Middle east Situation

A little geography goes a long way :). The main area of concern (in my little mind) is the very narrow strait (Mandeb strait) as ships pass from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden. This narrow area (less than 20 miles) is very close to Yeman, which is a country in the midst of a civil war. If this war has a bad outcome than all traffic moving in and out of Suez would be at potential risk. While it is hard to imagine countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt allowing anything to threaten the Mandeb Strait, it will be an area of concern as long as there is war in Yeman. In the past one would have expected the US to do whatever it takes to keep this strait free of risk, but given the current stance of the USA we can no longer be depended on to protect anything in the Middle East.

Hank

A little geography goes a long way :). The main area of concern (in my little mind) is the very narrow strait (Mandeb strait) as ships pass from the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden. This narrow area (less than 20 miles) is very close to Yeman, which is a country in the midst of a civil war. If this war has a bad outcome than all traffic moving in and out of Suez would be at potential risk. While it is hard to imagine countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt allowing anything to threaten the Mandeb Strait, it will be an area of concern as long as there is war in Yeman. In the past one would have expected the US to do whatever it takes to keep this strait free of risk, but given the current stance of the USA we can no longer be depended on to protect anything in the Middle East.

 

Hank

While the current UN convoy system in the Gulf of Aden starts outside the Straits of bab el Mandeb (point "A"), there is sufficient naval forces there to ensure that piracy and terrorism isn't a major concern.

I would not want to be that close to Yemen trying to transit the Suez Canal at this time. I wouldn't consider such a voyage.

 

Didn't the Saudi's start bombing Yemen this week? :eek::

Not my idea of a fun vacation.

We all have different tolerance and for the 'sure I'd go crowd' to be negative to the 'no way I'd go crowd' seems a bit insensitive and intolerant of others' opinions.

 

I applaud those who are fearless or willing to take more than moderate risk. I am not in that group but maybe because I've seen and done most of the exciting and adventurous travel I desire. My travel desires now that I have lost my very dear DH are more relaxing and cautious journeys and I am not the only one who has seen and done and is satisfied with taking fewer risks, these days. In the days when we did 'heavy duty travel' and saw much of the world, travel was quite different. Of course, there has always been risk but not the hot bed the world is today.

 

For the young 'uns,,,,,,,,, IF you are really lucky, you will grow old one day and some of you will see a different perspective. The only alternative to growing old is to not have any more birthdays.

 

For those who will sail the Suez Canal this summer, PLEASE come back and tell us about your adventures. Those of us who love travel will be eager to hear all about it.

 

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If you are willing to do something non-cruise, may I suggest AdventureWomen. Small groups of mature women going to some amazing places in the US and around the world. I've done a few with them (including Egypt and Jordan). The next trip I'd love to do with Susan and her company is a barge vacation on one of the rivers in France. It sounds sooooo relaxing!!!

Now, I will admit that its been several years since my last Suez transit, that being during the firs/second Gulf war. Even during times of active war, there were no military presence in the canal whatsoever. I think you are mistaking the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aden, where there are US warships stationed (Gulf of Suez) and escorts (Gulf of Aden) for the canal itself. The reason ships are convoyed in the canal is because traffic is only one way, and the northbound and southbound convoys need to meet in the lakes to allow passage. That is not to say that the Egyptian military is not near at hand on shore or at airbases, but there was no overt military escorting of ships.

It is my understanding that in 2003-4, Mubarak decided, in conjunction with the GCC (Gulf Coast Council), the US and Nato that more security was needed to ensure the Canal was not impacted ever if it could possibly be avoided. Info from all the military I have contact with state Egypt's navy is the prime military force actually escorting convoys through the Suez. The Bahranian and Kuwaiti Navy's also participate in escorting the convoys as part of their training exercises.

Friends that are working at SPOD (Seaport of Debarkation) and KNB (Kuwait Naval Base) in Kuwait are reporting that two large Kuwaiti ships left the other day with a US escort contingent headed for the Suez. The Arab states involved in the Yemen situation even tagged their operation almost as a continuing joint terrorism operation, showing great solidarity to the West. It is called Operation Decisive Storm.

