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NCLH Stock Price


Hrhbob
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31 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I believe this is true, but I do think that if ONLY ncl removes vaccines they will have an advantage by drawing in loyalty members from CCL and RCL (mind you, I don't believe this is likely).

 

 

they are removing the unvaccinated part of their terms but still need to be tested if unvaxed. no testing if fully vaxed

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8 minutes ago, DAVLIB007 said:

they are removing the unvaccinated part of their terms but still need to be tested if unvaxed. no testing if fully vaxed

 

Yes, those of us who have been discussing this at length take that part for granted, but we should be more clear for those new to the topic. 

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I will chip in and say the following, even though the financials look terrible at the moment, I think with the sell off today (and maybe tomorrow), this to me seems a great time to buy NCLH stocks to hold for longer. 

 

In the long-term i see lots of upside potential... I honestly think the worst should be behind us, even if in the next quarters we still see losses, but the losses will get smaller and smaller, while at the same time I expect the revenue to get close to pre-covid levels in 2023. 

 

With the two new ships coming on the market (where they can charge a premium) and bookings trending higher over the coming 12 months, i see much more upside than downside potential. 

The only serious concern in the short-term might be staffing issues to fill the ships, but that should be resolved over time as well. 

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11 minutes ago, kasimir said:

I will chip in and say the following, even though the financials look terrible at the moment, I think with the sell off today (and maybe tomorrow), this to me seems a great time to buy NCLH stocks to hold for longer. 

 

In the long-term i see lots of upside potential... I honestly think the worst should be behind us, even if in the next quarters we still see losses, but the losses will get smaller and smaller, while at the same time I expect the revenue to get close to pre-covid levels in 2023. 

 

With the two new ships coming on the market (where they can charge a premium) and bookings trending higher over the coming 12 months, i see much more upside than downside potential. 

The only serious concern in the short-term might be staffing issues to fill the ships, but that should be resolved over time as well. 

 

I'm going to disagree, but please understand I'm doing so respectfully. We are both speculating and only time will tell who is correct.

 

I agree that the worst in bookings is behind us. Revenue should increase each quarter from hear on out. However; bookings looking forward are not yet positive and NCL came out today and stated they will take on more debt in Q3 and Q4. Unless I'm way out of line here, that's about as long as NCL can last without further dilution and or tapping into the 1B loan they have. However; as you know, both of those options present great risks and challenges.  

 

I see restructuring as a very possible solution to the current debt. How much restructuring is unknown, but wiping out all the debt (and shareholders) and starting fresh seems like an appealing choice. The ships won't go away. NCL as a name brand may not go away, but shareholders could lose everything.

 

In the case of full disclosure, I have been shorting this stock since July of 2021. I'm up nearly 60%. It's painful to bet against an industry I love, but the betting has proven very very lucrative. I'm not clearing my shorts yet. I still think this stock has room to move down.

 

So, for those of you thinking of investing at this time, there you have opposing viewpoints lol. 

 

And Kasimir, please know that I mean no disrespect at all. 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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4 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm going to disagree, but please understand I'm doing so respectfully. We are both speculating and only time will tell who is correct.

 

I agree that the worst in bookings is behind us. Revenue should increase each quarter from hear on out. However; bookings looking forward are not yet positive and NCL came out today and stated they will take on more debt in Q3 and Q4. Unless I'm way out of line here, that's about as long as NCL can last without further dilution and or tapping into the 1B loan they have. However; as you know, both of those options present great risks and challenges.  

 

I see restructuring as a very possible solution to the current debt. How much restructuring is unknown, but wiping out all the debt (and shareholders) and starting fresh seems like an appealing choice. The ships won't go away. NCL as a name brand may not go away, but shareholders could lose everything.

 

In the case of full disclosure, I have been shorting this stock since July of 2021. I'm up nearly 60%. It's painful to bet against an industry I love, but the betting has proven very very lucrative. I'm not clearing my shorts yet. I still think this stock has room to move down.

Well said... in the end its difficult to call a bottom as the markets are not necessarily driven by logic and it might go side-ways for a while still. 

Fully agree that things will change (some form of re-organization is at the horizon), but I don't see NCL as a brand (or the company) to go away anytime soon, unless the situation becomes much worst. 

 

But my feeling is that there is a higher chance for NCLH to move up by 50%, than 50% down over the next 6-12 months. 

 

If i would be you, I would realize some of your short profits 😉

 

 

Next quarter earnings should be very interesting... 

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2 minutes ago, kasimir said:

Well said... in the end its difficult to call a bottom as the markets are not necessarily driven by logic and it might go side-ways for a while still. 

Fully agree that things will change (some form of re-organization is at the horizon), but I don't see NCL as a brand (or the company) to go away anytime soon, unless the situation becomes much worst. 

 

But my feeling is that there is a higher chance for NCLH to move up by 50%, than 50% down over the next 6-12 months. 

 

If i would be you, I would realize some of your short profits 😉

 

 

Next quarter earnings should be very interesting... 

