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PelicanBill

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Everything posted by PelicanBill

  1. Sam is stronger today at 130 mph and remaining strong several more days as it passes Bermuda, which looks to be well east now. The main impact will be very high surf - 20-25'. Even the east coast of the USA will be seeing 10-15' surf. CC is not letting me upload an image.
  2. Although we have the week to go, it's a positive sign that Sam's strength appears to have peaked, and the path is now curving well east of Bermuda.
  3. Now they are 50%, 80%, 80%. Going to be studying conditions for the one just below Sam, as the path is aimed much more toward the islands than the last few which deflected to the NE.
  4. Models suggest strong category 3 for 5 days and more, which should put Bermuda on high alert.
  5. Goodness. Later on Sunday and look what's happening. Everybody is upgraded. Now, in order from upper left to lower right, 50%, 70%, 70%.
  6. Sam looks dangerous. Remains category 4 for a couple days and Category 3 through Friday. Heading toward Bermuda which could disrupt a few cruises next weekend. Still possible to threaten port calls in St. Maarten or area mid-week, but is staying pretty well NE of the islands.
  7. Sunday update. The upper one is 20%, the lower yellow one is 30%, and the orange one is 60% chance to develop over 5 days.
  8. Teresa formed and will fade right quick. Sam wil be category 3 at least through Thursday. Timing to Bermuda area uncertain.
  9. @Duke95 LOL YUP Teresa will fade into a depression fast. Sam will be a Cat 3 through Thursday but a slow mover. Timing to Bermuda area hard to read.
  10. This chart shows % chance of tropical storm force winds within 5 days. If we project the path as forecast, it will be close but just below that for St. Maarten. Fingers crossed.
  11. I was about to research ships in those areas. St. Maarten is iffy no matter what. It's awful close for a ship to sail. We shall see.
  12. No change really. Expected to be Category 3 by tomorrow 5pm EDT. Path is very close to Bermuda. Worried for the first 2 sailings of NCL Breakaway from NYC to Bermuda. In 5 days it is forecast to be Category 3 but still located east of the Turks & Caicos, so pretty far from Bermuda. So there is time for her to get in to Bermuda, but she may be chased away early as Sam approaches. I think the timing works for Breakaway's days before and after turnaround in NYC so the storm will have passed by and be well away before returning for the second visit.
  13. Oh boy the Atlantic is busy. Other than Sam, a growing threat, the remnants of Odette are fading (northern yellow) but a new disturbance is aimed at Maine and Labrador... 40%. and a new one coming off Africa at 40%.
  14. Great! good luck with all the red tape. Wish I was going too! There is a risk that Sam could affect Bermuda starting around a week from tomorrow. Hope it steers clear.
  15. @JamieLogical are you still a go in 3 days? Watching "Sam" with concern.
  16. There was a dry and wet dock last summer but we think only for the stack scrubber installation.
  17. Keep in mind after the long break we are all guessing at what the operations will be now. On most of my 5 Breakaway sailings, Moderno was available as an overflow buffet breakfast, and also sometimes a lunch buffet with different themes (sea days only)
  18. There is a lot of variance in the track models. But intensity shows category 2 for sure and forecasts have decided on category 3 in 2 days. Forecast track misses the islands but Bermuda is right in it's sights.
  19. Sam is looking to grow into a dangerous major hurricane. It quickly went from disturbance to tropical storm today and to grow to a major hurricane (category 3) in just two more days.
  20. Starting a thread for Sam. The Northern disturbance still at 60%, the new one at 20% chance over 5 days.
  21. Well Pete and Rose have degraded to depressions, but the two areas are still 50% and 90% chance so we're watching that one heading toward the islands still.
  22. (yesterday) Peter is disorganized and likely to fade soon, and the threat to Bermuda is less based on that and more curve in the track.
  23. The northern disturbance (remnants of Odette) is in a race to re-form before conditions get hostile late in the week. It has only a 40% chance over 5 days. The other one, however, is up to 90% chance in 5 days and the lesser Antilles need to prepare. The path is looking to be just like Peter and curve NNW and miss the islands, we hope, but intensity is looking stronger than Peter, predicted to be Category 1 eventually.
  24. It's nothing so far! It is actually the remnants of Odette which may regain strength when it reaches warmer gulf stream water - further away from the coast.
  25. Tropical storm Rose formed, but is in the middle of nowhere and not very strong, so I am not creating a separate thread. Odd disturbance in the north Atlantic with 30% chance. And another following exactly as Peter did, 70% chance over 5 days, so we will be watching this one most carefully.
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