Two new mid size ships starting 2022

[jeff92k7]

8 minutes ago, RDC1 said:

First for a transfer to HAL to take place they would need to be refit into the look and feel of a HAL ship, which is significantly different than a Carnival ship so there would be substantial remodeling costs. 

 

 

 

I completely get that.  To expand on my comments and put some numbers on them, I did some googling.  Carnival seems pretty tight lipped on the cost of their refits, but here's what I can find.  The expected renovation cost to turn the Triumph into the Sunrise is reported to be ~$200 million.  That will be a complete refurbishment of the entire ship, adding decks, cabins, and remodelling all other areas.  Likely, there will be mechanical upgrades as well.  For all intents and purposes, they are building a new ship inside an existing hull.  However, that ship is much larger than the 2000 and smaller capacity that this discussion is about.
 
The elation and paradise (~2000 double occupancy) recently received major refits (undisclosed cost) where they remodeled all the passenger cabins and most of the common areas.  They also added another deck with more cabins (now 2200 double occupancy).  Untouched were the aft lounge, casino, theater, lobby, and nightclubs; though I believe many of those did get new carpet and upholstery.  Still, not near the extent of the aforementioned Triumph/Sunrise.  An uneducated guess is that it probably cost them $40-50 million.  (Side note: When the major refits were announced for the Elation, there were rumors that Carnival was doing that to prep it to be moved to Princess.  That hasn't happened (yet), but then again, Carnival doesn't announce plans like that ahead of time either.)
 
So, continuing the discussion, to move to HAL, they would have to remodel all those same areas as well as the untouched common areas to give it a "HAL" feel.  So I would guess that it would cost ~$100 million to refit a ship of that approximate size into a HAL ship (or other brand).   Going back to my original comment, the spirit class of ships would be good options for this. They aren't much bigger than the Fantasy class, so the cost to renovate should be roughly similar.  Their passenger capacity is ~2100 at double occupancy which is just over the 2000 mark, but still more likely than any new build at that size.  
 
So Carnival Corp would be looking at a cost of ~100 million to refit an older ship, versus $500 million plus to build a new ship around 2000 passenger capacity.   I don't see them building new ships at that size, and it seems that pretty much everyone on this thread agrees with that, but I would still argue that they may refit older ships and rebrand them to maintain that relatively smaller and less crowded feeling.
 
All said, I think we are both saying the same thing... the cost to benefit just isn't there for new ships at HAL.  Refits may be the best option if HAL is to remain as a slightly upscale/premium mass market brand.  The only other options are to get rid of HAL, or add giant 5000+ capacity ships.  Honestly, I don't see the latter happening.  I think that size ship would turn away many HAL customers who specifically avoid the giant amusement park of the seas type of ships.

[OlsSalt]

"Confessed" by one in the know five years ago,  HAL worried about losing the very loyal passenger base to a competitor if they sold the Prinsendam.  So is HAL now spinning these stalwart Prinsendam passengers off to their new-builds?   Or will Fred Olsen be scooping them up on the Boudicca or even the Balmoral.

[kazu]

42 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

"Confessed" by one in the know five years ago,  HAL worried about losing the very loyal passenger base to a competitor if they sold the Prinsendam.  So is HAL now spinning these stalwart Prinsendam passengers off to their new-builds?   Or will Fred Olsen be scooping them up on the Boudicca or even the Balmoral.

 

 

I honestly don't know what some of the passengers will do.

 

I do know that many people I met on the P'dam were 4 and usually 5* and the only ship they sailed was the Prinsendam.

 

they are drawn on the itineraries, the good service and the ship itself.

 

where they will go?  I don't know.  I can see some regulars who do many ships going to the Pinnacle class but I suspect many will look elsewhere.  I don't know if Fred Olsen is the answer though 😉. 

 

I do think HAL will lose some people with this move, but I've been wrong before 😉 

[RDC1]

59 minutes ago, jeff92k7 said:

 

I completely get that.  To expand on my comments and put some numbers on them, I did some googling.  Carnival seems pretty tight lipped on the cost of their refits, but here's what I can find.  The expected renovation cost to turn the Triumph into the Sunrise is reported to be ~$200 million.  That will be a complete refurbishment of the entire ship, adding decks, cabins, and remodelling all other areas.  Likely, there will be mechanical upgrades as well.  For all intents and purposes, they are building a new ship inside an existing hull.  However, that ship is much larger than the 2000 and smaller capacity that this discussion is about.
 
