SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[TrulyBlonde]

7 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

I do not do that.  The Market will do what the Market does and it will impact my investments in whatever way that is.  I am satisfied with what I hold.  There's no good purpose, at least for me, to check frequently.

 

One exception to that is a particular company that I am keeping my eye with the question as to whether I am still satisfied with the company and/or it's performance.  If the stock is down, should I sell and take a loss?  And, if I still like the company, buy it back after the wash rule days are over?  

As a former stockbroker, it is just something I have always done. I always want to know if I need to reposition myself with either my stocks, bonds, or cash. It still sickens me and I feel sorry for those that really cannot afford to take the losses.

[AmazedByCruising]

4 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

It still sickens me and I feel sorry for those that really cannot afford to take the losses.

 

What's "cannot afford to takes the losses"? Most people have zero investments, at most they have 5k in savings. The clients who lost a lot of money gambled to step up, but unfortunately have to step down on the ladder towards being Elon Musk. Not nice, but not leading to hunger either. You didn't tell them to gamble, they asked you. Many got lucky, some didn't. Their problem is certainly not yours.  

 

[TrulyBlonde]

11 hours ago, AmazedByCruising said:

 

What's "cannot afford to takes the losses"? Most people have zero investments, at most they have 5k in savings. The clients who lost a lot of money gambled to step up, but unfortunately have to step down on the ladder towards being Elon Musk. Not nice, but not leading to hunger either. You didn't tell them to gamble, they asked you. Many got lucky, some didn't. Their problem is certainly not yours.  

 

OK Mr. Compassionate 😞

[RetiredandTravel]

3 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

OK Mr. Compassionate 😞

 

Let them eat cake!

[Randyk47]

This morning local news introduced, at least to me, a new economic “measure” that they called “The Pawn Shop” meter.  They interviewed two or three owners of local pawn shops who all reported an upswing in people pawning items.  Totally unscientific and highly anecdotal but interesting nonetheless.   One or two of the owners said most people who were pawning items cited increased food and gas prices.  The news talking heads added that it also doesn’t help that pandemic driven incentives like the out and out government handouts, rent freezes, utility forgiveness programs, etc., have virtually disappeared.  They also noted that after months and months of employers complaining about not being able to fill jobs they are reporting more interest and applicants in the last few weeks.  While hitting more at the lower income range, and probably not likely cruise customers,  it sounds like the inflation squeeze is on.  

[crusinbanjo]

28 minutes ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

Let them eat cake!

Personally I like cake!

[RetiredandTravel]

4 minutes ago, crusinbanjo said:

Personally I like cake!

 

Thats nice.

[highplanesdrifters]

3 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

Thats nice.

I like nice cake.  Especially when someone brings it to me on a ship!

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

Personally I like cake!

 

German Chocolate or Carrot Cake are my preferences.  

 

4 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

a new economic “measure” that they called “The Pawn Shop” meter.  They interviewed two or three owners of local pawn shops who all reported an upswing in people pawning items.  Totally unscientific and highly anecdotal but interesting nonetheless.  

 

I think I have heard of this during the 2008-2009 economic crisis.  History is so cyclic!  Yet, we are so good, as a society, at failing to learn.  

 

4 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

The news talking heads added that it also doesn’t help that pandemic driven incentives like the out and out government handouts, rent freezes, utility forgiveness programs, etc.

 

But, what would have happened if those incentives had not been available?  

[RetiredandTravel]

45 minutes ago, highplanesdrifters said:

I like nice cake.  Especially when someone brings it to me on a ship!

 

 

I like ice cream more than cake but will eat cake with ice cream.  After the talking heads babbled about it for 6 months we finally actually have an inverted yield curve.  Maybe it won't be so bad this time.  

Edited July 15, 2022 by RetiredandTravel

[Catlover54]

4 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

I like nice cake.  Especially when someone brings it to me on a ship!