 

You should join us in the floataway lounge for stock discussions. We're a small but very friendly group. We chat stock daily. Disagree lots, but respectfully. I think you would fit right in. And for what it's worth, everyone there is long except me so I'm recruiting you for the opposing team lol. 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

You should join us in the floataway lounge for stock discussions. We're a small but very friendly group. We chat stock daily. Disagree lots, but respectfully. I think you would fit right in. And for what it's worth, everyone there is long except me so I'm recruiting you for the opposing team lol. 

 

Thanks… I will look into it 😁

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, kasimir said:

But my feeling is that there is a higher chance for NCLH to move up by 50%, than 50% down over the next 6-12 months. 

 

 

Good discussions.  I'm not a fan of an equity investment long-term at this time in NCLH, or RCL and CCL.  Maybe post-restructuring.

 

IMO, when institutional investors (hedge funds and the like) are taking 20-25% hits (see yesterday debt trades) on NCLH, it really is doesn't bode well for equity holders in the long term.  However, you're right when it is noted that the equity markets are not really all fundamentally based.  So, there could be a short-term +-.  For example, for the quarter ending 9/30/2022, the numbers should be the best they've been post-pandemic.  They will play that and the market makers and traders will too.  If they stumble at all or in the least, the pendulum sweeps the other way.

 

However, the hierarchy of the debt structures (secured, unsecured general, unsecured, subordinated etc. ship, ships, islands, etc.) lays out a stratification of priorities in a restructuring as well as ranking those who will have the most influence (control) as to what happens and when.  You can almost rank the debt by the trades to get an idea of which ones are believed to be at the front of the line.  It generally seems that those holding the most secured assets will be at the head of the table and those descending in subordinated or even general creditors will be taking measurable haircuts (equity, of course, being eliminated).

 

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And then this morning, CPI at 8.5% which I would say is bad, means the feds are going to probably hit another 75 basis point hike....and what do the stocks do???

 

They shoot up.

 

So far today:

NCLH up 8%
RCL up 7%

CCL up 7%

 

 

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1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

And then this morning, CPI at 8.5% which I would say is bad, means the feds are going to probably hit another 75 basis point hike....and what do the stocks do???

 

They shoot up.

 

So far today:

NCLH up 8%
RCL up 7%

CCL up 7%

 

 

 

The market is so fickle. The only good news here is that there is opportunity for those of us who day trade. I'll take 10% swings everyday as long as I'm on the right side of the trade 😉 

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1 hour ago, JohnIreland said:

Have I missed some news today ?

 

It's up 14.70% now.

 

No, you've not missed anything.  The media, including financial and related outlets and commentators, are cherry picking the wonderful performance highlights from the words of FDR yesterday.  Again, as others have noted, volatility is a money maker for traders in the short term.  

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3 hours ago, oteixeira said:

And then this morning, CPI at 8.5% which I would say is bad, means the feds are going to probably hit another 75 basis point hike....and what do the stocks do???

 

They shoot up.

 

So far today:

NCLH up 8%
RCL up 7%

CCL up 7%

 

 

 

The consensus for the CPI was for 8.7% and the market priced that in ... so 8.5% is better than expected. But most importantly the month over month CPI was reported at 0%. So the market is interpreting that the worst is behind us and things are slowly improving. 

 

If there are no more other negative surprises in the coming weeks, I do not expect the FED to raise by another 75 basis points. I expect them to raise 50 or 25 at the next FED meeting. 

 

So it seems the market is getting cautiously optimistic. 

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  • 1 month later...

It's been a bit of time since we revisited this thread. Let's see if I can recap
 

In the last month, Cruise stocks have done well compared to the DOW. Up until Monday, they experienced 10 green days back to back (which is rare considering volatility). Yesterday was the first day in a good bit where the market out preformed cruise stock (and the market had a significant sell off in the late hours).

 

Today was the first bit of financial news from the industry in quite some time. RCL filed with the SEC that they are seeking another 2 Billion from the High Yield Junk bond market to refinance debt. This likely matters to NCLH holders because, since the pandemic, all three have traded in sync.

 

 

From Bloombergs on RCL's SEC filing today:

image.png.80df7fcf26f04c7111f42e139513da63.png

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-taps-junk-bond-134737753.html

 

 

On the flipside: All three lines have released press stating that since the removal of covid protocols bookings have increased significantly. RCL even included a blurb in today's SEC filing about how great bookings have been since removal of the covid protocols....

 

In a filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday, Royal Caribbean (ticker: RCL) said that bookings are significantly outpacing prepandemic levels, after it loosened Covid-19 related requirements for most itineraries this summer. Royal Caribbean travelers departing from U.S. ports don’t have to report their Covid-19 vaccination status, as long as their trips don’t include Canada or Bermuda, according to its website.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2800f6c1-4884-3fd3-aa28-d553a1713d1f/royal-caribbean-says-bookings.html

 

 

 

Cruise lines compared to the DOW over the past year. You can see an significant increase in confidence in August with announcement that covid protocols would be removed. The decline this week is most likely due to the feds raising interest rates.

image.thumb.png.c16c441e2bdc6662a4831708096b14a3.png

 

 

It may also interest some of you to know that the insider trading (selling) has increased earning a -96 score. As you can see, in the last 100 trade, insiders on NCLH have bought 1,701,168 shares but sold 415,103,041 shares. Of course, Insider trading is only one metric to look at.