The elation and paradise (~2000 double occupancy) recently received major refits (undisclosed cost) where they remodeled all the passenger cabins and most of the common areas.  They also added another deck with more cabins (now 2200 double occupancy).  Untouched were the aft lounge, casino, theater, lobby, and nightclubs; though I believe many of those did get new carpet and upholstery.  Still, not near the extent of the aforementioned Triumph/Sunrise.  An uneducated guess is that it probably cost them $40-50 million.  (Side note: When the major refits were announced for the Elation, there were rumors that Carnival was doing that to prep it to be moved to Princess.  That hasn't happened (yet), but then again, Carnival doesn't announce plans like that ahead of time either.)
 
So, continuing the discussion, to move to HAL, they would have to remodel all those same areas as well as the untouched common areas to give it a "HAL" feel.  So I would guess that it would cost ~$100 million to refit a ship of that approximate size into a HAL ship (or other brand).   Going back to my original comment, the spirit class of ships would be good options for this. They aren't much bigger than the Fantasy class, so the cost to renovate should be roughly similar.  Their passenger capacity is ~2100 at double occupancy which is just over the 2000 mark, but still more likely than any new build at that size.  
 
So Carnival Corp would be looking at a cost of ~100 million to refit an older ship, versus $500 million plus to build a new ship around 2000 passenger capacity.   I don't see them building new ships at that size, and it seems that pretty much everyone on this thread agrees with that, but I would still argue that they may refit older ships and rebrand them to maintain that relatively smaller and less crowded feeling.
 
All said, I think we are both saying the same thing... the cost to benefit just isn't there for new ships at HAL.  Refits may be the best option if HAL is to remain as a slightly upscale/premium mass market brand.  The only other options are to get rid of HAL, or add giant 5000+ capacity ships.  Honestly, I don't see the latter happening.  I think that size ship would turn away many HAL customers who specifically avoid the giant amusement park of the seas type of ships.

Pretty agree with what you are saying. There is no sign that HAL is interested in refitting any old ships, old being near or over 30)  Previous patterns of acquisition would indicate the opposite.  There have been some movements of ships from one CCL line to another.  But they tend to be from Princess to P&O.  The sale of smaller ships tends to be to European lines. 

Edited January 16, 2019 by RDC1

[sammiedawg]

4 hours ago, OlsSalt said:

BTW, I don't need two cabin clean-ups a day. One would do nicely. 

 

I strongly disagree with your premise that passengers want to downgrade their experience so they can travel on a “small ship”.  I would bet the majority of travelers want something nicer than their home.  I would rather stay home than experience a downgraded level of accommodations, food, service.  

Heck, there are thousands of threads bemoaning various downgrades on Holland America.  

Over the years we have have had to upgrade our level of cruise lines, hotels, restaurants. We are not snobs and generally live below our means.  But we want nice travel and entertainment experiences and know we must pay a higher price.  

 

Ship size is vastly over rated IMO.  Quality of food, service and ship mean much more. 

[OlsSalt]

Size of ship is absolutely critical when it comes to certain ports and ability to dock in certain locations - I am seeing these continued HAL smaller ships more for the more unique itineraries they still service; not for routine bus trips.  Those are the ports  where size still very much matters. My own sweet spot would be the under 1200 passenger size -like the Maasdam, or the smaller un-altered R class ships - 1400 or so.

 

That is the discussion here. Is there any future for continued mid-market smaller ships, and what would it take to get there to make fiscal sense.  Cutting staffing demands would be one way to nudge the better bottom line - one daily cabin service instead of two. Or would that decrease in service even matter cost and staffing wise.  I believe Carnival was asking upfront if one wanted two cabin services a day, there would be a surcharge. 

 

Everything is on the table. We are just tossing ideas around; nothing hard and fast.  

Edited January 17, 2019 by OlsSalt

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, sammiedawg said:

 

I strongly disagree with your premise that passengers want to downgrade their experience so they can travel on a “small ship”.  I would bet the majority of travelers want something nicer than their home.  I would rather stay home than experience a downgraded level of accommodations, food, service.  

Heck, there are thousands of threads bemoaning various downgrades on Holland America.  

Over the years we have have had to upgrade our level of cruise lines, hotels, restaurants. We are not snobs and generally live below our means.  But we want nice travel and entertainment experiences and know we must pay a higher price.  

