CCL Stock has taken a BIG Drop today

[LAFFNVEGAS]

:eek: CCL Stock has taken a big drop today to hit a 52 week low. I suppose it would be good time to buy if you want to get future ship board credit. Sadly I bought the majority of mine when it was much higher. They claim one of the reasons besides fuel cost is reduced bookings. So one of two things will happen either the price of our cruises will go up to recover the losses or the price of cruises will go down to initiate more bookings. Wonder which it will be:confused:

[jhannah]

Good question. I'm going to go with increased cruise prices.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Good question. I'm going to go with increased cruise prices.

 

Now Jim, that is not the answer I wanted to hear. I was hoping for prices dropping like after 9-11

[as41shots]

I am sure the CCL accounting wonks will have a wonderful exercise figuring out which way to go.

 

"Let's see, if we raise prices 8% and lose 2% in bookings, we are ahead... but if we lower prices 8 % and increase bookings by 12% we are still ahead. So which way do we go?"

 

Should be fun over at corporate.

[jhannah]

When things get serious, one corporate option is to dispose of the subsidiary that is producing your biggest drain. You have to "sell for a song," but sometimes it's best in the long run to cut your losses and run.

[SailorKate]

Hmmmm....My guess is that the reduced bookings have nothing to do with loss of interest or the cost of cruising today but rather a reflection of the lost bookings due to the fire....Not only did they lose the bookings they had but their offers of future credits/vouchers will be costly. Throw in the cost of a new ship on her maiden voyage, repairs after the New Orleans ship rentals and then of course the cost of fuel! Sounds like a cash flow problem to me.

 

Friends have booked a 2 week river cruise with a well known Cruise line and were just billed an additional fee due to the increase in the cost of fuel. They leave on May 20th so the fee was long after final payment had been made. I guess the word "final" does not always mean final when you read the fine print.

 

I won't run out and buy anymore right now....but I do believe the stock will regain it's position in time Here's hoping anyway???

[venicecruiser]

Well, the Veendam 2007 transat I booked a couple weeks ago has just dropped 300.00 per person.....

 

Claudia

[tech]

It would be interesting to see the numbers of decreased bookings.

 

Are they decreased bookings of American citizens ?

 

If the answer is yes, I would suggest that the economy is finally making itself felt in the travel industry.

 

The cost of everything is going up, not wages.

 

Decreased bookings may reflect the fact that there is less disposable income due in part to higher fuel prices forcing even grocery items to jump.

 

In one case an item jumped from 1.25 to 1.50 in one week. Percent wise that is very large. It was a canned item.

 

No one likes to hear this but in just one small case our church food pantry cannot keep up with the increased requests for help. This is in an affluent county where you did have that great need a few years ago.

 

Just a thought. Not a scientific one. Just an observation.

[FoxyTerrier]

:eek: CCL Stock has taken a big drop today to hit a 52 week low. I suppose it would be good time to buy if you want to get future ship board credit.

 

If someone was to buy CCL and already have a HAL booking would they be able to get the ship board credit? Or would you have to wait for the next booking after the purchase?

[Randyk47]

I'd imagine cruise ships are much like hotels or other service based companies. There's a sunk cost of operations whether the cabin/room is occupied or not. However, unlike a hotel though you simply can't tell a part of the staff not to come to work that week....you're kind of stuck with the crew. Cruise ships then, at least in my way of thinking, are maybe even worse in terms of sunk costs. I'm sure there are costing models out there that do things like break even analysis so cruise lines know when they reach the point where cabin occupancy falls below operating costs and marginal profit margins. I'd guess they hold on like mad until they reach the point where they have to start cutting cabin prices to get more folks on the ship while having to deal with potentially rebating price reductions to the already booked passengers. That's probably one of the major reasons most "fire" or "flash" sales don't happen until within the 90-day final payment date so that only new bookings can qualify and only the entreprising passenger or TA is able to get some kind of accommodation out of the cruise line. I know that cruise fares are still way up for next year....to the point where we had to come down a couple of categories to get the same per diem costs as our February cruise this year. I'll be watching..... :)

[LAFFNVEGAS]

If someone was to buy CCL and already have a HAL booking would they be able to get the ship board credit? Or would you have to wait for the next booking after the purchase?

 

Joni, you should be able to buy today and still get the credit. If your brokerage account is done via the internet just print the page showing that you have 100 shares then fax it with you booking number and date of cruise to 800-298-3059 to request you ship board credit. I never send in my request till I have paid my final payment.

[rkacruiser]

I would not be too concerned about a drop in share price. Those of us who have been long term owners of CCL have been through this before and know the strength of this well run company.

 

I attended the Annual Meeting in Coral Gables last month and was very, very impressed with the way the meeting was run, with the directors and officers that I met, and with what I heard. (If I heard correctly: CCL has $8 billion of newbuilds on order and expect to pay for them all with cash flow!)

 

This is a financially strong company!

[Crazy]

I haven't been up on the net to check out the business news but would imagine that all stocks are down in this sector and I probably wouldn't worry about the drop. But, think I will research and call my broker who will probably tell me no but I always have a little money to play with and he will say okay.

