HAL. As an Investment?

[rkacruiser]

17 hours ago, Hlitner said:

As to HAL vessels, it is hard to imagine MSC being interested in any of their ships except the newest vessels....and even that is not a good fit for MSC.

 

What about Volendam and Zaandam?  MSC acquired some the former First Festival ships and made them revenue producers apparently.  Have not sailed on Armonia, but she has her devotees.  

 

17 hours ago, Hlitner said:

we were pleasantly surprised to renew our friendship with a previous HAL Officer who had left HAL to work for MSC

 

The Cruise Director on MSC Meraviglia on my cruise in January, 2020 was a well regarded CD for HAL who had been one of their world cruise CD's.  MSC recruited him out of retirement.

 

 

17 hours ago, Hlitner said:

Guess we shall all have to wait and see how this plays out, but MSC does have a very interesting product. 

 

I would not bet against MSC.  Somehow, someway, CCL and RCI will find a way to survive in whatever new cruising environment that will exist.  I hope; I believe.    NCLH:  if one is a contrarian investor, and has the "stomach" for whatever happens with the stock price, it might be worth a few dollars.  But, as such as an investor in JCP, one needs to know "when to fold" as Kenny Rogers once sang.  

[LocoLoco1]

HUGE numbers of ‘rentable beds’ being built lately; mostly shiny bling-bling Mega-ships and a coupla Uber elegant vessels. You just KNOW those vessels will sail ASAP no matter who owns them

[mcrcruiser]

12 hours ago, LocoLoco1 said:

HUGE numbers of ‘rentable beds’ being built lately; mostly shiny bling-bling Mega-ships and a coupla Uber elegant vessels. You just KNOW those vessels will sail ASAP no matter who owns them

Most pax will only sail on cruise ships if every one on the ship has been vaccinated because who would want to be confined to their cabins or worse .Thus ,this then mandates that for the ships to sail  we all need to provide proof of being vaccinated to board

[LocoLoco1]

43 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Most pax will only sail on cruise ships if every one on the ship has been vaccinated because who would want to be confined to their cabins or worse .Thus ,this then mandates that for the ships to sail  we all need to provide proof of being vaccinated to board

I think so too. The Ports o Call Tours etc. will have to come up with something too. Sounds like trying to herd cats for some time yet. Meanwhile, the Accounting Dept having migraines...

[Crazy For Cats]

CCL is up again this morning.  I’m hoping that it continues to climb.  At some point I’d like to sell shares to either break even or minimize the loss.  

[Hlitner]

Just some more about MSC.  This is still a privately owned cruise line not beholden to stockholders or the markets.  Prior to COVID they were expanding by building approximately 2 new ships per year and had contracts/options for continuous new builds through the next several years.  Among those contractual obligations are the building of 4 smaller vessels that will be operated as an upscale division based on the Yacht Club level of service (this is the only way we cruise on MSC).   It is very unlikely that MSC will purchase older vessels since this does not fit their current business plan.   While the other major cruise lines have been reducing their fleets (during COVID) MSC seems willing to continue with their expansion plans (with some slow downs related to construction delays).  

 

I have pointed out (in other posts) that MSC has a huge advantage over the other major cruise companies (i.e. CCL, RCI and Norwegian Holdings) because of their massive cargo operation (they are the  2nd largest container ship company in the world with over 450 ships)  continues to operate and generate revenue.  If they choose (and this is a business decision) they can subsidize their own cruise division with revenue from the cargo side...and also have a tremendous borrowing capacity based on their assets and cargo market share.  If MSC were to go public I would be likely to invest in this company.

 

Hank

[Steve Q]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/carnival-plans-to-sell-1-billion-in-fresh-stock-as-cruise-ships-remain-in-the-docks-11614030118?mod=mw_latestnews

 

Carnival is raising additional funds again. One analyst, however, does state that he believes that cruising could once again begin by the 4th quarter of 2021. Let’s hope.

[drowelf]

Both RCL and CCL took a major pop up today. Both my advisor and I are not sure why. Sure 2022 bookings are through the roof, but how much of that is FCC vs real $$$. 

Edited February 22, 2021 by drowelf

[rodndonna]

25 minutes ago, drowelf said:

Both RCL and CCL took a major pop up today. Both my advisor and I are not sure why. Sure 2022 bookings are through the roof, but how much of that is FCC vs real $$$. 

 

In January CCL was reporting 60% were non FCC.