 

image.png.792171cbde7e2ae7311be069719e2e15.png

 

 

 

Assuming we believe what the cruise lines are saying regarding 2023 bookings, that is a reason to be hopeful for the industry. IMO it all boils down to this question: Can the cruise lines service interest payments on their mounting debt? 

 

 

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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I agree - I was reading an article and it also stated the RCL listed Celebrity Cruises as collateral.

 

It will be interesting to hear from Carnival this week during their business update.  I still foresee additional fleet/brand sales for CCL, with my guess of AIDAaura, Volendam, Zaandam, Aurora, and possibly the Elation and Paradise shortlisted.  If not the two carnivals, my guess they will be removed once Venezia and Firenze join the fleet in 2023/2024.

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I've stated it before and been shot down, but I've wondered what NCL's appetite has been for acquiring Explorer Dream, Genting Dream and/or World Dream.  Even if it were the smaller Explorer Dream, the ship recently went thru a significant refit like the Norwegian Spirit.

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46 minutes ago, Beezo said:

I've stated it before and been shot down, but I've wondered what NCL's appetite has been for acquiring Explorer Dream, Genting Dream and/or World Dream.  Even if it were the smaller Explorer Dream, the ship recently went thru a significant refit like the Norwegian Spirit.

Zero appetite or need, and I doubt any bank would be dumb enough to loan them the money.

The last thing NCL needs at this time is additional capacity. They can't fill the current fleet with a  sufficient number of passengers to make a profit.

They have ships of their own design on order to fill future needs when (hopefully) their financial picture improves.

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9 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

All three cruise lines stocks have reacted negatively to CCL's Third Quarter report. 

 

IMO: Restructuring is still on the table.

 

Early Hours: 

Green bar is the DOW.

 

Red is CCL. Blue is NCL. Purple is RCL. All three taking an early beating.

 

image.png.a3b7d8aca64d683399685cd59892af82.png

 

 

 

Call starting now, from what I saw in the report, nothing was terrible, they just missed Wall St. expectations....  Nothing else changed, they are still making more then last quarter, etc, etc.  Good day to be a short though.

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3 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Call starting now, from what I saw in the report, nothing was terrible, they just missed Wall St. expectations....  Nothing else changed, they are still making more then last quarter, etc, etc.  Good day to be a short though.

 

The spin on this is terrific!! I broke down my thoughts point by point in the stock thread. The only reason their EBITDA is positive is the dilution of another 1.5 Billion in stock. 

 

Keep in mind, they lost more money during the BEST three months of the year (June, July, and August). Based on everything I can see, Q4 occupancy is significantly lower than pre-pandemic. Q4 report could be the nail in the coffin. 

 

At this moment they are trading at $7.68. I believe that may be lower than the lowest in March of 2020. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-third-131500116.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

Edited by BermudaBound2014
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26 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

The spin on this is terrific!! I broke down my thoughts point by point in the stock thread. The only reason their EBITDA is positive is the dilution of another 1.5 Billion in stock. 

 

Keep in mind, they lost more money during the BEST three months of the year (June, July, and August). Based on everything I can see, Q4 occupancy is significantly lower than pre-pandemic. Q4 report could be the nail in the coffin. 

 

At this moment they are trading at $7.68. I believe that may be lower than the lowest in March of 2020. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carnival-corporation-plc-provides-third-131500116.html?fr=yhssrp_catchall

It almost touched 7 flat.  Wow.  So how many shorts do you still have open?  I know it may be crazy to say but I would be itching to close them after a week of re-testing June lows capped off by a Friday like this for all 3 of the cruise stocks.

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Just now, oteixeira said:

It almost touched 7 flat.  Wow.  So how many shorts do you still have open?  I know it may be crazy to say but I would be itching to close them after a week of re-testing June lows capped off by a Friday like this for all 3 of the cruise stocks.

 

I'm still holding all my shorts in all 3 companies that I purchased in July of 2021. I've actually added to my shorts over time. I've made 80% on CCL. Around 60% on NCLH and RCL shorts. I have a magic number plugged in to sell 80% of the shorts I've accumulated and CCL is flirting with that number. I will ride the other 20% to Chapter 11. Right now I could sell and pay 4 months in Maui 2023 (which, if you remember, was my goal). The only thing I've made money on this year is shorts, the rest of my portfolio has taken a beating. 

 

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I'm still holding all my shorts in all 3 companies that I purchased in July of 2021. I've actually added to my shorts over time. I've made 80% on CCL. Around 60% on NCLH and RCL shorts. I have a magic number plugged in to sell 80% of the shorts I've accumulated and CCL is flirting with that number. I will ride the other 20% to Chapter 11. Right now I could sell and pay 4 months in Maui 2023 (which, if you remember, was my goal). The only thing I've made money on this year is shorts, the rest of my portfolio has taken a beating. 

 

 

 

 

I have made about 3% on covered calls, which is a very small number compared to what the entire portfolio I have has lost.

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