It is my understanding that in 2003-4, Mubarak decided, in conjunction with the GCC (Gulf Coast Council), the US and Nato that more security was needed to ensure the Canal was not impacted ever if it could possibly be avoided. Info from all the military I have contact with state Egypt's navy is the prime military force actually escorting convoys through the Suez. The Bahranian and Kuwaiti Navy's also participate in escorting the convoys as part of their training exercises.

 

Friends that are working at SPOD (Seaport of Debarkation) and KNB (Kuwait Naval Base) in Kuwait are reporting that two large Kuwaiti ships left the other day with a US escort contingent headed for the Suez. The Arab states involved in the Yemen situation even tagged their operation almost as a continuing joint terrorism operation, showing great solidarity to the West. It is called Operation Decisive Storm.

Again, I think that all of what you describe is for the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Suez. I think that escorts in Gulf of Suez is optional (and there are lots of naval vessels on station in the Gulf of Suez), while convoying in the Gulf of Aden is prescribed. Many naval vessels of many countries transit the canal on their way to/from duty stations, but these ships are placed in convoy by speed and type, just like all ships, and not as convoy "escorts".

Given the physical nature of the canal, I don't think that naval escorting would be that effective, since there is almost no place where anything above a very small gunboat could turn around to assist a ship further back up the convoy. Mubarak did increase the army presence along the length of the canal, and these outposts are clearly visible while transiting. Heck, a good grenade launcher will reach from one side of the canal to the other, why do you need a naval vessel? I do know that Egypt's navy is stationed at Port Said, Port Suez, and in the Great Bitter Lake, but again, I don't believe they are actively escorting the 2 southbound and 1 northbound daily convoys. Just based on what I know from other mariners.

Again, I think that all of what you describe is for the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Suez. I think that escorts in Gulf of Suez is optional (and there are lots of naval vessels on station in the Gulf of Suez), while convoying in the Gulf of Aden is prescribed. Many naval vessels of many countries transit the canal on their way to/from duty stations, but these ships are placed in convoy by speed and type, just like all ships, and not as convoy "escorts".

 

Given the physical nature of the canal, I don't think that naval escorting would be that effective, since there is almost no place where anything above a very small gunboat could turn around to assist a ship further back up the convoy. Mubarak did increase the army presence along the length of the canal, and these outposts are clearly visible while transiting. Heck, a good grenade launcher will reach from one side of the canal to the other, why do you need a naval vessel? I do know that Egypt's navy is stationed at Port Said, Port Suez, and in the Great Bitter Lake, but again, I don't believe they are actively escorting the 2 southbound and 1 northbound daily convoys. Just based on what I know from other mariners.

That Egypt is going to increase security again for Suez .On a website i think it was called Port News.The Egyptian economy relies on billions of dollars it receives from the canal use.

That Egypt is going to increase security again for Suez .On a website i think it was called Port News.The Egyptian economy relies on billions of dollars it receives from the canal use.

Yes, the canal is the single largest employer and aspect of their economy. But whether security would be better served by adding military personnel onboard each ship to go along with the line handlers, and increasing military personnel along the canal and overflights, or by having naval vessels escort the ships is the question. Since Egypt's military controls the entire length of the canal, I don't think naval vessels are the answer, but the equivalents of the USCG Sea Marshals would be a better, cheaper, and more effective deterrent.

If you are willing to do something non-cruise, may I suggest AdventureWomen. Small groups of mature women going to some amazing places in the US and around the world. I've done a few with them (including Egypt and Jordan). The next trip I'd love to do with Susan and her company is a barge vacation on one of the rivers in France. It sounds sooooo relaxing!!!

It is kind of you to make this suggestion. Thank you. :) I'm not sure that is exactly the thing for me but I'll keep it in mind.

While the current UN convoy system in the Gulf of Aden starts outside the Straits of bab el Mandeb (point "A"), there is sufficient naval forces there to ensure that piracy and terrorism isn't a major concern.

