Australia $ Value, Economic Direction?

[Milvain]

Personally, I think if you look closely enough (clothes nad behaviour), you can nearly always pick out who is local and who is a tourist. That said, Australia is very multicultural and therefore make it a little bit harder to work out.:D

 

We live in a vacation resort area in the US and we can always tell when "season" is upon us and the tourists begin to mass at our borders. Their Jimmy Buffet Parrothead outfits and newfound interest in bizarre rum drinks are major clues. As someone planning an extended trip to Australia I'd love to hear the telltale clothing and behaviour you've observed.

[rugbypopsie]

Tourist giveaways....lol (no racist generalisations intended)

 

Traveling in a pack...following guide with flag/umbrella and annoying loudspeaker..probably Japanese

 

Wearing socks with strap sandals...european backpacker

 

Carrying a high end brand name shopping bag...probably Russian/Japanese

 

On Bondi sun burned to a bright shade of red UK/Irish backpacker

 

On a rescue board/needing attention from Bondi lifesavers... Asian tourist possibly Korean

 

On Bondi Beach Christmas Day passed out on sand fully dressed under National flag...represents backpackers from everywhere!

 

We love visitors..come on down!

 

Sue

[MicCanberra]

These work for any country.

Anyone not dressed for work.

Anyone looking at maps or street signs trying to work out which direction they are supposed to go.

Anyone not dressed as the locals.

Anyone fumbling with money, not quite sure if they have the right amount or as if using it for the first time.

Anyone wearing socks and sandals - anywhere but germany.

List the list can go on.:D

[mr walker]

These work for any country.

Anyone not dressed for work.

Anyone looking at maps or street signs trying to work out which direction they are supposed to go.

Anyone not dressed as the locals.

Anyone fumbling with money, not quite sure if they have the right amount or as if using it for the first time.

Anyone wearing socks and sandals - anywhere but germany.

List the list can go on.:D

 

The one that stands out for me is anyone wearing a loud Hawaiian shirt with a camera around their neck.

[Jacs]

Plus anyone posing for the camera in front of any kind of monument or pointing excitedly at the opera house, bridge, kangaroo etc.

 

Anyone eating in a circular quay restaurant that's not in a business suit

 

Anyone lining up in Starbucks

 

Anyone staring confusedly at the public transport ticket machines

[MicCanberra]

Plus anyone posing for the camera in front of any kind of monument or pointing excitedly at the opera house, bridge, kangaroo etc.

 

Anyone eating in a circular quay restaurant that's not in a business suit

 

Anyone lining up in Starbucks

 

Anyone staring confusedly at the public transport ticket machines

Anyone staring at the Macdonald's menu.

Anyone going into a Macdonalds and ordering the coffee, no one gets the coffee except to just use the wi fi. :D

[Aus Traveller]

Tourist giveaways....lol (no racist generalisations intended)

 

Traveling in a pack...following guide with flag/umbrella and annoying loudspeaker..probably Japanese

 

Wearing socks with strap sandals...european backpacker

 

Carrying a high end brand name shopping bag...probably Russian/Japanese

 

On Bondi sun burned to a bright shade of red UK/Irish backpacker

 

On a rescue board/needing attention from Bondi lifesavers... Asian tourist possibly Korean

 

On Bondi Beach Christmas Day passed out on sand fully dressed under National flag...represents backpackers from everywhere!

 

We love visitors..come on down!

 

Sue

Men wearing checked shorts or trousers- American:D

[TLCOhio]

Big news overnight on the sinking value of the dollar. Good news, for us, as we prepared for our early 2014 cruise. Not as good for those in Australia planning to travel overseas.

 

From The Age newspaper in Melbourne, Australia this morning, they have this headline: "Aussie dollar dives on US Fed moves" with these highlights: "The Australian dollar has fallen to 33-month-low after the US Federal Reserve tipped an end to its stimulus program. The Australian currency plunged as low as 92.62 US cents, down nearly 3 US cents from before the start of Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's comments. It reached as low as 92.42 US cents just before 11.40 am as new data out of China, Australia's largest trading partner, showed that its manufacturing sector weakened in June to a nine-month low. FXCM chief currency strategist John Kicklighter said the Australian dollar was losing its appeal as investors moved away from risker assets and back into the US dollar. 'People are going to take that move away from the Australian dollar, and exacerbate it. People are seeing equities starting to pull back, commodities are starting to pull back and the high-yielding currencies [like the Australian dollar] fall,' Mr Kicklighter said."