 

Like this black forest cake version on the Moon a few months ago:

 

 

[crusinbanjo]

14 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

I like nice cake.  Especially when someone brings it to me on a ship!

Yes, here’s my favorite.  Not exactly all cake, but close enough I think

[Randyk47]

15 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

German Chocolate or Carrot Cake are my preferences.  

 

 

I think I have heard of this during the 2008-2009 economic crisis.  History is so cyclic!  Yet, we are so good, as a society, at failing to learn.  

 

 

But, what would have happened if those incentives had not been available?  

As bad as it was during the initial onset of the pandemic I agree that the government had to step in.   The incentives were warranted, necessary, and I hesitate to think what it would have been like without them.  That said it is a two edged sword and historically we know that massive government programs almost always leads to inflation.   Again, much needed but there are consequences.

[TLCOhio]

19 hours ago, Randyk47 said:

This morning local news introduced, at least to me, a new economic “measure” that they called “The Pawn Shop” meter.  They interviewed two or three owners of local pawn shops who all reported an upswing in people pawning items.  Totally unscientific and highly anecdotal but interesting nonetheless. 

 

Yes, interesting "economic measure" in checking with the "Pawn Shop Meter" as an indicator being offered by Randy.  Appreciate these great follow-ups on cruise ship cake.  Love Black Forrest cake!!  .The visual from Catlover54 looks super wonderful.  Very tasty!!!  

 

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines as to how they were viewed by the financial traders.  Some differences in how Royal Caribbean was more rocky/up-and-down than what happened with Carnival and Norwegian last week.  

 

On Thursday, July 14, RCL hit a 52-week low of $31.10.  Wall Street is still not very confident that a return to profitability is that close.  Right or wrong?  Predictions for next week or next month?  Is now a good time to buy cruise ship stocks?

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Dubrovnik!  Nice visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this super scenic and historic location. Over 48,860 views.    

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439227

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines during this past week.  Rocky or more like a roller coaster?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

 

 

For the past three months, the below WSJ chart shows how Royal Caribbean has been headed on the downward slide/trend during this period since mid-April 2022.:

[crusinbanjo]

All of the cruise lines will not be clear of rocky shoals for some time.  Many loyal passengers have not cruised since 2020, that can’t be good and with the continued restrictions, protocols and airline chaotic schedules many continue to hold back.  Mrs Banjo and I are hoping to return to cruising in 2023, but at this moment our return is still not certain.  Stock markets don’t like uncertainties and the cruise lines, right now, are speculative at best.  I am hopeful that things will become somewhat stable and reliable in the cruising world.  That is the only thing that will return the cruise lines back to profitability.    Just my 2 cents.

[TLCOhio]

32 minutes ago, Randyk47 said:

As bad as it was during the initial onset of the pandemic I agree that the government had to step in.   The incentives were warranted, necessary, and I hesitate to think what it would have been like without them.  That said it is a two edged sword and historically we know that massive government programs almost always leads to inflation.   Again, much needed but there are consequences.

 

Very good summary above by Randy.  Yes, these "economic stimulus"  government actions have been "two-edged-swords".  Keynesian economics (thanks to British economist John Maynard Keynes) always looks good on the front-end as politicians are so very, very good at spending money during challenged times.  

 

BUT, when the economy is back in good times, they cannot stop spending, nor raise taxes to cover what they had dished out earlier.  Then, the debt level goes up . . . and UP!!  Then, the currency value gets watered down and we have serious inflation!!  Surprised?  Nice economic theory, but how does it work in real life?  For those living on a fixed income and/or off of low-yielding assets, inflation is a cruel tax caused by governmental malpractice??  Cruise lines are caught in the middle and challenged by these economic pressures.  Right?

 

Below are a couple of our "Let them eat cake" (or dessert) examples .  Fun sharing these great memories!!!

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 44,995 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

 

From our 2016 Silver Cloud South Africa sailing, below are a couple of "tasty treat" examples.  Make you hungry?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these visuals larger/better!)

