CCL High Debt /what is Your Opinion

[cruisemom42]

Once again, HAL is offering "fire sale" prices on near-term cruises. If things are going so well, it's hard to see the need for these:

 

 

Or, to put it another way -- to get occupancy up, must prices be significantly lowered?  When prices go up, how sensitive is the market?

 

[Guest ldtr]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Quite so. Anyone who has seen a recent Princess ship, knows that Princess is trying to emulate Carnival. Attracting the younger crowd for Fun Fun Fun. This is a photo of the Majestic Princess 144k GT, with its mega screen on an open top deck.

 

Its apparent that many working-age pax would like to join the HAL family. However, Princess etc already caters to that demographic. Fun at the Lowest Price! Nothing wrong with that. 

 

 

 

Have you actually been on a Princess ship.  The big screen is mostly for movies and sporting events. In many cases draws complaints from many of the passengers for being to noisy since they also use it for background music with travel videos.

 

They do occasionally have a golf contest trying to hit a ping pong ball into a hoop in one of the pools.

 

The one area that Princess does well is that has a number of separated venues where a number of activities are conducted such as trivia, bingo, game show type events etc.

 

Not exactly fun fun fun like carnival.  But more of a more traditional line with a number of activities that older adults tend to like with a mixture of entertainment.

 

It, like HAL, has also stayed away from the ship within a ship or class structure that other lines have gone to.  Though that will change with its new Sun class, where they are going to a class system, and where they will be adding more family features.  

 

In many ways HAL and Princess are pretty close.  HAL has smaller ships, and far less flexible venues which makes it difficult to really make use of the music venues for other activities.  Princess ship designs are larger, with multiple venues that are designed to be flexible to cover anything from guest entertainers, to trivia to game show type activities.  HAL has a little better food.  Both HAL and Princess have similar kids clubs.  HAL has longer itineraries, but Princess is next out of the main stream lines where as Celebrity is not adding on additional 3 and 3 days cruises.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

2 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Have you actually been on a Princess ship.  The big screen is mostly for movies and sporting events. In many cases draws complaints from many of the passengers for being to noisy since they also use it for background music with travel videos.

 

They do occasionally have a golf contest trying to hit a ping pong ball into a hoop in one of the pools.

 

The one area that Princess does well is that has a number of separated venues where a number of activities are conducted such as trivia, bingo, game show type events etc.

 

Not exactly fun fun fun like carnival.  But more of a more traditional line with a number of activities that older adults tend to like with a mixture of entertainment.

 

It, like HAL, has also stayed away from the ship within a ship or class structure that other lines have gone to.  Though that will change with its new Sun class, where they are going to a class system, and where they will be adding more family features.  

 

In many ways HAL and Princess are pretty close.  HAL has smaller ships, and far less flexible venues which makes it difficult to really make use of the music venues for other activities.  Princess ship designs are larger, with multiple venues that are designed to be flexible to cover anything from guest entertainers, to trivia to game show type activities.  HAL has a little better food.  Both HAL and Princess have similar kids clubs.  HAL has longer itineraries, but Princess is next out of the main stream lines where as Celebrity is not adding on additional 3 and 3 days cruises.

The çrew are different.

[BermudaBound2014]

8 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Once again, HAL is offering "fire sale" prices on near-term cruises. If things are going so well, it's hard to see the need for these:

 

 

Or, to put it another way -- to get occupancy up, must prices be significantly lowered?  When prices go up, how sensitive is the market?

 

Yep. The way occupancy is being reported is smoke and mirrors. We know they are discounting cruises. 

 

And HAL actually admits they are manipulating pricing to get bookings up-- Why do they need a sale to specifically spur bookings with low deposits if bookings are at an all time high?

 

“Money-saving Offer Designed to Spur Bookings 

The line said its offer of reduced deposits is geared to making it more economical for guests to plan a future cruise.”

 

It doesn’t pass the smell test.

[Guest ldtr]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Yep. The way occupancy is being reported is smoke and mirrors. We know they are discounting cruises. 

 

And HAL actually admits they are manipulating pricing to get bookings up-- Why do they need a sale to specifically spur bookings with low deposits if bookings are at an all time high?