 

Ship size is vastly over rated IMO.  Quality of food, service and ship mean much more. 

 

I think there is a segment of mid-age to younger cruisers that prefer "experience" over "luxury".  My image of the type of ships under discussion is more of an 'adventure/expedition' type line -- sort of what HAL is trying with Maasdam.  

 

It's all about expectations -- yes, sometimes I want a really great hotel (or cruise) with luxurious furnishings and a great restaurant. Other times I am more interested in the destination and if it's interesting or unusual enough, I don't mind roughing it a bit -- that's part of the experience.

 

Caveat:  Under no circumstances must 'roughing it' involve nonfunctional systems. That should be a given.

 

I would be thinking of something more like the Hurtigruten experience. Their ships aren't luxurious but they are well-designed, well-kept, the food is good, and they serve their purpose.  

 

Is that HAL?  I'm not really sure that it is.  I think Carnival would be better off creating an entirely new division if that is something they wanted to pursue.

 

 

42 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

Size of ship is absolutely critical when it comes to certain ports and ability to dock in certain locations - I am seeing these continued HAL smaller ships more for the more unique itineraries they still service; not for routine bus trips.  Those are the ports  where size still very much matters. My own sweet spot would be the under 1200 passenger size -like the Maasdam, or the smaller un-altered R class ships - 1400 or so.

 

 

 

I agree with this. With Prinsendam leaving the fleet, there are now ports that none of the remaining ships can visit. And ironically, smaller ships may become more desirable in future as places like Venice and Santorini struggle with the number of cruise ship passengers arriving during the heavily trafficked summer season that now extends from April through October. These places (and perhaps more to follow) are looking at various ways to limit cruise ship size and/or total passenger load. So there may come a time in future when, if you want to see Dubrovnik, say, you have to go on a "small" (or at least "smaller") ship.

[AL3XCruise]

1 hour ago, OlsSalt said:

Size of ship is absolutely critical when it comes to certain ports and ability to dock in certain locations - I am seeing these continued HAL smaller ships more for the more unique itineraries they still service; not for routine bus trips.  Those are the ports  where size still very much matters. My own sweet spot would be the under 1200 passenger size -like the Maasdam, or the smaller un-altered R class ships - 1400 or so.

 

That is the discussion here. Is there any future for continued mid-market smaller ships, and what would it take to get there to make fiscal sense.

That is what I understood--we aren't talking about 'slumming it', but there are some who value the options as smaller cruise opens up but are happy with HAL (or Princess or Celebrity) level service.  I know I don't need nor desire to pay for the extras that come with a premium line like Azamara or a luxury line like Seabourn, so missing those amenities doesn't matter to me.  I think we all agree there is a market segment there, the question is how do you get the margins big enough to make it attractive.

 

36 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

Is that HAL?  I'm not really sure that it is.  I think Carnival would be better off creating an entirely new division if that is something they wanted to pursue.

I've never seen HAL as an expedition line, and I agree there are certain destinations where something like that would make sense.  But there are a lot of destinations a 1000 to 2000 passenger can get to that I wouldn't consider "expedition".  For example, Empress OTS used to make runs to Bermuda that included stops in Hamilton and St George.  No other RCI ship could do it, and many of the folks on our voyage selected the vessel for that reason.

 

It is also worth noting that Celebrity does have an "expedition" division that operates under the same brand.  They actually have a 16 passenger vessel and are building a new 100 passenger ship.  I believe the tiny cruiser was the result of an acquisition that may have included some valuable permits, etc, in the Galapagos, but they have chosen to keep it in operation.  Obviously they charge premium pricing compared to the main brand so its not exactly relevant to the market we have been discussing, but I find it interesting how they have marketed it as a sub-brand of X rather than its own division.

 

[philbob84]

On 1/14/2019 at 12:17 PM, terrydtx said:

In the world of huge Mega Ships, with 4000+ passenger capacities, water slides, roller coasters and wave machines, how do you consider HAL with its largest 2660 passengers ships  competing in the Big Ship Market? If you want HAL to be something it is not, bankrupt, then let it try to compete with nothing but small less than 1500 PAX ships.  Twenty years ago  2000 and 2600 passenger ships were  Mega Ships, today they are small ships by comparison.

I think the 1500-2100 is the new small mass market and frankly i think it is fine.

[philbob84]

On 1/14/2019 at 1:39 PM, kazu said:

 

Prinsendam hit the 30 mark last year.  She is still with the fleet (leased) until July.