 

[RetiredandTravel]

Cake with ice cream now that's what I'm talking about.  Totally agree CrusinBanjo we have no intention of going on a cruise until all the protocols (except vaccination) are removed.   On the market front the legend of "The Oracle of Ohio" lives on, back on June 30 when cruise stock prices were in a downward death spiral "The Oracle" posted this thread saying "buy, buy, buy?".  Notice the CCL price (8.13) & timing, the stock bottomed 2 minutes later at $8.10.   We are in the midst of greatness my friends. 

 

 

On 6/30/2022 at 10:15 AM, TLCOhio said:

 

Want some more "buying opportunities"??  See below for the latest from the Wall Street financial experts.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal early morning today, below is the chart for Carnival.  Not only was yesterday bad for this major cruise stocks, but it has affected all three companies.  

 

Down, down has been the trend for the past two days.  A new 52-week low for Carnival.  Ready to get out your checkbook and buy, buy, buy??

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

[TLCOhio]

1 minute ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Totally agree CrusinBanjo we have no intention of going on a cruise until all the protocols (except vaccination) are removed.

 

Understand fully the hesitation to be getting back on a cruise ship right now.  Dr. Fauci is now back to saying, maybe, mask up in interior spaces, if and if.  Canada has just reversed course, somewhat, and is now saying that there will be mandatory "random" Covid testing of fully vaccinated visitors when landing at their four major airports.  If you do not pass this off-site testing, you are in quarantine for ten days.  Is that a fun risk?  How good or bad will your "random" chances be for such required, off-site airport testing?

 

From MSN News and a financial news source this morning, they had this headline: “Cruises could be this summer's cheapest travel option with itineraries going for as low as $29 a day” with these highlights: “There are currently 45 cruises sailing for $50 a day or less through 2022. Vacationing this summer has already shaped up to be 'hellish' and expensive. Airlines have canceled thousands of flights. But amid these skyrocketing prices, chaotic travel stories, and inflation, there's one glimmer of hope for budget travelers still looking for a relaxing getaway this year: cruises, many of which are sailing for under $100 a day.”

 

Sound good?  Maybe.  But who wants to sail in the Caribbean later this summer or in the early fall?  Getting to Europe and/or other distant international locations is a major "roll of the dice" with the current air travel messes.  Right?  

 

But for the next six to twelve months, how do the cruise lines restore their financial stability (profits?) and normality when they are cutting prices in a period of rising fuel, food, debt and staffing inflationary costs?

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/cruises-could-be-this-summers-cheapest-travel-option-with-itineraries-going-for-as-low-as-2429-a-day/ar-AAZDSJ2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast on the Silver Spirit.  Now at 32,421 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

[highplanesdrifters]

19 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

 

 

I like ice cream more than cake but will eat cake with ice cream.  After the talking heads babbled about it for 6 months we finally actually have an inverted yield curve.  Maybe it won't be so bad this time.  

It's different this time.🤣

No really it is different this time.🤣🤣🤣

 

And now for some Ice Cream Cake.

[crusinbanjo]

On 7/16/2022 at 9:44 AM, RetiredandTravel said:

Cake with ice cream now that's what I'm talking about.  Totally agree CrusinBanjo we have no intention of going on a cruise until all the protocols (except vaccination) are removed.   On the market front the legend of "The Oracle of Ohio" lives on, back on June 30 when cruise stock prices were in a downward death spiral "The Oracle" posted this thread saying "buy, buy, buy?".  Notice the CCL price (8.13) & timing, the stock bottomed 2 minutes later at $8.10.   We are in the midst of greatness my friends. 

 

 

 

I suspect “The Oracle” could  be trading on the stocks.  Any tweet from him will almost certainly have a significant impact on a stock price, that he or his company might take advantage of.  I have no knowledge that this is actually happening, but scenarios like this seem to happen, (coincidentally of course), many times by many influential folks.

