RCL Stocks Take Dive

[FinelyCruising]

This statement refers to debt / credit. I think this is exactly why RCI has been hit harder than Carnival.

 

 

I agree.

[lobster129]

With the stock prices tanking... we decided to go for it. We bought 100 shares of RCI stock today (@$14/share). We figure we are sure to get $300 of it back in OBC with the two cruises we have booked ($100 for the 7 day Caribbean and $200 for the 11 day Med cruise).

 

And we hope that prices are near the bottom and that we can have a little fun watching prices rise from the ashes.:D

 

Yes, we could be wrong...and certainly even the best financial wizards did not predict where the world markets are now. But like "Tin Cup" say... "sometimes you just have to go for it":p Can't be worse odds than the lottery!

 

Lobster129

[as41shots]

With the stock prices tanking... we decided to go for it. We bought 100 shares of RCI stock today (@$14/share). We figure we are sure to get $300 of it back in OBC with the two cruises we have booked ($100 for the 7 day Caribbean and $200 for the 11 day Med cruise).

 

Lobster129

 

I, too, figured what the heck and bought 100 shares at $13.37, and while I was at it bought 1000 shares of Ford at $2.21. My crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone's, but having watched the herd mentality for the last 30 years I started telling friends we are approaching a selling climax and the Dow would bottom out around 7600 - 8000. Also got into an argument with someone this summer on a political board when oil was at $145/barrel. He was going crazy about oil going to $200 per barrel, and I bet him $100 we'd see oil at $80 again before we'd see it at $200. I just wish I had put some real money where my mouth is, but I'm still recovering from the tech bubble lol. I was right about oil, and hope I am right about the bottom.

[Andy]

Sadly all of this will feed into the economy along with what is out there already. Crisis of confidence on a huge scale. I keep waiting for that bounce and for people to start picking up the cheap scraps, but not many have the nerve at present. I could go on, but it's not for here. Well, you did ask:o

 

Phil

 

Hi Phil !

 

As a Financial professional, I completely agree that nothing is trading on valuation, fundamentals, or logic for that matter. It's mainly a crisis of confidence everywhere. The last few weeks have been some of the craziest I have ever seen, and I am in the business for 30 years.

 

I'm not even thinking about making money over the coming weeks (though I surely wouldn't complain if it happened)... For everyone's sake, I just want the bleeding to stop. Let's hope our world leaders will find the right solutions.

 

I hope you are hanging in there, my friend. Please take care of yourself !

[AAAAmerican]

 

As a financial Professional, we make money on the way up as well down. The LONG and SHORT of it...

 

 

Never before has there been such a tumultuous week .

 

Yesterday 10/10/2008 A.D did set some other records.

 

 

Having TAX FREE Money Market Funds higher in the Interest Rate than TAXABLEs ...well lets say somewhat of oddity...

 

But I am getting a T E R of over 7 % now in TAX FREE Federal and State.

 

 

Buying LONG opportunities do not come that often as we may be seeing now.

 

Shipping is Interest Rate as well Fuel Rates Sensitive. Cruise Lines ...etc...

 

Even now GM is known to be in talks with Cerberus C.M., LLC. and a new larger GM may appear soon with the added vehicles lines.. or will this get the benz...

 

 

 

 

Are RCL : NYSE and CCl :NYSE going to become one? This year? Next year?

 

[FinelyCruising]

For everyone's sake, I just want the bleeding to stop.

 

Hi Andy - I think it's stop the hemmoraging....;)

[cruise kitty]

Picked up 25 shares @$15 and another 25 at $12.93, I am hoping by the end of next week to have my 100 share for next November's TA on the solstice. We got a great deal on a CC cabin back in May, but I'm waiting on final payment to see if they drop the prices like they did on this November's cruises. We sold all our stock holdings early last spring to put some cash into our business, at the time we were so upset, but looking back I say thank God. We are buying back now for pennies on the dollar, but I'm so sorry for people who are ready to retire and now cannot. If you're panicking and ready to sell, just remember what George Bailey said in it's a wonderful life; "Potter's not selling, Potter's buying!"

[Bobblsc]

I'm sorry, but your definition of recession is seriously outdated. No reasonable person uses that definition anymore. Wikipedia gives a much more accurate definition of the recession that actually started last December. Don't worry, though, because historians will eventually describe the period we're currently experiencing as a depression (but not necessarily a Great Depression), when all is said and done.

 

Wikipedia:

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1] A sustained recession may become a depression.

 

As for RCL stock. I suggested on these boards, just a few months ago, that the stock would bottom out at closer to $10 than to $20, and that was when it was just below $20. Most people tended to attack and flame my position about the travel and leisure industry getting hammered, but now it seems to have become common knowledge.

 

Hmm! It's interesting that those of us who are prescient enough (really it's just a matter of paying attention), to accurately see what's going to happen get toasted until the event actually takes place.