 

Then, sadly she is gone.  Along with her leaving will be some regulars I suspect.  I met a lot of people who were 4 or 5* + Mariners and that was the only HAL ship they would sail.  They sailed for itinerary and experience of good service 😉 

 

And yes it is tougher to maintain these ships - her windows and other things had to be specially ordered.

Her itineraries looked wonderful.

[AL3XCruise]

1 hour ago, philbob84 said:

I think the 1500-2100 is the new small mass market and frankly i think it is fine.

I'm not sure if there are any mass market lines building new ships in that size range.  The V class ships are just under 2000 at dual occupancy, but over 2200 at maximum occupancy.  Everything I'm aware of from RCI, X, NCL, and the North American Carnival Brands are all over 2000 (except the aforementioned "Xpedition" ships).  Looking at future orders, it seems like there is virtually no interest in the sub 2500 passenger market among those players.  

 

I believe in terms of Passenger Capacity the smallest ships with a mass market North American line are the S class; the smallest by gross tonnage is the Empress OTS.  For now...

 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

This is a very interesting discussion   . May the best cruise lines win  in their marketing of  cruise ships 

[sail7seas]

On 1/9/2019 at 9:52 PM, OlsSalt said:

 

R class is an excellent choice and can still offer the great unique itineraries. That would be HAL's strongest competition to Viking etc and all the smaller upscale ships - my "Ford compact". Have loved them all - they were chosen as HAL flagships for a reason and are their bestowed signature ships in the cruise ship world. 

 

Chasing the larger ships offers nothing unique for the established HAL brand- just bulk but no distinctive charms of what put HAL ships on the map in the first place.

 

 

"O" has totally killed any chance I  would try them   they have filled my  rfecycle  bin  to the point I am sick of getting  their pile of mail each and EVery week.  If ads are supposed to be an enticement to get new customers, they  are failing with 'over   kill'

 

 

 

sail,noordam@gmail.com

[Topsham]

Happy Nieuw Year!  Hello to many good old friends.  Have been swamped so don't post much.   I read through frequently.  ;-)

 

Thought you might think about this new ship, due out this June.  Roughly the same as the R Class.... 58,000 tonnes.  Passengers  Max: 999.  No  inside cabins.  ALL balconies.  100 Single balcony cabins.  No  obstructed views.   Main Dining room,  Lido restaurant.  The 'special' restaurants....  one steak house, one fish restaurant and one 'Asian' restaurant.  No any extra charge for restaurants.    All one sitting.   Dinner 6.45pm to 9 pm.  Show lounge.  HUGE library.   Gym and spa with inside pool.  Outside pool.     'The Bunker'... Golf simulator.    Card room.   Art & Craft  for art instructors.  All inclusive... includes  drinks, wines etc.  Dress code:   Average week:  2 formal, 2 informal, 3 casual.  Dress code enforced in ALL restaurants including Lido.  Small  shop.  No casino.   Two captains working this ship. One from Cunard's Queen Elizabeth and the other is ex  Holland America Line.   Spirit of Discovery.    Second ship due 2020, Spirit of  Adventure.   Age limit: 50  and up.

[OlsSalt]

9 hours ago, sail7seas said:

 

 

"O" has totally killed any chance I  would try them   they have filled my  rfecycle  bin  to the point I am sick of getting  their pile of mail each and EVery week.  If ads are supposed to be an enticement to get new customers, they  are failing with 'over   kill'

 

 

 

sail,noordam@gmail.com

 

Gheesh, just wait until you get the sealed ten pounder we got in the mail from Oceania today.  Almost beat Restoration Hardware who at least has a lick of sense to stop sending their heavy catologues once a few years have gone by without an order.

[Sir PMP]

48 minutes ago, Topsham said:

Happy Nieuw Year!  Hello to many good old friends.  Have been swamped so don't post much.   I read through frequently.  😉

 

Thought you might think about this new ship, due out this June.  Roughly the same as the R Class.... 58,000 tonnes.  Passengers  Max: 999.  No  inside cabins.  ALL balconies.  100 Single balcony cabins.  No  obstructed views.   Main Dining room,  Lido restaurant.  The 'special' restaurants....  one steak house, one fish restaurant and one 'Asian' restaurant.  No any extra charge for restaurants.    All one sitting.   Dinner 6.45pm to 9 pm.  Show lounge.  HUGE library.   Gym and spa with inside pool.  Outside pool.     'The Bunker'... Golf simulator.    Card room.   Art & Craft  for art instructors.  All inclusive... includes  drinks, wines etc.  Dress code:   Average week:  2 formal, 2 informal, 3 casual.  Dress code enforced in ALL restaurants including Lido.  Small  shop.  No casino.   Two captains working this ship. One from Cunard's Queen Elizabeth and the other is ex  Holland America Line.   Spirit of Discovery.    Second ship due 2020, Spirit of  Adventure.   Age limit: 50  and up.