 

Full story at:

http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/aussie-dollar-dives-on-us-fed-moves-20130620-2ojv1.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

We are looking forward to our first “down under” visit, Jan. 20-Feb. 3, 2014, Celebrity Solstice sailing, departing Sydney, going from Australia to Auckland/NZ doing 14 days on this ship we loved in the Med in June 2011. Plus, doing some pre-cruise options for Cairns/Port Douglas, the Rainforest and Great Barrier Reef, then Kangaroo Island near Adelaide before departing from Sidney’s scenic harbor. And, doing the mid-cruise ship over-night trip to and in Queenstown and then stopping in Hawaii on the way home to break up that long, long flight back. We have a nice and super active roll call going at:

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1614754

Welcome to any who want to join us for this trip and/or travel along via the web as we get prepared for that "adventure".

 

 

Below are two charts from the Wall Street Journal that might illustrate what has happened during the past two months. First, this top chart shows how the Aussie dollar (in blue) has gone down with the NZ dollar (in red) showing roughly the same falling trend/pattern over this period. The second chart, also over the past two months, shows the Aussie dollar's downward movement and a red line comparing it to the fairly stable level of the U.S. dollar during this period.:

 

 

 

[TLCOhio]

Also, from The Australian newspaper today, they have this headline: "Australian dollar tipped to fall to US88c by World Cup 2014" with these highlights: "The Australian dollar is forecast to fall a further seven per cent between now and World Cup 2014 in Brazil, according to HSBC global currency strategists. That's both against the US dollar and the Brazilian real. The Aussie-US dollar exchange rate is expected to fall to US88c by June next year, HSBC says in its June 2013 Macro Currency Strategy Report. 'The US dollar is in the midst of a powerful rally,' HSBC's analysts write. While the Aussie is forecast to weaken against the US dollar in the next 12 months, it is still well above long-term averages against both currencies. Since the Australian dollar was floated in the 1980s its average value has been between US70c and US80c."

 

As background on our roll call, I shared: HSBC is a British multi-national banking and financial services organization headquartered in London. It is one of the world's largest banks. It has its origins in Hong Kong and Shanghai, where branches were first opened in 1865. The HSBC name is derived from the initials of The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation. The Australian is the biggest-selling national newspaper in the country and a part of News Corp. that also owns the sole dailies in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Darwin and the most popular metropolitan dailies in Sydney and Melbourne. These papers are connected with Rupert Murdoch who controls the Wall Street Journal, The Times of London, etc. The Age is part of Fairfax Group that owns the Sydney Morning Herald and other large papers in Australia and NZ.

 

Full story at:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/australian-dollar-tipped-to-fall-to-us88c-by-world-cup-2014/story-e6frg6n6-1226666905563

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 134,217 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[Kinkacruiser]

It was nice while it lasted :rolleyes:

Now we'll need to get in some overtime to pay for our USD shipboard accounts amd/or final bookings. On the positive side, our flagging tourism and manufacrturing industries will be smiling.

 

Have a great time downunder Terry :D . I've been following your thread with interest.

[MicCanberra]

It was nice while it lasted :rolleyes:

Now we'll need to get in some overtime to pay for our USD shipboard accounts amd/or final bookings. On the positive side, our flagging tourism and manufacrturing industries will be smiling.

 

Have a great time downunder Terry :D . I've been following your thread with interest.

Yep, down to 92 cents, going to fall further with the US not printing money anymore (stimulus).:D

[NSWP]

It was nice while it lasted :rolleyes:

Now we'll need to get in some overtime to pay for our USD shipboard accounts amd/or final bookings. On the positive side, our flagging tourism and manufacrturing industries will be smiling.

 

Have a great time downunder Terry :D . I've been following your thread with interest.

Hi again Anna, Overtime? How do us self funded retirees get overtime? Have to live on Vegemite Sambos until we hit the ships next year.

Edited June 24, 2013 by NSWP

[TLCOhio]

There is sufficient oil & gas for us to be self sufficient. The story has been that we need to import some oil to make some of the products as our oil is different to others (lower in Sulphur??). Some years ago the then govt introduced a levy to price match Aus oil with imported (parity pricing) in order to encourage exploration. Oil/fuel pricing is based on some Singapore index. I think it just comes down to that it is cheaper to import refined product than to produce the fuel here. And here in Sydney we have the ubiquotus pricing cycle where the petrol price rises & falls in some predetermined pattern, that seems to have no relationship to published oil pricing or Fx rate.