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Carnival-Corp-says-advanced-bookings-trending-up

 

We're part of the 60% 😀

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, rodndonna said:

 

In January CCL was reporting 60% were non FCC.

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Carnival-Corp-says-advanced-bookings-trending-up

 

We're part of the 60% 😀

 

1 hour ago, drowelf said:

Both RCL and CCL took a major pop up today. Both my advisor and I are not sure why. Sure 2022 bookings are through the roof, but how much of that is FCC vs real $$$. 

 

Has any one ever heard of a Ponzi scheme?  I surely hope that is not what the cruise companies are doing.  But, if bankruptcy happens for any of these companies....?  

 

Folks, please use your money to do with it what you wish to do.  Bargains and special offers are most attractive to encourage bookings.  I'll wait awhile before I put any money into another cruise booking.  

 

But, as an investor in both RCI and CCL, thank you very much for helping to keep my Companies "afloat" by your future cruise bookings.  

 

 

[rodndonna]

27 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

 

Has any one ever heard of a Ponzi scheme?  I surely hope that is not what the cruise companies are doing.  But, if bankruptcy happens for any of these companies....?  

 

Folks, please use your money to do with it what you wish to do.  Bargains and special offers are most attractive to encourage bookings.  I'll wait awhile before I put any money into another cruise booking.  

 

But, as an investor in both RCI and CCL, thank you very much for helping to keep my Companies "afloat" by your future cruise bookings.  

 

 

 

I am not sure why you wouldn't just pull your investments  if you see that much risk?  If they go bankrupt, we are out the cost of a cruise (or deposit), but you are also out your investment.  

 

Throwing a deposit down ($350) on a cruise presents less risk than holding investments.

 

[rkacruiser]

2 minutes ago, rodndonna said:

 

I am not sure why you wouldn't just pull your investments  if you see that much risk?  If they go bankrupt, we are out the cost of a cruise (or deposit), but you are also out your investment.  

 

Throwing a deposit down ($350) on a cruise presents less risk than holding investments.

 

 

Well, what you say is true.  Why don't I sell?  There is a bit of a streak of contrarian in me as to investments.  

 

During 2008-2009, RCI dropped like a rock and I sold; CCL dropped, but not by so much.  I held CCl.   When I thought RCI had reached close to a bottom, which it did, I re-invested just above that bottom price.  RCI has been an excellent performer since then and has continued to keeping me "above water".  CCL has been a good performer as well and, in hindsight, should have bought more during that time period.  Re-investing dividends have been beneficial.  

 

The products of both companies are products in which I believe.  The Executives of both companies are executives in which I believe.  Can you envision Micky Arison or Richard Fain on a street corner in Miami selling apples?  Somehow, someway, both of these companies will find a way to survive.  That's what I believe.

 

If they don't and my investments in them go down the toilet:  as one who has learned that one ought to have many "baskets" in which to put one's savings and investments, there will still be ample funds--God willing--to keep me "afloat".  

 

 

[iancal]

From my perspective it is not whether or not CCL is a good investment.  It is about how my investment funds work for us.

 

Should we  be investing in CCL, RCI,  Boeing, Walmart...whatever.   When we invest it has everything to do with what return we expect on the investment, either short or long term,  and the probability or risk that we will attain that return.   

 

If we believe that Acme is a better investment, higher returns for less risk, than CCL then our decision will have been made.  We are no more married to a particular stock than we are to a cruise line.

 

I think the smart money has already been and gone.  Those who bought in at 9 ish and sold for 18 not only doubled their money, they did so in a very short time period.  

Edited February 23, 2021 by iancal

[LocoLoco1]

Risk/Reward Ratios are the Name of the Game. Cruiselines are no exception. Laughable now to recall the not-too-distant past when GE at $30/sh. was 24/K Gold, ideal for widows and orphans. Or Exxon... XON. Or Kinder-Morgan at $40. Times indeed change. 

[rodndonna]

10 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Well, what you say is true.  Why don't I sell?  There is a bit of a streak of contrarian in me as to investments.  

 

During 2008-2009, RCI dropped like a rock and I sold; CCL dropped, but not by so much.  I held CCl.   When I thought RCI had reached close to a bottom, which it did, I re-invested just above that bottom price.  RCI has been an excellent performer since then and has continued to keeping me "above water".  CCL has been a good performer as well and, in hindsight, should have bought more during that time period.  Re-investing dividends have been beneficial.  