 

Great painting captain!! Good to have you back...

[AL3XCruise]

52 minutes ago, Topsham said:

Happy Nieuw Year!  Hello to many good old friends.  Have been swamped so don't post much.   I read through frequently.  😉

 

Thought you might think about this new ship, due out this June.  Roughly the same as the R Class.... 58,000 tonnes.  Passengers  Max: 999.  No  inside cabins.  ALL balconies. 

 

It will be interesting to see how that does.  Looks like they currently operate older ships (a la Olsen) but are a tier or two higher; in order to keep that level of service and build a more premium market share they need the new-build vessels.  I don't know much about them, but five minutes on the site I get more Azamara/Oceania vibes than a HAL feeling in terms of offerings and pricing.

[sail7seas]

1 hour ago, Topsham said:

Happy Nieuw Year!  Hello to many good old friends.  Have been swamped so don't post much.   I read through frequently.  😉

 

Thought you might think about this new ship, due out this June.  Roughly the same as the R Class.... 58,000 tonnes.  Passengers  Max: 999.  No  inside cabins.  ALL balconies.  100 Single balcony cabins.  No  obstructed views.   Main Dining room,  Lido restaurant.  The 'special' restaurants....  one steak house, one fish restaurant and one 'Asian' restaurant.  No any extra charge for restaurants.    All one sitting.   Dinner 6.45pm to 9 pm.  Show lounge.  HUGE library.   Gym and spa with inside pool.  Outside pool.     'The Bunker'... Golf simulator.    Card room.   Art & Craft  for art instructors.  All inclusive... includes  drinks, wines etc.  Dress code:   Average week:  2 formal, 2 informal, 3 casual.  Dress code enforced in ALL restaurants including Lido.  Small  shop.  No casino.   Two captains working this ship. One from Cunard's Queen Elizabeth and the other is ex  Holland America Line.   Spirit of Discovery.    Second ship due 2020, Spirit of  Adventure.   Age limit: 50  and up.

 

Hey, Hi, Hello,  good to 'see'  you.

 

Happy New Year, Stephen, a Healthy one.

 

 

sail.noordam@gmail.com

 

[OlsSalt]

SAGA cruise lines - the Spirit ships. (Don't need the all-inclusive beverages)

CMV is another smaller ship contender, and then there is the very small but pricey Noble Caledonia. 

 

Interesting market - SAGA has long been a contender at this size. 

[RDC1]

2 hours ago, AL3XCruise said:

 

It will be interesting to see how that does.  Looks like they currently operate older ships (a la Olsen) but are a tier or two higher; in order to keep that level of service and build a more premium market share they need the new-build vessels.  I don't know much about them, but five minutes on the site I get more Azamara/Oceania vibes than a HAL feeling in terms of offerings and pricing.

There prices are fairly competitive for what they are offering, especially for all inclusive. Prices starting around $241 per person per day. 

Their new ships are costing 350 million, or 350k per passenger. 

Will be interesting to see how how their fares go once the new ships are fully integrated.

[UPNYGuy]

On 1/9/2019 at 7:25 PM, kazu said:

I don’t understand why everyone is calling Oceania luxury, it’s NOT at all.

 

Classified as premium but that is debatable.  It depends on the ship and the week.  The Prinsendam crew could have taught my O crew a few things.

 

But their cabins are very nice 😉 

 

Mr. Ashford has been on the Prinsendam to see what the attraction is.  Time will tell but we all have choices.  I’ll choose wisely and based on my last O cruise and the reply from their head office, it is NOT an option for us 😉 

 

Would I like HAL to do a new mid size/small ship?  YES.  Will it happen under the current management?  I think not. 😞. 

 

I have sailed on O several times. It is a solid step above HAL, but it is not a luxury line. Nor does Oceania market themselves as one. Regent is the luxury line, much like Seabourn is in the Carnival consortium.