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

 

P.S. Bob: I do believe that much of what you say is accurate, but not with regard to a recession.

 

From NBER:

"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

 

NBER apparently has developed a more nuanced version, but you cannot be serious in saying "No reasonable person uses that definition anymore." That definition is used by many, but I refuse to go the the trouble of determining specific names. "Lasting more than a few months" and the interpretation of the economic activities lacks specificity, and thus leaves too much to individual whims. "Lasting more than a few months" certainly implies more than three months, i.e. one quarter. I have not seen third quarter data, and I would guess they will show a downturn, but until those data do we are still in an expansion.

 

I would love to discuss this more, but I have a more important thing to do. That is to watch the Missouri Tigers beat up on Oklahoma State. The game starts at 7:00 pm Central Time.

 

I am glad that you agree with much of what I wrote.

 

Bob :rolleyes:

[bobbyleduck]

From NBER:

"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades."

 

NBER apparently has developed a more nuanced version, but you cannot be serious in saying "No reasonable person uses that definition anymore." That definition is used by many, but I refuse to go the the trouble of determining specific names. "Lasting more than a few months" and the interpretation of the economic activities lacks specificity, and thus leaves too much to individual whims. "Lasting more than a few months" certainly implies more than three months, i.e. one quarter. I have not seen third quarter data, and I would guess they will show a downturn, but until those data do we are still in an expansion.

 

I would love to discuss this more, but I have a more important thing to do. That is to watch the Missouri Tigers beat up on Oklahoma State. The game starts at 7:00 pm Central Time.

 

I am glad that you agree with much of what I wrote.

 

Bob :rolleyes:

 

I completely agree with the recession definition you quote above, except for one significant omission and that is inflation. If inflation exceeds growth of GDP, then true GDP is negative. Add in a reduction of real wages to an inflation that exceeds GDP and you get a real sense of a recession. If all of that lasts for a couple of years then you get a depression.

 

As for that football game. Sorry about the outcome. The Ducks bounced back from the USC debacle to down the Bruins, in spite of a phantom pass interference call on a play where Oregon intercepted a pass in the end zone.

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

 

P.S. Now, what are we likely to see for RCL stock when the market opens tomorrow? It was less than $12.80 a share at one point Friday, and even though the market bounced back from the extreme low on Friday, it did end lower. Oh, what a nasty week in the stock market!

[bobbyleduck]

I'm sorry, but your definition of recession is seriously outdated. No reasonable person uses that definition anymore. Wikipedia gives a much more accurate definition of the recession that actually started last December. Don't worry, though, because historians will eventually describe the period we're currently experiencing as a depression (but not necessarily a Great Depression), when all is said and done.

 

Wikipedia:

A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The U.S. based National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."[1] A sustained recession may become a depression.

 

As for RCL stock. I suggested on these boards, just a few months ago, that the stock would bottom out at closer to $10 than to $20, and that was when it was just below $20. Most people tended to attack and flame my position about the travel and leisure industry getting hammered, but now it seems to have become common knowledge.

 

Hmm! It's interesting that those of us who are prescient enough (really it's just a matter of paying attention), to accurately see what's going to happen get toasted until the event actually takes place.

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

 

P.S. Bob: I do believe that much of what you say is accurate, but not with regard to a recession.

 

I had to bring back this post because today is the day that the NBER finally declared that we are in the recession that I've been talking about for months. The post quoted above actually names the start of the current recession as December 2007, and that is exactly what the NBER reported today. Here is a quote from the report:

 

 

"The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months."

[Karynanne]

I had to bring back this post because today is the day that the NBER finally declared that we are in the recession that I've been talking about for months. The post quoted above actually names the start of the current recession as December 2007, and that is exactly what the NBER reported today. Here is a quote from the report:

 

 

"The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months."

 

 

Thank you for being the bearer of such good tidings. Being this is a cruise board, and most of us are aware of the country's economic situation, I don't an "I told you so" is warranted.

[richsea]

Please don't fall off that high horse of yours.

[floridatravelersforlife]

I like this CC board because you can escape reality for a while and then someone has to remind us what some idiots do for a meaningless living in Washington and it ruins my day.

 

Let's keep it to cruising. We are all aware what is brewing in the real world.

[bobbyleduck]

I find it interesting that some of you decided to open a thread that you weren't interested in, just so you could flame me. Thank you very much. I suffered much indignity earlier, because so many people disagreed with what I thought was an obvious fact. So, thank you again for your kind words.Happy cruising to all!Bob

[Karynanne]

I find it interesting that some of you decided to open a thread that you weren't interested in, just so you could flame me. Thank you very much. I suffered much indignity earlier, because so many people disagreed with what I thought was an obvious fact. So, thank you again for your kind words.Happy cruising to all!Bob

 

It's not that we disagree with you...but for quite a few of us, cruising is an escape from the realities of everyday living. This board is for "cruising" information. We can gather our economic information from other various sites.