While I do tend to agree with you, my prior military experience does also give me some degree of informed skepticism. While the various Naval forces can do a good job protecting ships from piracy, it becomes an entirely different situation if bad players get control of nearby land. The narrow passage makes it very vulnerable to any of several relatively simple land to sea missiles. With many ships operating in channels within a few miles of land it becomes very difficult to provide full protection. We can hope that the various rebel forces do not get control of the Yemeni coast line, but we have no degree of confidence in the US doing anything proactive. This administration seems to be reactive (they only know what they read in the newspapers) and this guy fears it might take some kind of disaster to shake some key folks out of their malaise.

Would we book a cruise through the Suez? Yes, because DW and I are somewhat adventurous and do have some faith that the cruise lines will act in the interests of our safety. But I would also admit that an administration that told us a few months ago what a great success our efforts were in Yemen might not have a clue as to the reality on the ground.

Hank

While I do tend to agree with you, my prior military experience does also give me some degree of informed skepticism. While the various Naval forces can do a good job protecting ships from piracy, it becomes an entirely different situation if bad players get control of nearby land. The narrow passage makes it very vulnerable to any of several relatively simple land to sea missiles. With many ships operating in channels within a few miles of land it becomes very difficult to provide full protection. We can hope that the various rebel forces do not get control of the Yemeni coast line, but we have no degree of confidence in the US doing anything proactive. This administration seems to be reactive (they only know what they read in the newspapers) and this guy fears it might take some kind of disaster to shake some key folks out of their malaise.

 

Would we book a cruise through the Suez? Yes, because DW and I are somewhat adventurous and do have some faith that the cruise lines will act in the interests of our safety. But I would also admit that an administration that told us a few months ago what a great success our efforts were in Yemen might not have a clue as to the reality on the ground.

 

Hank

Won't debate politics with you here. But "full protection" anywhere is a pipe dream, given today's realities where someone with a $40 green laser can potentially bring down an airliner approaching any city in the US.

Won't debate politics with you here. But "full protection" anywhere is a pipe dream, given today's realities where someone with a $40 green laser can potentially bring down an airliner approaching any city in the US.

I guess one could recall the Seabourn ship that was hit by at least 3 RPG rounds back in 2005 (this happened off Somalia). There is risk attached to any activity and everyone (and cruise ship companies) must find their own level of tolerance...or spirit of adventure.

Hank

That is also can be dangerous on land.That is much closer to home.

I will take my chances.This will be my 24 th with Princess I trust them:)

No way...At this time, I would not go to anywhere in that region. There are PLENTY of things to see elsewhere in the world. I'm not going to someplace where I KNOW i'm a target. The cruise line can think it's "safe" all they want....I know it's NOT safe for Americans.

When you say you know it is not safe, I wonder how you know that? I haven't really paid that much attention to the region but I don't recall any stories about American tourists being targeted or harmed. We spent a few weeks on our own in Israel a year ago but that is the closest I have been to that general region in a while. Morocco and Tunisia are definitely on my to-do list.

Stan

When you say you know it is not safe, I wonder how you know that? I haven't really paid that much attention to the region but I don't recall any stories about American tourists being targeted or harmed.

Stan

Death To America. The Great Satan (i.e. USA). CIA spies. Kill infidels. Blah blah blah. Bet you've heard all these before coming out of that region.

Death To America. The Great Satan (i.e. USA). CIA spies. Kill infidels. Blah blah blah. Bet you've heard all these before coming out of that region.

For decades.

And how many American tourists have died there in that time, out of how many have visited?

Death To America. The Great Satan (i.e. USA). CIA spies. Kill infidels. Blah blah blah. Bet you've heard all these before coming out of that region.

While not to be blase about the situation, until you have actually been there whether as a tourist or an expat working overseas, you really don't know the situation.

As much time as I have spent working in the Middle East, I turned down a logistics contract to go back to Iraq for the State Dept. Just too dangerous IMHO even with all the heavily armed security contractors that would have escorted me any place I needed to go. But I am going into Afghanistan within the next 4 months. And that means transiting through Dubai or Kuwait to get there.

Am I afraid? Cautious and prepared as I can be. Actually afraid-NO. I actually believe I have a larger chance of getting killed in a suicide bombing or something like that in Europe or the USA.