 

“Money-saving Offer Designed to Spur Bookings 

The line said its offer of reduced deposits is geared to making it more economical for guests to plan a future cruise.”

 

It doesn’t pass the smell test.

Just as airlines and all of the other cruise lines.  All of them use a combination of shifting fare prices to accomplish what they consider to be max revenue. All of them do sales.  All of them tend to advertize how low their prices are to get people to bit, but then you usually find exactly how limited the low fare really is but by doing so they get you to look at the trip you really want to take.

 

Kind of funny really.  I get sale notifications from the other cruise lines, all inclusive resorts, air lines just about every day.  Kind of line the Alaska air flights from $39 dollar advertisement.  The real question is exactly how many of their itineraries are available at that price.  I would guess not many.  The one way trips from Vancouver to Whittier and reverse, probably is.  Probably not many others.

[Mary229]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

Once again, HAL is offering "fire sale" prices on near-term cruises. If things are going so well, it's hard to see the need for these:

 

 

Or, to put it another way -- to get occupancy up, must prices be significantly lowered?  When prices go up, how sensitive is the market?

 

I think there is some truth to what you are saying but I have noticed most of the very best sales are to locations with very expensive airfare.  We booked a fare to South America , very inexpensive and I can get most refunded, but the airfare (premium economy) is over $5500   We are still deciding hoping the airfares drop 

[cruisemom42]

21 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I think there is some truth to what you are saying but I have noticed most of the very best sales are to locations with very expensive airfare.  We booked a fare to South America , very inexpensive and I can get most refunded, but the airfare (premium economy) is over $5500   We are still deciding hoping the airfares drop 

 

All the cruise lines must be hurting with the sky-high airfares. I've wondered whether that played a role in HAL having fewer ships in Europe this year -- but I'm not sure they are that prescient!

 

I've had to get very creative with flights this year. I also like premium economy and on most flights from my hub they are sold out on all reasonable flights, especially non-stops, to where I need to be.

 

[kazu]

All I know is that my upcoming cruise is double the price of when I booked.  My 2024 cruise is also up in my price by $1,000+ since I booked.  I guess I don’t book the right cruises 😂 

 

I’ll deal with my own finances and let HAL deal with theirs.

 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, kazu said:

All I know is that my upcoming cruise is double the price of when I booked.  My 2024 cruise is also up in my price by $1,000+ since I booked.  I guess I don’t book the right cruises 😂 

 

I’ll deal with my own finances and let HAL deal with theirs.

 

 

 

I'm not showing where the price of your Rotterdam cruise on October 7th has doubled, but it has gone up in most categories which is surprising to me because there is a lot of inventory available still. Might want to keep an eye on this one for a price drop closer in (unless you are in a suite which only has only a sprinkling of cabins, which accounts for the large price increase). This site isn't perfect, but it's proven to be very close every time I've tracked prices. 

 

 

 

I'm not showing any price increase on your Oosterdam Oct 20 2024 cruise, but it's still quite early.

 

 

 

 

[kazu]

7 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm not showing where the price of your Rotterdam cruise on October 7th has doubled, but it has gone up in most categories which is surprising to me because there is a lot of inventory available still. Might want to keep an eye on this one for a price drop closer in (unless you are in a suite which only has only a sprinkling of cabins, which accounts for the large price increase). This site isn't perfect, but it's proven to be very close every time I've tracked prices. 

 

So, are you calling me a liar?  

 

I know what my confirmation says (and my Rotterdam cruise is paid for now) and I know what the HAL site says if I book the same cabin category now.    So your site is wrong or it’s looking at insides - and no, I’m not in a suite but I am in a nice aft verandah.  I do have enough brains to do a dummy booking thank you and I am not exaggerating.  

 

And actually, there is the not the inventory there appears as there are guarantees in the picture - and a number of them.

 

I should have known better to post on this thread. 

[BermudaBound2014]

Yeesh, easy. I wasn't calling you a liar, just pointing out that I found conflicting data. It's very rare that transatlantic sailings double in price (and I've charted transatlantic pricing for many years) so I was a bit surprised.

 

I'm happy you booked at such a great price and hope you can get it even lower (if that's the direction you want to go).  The HAL site is a terrible place to check for inventory. I could give you the exact number of cabins still available on your sailing but I suspect that would not be welcomed either. 