[Gonzo70]

It's not that we disagree with you...but for quite a few of us, cruising is an escape from the realities of everyday living. This board is for "cruising" information. We can gather our economic information from other various sites.

 

I do have to also ask why you would click on this thread (that is clearly labelled to be about the cruise line stock) if you are trying to avoid/escape such content? There have been several threads about RCL and CCL stock on various Cruise Critic boards as it is an area of interest to a lot of people on this site and it is relevant to cruising. It is easy to avoid such threads if you dislike them.

[richsea]

It's not the subject matter, but the know it all attitude of some who look down on the "less informed".

[Karynanne]

It's not the subject matter, but the know it all attitude of some who look down on the "less informed".

 

Precisely...

[bobbyleduck]

Precisely...

 

I would have to guess that neither of you have ever been flamed on this board, or you would realize that I tried to inform people of a perceived and well thought out truth, only to be attacked by people claiming to "know it all." I gave reasoned arguments, and well-researched facts, only to be told I didn't know what I was talking about.

 

Now, I bring this up, because you both seem to think that it is OK to continue to attack me, now not based on the truths I offered, but because I have chosen to say, "I told you so."

 

It doesn't matter why you attack, only that you choose to attack.

 

The facts are these: We are in a recession that has the potential of becoming a depression. Not necessarily a "Great Depression," but a depression or a much more lengthy recession than others thought. You know the others, the ones who said we aren't in a recession as early as a month ago.

 

Why bring it up on this board? Because the cruise industry has participated in and been caught-up in the recession, and I am a fan of cruising (especially with Celebrity).

 

It is great that some people have enough money to continue cruising in the face of such a downturn in the economy, but it would be equally nice if those who are able to cruise during this recession, could also help direct people who aren't doing so well. Afterall, you're the fortunate ones and if you help show the way, then others may follow.

 

We have the opportunity to be leaders, and show people a new path to prosperity. We have the opportunity, but that doesn't mean that all will choose to accept the responsibility.

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

 

P.S. I choose to help others through this dark time. Is anyone on this board with me?

[benbess]

Hi Bobbyleduck:

 

Sorry things have gotten a bit tense. I don't think they should at all!

 

I wanted to ask a question about something else entirely. I noticed you took a transatlantic a year ago or so. How was that? How do X ships handle the waves?

 

I saw a video of a cruise ship in a storm that looked scary. But there are some great rates sometimes on those transatlantic cruises. If you've already posted a review, please let me know where to find it.

 

Thanks very much, Ben

[Karynanne]

Bobby, I am sorry if you feel that I have attacked or flamed you in any way. It was not my intent.

 

IMHO I do not feel that this forum was designed for discussing one's financial situation...or to give financial advice either.

 

 

 

This is just my opinion...and I may be way off base on this one.

[bobbyleduck]

Hi Bobbyleduck:

 

Sorry things have gotten a bit tense. I don't think they should at all!

 

I wanted to ask a question about something else entirely. I noticed you took a transatlantic a year ago or so. How was that? How do X ships handle the waves?

 

I saw a video of a cruise ship in a storm that looked scary. But there are some great rates sometimes on those transatlantic cruises. If you've already posted a review, please let me know where to find it.

 

Thanks very much, Ben

 

Dear Ben:

 

Thank you for your concern, but sometimes that's just the way it goes. As for the review, yes, I wrote one, and here it is:

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=36053

 

There are two other reviews by friends who were aboard the same cruise, and here they are:

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=36049

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=35941

 

Dear Karynanne:

 

Regarding any misunderstanding, don't concern yourself with it. As for what is appropriate on the board regarding RCL stock, fuel surcharges (now eliminated according to another thread), airfare, recession/depression and its affect on cruising, it would appear that we may just have to agree to disagree. I do, however, believe that people who aren't interested can pass over a thread that doesn't interest them without taking a shot at those who have posted. But, as always:

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

[benbess]

Dear Ben:

 

Thank you for your concern, but sometimes that's just the way it goes. As for the review, yes, I wrote one, and here it is:

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=36053

 

There are two other reviews by friends who were aboard the same cruise, and here they are:

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=36049

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/memberreviews/memberreview.cfm?EntryID=35941

 

Dear Karynanne:

 

Regarding any misunderstanding, don't concern yourself with it. As for what is appropriate on the board regarding RCL stock, fuel surcharges (now eliminated according to another thread), airfare, recession/depression and its affect on cruising, it would appear that we may just have to agree to disagree. I do, however, believe that people who aren't interested can pass over a thread that doesn't interest them without taking a shot at those who have posted. But, as always:

 

Happy cruising to all!

 

Bob

 

Great reviews! Many thanks...

 

Best, Ben