 

Good added insights and background from mr walker above from another Aust-NZ board, plus the other previous comments made. Keep up the good works!! Appreciate the insights and added sharing.

 

From the Australian Financial Review yesterday morning, they have this headline: "Wait and see on dollar’s tourism impact" with these highlights: "Flight Centre’s managing director, Graham Turner, has said the falling Australian dollar could change the way people travel but there are no signs of that happening yet. 'There’s some conjecture that people travel more when there’s a strong Australian dollar but we haven’t seen that,' he told Financial Review Sunday. 'Previously, there seemed to have been no effect when the Australian dollar falls but we will see this time. It depends on how far the dollar falls and how quickly.' Mr Turner pointed to tourism as one industry that could drive growth in the Australian economy and potentially fill some of void left by declining mining investment. But he added that Australia’s high labour costs were a problem. He said in-bound tourism to Australia from countries such as the United States, United Kingdom and New Zealand had been weak, but he hoped the soft Australian dollar would help attract more tourists. 'One of the big problems is lack of flexibility in wages, and it’s not so much the amount, but the inflexibility that makes it difficult to run businesses in the tourism and retail sectors from our experience.' Westpac’s currency strategist in New York, Richard Franulovich, told Financial Review Sunday: 'There is certainly room for the Aussie dollar to fall a little bit lower in the near term'. Credit Suisse strategist Damien Boey told Financial Review the Reserve Bank of Australia must cut interest rates further to avoid sending the Australian economy into meltdown. Mr Boey said the central bank had misread market data and needed to slash interest rates to offset the slowdown in China’s growth. 'Our economy is incredibly exposed to China ... and that means commodity prices will be weaker for longer, and our mining sector and mining companies will be weaker for longer,' he said."

 

Right now in the Wall Street Journal, buying an Aussie dollar costs $0.9242. It earlier April, that cost had been over $1.05. Interesting insights and comments in the above-mentioned story.

 

Full story at:

http://www.afr.com/p/business/sunday/falling_dollar_will_change_tourism_EQ2uTI9n50fcn8g4tkiWaM

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

For details and visuals, etc., from our July 1-16, 2010, Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise experience from Copenhagen on the Silver Cloud, check out this posting. This posting is now at 110,955 views.

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

 

 

From the Mon., June 24, Wall St. Journal, here is their chart showing the movements of the Aussie Dollar during the past two months:

 

[Kinkacruiser]

Hi again Anna, Overtime? How do us self funded retirees get overtime? Have to live on Vegemite Sambos until we hit the ships next year.

 

G'day Les :D Just kidding re the overtime - vege sambos here too.

[TLCOhio]

From the Sidney Morning Herald today, they have this headline: "Bears circle Goldilocks as Aussie is tipped to slide" with these highlights: "More bears have joined the downgrading party against the dollar, with a major investment bank expecting the currency to fall to US75¢ in 12 months as enthusiasm for what was once dubbed the 'Goldilocks economy' grows cold. The revised forecast from Credit Suisse came as Reserve Bank deputy governor Philip Lowe said governor Glenn Stevens' comments about Tuesday's board meeting - which sent the dollar sliding down half a cent - were 'light-hearted' and had been misinterpreted by financial markets and the media. The dollar rebounded slightly after trading below US91¢ for several hours following Mr Stevens' comments. It was buying US91¢ late on Thursday. While the dollar has fallen more than 13 per cent against its US counterpart since mid-April, Credit Suisse analysts said on Thursday they expected it to slip further to US87¢, a level it has not seen since July 2010. The analysts forecast the dollar to drop to US75¢ in 12 months. 'Our feeling remains that either the dollar will continue to fall naturally or the RBA will need to give it another push with a further interest rate cut,' Credit Suisse said. TD Securities also revised its forecasts on Thursday. It now expects the embattled currency to trade at US90¢ by year's end and fall as low as US85¢ in 2014. Bank of America was similarly bearish, saying its US89¢ forecast could be too upbeat if the slowdown in Australia's largest trading partner, China, takes place faster than economists expect. Weaker commodity prices, a stronger US dollar and Australia's slower-than-expected move away from a dependence on mining investment have also weighed on the currency."