 

This thread has attracted us data nerds, and I admit it's not for everyone.

 

Wishing you calm seas and happy sailing. 

 

[mcrcruiser]

Today June 29th I read on the business fpr CCL stock that Carnival   corp has used deposit monies to pay down  $1,000,000,000.00   in debt  .We thought that was illegal to use deposit money the cruise line has yet to earn to pay down  debt 

 

Does any one else have more information  on this subject ?  

 

 If this is truly the case ,we have thousands out in cruises fully paid & mostly paid way before needed  .This really concerns us ,that deposits are being used to pay down debt ,So what if we have a recession & cruise sales drop off   ,Then what happens to Carnival Corporation servicing their debt . Will the US Government  bail them out ? 

 

 Lot of unanswered questions ,sad to say

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by mcrcruiser

[BermudaBound2014]

12 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Today June 29th I read on the business fpr CCL stock that Carnival   corp has used deposit monies to pay down  $1,000,000,000.00   in debt  .We thought that was illegal to use deposit money the cruise line has yet to earn to pay down  debt 

 

Does any one else have more information  on this subject ?  

 

 If this is truly the case ,we have thousands out in cruises fully paid & mostly paid way before needed  .This really concerns us ,that deposits are being used to pay down debt ,So what if we have a recession & cruise sales drop off   ,Then what happens to Carnival Corporation servicing their debt . Will the US Government  bail them out ? 

 

 Lot of unanswered questions ,sad to say

 

 

 

Just curious, what makes you think they used deposit money to pay down 1B?

 

I interpreted them to take 1B from their savings account to pay off debt. They had 8B at the start of the quarter and now they have 7B. There is a lot of creative accounting going on with all the cruise lines. 

 

Maybe @ldtr has a different take? While I might not agree with his analysis (plenty of analysts disagree about the cruise industry); I do respect his dedication to crunching numbers :). 

 

BTW: The debt is real across all cruise lines, not just CCL.

 Viking Cruises Ltd. sold $720 million of junk bonds on Monday to refinance costly debt.

Edited June 30, 2023 by BermudaBound2014

[HappyInVan]

4 hours ago, ldtr said:

Have you actually been on a Princess ship.  The big screen is mostly for movies and sporting events. In many cases draws complaints from many of the passengers for being to noisy since they also use it for background music with travel videos.

 

 

Actually, I've only been on a few HAL ships. Immediately, I recognized the differences between HAL and Princess on the top deck. Note the similarities between Majestic and NCL Bliss and Symphony of the Seas. There's a world of difference between HAL and the others when viewed at night. You might also like NCL and RCI?

 

Hope this helps...

 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by HappyInVan

[kazu]

54 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

The HAL site is a terrible place to check for inventory. I could give you the exact number of cabins still available on your sailing but I suspect that would not be welcomed either. 

 

You know all the guarantees involved?  they are part of the inventory..  Wow.  
 

I didn’t say I looked at the HAL site for inventory.  I look at it for pricing. 

 

[BermudaBound2014]

3 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

You know all the guarantees involved?  they are part of the inventory..  Wow.  
 

I didn’t say I looked at the HAL site for inventory.  I look at it for pricing. 

 

 

It's amazing how close you can get with an IATA and the right phone numbers.

 

I rarely look at HAL for pricing, but clearly we approach booking cruises quite differently. That's what makes the world go around.

 

Happy Sailing.

 

 

 

 

[albingirl]

50 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Today June 29th I read on the business fpr CCL stock that Carnival   corp has used deposit monies to pay down  $1,000,000,000.00   in debt  .We thought that was illegal to use deposit money the cruise line has yet to earn to pay down  debt 

 

Does any one else have more information  on this subject ?  

 

 If this is truly the case ,we have thousands out in cruises fully paid & mostly paid way before needed  .This really concerns us ,that deposits are being used to pay down debt ,So what if we have a recession & cruise sales drop off   ,Then what happens to Carnival Corporation servicing their debt . Will the US Government  bail them out ? 

 

 Lot of unanswered questions ,sad to say

 

 

Such a negative thread. 

[kazu]

28 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

That's what makes the world go around.

 

Yes, the world that goes around is composed of more than the U.S. pricing.  Some of us book in Canadian dollars, some in euros, some in Australian, etc.