Edited July 17, 2022 by crusinbanjo
Spelling

[rkacruiser]

6 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

I suspect “The Oracle” could  be trading on the stocks.

 

I think I have read him saying that he is not an investor in cruise line stocks.  

 

On 7/16/2022 at 8:52 AM, TLCOhio said:

From the Wall Street Journal late Friday afternoon, below are their charts for the three major cruise lines as to how they were viewed by the financial traders.  Some differences in how Royal Caribbean was more rocky/up-and-down than what happened with Carnival and Norwegian last week.

 

The charts are quite interesting and one wonders why the differences between RCL and the other two.

 

There seems to be disagreements among those analysts that cover cruise lines.  Morgan Stanley's analyst, as most know, was very bearish and MS's rating is 3 for CCL.  Morningstar, however, gives it a 1 and 5 Stars.  Reading Morningstar's report, they provide good reasons for that rating.  And, in all of their metrics, I think, a 5 Star rating is achieved and is higher than the previous rating for that metric.  

[rkacruiser]

On 7/16/2022 at 8:35 AM, Randyk47 said:

As bad as it was during the initial onset of the pandemic I agree that the government had to step in.   The incentives were warranted, necessary, and I hesitate to think what it would have been like without them.  That said it is a two edged sword and historically we know that massive government programs almost always leads to inflation.   Again, much needed but there are consequences.

 

I agree.  My opinion as to why we are now in the economic "soup" we are in:  from the outset of when the Federal money spigots were opened, money was disbursed without proper controls, without proper oversight as to who was receiving the money and whether those who were "eligible" for payments had a genuine need for that money.  An example:  an employee (classified as "essential") with a family, earning a good salary but whose salary allowed them to be eligible for Federal pandemic emergency money received the benefits whether they needed the money or not.  (I know of a specific situation where this happened.  The money was banked and saved for their children's education and it prevented the breadwinner from considering a second job that, in the past, he would have probably taken.)

 

On 7/16/2022 at 9:25 AM, TLCOhio said:

when the economy is back in good times, they cannot stop spending, nor raise taxes to cover what they had dished out earlier.

 

Bad times or good times, the political mantra is to CUT TAXES while our infrastructure crumbles around us and we have our "political wise persons" visit collapsed bridges and offer "prayers and thoughts".  Terry, our own State's General Assembly is exhibit #1 for this.  Among their top three priorities is to keep cutting taxes with one State Senator even introducing a Bill to eliminate the State Income Tax.  

[highplanesdrifters]

@rkacruiserStimmie distribution, you hit the nail on the head. Should have been limited and targeted. Said me looking in my rear view mirror.😉

 

In the meantime for the chartists out there...... 

Will she or won't she?

Should I cash in my gold bars to pay for my next cruise before they melt? 

[RetiredandTravel]

11 hours ago, highplanesdrifters said:

@rkacruiserStimmie distribution, you hit the nail on the head. Should have been limited and targeted. Said me looking in my rear view mirror.😉

 

In the meantime for the chartists out there...... 

Will she or won't she?

Should I cash in my gold bars to pay for my next cruise before they melt? 

 

 

Gold & Bitcoin are inflation hedges.  🙄 Keep trying to get my bride to melt down a few things to pay for our next trip, no luck so far I'll keep you posted.

[highplanesdrifters]

3 hours ago, RetiredandTravel said:

Gold & Bitcoin are inflation hedges

Or so the Bitcoin ads tell everyone.😃  in the last year Bitcoin price cut by 2/3s, Inflation at historic highs......hmmmmm....guess we won't see that in the Superbowl ads. Plus, it's  equity correlated now. Gee, can you tell I'm not a Crypto fan. 

 

We'll  see what the BOJ and ECB do with rates this Thursday. Cruise lines that locked in their debt servicing earlier are looking pretty good. 

 

Tell her to melt now and you'll buy her some new stuff when it falls off the cliff. If it doesn't.....well...... there are always CZs and Vermeil. 😂😂😂