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Everything posted by PelicanBill

  1. It's nothing so far! It is actually the remnants of Odette which may regain strength when it reaches warmer gulf stream water - further away from the coast.
  2. Tropical storm Rose formed, but is in the middle of nowhere and not very strong, so I am not creating a separate thread. Odd disturbance in the north Atlantic with 30% chance. And another following exactly as Peter did, 70% chance over 5 days, so we will be watching this one most carefully.
  3. Peter still on same track but weaker, dropping to a depression before reaching Bermuda.
  4. Yes but she always will belong to New York.
  5. VHF Harbor Control Radio, a short time ago: "Welcome home, Breakaway"
  6. Although hurricane hunters found a center further south and west than expected, it is still expected to steer clear of the Antilles. But could be an issue for Bermuda next weekend.
  7. We have Peter and Depression 17 now. Peter gets a separate thread. 17 not expected to go anywhere interesting.
  8. Thanks @mking8288 and @JIMESOPUS ! I sometimes splurge for Marinetraffic satellite for one ship when I have an upcoming cruise. Did not realize CM gave up some info when out of shore range. And thanks for the nod on my weather work!
  9. I am surprised Breakaway did not divert south around Odette. That's gotta be a rough ride. @mking8288 What is that you used to get her position? Is it a subscription?
  10. Big change today! Odette formed. The one that seemed likely, then less likely, is likely again to be Paul soon at 90%. And there's the orange one at 40% but not much threat there. Odette is expected to head east-northeast and won't be much of an issue. Soon-to-be-Paul will skirt the islands and recurve, and could be an issue for Bermuda, but not forecast to gain much strength. Odette could delay Breakway's much anticipated arrival to New York City (tomorrow). She is probably diverting more south on her route and could need an extra day or two.
  11. Surprising, but the wave heading toward the islands has dropped to 70% and angled just enough NW to reduce risk to the islands. The East Coast area is also 70% and that new yellow one is 20%.
  12. Tracking several disturbances. 70% near the coast could be an issue for areas already soaked (just as the south is experiencing now). The new yellow is 20% chance, but the one to watch is that 90% heading steady toward the islands.
  13. Well Cruise Critic seems more cooperative today. These are at 60% and 90% respectively. The red one is 95L and quite possible to reach Category 2 strength and sustain as a storm all the way to the islands so need to watch carefully. The question will be if any upper-level low and dry air circulation develops that would tear it apart. The orange one has no model runs yet so I have nothing to look at.
  14. Nicholas made Category 1 by landfall and news reports this morning show a bit of a mess across Texas. It's moving very slowly along the coast and threatens to bring a lot of rain to already-drenched Louisiana now.
  15. I have been unable to post all day due to CC Forum issues! Earlier: Nicholas is not strong, and is described as "erratic," but the rainfall potential is the worrisome aspect of this storm. I can't upload pictures right now, so here is a link. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/115300.shtml?rainqpf#contents 6-10 inches for the coast and Houston, more for some areas. We've seen deep water in Houston and Galveston for this kind of rain before. Now: It's pretty strong for a tropical storm and everything is shutting down in Houston. Galveston is bracing.
  16. I was away yesterday but the tropics won't allow me a break! And Cruise Critic is being cranky and won't allow me to add a picture right now. So the Caribbean disturbance is now Tropical Storm Nicholas and going to drop a lot of water on southeast Texas including Galveston and Houston. That might cause issues for a couple cruise itineraries. A new disturbance has a 60% chance to develop north of the Bahamas and head toward the mid-Atlantic coast, but probably stay offshore. A new wave coming off Africa has an 80% chance, and if conditions stay favorite it will threaten the islands later in the week.
  17. I've been on Breakaway many times and she often does 20knots and many of my itineraries depended on 20 knots between ports. However, 20 knots in open Atlantic water gets impossibly rough in seas over 12-15'. We slowed on two occasions and were late arriving.
  18. Quite sure it is the same as everything else. People at lower levels in government know the right thing to do and recommend it. Political appointees in charge at highest levels choose not to act, reflecting the climate of being very favorable to businesses rather than fair to consumers.
  19. When have you ever seen a hurricane headline like this?
  20. And you thought we were done with Larry... when have you ever heard this?
  21. This is Invest 94L. Likely headed to Texas. Even though a 70% chance to become a tropical storm, it will be weak it seems. 93L off Africa has a 50% chance, heading due west, so should not interfere with the Breakaway transatlantic to NYC underway.
  22. Florida is too far south. I think the media overblew the idea as it was, but it would have been mostly the northeast coasts and maybe some down the NJ and VA areas. Really, only Bermuda was going to get really rough surf.
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