Tropical Depression 16

[FitzLA]

So late in the season. Wow.

 

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200716.html

[Alexis]

Sure, I leave Friday for San Juan. :rolleyes:

I hope by then it is just a memory. :)

[FitzLA]

Sure, I leave Friday for San Juan. :rolleyes:

I hope by then it is just a memory. :)

 

I hope so too! I will pray to the hurricane gods for you!!!;)

[syndyj]

This is why I love CC, I am leaving on a flight to Miami in 5 hours, my cruise leaves tomorrow and I will be keeping an eye on this one. Thanks for the heads up! I would have never thought to check the forecast for storms.:)

[RichardK]

So late in the season. Wow.

 

Late, but certainly not unusual, since we're still in hurricane season, which "officially" ends November 1st.

 

At this point it looks like more of a rainmaker for Haiti and southern Cuba, rather than a damaging wind and/or high tide event.

[BillB48]

The "season" runs through the whole month of November.... still have to pray to the hurricane gods a little longer:D !

[ocalacruiser30]

I will be praying to the hurricane gods as well. I leave on Mariner on the 4th...by then, it should be gone (a whole 7 days :p ) I hope for everyone that Tropical Depression 16 just falls apart.

This is only my third cruise. Has anyone every have a cruise cancelled due to a tropical storm?

I figure that as long as I can leave on the ship...a rainy day on a ship is better than a good day at work...:p :p

So let's all just hope for the best....Think good thoughts..:)

[BillB48]

Did not cancel the cruise.... but it did not go where we had planned. We were scheduled for Eastern Caribbean in November a few years back and there was a tropical storm somewhere in our track. We sailed and then the anouncement was made that we were now going to do the Western Caribbean. One couple who we ate dinner with were doing a B2B wanting to get both the eastern and western grumbled, "same jokes, same menu, and now the same ports!"

[mydogs]

We leave for a TA on the Navigator on 11/5 all we need is to come home to see as much damage as we had from "Wilma". Hurricane season is officially over 11/30. So we will be optomistic and hope "Noel" ignores us here in SE FL.:rolleyes:

[Gracie115]

One of the posters here is wrong, hurricane season ends 11/30 not 11/1 and in 2005(the year of Wilma) there were storms right into December when they were using the Greek alphabet for names since they had run through the first list......

 

so it ain't over yet folks....

[webteach]

Very concerned- leaving on Nov 1 on Enchantment. Do NOT want to go to Nassau again- that would be my fear.

[FL_Cruiser64]

We leave for a TA on the Navigator on 11/5 all we need is to come home to see as much damage as we had from "Wilma". Hurricane season is officially over 11/30. So we will be optomistic and hope "Noel" ignores us here in SE FL.:rolleyes:

 

I am just south of you. If anything happens I keep you updated.

 

;)

[FL_Cruiser64]

Very concerned- leaving on Nov 1 on Enchantment. Do NOT want to go to Nassau again- that would be my fear.

 

The current forecast track keeps it WNW to NW track and then a turn back to the Bahamas. If that stays I doubt you be going to the Bahamas, more likely Western Caribbean (Cozumel, Belize etc).

:D

 

EDIT: I just looked at your cruise. It is actually quite interesting and fascinating what will happen. You are supposed to leave Ft Lauderdale on the 1st. At that point TD 16 is supposed to be just south or over southern Cuba and beginning his turn. On the 2nd you are in Key West and that sucker is near the Bahamas.So you are sailing south from the 1st to the 2nd and TD 16 is moving NE just east of you.

 

Quite interesting. I reckon if it stays that way you should be OK (with some high seas on the first leg of your cruise). Fascinating.

[RevSmith]

One of the safest places to be is on a ship when there is a hurricane in the Caribbean.

[SheriNtexas]

Very concerned- leaving on Nov 1 on Enchantment. Do NOT want to go to Nassau again- that would be my fear.

 

 

MY biggest fear would be the cruise being cancelled!!:eek: :eek: ;) :(

[SherriZ366]

The current forecast track keeps it WNW to NW track and then a turn back to the Bahamas. If that stays I doubt you be going to the Bahamas, more likely Western Caribbean (Cozumel, Belize etc).

:D

 

EDIT: I just looked at your cruise. It is actually quite interesting and fascinating what will happen. You are supposed to leave Ft Lauderdale on the 1st. At that point TD 16 is supposed to be just south or over southern Cuba and beginning his turn. On the 2nd you are in Key West and that sucker is near the Bahamas.So you are sailing south from the 1st to the 2nd and TD 16 is moving NE just east of you.

 

Quite interesting. I reckon if it stays that way you should be OK (with some high seas on the first leg of your cruise). Fascinating.

That's the way I read it now. But I'm staying tuned. We're on the same EN cruise.

[webteach]

MY biggest fear would be the cruise being cancelled!!:eek: :eek: ;) :(

True, all too true. I had a little stay in the ship's hospital 3 years ago when the waves were hitting the windows on Deck 4, so I am just hesitant about everything right now. Plus I am traveling with my mentally handicapped 53 year old brother and 78 year old mom- lots of baggage and responsibility.

[Alexis]

I will keep a very close watch on this one. :eek:

My biggest fear is I have to fly from Vegas on the Friday night red eye, then have an early Saturday morning 4 hour layover in Miami to get to San Juan.

If American can send me some other route, I will be extremely pleased.

I know now why I go down 2 1/2 days early. ;)

I don't sail until Monday night. ;)

[Loucat]

This storm has just been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Noel. Check out your weather sites. There does not seem to be a consensus of the storm's tracking right now. It apparently depends on the strength of a low pressure system over Florida :eek:

[DisneyJen]

Just talked to friends who are sailing this evening out of Port Canaveral on Mariner.

 

Their itinerary has already been changed ... instead of calling in Coco Cay tomorrow they will be calling in Puerto Rico.

 

They are just thrilled to be on their first cruise in the Caribbean with their extended family.

[jebl]

It is quite possible to get storms this late in the season. Hurricane Wilma hit us on Oct. 29, 2005. Here in SW Fla we are hoping the expected cool front will knock the stuffing out of Noel.

 

So far the weatherman has predicted a lot of rain for us but not a lot of wind. Oh well, we'll just have to wait and see.

[andy1962]

Tropical Storm NOEL Public Advisory

 

Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive

 

UPDATE 000WTNT31 KNHC 282043TCPAT1BULLETINTROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007...NOEL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OFTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD.AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HASBEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI.AT 500 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICALSTORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERNCUBA IN THE PROVINCES OF GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GUANTANAMO...AND HOLGUIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS AREPOSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLEINLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUEDBY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WASLOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. ACONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASEIN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THISTRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHWESTERNHAITI TONIGHT.REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THATMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING ISFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS996 MB...29.41 INCHES.ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND JAMAICA...WITHPOSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO DURINGTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASHFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N...71.9 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100PM EDT.$$FORECASTER KNABB

 

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/2007/noel.html?from=hurricane_central

[Marlin girl]

It is quite possible to get storms this late in the season. Hurricane Wilma hit us on Oct. 29, 2005. Here in SW Fla we are hoping the expected cool front will knock the stuffing out of Noel.

 

So far the weatherman has predicted a lot of rain for us but not a lot of wind. Oh well, we'll just have to wait and see.

 

 

Just a FYI, Hurricane Wilma made landfall Monday October 24 at approx 6:30 A.M.

[jebl]

Where in the world did I get the 29th????? Guess am getting old!!!

 

Thanks for the correction.

[andy1962]

wrong link my apologies