 

As we get closer to our Jan. 20, 2014, sailing date, we will have a front-row seat to watch and see which of these predictions happen, come true, fall short, etc. For us, with our week-plus time in Australia before sailing out from Sydney, plus the stop in Tasmania, these downward "adjustments" are helpful for our budgets. Will keep monitoring these movements and trends with interest.

 

Full story at:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bears-circle-goldilocks-as-aussie-is-tipped-to-slide-20130704-2peup.html

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 135,183 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[NSWP]

Dare I say it, can we adjust our tips in U.S. Dollars when we travel on the American ships by the fall in the exchange rate? e.g. cut the auto tips by 15% or 20%? Sounds tempting.

 

Terry in Ohio makes me depressed every time I read his posts relevant to the falling AUD !!!!

Edited July 6, 2013 by NSWP

[The_Big_M]

Dare I say it, can we adjust our tips in U.S. Dollars when we travel on the American ships by the fall in the exchange rate? e.g. cut the auto tips by 15% or 20%? Sounds tempting.

 

Sure, just add a note at the bottom of your Setsail pass or equivalent:

"Mr NSWP reserves the right to impose a tip decrement of 15% per guest per day on all guests if the rate of AUD deteriorates below 90c per USD."

 

:D

[NSWP]

Sure, just add a note at the bottom of your Setsail pass or equivalent:

"Mr NSWP reserves the right to impose a tip decrement of 15% per guest per day on all guests if the rate of AUD deteriorates below 90c per USD."

 

:D

I like it, perhaps I should take this over to the Princess board for their approval, I can imagine the replies. My bullet proof vest is not thick enough.

[MicCanberra]

I dare say tourism will increase in Australia as the AUD drops but I am not sure that Australians will stop touring abroad or aboard for that matter.:D

[TLCOhio]

Terry in Ohio makes me depressed every time I read his posts relevant to the falling AUD !!!!

 

Don't mean to depress Les and/or any others. Just sharing these trends and news stories. As of this morning in the Wall St. Journal, they have the Aussie dollar at $0.9067. Below 91 cents for us to buy. Appreciate the other insights, comments and interesting items being shared. Keep up the good work!

 

THANKS! Enjoy! Terry in Ohio

 

Did a June 7-19, 2011, Celebrity Solstice cruise from Barcelona that had stops in Villefranche, ports near Pisa and Rome, Naples, Kotor, Venice and Dubrovnik. Enjoyed great weather and a wonderful trip. Dozens of wonderful visuals with key highlights, tips, comments, etc., on these postings. We are now at 135,249 views for this live/blog re-cap on our first sailing with Celebrity and much on wonderful Barcelona. Check these postings and added info at:

http://www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1426474

[Jacs]

Just FYI Terry, we do have news reports and papers here too, we are reading about the dollar changes and hearing about them on the news and radio everyday just like you are ;) but while it may be a positive for you, to us its plain depressing thinking of how much more our cruising is going to cost us! :)

[MicCanberra]

Just FYI Terry, we do have news reports and papers here too, we are reading about the dollar changes and hearing about them on the news and radio everyday just like you are ;) but while it may be a positive for you, to us its plain depressing thinking of how much more our cruising is going to cost us! :)

LOL, :D, The dropping AUD may change the length of the trip and the location of the trip but I will still be cruising somewhere.:D

[NSWP]

Thanks again for your financial report Terry in Ohio. I am already planning to drop down to Johnny Walker Red from the JW Black on the Golden Princess and Arcadia next year. The Boss is now down to a glass of house Chardie, no more Mohitos pre dinner.

 

Carnival Corporation shareholders, take note, Les and the Boss are cutting back on their standard of alcoholic beverages, watch your dividends. (LOL)

Edited July 7, 2013 by NSWP

[Jacs]

^lol. Luckily I have the 123 go promotion from Celebrity on our upcoming cruise, and paid for the premium upgrade before the dollar tanked. No sacrificing the evening cocktails thankfully. I do though think the husband will be severely adjusting my casino budget :D

[MicCanberra]

^lol. Luckily I have the 123 go promotion from Celebrity on our upcoming cruise,

Same here for my cruises, so it really is only cruises I haven't booked yet that will be affected. I doubt that they would be dry cruises though. Like I said before, it may limit the time and amount but will not stop me from holidaying/cruising.:D