 

Exchange rates have a role to play.  HAL’s contracts are only for a few months so pricing can change on exchange rates as well as inventory.

 

There is more to the world than U.S. pricing.  I book in Canadian dollars unless my crystal ball tells me I’d be better off in U.S. (that’s been a long time).  And it’s why some sites in the U.S. don’t reveal true cost increases for those that don’t pay in American dollars.

 

 

28 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

Happy Sailing.

 

You too.

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Just curious, what makes you think they used deposit money to pay down 1B?

 

I interpreted them to take 1B from their savings account to pay off debt. They had 8B at the start of the quarter and now they have 7B. There is a lot of creative accounting going on with all the cruise lines. 

 

Maybe @ldtr has a different take? While I might not agree with his analysis (plenty of analysts disagree about the cruise industry); I do respect his dedication to crunching numbers :). 

 

BTW: The debt is real across all cruise lines, not just CCL.

 Viking Cruises Ltd. sold $720 million of junk bonds on Monday to refinance costly debt.

I was looking at notes on Carnival CCL on Yahoofinance.com& read it there today , Actually CCL debt is a real problem when the FED continues to raise the interest rates . They already announced 2 more likely raises to stem inflation .Economists see those 2 more interest rate increases as a sure fire  recession & cruise lines do not do well in recessions

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Just curious, what makes you think they used deposit money to pay down 1B?

 

I interpreted them to take 1B from their savings account to pay off debt. They had 8B at the start of the quarter and now they have 7B. There is a lot of creative accounting going on with all the cruise lines. 

 

Maybe @ldtr has a different take? While I might not agree with his analysis (plenty of analysts disagree about the cruise industry); I do respect his dedication to crunching numbers :). 

 

BTW: The debt is real across all cruise lines, not just CCL.

 Viking Cruises Ltd. sold $720 million of junk bonds on Monday to refinance costly debt.

I would expect them to use deposits where it makes the most sense.  Deposits are not held in an escrow account and they never have.  There is also no law telling them how they manage the cash.

 

Look for example at any of the filings for 2019.  Compare the amount of cash on hand to the customer deposits balance.  The cash was usually about 3 billion or so while the customer deposits was around 7 billion.  That other 4 billion was helping to fund new ships.

 

That was one of the reason why they had such a problem when Covid forced them to shutdown.  Because they had a deposits balance that exceeded their cash on hand.  One of the reasons for going the FCC route instead of refunds where they could.

 

Not a problem as long as there is not another shutdown.  New deposits come in and add to the balance in that account, cruises are taken and subtract from it.  As long as business is rather constant no problem, the value of the account stays pretty constant and no draw on that cash so it can be used.  It basically gives the cruise lines an amount of cash that is equal to 1/4 of their annual revenue that is pretty constant.  They would be crazy not to take 60-70% of it and apply it to high interest debt to lower expenses.  Same with all of the cruise lines.

 

Viking on the other hand requires full payment a year out, or 6 months if you book while on board a Viking cruise.  That gives them between 50-75% of their annual revenue in cash that they can use to help fund the building of more ships.

[Guest ldtr]

3 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Actually, I've only been on a few HAL ships. Immediately, I recognized the differences between HAL and Princess on the top deck. Note the similarities between Majestic and NCL Bliss and Symphony of the Seas. There's a world of difference between HAL and the others when viewed at night. You might also like NCL and RCI?

 

Hope this helps...

 

 

Too funny Quite a difference between Princess ships and NCL, or Royal or Carnival.  So I guess that answers that you have not actually been on a Princess ship and have no clue about the environment on board, features, activities, passenger mix, etc. 

 

Actually the Princess ship you have the picture of is not the Majestic.  One of the other Royal class but not Majestic.  The Majestic was built for the Chinese market and does not have the Sanctuary and the retreat pool.  Instead it has an indoor area called the Hollywood Pool and Conservatory

 

Starting at the front on top the covered area is called the Sanctuary.  An extra cost area where people reserve spots with extra services.  The equivalent of the HAL Retreat.  Both the new HAL ships and the Princess ship have sports courts near the back of the ship.

