When are cruise fares usually at their lowest?

[iancal]

You cannot tell when fares will be the lowest.  We enjoyed one incredibly priced  balcony late booking on Celebrity  over Xmas.   Miraculously we were able to good last minute air.   We did a March spring break Caribbean three days prior to sailing when we touring Florida. 

 

Ditto for a last minute March break sailing from San Diego.  Jumped in the car and drove down the length of the I 15 and then toured on the way home.  It was an 8 day Carnival cruise.  One of our all time favorites.  We had a blast and still talk about it.  Service, food, entertainment was as good as we had ever had any of the other mass market lines.

Edited August 24, 2022 by iancal

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, *Miss G* said:

 

Poor choice in wording.  How about protective?

"protective" is a good term, but the fact is: rules and regulation are rarely "free".   Consumer protections, like any other thing of value, must cost something - and, since the consumer is the one protected, the consumer must carry the cost -- one way or another.  

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

Hardly!  

An “unpopular itinerary” is simply one which has not attracted many buyers- while the unusual itineraries are the ones which generally sell out earliest,

 

It has nothing to do with my preferences.

 

An itinerary whose fares have been cut significantly in the weeks before sailing is one (regardless of line or ports) is going to be one which has not attracted many buyers (i.e. “unpopular”)  while the itinerary which is sold out, or close to sold out, well in advance has to be seen as “popular”.

 

I frequently see short notice discounts for Caribbean cruises.   Same for Mexican Riviera and Alaska.  While I'm not a sun and beach fan, I would count those among the most popular because the passenger counts are likely high compared to many other places, but what do I know.  Additionally, you flatly say these sales only happen if there are not many buyers for the cruise.  That is also likely incorrect as the sales will happen if there are unsold cabins that can be filled.  

     

  

[navybankerteacher]

42 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

...  Additionally, you flatly say these sales only happen if there are not many buyers for the cruise.  That is also likely incorrect as the sales will happen if there are unsold cabins that can be filled.  

     

  

It seems that you are saying that if there were many buyers for those cruises, those sales might still happen.  Why would that be?  Prices are rarely cut when demand is high.

 

But then you do go on to note  that "...sales will happen if there are unsold cabins that can be filled."  This makes sense.

 

The fact is:  if an offered cruise is popular, demand will be high and fares are unlikely to be cut -- and, actually, intelligent marketers will likely increase fares if sales are VERY high.  Those intelligent marketers are most likely to cut fares if cabins are not selling (which means the itinerary is not that popular) -- the last thing they want to do is sail with empty cabins - better to make less on cabin bookings than their original pricing anticipated than miss out completely on on-board spending revenue.

Edited August 25, 2022 by navybankerteacher

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

It seems that you are saying that if there were many buyers for those cruises, those sales might still happen.  Why would that be?  Prices are rarely cut when demand is high.

 

But then you do go on to note  that "...sales will happen if there are unsold cabins that can be filled."  This makes sense.

 

The fact is:  if an offered cruise is popular, demand will be high and fares are unlikely to be cut -- and, actually, intelligent marketers will likely increase fares if sales are VERY high.  Those intelligent marketers are most likely to cut fares if cabins are not selling (which means the itinerary is not that popular) -- the last thing they want to do is sail with empty cabins - better to make less on cabin bookings than their original pricing anticipated than miss out completely on on-board spending revenue.

 

My experience is that unsold cabins go on sale shortly before a cruise.  And, that happens with mass market cruise lines in popular places like those I mentioned earlier.  Some of those places are among the most heavily cruised areas, so in my mind are not unpopular itineraries.   For that reason I disagreed with your saying they are unpopular.   Though I will agree some will fall in that category.     And yes, it seems reasonable that if 95% full a sale be offered for the 100, 200 or whatever number of unsold cabins as the sail date approaches.   Conversely, it is common to watch fares go up as the sail date approaches.  Clearly, those cruises don't have a lot of empty cabins.    

[wowzz]

8 hours ago, *Miss G* said:

 

Poor choice in wording.  How about protective?

Seems a much better description! 

[iancal]

Over the years we have been surprised a few times at deeply discounted cruise prices during popular vacation periods when we really did not expect it.

 

We very infrequently enjoy any protection other than that provided by our credit cards against vendor non delivery or bankruptcy.

 

Just about all of our cruises are booked in the final payment window.  That means we pay the entire fare with no recourse.   Often 45 days or so prior to sailing.

 

Once on Princess, I was able to change my cabin mate from my father to my spouse because of a medical issue.  Two weeks from sail date .  Princess was incredibly helpful/flexible, as was our TA. 