It is very confusing in the Middle East right now. We are backing the Sunni's who are fighting Iran in Yemen. We are backing the Shia (Iran) fighting ISIS in Iraq where we pushed to form a Shia government after years of Sunni government (Saddam Hussein government). IMHO, we should be sending everything we can to the Peshmerga in Kurdistan because they are basically neutral in the religion war-they hate both the Sunni and Shia.

And to make matters even more confusing, Iran hates us and we are trying to sign some kind of wacko nuke deal right now. And that doesn't count all the Islamic Fundamentalist splinter groups who so badly want to send the Western World back to the 15th century.

But Saudi, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, etc. etc all realize they need stability in the region or their own countries are very much in danger. So they will do what they need to do (FINALLY) to protect their own interests. To me, that means they will keep the Suez open at all costs and will protect their borders and tourism industries. Since the military retook control of Egypt, the kidnappings for ransom and other horrible things that were happening in the Sinai have just about stopped.

As I posted previously, I sure wouldn't be flying into Damascus, Tripoli, Baghdad or Saana right now. But the rest of the Middle East is fairly safe and the countries involved KNOW they must keep both their citizens and visitors safe or they face the wrath of the world.

For decades.

 

And how many American tourists have died there in that time, out of how many have visited?

I have done lots of business (and some personal) travel over the last 8-9 years in the Middle East and North Africa and I can assure you that I have been murdered zero times.

I've never felt like a target. And that includes being in Cairo during the start of the revolt in 2011 (and being stuck there for a while. It was inconvenient, but not dangerous)...that includes being in places like Niger, southern Turkey (within sight of the Iraqi borderlands), and Saudi Arabia. And other "safer" places like Morocco, UAE, Lebanon and Oman.

(I use "safer" because they've all felt very safe to me. Never had concerns)

Would you book a cruise which travels via Suez Canal?

With the current situation in Yemen and the fact that they are fighting in the city in Yemen at the entry (exit) point to the Straight I would not book a cruise which travels via Suez Canal. I love cruises because I can totally unwind from work and from politics. If there is a stop on the cruise that made me uncomfortable I would not book it. I would save the itinerary for another year.

As I posted previously, I sure wouldn't be flying into Damascus, Tripoli, Baghdad or Saana right now. But the rest of the Middle East is fairly safe and the countries involved KNOW they must keep both their citizens and visitors safe or they face the wrath of the world.

Yes, I agree 100%. I would certainly avoid flying in to those four cities. But, I wouldn't have any issue with Casablanca, Cairo, Tunis, Riyadh, Beirut, Amman, Muscat, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Manama, Doha, Erbil...even Tehran or Algiers.

This was sent to me yesterday via email from a CC member. Thank you, even though you neglected to sign your name.

Don't know how true it is but everything sounds just like all my contacts in the Middle East have stated. And one of them was on his 6 month leave about 3 months ago and met his family in Dubai and they sailed around the Arabian peninsula, through the Suez and on to Italy. It was on a German ship. The only problem he had was everyone spoke German (well, DUH) and they had some language problems. But like he said, he hears Arabic all day long which is a complicated language, so German wasn't so bad. He somehow managed to get all the booze he wanted.

They had a great time and he said he felt it was safe even with his two kids along. He is a security contractor in Iraq, so he is probably a little more brave than most but he still took his two kids. I don't think he would have done it if he didn't feel it was safe for his kids (teenagers).

"When you go through the Suez Canal, the Gulf of Suez and into the Red Sea the ship will be part of a convoy protected by the Egyptian navy.

There will be no passengers outside (including on balconies) from dusk to dawn. All windows will have curtains drawn. Places like the gym will be closed at dusk so their lights can be turned off. There will be spotters port and starboard in addition to the usual close watch of fore and aft. There will also be security precautions that will not be obvious to passengers.

There will likely be a meeting or a drill of what to do in the remote chance that a security problem would develop."

Yes, I agree 100%. I would certainly avoid flying in to those four cities. But, I wouldn't have any issue with Casablanca, Cairo, Tunis, Riyadh, Beirut, Amman, Muscat, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, Manama, Doha, Erbil...even Tehran or Algiers.

You can go to Tehran. Not me. I would forget to put on the hijab and get arrested.

If you are worried about going to certain countries, that's your instincts telling you not to go. Good luck.