 

The pool area behind the Sanctuary is the retreat pool.  That is an adult only pool where the cabana type structures are managed by the Sanctuary.  Behind that space you have the pool area, pretty similar to the HAL pool area, about the only difference is the one on Princess is open air with the movie screen, where as HAL is covered by the sliding roof.  Other than that pretty similar. Princess stopped having indoor pools after the Grand and the Japanese subclasses.

 

Beyond that is basically the buffet area.

 

The movie screen is used during the day to show movies, sometimes they might show some kind of music event like a concert.  At night they show another movie.  Sometimes it is used for sporting events like NFL playoffs, college bowl games, etc.  

 

Both Princess and HAL have a kids club that is pretty similar.

 

The environment on both ships is pretty similar as far as mix of passengers.  I cannot speak for the Caribbean since I have not been on a ship there in several years.  But on the west coast, cruises to Hawaii, to the south pacific, Transatlantics, cruises around Europe.  The environment is pretty similar.

 

The major difference are what I stated earlier.  Princess larger ships, HAL smaller.  HAL optimized for Music Walk, Princess venues more general purpose and flexible.  HAL music groups linked to music walk and pretty much the same.  Princess music groups are hired as an existing group and will vary from ship to ship, often based upon region.  Cruises to Mexico will have a Mariachi band for example.  Cruses to Hawaii will have Hawaiian hosts teaching ukulele and hulu.  Princess tends to have far more CD staff activities such as Trivia, game shows, lectures, etc.  HAL average itinerary length is longer,  Princess is shorter.  Still mostly 7 day and longer, but no real equivalent to the HAL 40+ day cruises.

 

HAL tends to have slightly better food (I really like the Parmesan encrusted chicken for example) than princess.  But very very similar.  They both have a steak house and Italian Specialty dining.  Though Princess is adding a few other options. The buffet on the Princess Royal class I consider to be better than either HAL or the Princess Grand class.  It is bigger, more variety and better layout.

 

Royal class ships are very similar to Princess Grand class ships.  Similar layout, just larger.  The differences are around the edges such as no full walk around Promenade and smaller balconies sizes on the Royal class than the Grand class. Same TV Screen, same pools same kids club.  One can go from a grand class ship to a Royal and pretty much know where everything is, just different deck numbers for the top decks.

 

I will be on the Majestic in 9 days.

Edited June 30, 2023 by ldtr

[HappyInVan]

52 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Actually the Princess ship you have the picture of is not the Majestic.  One of the other Royal class but not Majestic.  The Majestic was built for the Chinese market and does not have the Sanctuary and the retreat pool.  Instead it has an indoor area called the Hollywood Pool and Conservatory...

 

 

In post 224. the ship is the Majestic. In post 243 , the pic is of aerial view of the Royal Princess which is in the same Royal class as the Majestic.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal-class_cruise_ship

 

Frankly, I'm disappointed that you made the ridiculous claim that the Princess pax are older than that of HAL, and without solid sources for your belief. I'm glad that other members called you out on it. 😄

[Ride-The-Waves]

7 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

In post 224. the ship is the Majestic. In post 243 , the pic is of aerial view of the Royal Princess which is in the same Royal class as the Majestic.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal-class_cruise_ship

 

Frankly, I'm disappointed that you made the ridiculous claim that the Princess pax are older than that of HAL, and without solid sources for your belief. I'm glad that other members called you out on it. 😄

Last two cruises, a TA on Princess and a canal transit on HAL, the preponderance of walkers and scooters was on Princess...

[Guest ldtr]

7 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

In post 224. the ship is the Majestic. In post 243 , the pic is of aerial view of the Royal Princess which is in the same Royal class as the Majestic.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal-class_cruise_ship

 

Frankly, I'm disappointed that you made the ridiculous claim that the Princess pax are older than that of HAL, and without solid sources for your belief. I'm glad that other members called you out on it. 😄

You stated Majestic in post 243. 

 

Actually I had a reference just could not share it in public which would make a portion of a commercial report part of the public domain, not allowed underarms and conditions.

 

Atleast I don't talk about the environment on a cruise line  I have never been on.

Edited June 30, 2023 by ldtr

[Guest ldtr]

6 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Last two cruises, a TA on Princess and a canal transit on HAL, the preponderance of walkers and scooters was on Princess...

My experience also on the TA on Regal in May.