 

There was only, at that time,  a $25USD admin charge attached to that change.

Edited August 25, 2022 by iancal

[NantahalaCruiser]

On 8/24/2022 at 11:49 AM, *Miss G* said:

Agree with most everything others have already stated.  Keep in mind that you can book and then refare if you see a price drop prior to final payment.  Results will vary depending on the terms you have booked under.  For example, if you chose a non-refundable deposit, you will have to forfeit that deposit to book under the new terms.  In my experience with Holland America, if you book directly with a Personal Cruise Consultant (PCC) they will work to provide compensation if there is a price drop after final payment.

Perhaps there are some cruise lines that will not "refare" a non-refundable deposit fare without losing the deposit - but my experience with Celebrity is that there is no penalty for repricing a NR fare prior to final payment (although, just as with a R fare, you must accept the then current associated perks which may be different that you had with your original booking.)

[Hlitner]

I agree with nearly everyone :).  Our own experience (having booked something near 150 cruises) is that the best deals (emphasis on the word deal) can happen just about anytime with the best odds favoring cruises booked just inside the final payment period (which varies depending on the cruise line and the cruise).   Over the years we have snagged some decent deals by booking far in advance (often more than a year).  But the fantastic deals have all come with last minute bookings (inside the final payment period).  And these last minute deals can happen on some amazing itineraries,  Why?  There are always some (sometimes too many) cruisers who book multiple cruises, far in advance, because they want a big choice of cabins and cannot make up their mind about which cruise.  We know folks that will book 3 and even 4 cruises for the same weeks.  All these multi-bookers will cancel their booking near the final payment time.  This frees up booked cabins for last minute bookers and the cruise lines might have trouble selling these berths at the last minute.  So they quietly sell off those berths (often through favored high volume cruise agencies).  The agencies that handle these last minute bookings do so quietly as they are often prohibited (by the cruise line) from advertising the specials.

 

So how do you hear about these deals?  Get on the private e-mail lists of several reputable high volume cruise agencies or agencies that are part of large travel "consortiums" such as the Signature Travel Network (there are also others).  Consortiums are simply organizations which book huge number of cabins on behalf of their member agencies.  I will also mention that most travel/cruise agencies do not make it commonly known that they are part of a consortium, so this does require a little homework.  But, if a crusie line needs to sell off dozens or hundreds of last minute berths, they know that the consortiums can do this (often within a few days) and do it quietly (so that folks already booked are generally not aware of the better deals and lower prices).   The best deals we have ever snagged were actually pretty exotic cruises such as transatlantics and following European cruises, am amazing last minute HAL cruise in the Baltic, etc.

 

Finally, I would suggest that the COVID shutdown has really screwed up the entire cruise industry and things are not yet back to normal.  There are literally tens of millions of dollars of unused Future Cruise Credits (given out because of cancelled cruises) that have yet to be used and this does impact (in a negative way) last minute deals.  Over the next year, many of these FCCs will need to be used (or they will expire) and the market will gradually return to something akin to normal.

 

Hank

 

Hank

[George C]

Cheapest fares in Caribbean is at peak hurricane season September and October.

[ldubs]

6 hours ago, Hlitner said:

 

 

Finally, I would suggest that the COVID shutdown has really screwed up the entire cruise industry and things are not yet back to normal.  There are literally tens of millions of dollars of unused Future Cruise Credits (given out because of cancelled cruises) that have yet to be used and this does impact (in a negative way) last minute deals.  Over the next year, many of these FCCs will need to be used (or they will expire) and the market will gradually return to something akin to normal.

 

Hank

 

Hank

 

You hit the nail right on the head.  

[Mum2Mercury]

This is a complicated question. Not a comprehensive answer, but a few thoughts:

 

- If you're booking a suite or a unique room or a handicapped room, you should book early.  These rooms are few in number, and when they're gone, they're gone.  Because the competition for these rooms is higher, they are likely to go up in price. 

- On the other hand, if you're booking an inside, oceanview or balcony -- assuming you don't really care about your room number -- you can probably get a better price later.  Why?  Because the ship has a ton of these rooms available, and they won't be sold out.  This is especially true if you're planning to get an inside room; the ship wants to keep these cheapest-of-the-cheap rooms because those low numbers draw people in.  

- If you book on board, you can get on board credit for your next cruise, and that's a different way of getting a lower price.  

- After you book, keep watching your price.  If they lower the price of the cruise, call in and ask for a price match.  I always consider my booking price to be the highest price I might pay.  

