Carnival Stock Drops Again After Earnings Report

[Lee Cruiser]

"Carnival Beats Expectations, but Its Stock Still Doesn't Merit a Party"

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ca763371-c081-345e-b463-87b87ddab5d6/carnival-beats-expectations-.html

[Honolulu Blue]

7 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Aloha Honolulu Blue,

 

Great post, thank for sharing. I'm on Maui time (mentally and physically) so I'm super behind in keeping up and haven't even read the transcripts of the conference call yet.  I wanted to tell you thanks for perking my interest :). 

 

As you might suspect, I question everything that is spun in these conference calls, but do find them entertaining. Remember when CCL said they would hit 100% occupancy by spring of 2022? Or how about when RCL said they didn't anticipate selling more bonds, yet did exactly that the next month? Or NCLH saying they have had record bookings for Q4 and then posted 68% occupancy after the fact? These guys are really good at their jobs.

 

There are a few important notes you have bolded that I will be watching to see if they come to fruition. I'm most interested in the 'accelerated debt pay down plan'.... but then he goes on to say they expect to reduce the debt by only 2 Billion this year (from 35.1 to 33.5). Since CCL is currently paying over 500 million per quarter in interest only (over 2 Billion annually) does this mean they plan to pay 2 Billion in interest only payments (and not default) yet nothing on the principle? For me, it's all about the debt.

 

Totally off financial topic, I am interested in the pier at Half Moon Cay. I know they received permission to build this prior to covid but I'm not sure if they have started construction yet? I know there was talk on the HAL board about a Carnival and HAL ship scheduled at HMC for the first time this year, but I haven't read anywhere where the pier is actually being constructed and have no idea how long that should take.

 

Anyway, thanks again!!

You're welcome! I'm happy to find someone else who's interested in such things and capable of digesting what they mean.

 

On the HMC pier, Mr. Weinstein certainly said it like it was a done deal that everyone knows about. It was news to me. I had heard rumors about a pier there, but nothing confirmed. I should put Mr. Heald's feet to the fire on this. 👺

 

Certainly Weinstein and Bernstein said some interesting things that you and I and perhaps others will be following in the coming years.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, Lee Cruiser said:

"Carnival Beats Expectations, but Its Stock Still Doesn't Merit a Party"

 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/ca763371-c081-345e-b463-87b87ddab5d6/carnival-beats-expectations-.html

Perhaps not, but the stock is still significantly higher than when the article this thread is based on was posted Monday.

[BlerkOne]

Wow. Carnival stock popped again today. Now well over $10/share! Looks like once again CCL stock is being held back by Royal and NCL.

[TwoAdriftAtSea]

In monday after hours and out this morning, this go around will subsidize 3 weeks of land touring in Europe.

Still holding a bunch of shares @16.11 eventually it will either be profitable or a bust. Not going to lose sleep over it as CD rates are going UP .

Edited March 30, 2023 by TwoAdriftAtSea
TYPO

[BermudaBound2014]

2 minutes ago, TwoAdriftAtSea said:

In monday after hours and out this morning...

 

 

Nice, I love it when the little guys win 🙂

[BlerkOne]

After the stock fell 5% on Monday, it gained in each of the subsequent days this week and was up 9.5% as of Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

 

[BermudaBound2014]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

After the stock fell 5% on Monday, it gained in each of the subsequent days this week and was up 9.5% as of Thursday at 2 p.m. ET, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

 

 

It's been on a nice run this week. Almost back up to what it was March 6th :).

 

Last time it broke $11 the CFO sold over 100,000 shares in insider trading.

 

Let's see how this plays out.....

[BlerkOne]

To put into perspective - Royal was 74.16 on March 6 and 64.70 today. Quite the rally.

[BermudaBound2014]

It's true, CCL has lost less Money this month than the competition, but it's has still lost money.

 

We can go back and forth all day. You think CCL is the strongest of the three. I disagree.

 

I'm making a note to revisit this thread periodically to see who ends up being correct over time.

 

I don't mind being wrong. 

 

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[BlerkOne]

1 minute ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

It's true, CCL has lost less Money this month than the competition, but it's has still lost money.

 

We can go back and forth all day. You think CCL is the strongest of the three. I disagree.

 

I'm making a note to revisit this thread periodically to see who ends up being correct over time.

 

I don't mind being wrong. 

 

 

I wouldn't use the word strong for any of them. I still say anyone who gets stock advice from a cruise board is a fool.

[BermudaBound2014]

27 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

I wouldn't use the word strong for any of them. I still say anyone who gets stock advice from a cruise board is a fool.

 

Since you continue to refer to RCL and NCLH as 'wannabes" and are accusing them of dragging down CCL stock, you do believe that CCL is the strongest of the three, correct? 

 

Not that CCL is a strong stock overall; but do you believe CCL will outperform NCLH and RCL?

 

PS: I still agree that anyone who gets stock advice from a cruise board is a fool. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[BlerkOne]

20 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Since you continue to refer to RCL and NCLH as 'wannabes" and are accusing them of dragging down CCL stock, you do believe that CCL is the strongest of the three, correct? 

 

Not that CCL is a strong stock overall; but do you believe CCL will outperform NCLH and RCL?

 

PS: I still agree that anyone who gets stock advice from a cruise board is a fool. 

Another pandemic will bankrupt all of them. It isn't a matter of outperform, it is who survives.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

Another pandemic will bankrupt all of them. It isn't a matter of outperform, it is who survives.

I have to disagree with you. Either the industry survives, or it does not. They are all in the same boat (pun not intended), facing the same economic realities.

[BlerkOne]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

I have to disagree with you. Either the industry survives, or it does not. They are all in the same boat (pun not intended), facing the same economic realities.

The industry will survive even if individual cruise lines don't.

[ontheweb]

16 hours ago, BlerkOne said:

The industry will survive even if individual cruise lines don't.

And airlines are still flying. They had their bankruptcies and are still flying, but how did their stockholders make out?

[BlerkOne]

31 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

And airlines are still flying. They had their bankruptcies and are still flying, but how did their stockholders make out?

Airlines had bailouts, too. Sometimes more than once. Amazing how all those frequent flier miles survived through bankruptcy. 

[ontheweb]

37 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Airlines had bailouts, too. Sometimes more than once. Amazing how all those frequent flier miles survived through bankruptcy. 

Non sequitur, my question was how did the stockholders make out, not how did passengers make out.

[resetjet]

The thing is most people i talk to on ships didnt pay a thin dime for their cruise.  We have not paid doe the last 8 cruises.  They are losing money on us.

[john91498]

if you can't afford to lose in the stock market...you shouldn't be in the stock market.

 

Carnival's stock price can go down to zero and I'll just write it off as a lost. No big deal, just go on to the next trade.

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Non sequitur, my question was how did the stockholders make out, not how did passengers make out.

Institutions are the biggest shareholder so who cares? Other than you might have your retirement funds take a hit. Should have picked better funds.

[Illbcruzn4life]

Looks like it was CCL dragging down NCLH and RCL today. 

[BermudaBound2014]

38 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

Looks like it was CCL dragging down NCLH and RCL today. 

unfortunately, It was only a matter of time. 

[BlerkOne]

42 minutes ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

Looks like it was CCL dragging down NCLH and RCL today. 

Profit taking after the ginormous run up in CCL this week.

[BermudaBound2014]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

Profit taking after the ginormous run up in CCL this week.

Or more insider trading. 

 

You consider this week a ginormous run?