[F11]

You guys are not very smart!! Cruise industry is hurting,overbuilt,weaker demand,US consumer is reeling now or will be next quarter,hence cruise prices are falling and will fall more. My TA tells me,the ships are calling her with huge discounts to break even. I said 1 month ago-cruise market will crash and is now slowly crashing. Fall prices will be down 25%.

[Krazy Kruizers]

We bought our stock years ago when it was selling for $12 a share.

[bruceh4]

There has been alot of speculation about what is wrong with Carnival and the cruise industry. Why not go straight to Carnival and hear it from them. You can do so by going to the following website and playing the conference call from yesterday. It runs about an hour, but basically what they tell you is that the Caribbean bookings are down about 6.5% for the fourth quarter. Europe and the rest of the world is good. The majority of the problem is due to fear of hurricanes. So expect pricing incentives for the Caribbean.

 

http://www.carnivalcorp.com/

[Randyk47]

F11's comments notwithstanding I don't think it's a big surprise to any of the regulars here that Caribbean cruise bookings are down for the early part of the Caribbean season which starts during the latter half of the hurricane season in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Of course, personally we're not cruising until next Spring so unless there's a general downturn in demand cruise lines cutting fares for this upcoming Fall doesn't do us much good. I'd add that with the recent news about cruising (i.e., fires, deaths, rapes, disappearances) almost certainly hasn't helped matters much. Considering the fairly substantial increase in fares from last year it's going to take more than a 25% rate cut to bring our cruise per diem rate back to the 2006 level. It's also going to have to happen before the end of the year, at least for us, since we'll be at final payment just before Christmas. But I see all this as somewhat cyclical and normal as the cruise industry and cruisers adjust to the news, more new ships, and increased operating costs so I'm just watching and waiting. I got a good rate, even if it's an increased rate over last year, and we're looking forward to a 14-day cruise which will be the longest we've ever gone on. If we get the chance to strike a better deal for our cabin or move up a couple of categories then that's all the better. In the meantime we're just pleased we have a cruise booked to some new places on a ship we've never been on before. :)

[sail7seas]

Take away 2 -3 weeks from HAL bookings due to the fact HAL ships will not return to the Caribbean until mid to late October. Those weeks of no Caribbean bookings certainly will be reflected in that fourth quarter Caribbean booking rate. No ships; no bookings.

[TAMU Dad]

Whats the full story on this cruise credit for CCL stock owners? Typically how much ,etc? Never heard of it before, please help with some details or where to go for said details.

Gary

[bruceh4]

Take away 2 -3 weeks from HAL bookings due to the fact HAL ships will not return to the Caribbean until mid to late October. Those weeks of no Caribbean bookings certainly will be reflected in that fourth quarter Caribbean booking rate. No ships; no bookings.

I think you should listen to the conference call. The executives at Carnival said overall bookings including ALL lines are down 6.5% in the fourth quarter. That includes the HAL ships and all other ships in the Carnival stable in the fourth quarter that will be returning to the Caribbean in mid Octomer. Last years hurricane season has scared off alot of people. In addition they addressed how higher gasoline prices are leaving people with less desposible income to take vacation's. In fact they also commented on how it is affecting their own employees cost of commuting to work.

[timbo89]

Another problem facing the cruise industry as whole is the fact that there are so many mammoth newbuilds coming on line. This causes a severe glut of available cabins, particularly in the Caribbean in the winter months, where most ships seem to spend those months. When bookings as a whole are off 6.5% from the prior year, and capacity is up over the prior year, it is a recipe for the potential of ships sailing at less than full capacity. Cruislines will then have to sacrifice fare revenue to generate onboard revenue.

 

This October/November/December/January might be a good time to look for last minute specials!!!!

 

I would anticipate more sailings in Australasia/South America, etc., as ships look to better their occupancy rates

[Crescoia]

It sure would be interesting if CCL ever broke out profits by cruise lines. Take HAL for instance, on the negative side (from a corporate point of view) you have smaller ships, and on the positive side you have what I suspect is a more affluent cruiser than on the other lines, with more potential on-board revenue. IMO Hal is one of the stronger fleets under the CCL umbrella, but it would be interesting to see exactly where it stands.

 

F11 - Increased capacity, high fuel prices, weaker demand, all true. On the other side you have a huge and reasonably affluent generation of boomers either nearing retirement or just entering retirement and many trying cruising for the first time. As they say, that is what makes a market.

[Grumpy1]

Another factor could be that people in the colder parts of the country fear that their heating bills this coming winter will be even higher than this year. The disposable income that could have been used to cruise might be needed to pay the utility bills. In periods of uncertainty... and I think we can say there are some uncertainties right now... people put off making commitments for vacations and other discretionary future spending.

[tlmlb]

overcapacity, homogeneous products, increased costs...

 

people as they recognize the homogeniety will tend to shop price which reduces yield, overcapacity impacts revenue negatively and of course increased costs...