- Avoid sailing on holidays.  Price drops on a holiday cruise are unlikely; if you're going to cruise a holiday, booking early is the best plan.

[Mum2Mercury]

On 8/27/2022 at 7:36 AM, Hlitner said:

Finally, I would suggest that the COVID shutdown has really screwed up the entire cruise industry and things are not yet back to normal. 

Yes, so true. 

[iancal]

The industry has not recovered.

 

The one thing that holds true pre covid and post covid is that pricing is based on supply and demand.  Just like it is for hotels, airline seats...everything really.   

 

Like others have mentioned, a few of our best last minute offers in the past were not advertised.   They came about when we emailed our TA at the time about taking advantage of another late booking. 

 

 Her response was always one of three.  Yes, I will book this for you.

 

  Or....I have another more competitive unadvertised offer for you to consider. 

 

Or...yes but I think you should wait a few days to book this because my info says this late booking price is about to drop again and there are still balcony cabins available.

 

It is why we never booked direct with a cruise line and why we have never been so called 'loyal' to any one cruise line.    We prefer to cherry pick.

Edited August 30, 2022 by iancal

[Steer]

New member here. 

 

Quite a few years ago (maybe 15) I worked on a massive insurance claim made by a cruise company, for a number of cancelled sailings. One of my jobs was to determine the loss of revenue to the cruise company. As you can imagine, one of the 1st questions we asked was how much a passenger pays for their cruise. There was actually no set answer.

 

When we actually started to dig down into the figures, we could see that early bookers got an early discount, direct bookers got a direct booking discount. Bookers via a travel agent got a travel agent discount. And the late bookers also got a discount because the cruise was not fully booked. All the discounts varied slightly, but not by much. After spending a long time analysing the figures, we did not see any particular trend or indication as to the best way to get a significantly cheaper cruise. 

 

Perhaps times have changed, and perhaps different cruise lines operate different pricing structures. But having since become a fan of cruises, even though I did a lot of work on those claims, I don't think that there is a magic answer that will end up saving you a huge amount of money. 

 

One cruise company we use sometimes offer pretty good value last minute deals on under booked cruises - but they tend to be the shorter and less exotic voyages. 

Edited August 31, 2022 by Steer

[boulders]

I also cherry pick. I booked a cruise last week on a cruise line that I've never sailed. I'd been watching one particular January '23 cruise on a cruise line I'm familiar with. Let's call it cruise line A. The pricing seemed to be stable at around $1800 for a solo inside. It's a pretty good fare, but was more than I wanted to spend. They have a lot of unsold cabins. For fun, I did a search on an online agency's website and opened it up to any cruise sailing around that time. I discovered that cruise line B, which that cruise line A is usually compared to,  was offering a very similar cruise, same length and same week, for less than half of cruise line A's price. So I booked a balcony on cruise line B for much less than cruise line A's inside price. Bonus is that I can drive to the port for cruise B. 

 

My best cruise bargain was in 2010. Disney cruise lines neglected to market their Mediterranean cruises. The Med cruises were offered at rock bottom prices plus kids sail free. They still didn't sell well. I ended up with a balcony for 4 people on an 11 night Med cruise for under $2K. 

 

I have a bucket list of cruises or places I want to visit. I don't restrict myself by  deciding on one particular place where I want to travel next. If I see something that goes to someplace on my bucket list for a great price, I jump on it. 

[MWarren3549]

I was able to get 2 cruises B2B for $400 each cruise as a solo in an interior cabin 7 days before sailing on NCL Sept. 2018.  The solo fee was waived.  For $800 BEFORE taxes/port fees/gratuities  all alone in an interior cabin and I DID have to move from 1 cabin to another at the end of the first cruise ... but it was a FANTASTIC deal, cruise,  and to this day I have a number of friends from this cruise.  

 

I would not have missed this for the world.  NY to Canada to NY  full 20 days onboard. 

 

[MWarren3549]

1 hour ago, MWarren3549 said:

I was able to get 2 cruises B2B for $400 each cruise as a solo in an interior cabin 7 days before sailing on NCL Sept. 2018.  The solo fee was waived.  For $800 BEFORE taxes/port fees/gratuities  all alone in an interior cabin and I DID have to move from 1 cabin to another at the end of the first cruise ... but it was a FANTASTIC deal, cruise,  and to this day I have a number of friends from this cruise.  

 

I would not have missed this for the world.  NY to Canada to NY  full 20 days onboard. 

 

I should have added I did NOT have a choice of cabins for purchasing so close to sailing date.  First cruise was Deck 5 and 2nd cruise was on the Deck 8.