on all 3 lines):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-cruise-line-sees-its-highest-booking-week-ever-as-it-finds-another-way-to-celebrate-its-50th-birthday-301517144.html

Also, @BermudaBound2014 are you sure about the Sunshine?  That is not a Fantasy class ship, which are their oldest, and I can't find anything about them scraping it.  

[At Sea At Peace]

41 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

So, if they are still lying they are doing a good job of it.  

 

Yes they are ('window dressing'). 

 

If one week has their highest record bookings what about the other 104 previous weeks 'under or no bookings?'  Ooops, they haven't reported all the data on those.  😉

 

Mathematically, how many weeks of these highest record bookings (new cash bookings or credit books?) does it take to make up for 104 weeks of little to no new bookings?  🙄

 

Can you say O-BA.1. O-1BA.2 and the XE variants all at once with the grand finale the MTE variant?  😲

 

Good luck for your investment short- or long-term though.  

Edited April 4, 2022 by At Sea At Peace

[BermudaBound2014]

35 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

So, if they are still lying they are doing a good job of it.  Got a nice post bell pop today on this article (on all 3 lines):

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carnival-cruise-line-sees-its-highest-booking-week-ever-as-it-finds-another-way-to-celebrate-its-50th-birthday-301517144.html

Also, @BermudaBound2014 are you sure about the Sunshine?  That is not a Fantasy class ship, which are their oldest, and I can't find anything about them scraping it.  

 

Sorry about that... it's the Sensation. 

 

Lying/misleading~Take your pick lol. I don't trust the big picture.

 

Yes, a nice Pop post bell helped to recover the daily loss. 

 

NCLH has been moving opposite RCL and CCL the last week.

 

The earnings call should shed light on the reality of the situation.

 

I continue to admire your optimism. I think you should buy more long 🙂

 

[oteixeira]

48 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Sorry about that... it's the Sensation. 

 

Lying/misleading~Take your pick lol. I don't trust the big picture.

 

Yes, a nice Pop post bell helped to recover the daily loss. 

 

NCLH has been moving opposite RCL and CCL the last week.

 

The earnings call should shed light on the reality of the situation.

 

I continue to admire your optimism. I think you should buy more long 🙂

 

If I buy more long now it will screw up my average in price that looks so nice!  :)  Like I said, my new purchase was some CCL when it dipped a bit in early March, but it is not performing as nice as if I would have purchased NCLH at the same time.  And I have done some in and out swing trades as we discussed, but nothing for the long hold.  

I guess the next few weeks will add clarity, we will see.  A few of the places you should never trust (Motley Fool et all) are saying April will be a good month for travel stocks.

[At Sea At Peace]

14 hours ago, oteixeira said:

I guess the next few weeks will add clarity, we will see.  A few of the places you should never trust (Motley Fool et all) are saying April will be a good month for travel stocks.

 

Yep, et al.

 

[oteixeira]

54 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Yep, et al.

 

Sorry about that, my one major flaw (and I have a ton of minor flaws) is my ability to spell and use the English language.  

[At Sea At Peace]

37 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Sorry about that, my one major flaw (and I have a ton of minor flaws) is my ability to spell and use the English language.  

 

@oteixeira I didn't even see the grammar.  NP.  I was just agreeing with the point about Motley Fool and "pals."  😉

[oteixeira]

10 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

@oteixeira I didn't even see the grammar.  NP.  I was just agreeing with the point about Motley Fool and "pals."  😉

The only thing funnier then those web sites are any of the message boards out there that follow stocks.  Basically people pumping up stocks that they missed opportunities on and are now bag holding.  Funny and sad all at the same time.