 

The products of both companies are products in which I believe.  The Executives of both companies are executives in which I believe.  Can you envision Micky Arison or Richard Fain on a street corner in Miami selling apples?  Somehow, someway, both of these companies will find a way to survive.  That's what I believe.

 

If they don't and my investments in them go down the toilet:  as one who has learned that one ought to have many "baskets" in which to put one's savings and investments, there will still be ample funds--God willing--to keep me "afloat".  

 

 

 

Yup - I understand that. It is why many years ago made the decision we had to use a financial planner, we don't have the stomach for it. I recall someone saying or reading something to the effect - "selecting and buying investments is the easy part, selling is the hard part because there is an emotional component". For us an advisor takes away the emotional component.

 

The year before Covid we asked our advisor to buy us 100 CCL (for the OBC benefit). He did the parental advice  "I will if you really want ..buuut...."  so we didn't bother (I think he talked us into Disney at that time). A month ago, we rang him and said "if they haven't gone bankrupt yet, we figure they are going to make it through - buy us 100 CCL".  This time he didn't laugh at or dissuade us so thats positive! 😀

[iancal]

I know some colleagues who failed to sell stock in their company stock plan and/or failed to exercise what could have been extremely lucrative stock options because their attachment to their employer blinded them from investment realities.   Emotion overtook prudent financial decision making.  Some in the mid six and seven figure opportunity ranges.

 

Our investment advisor recommended we exercise the last of our stock options and sell our remaining shares when we retired.  The stock was at 52.   The smarties at work insisted it was going to 75.    We took our advisor's advice and exercised.  It never went above 54 and within a year it was down to 22, our strike price on that last batch.

Edited February 23, 2021 by iancal

[mrmoviezombie]

Vanguard index funds for the win. It's a mug's game picking stocks. Why Index Funds Are The Best

 

[LocoLoco1]

I’ve enjoyed this repartee; however, what we DON’T know is if HAL’s demographics make HAL a future liability for CCL. Going forward, 40% of it’s bookings are simply FCC’s, yes?? ... and no cruises over 5 days, much less Round-the-World. And Mega-ships with Go-cart tracks?? This makes HAL appear a tad out of synch with cruising’s future. Me? I am now vaccinated & booked with a TON of FCC’s but I am in my Seventies, so if I get cancelled yet again I foresee my next cruise as less than ideal to put it mildly. Am I alone on all this??

[iancal]

Other than itineraries we have never seen much of a difference in the HAL product compared that that of several other mass market cruise lines.  And we feel the same about those other cruise lines. 

 

We feel the market has become very homogeneous and the product very inconsistent over the past number of years.

 

That is why we tend to focus on itinerary, ship, and price well before cruise line.  We have no idea what changes in the market and the offerings will transpire post covid.  It is wait and see for us....same for all other travel products.  Not booking anything, not giving any vendor a dime of our money.

Edited February 23, 2021 by iancal

[drowelf]

3 hours ago, iancal said:

That is why we tend to focus on itinerary, ship, and price well before cruise line.  We have no idea what changes in the market and the offerings will transpire post covid.  It is wait and see for us....same for all other travel products.  Not booking anything, not giving any vendor a dime of our money.

For us, the itinerary, ship and price has always been the deciding factors. Which for the past decade or so has always ended up being HAL. We like smaller ships with unique itineraries, but with demise of our Favorite (Prinsendam), we have had to look more at other lines. We cruise to see new places and have yet to do any major repeat of ports. The ship is not the destination for us. The place the ships stops at are the destinations. All we are looking for onboard is comfortable accommodations, decent food and some quality entertainment in the evenings and on sea days. The lack of activities on sea days and the decline in the evening entertainment is probably one of the major disappointing changes HAL has made over the past 5 years. We are also concerned with the demise of the on-board Port Experts and the assignment of these duties to the CD. 

 

The pandemic has pretty much shut us down for 2020 & 2021. But we do have 2 cruises on the books for 2022, both are non-HAL and will be our first foray into the ~3000 passenger ship type. One of the them will also be our first major repeat itinerary (SA/Antarctica). 

 

So we will just have to see. I think the whole cruising game/experience is going to be very different in the future and we will have to experience it for ourselves and see if that still appeals to us as a major form of travel. I also expect costs to be higher for the next 3-5 years as the cruise lines have to make some major $$ to pay off the staggering amount of debt they are accumulating at this point. 

[rodndonna]

7 minutes ago, drowelf said:

I also expect costs to be higher for the next 3-5 years as the cruise lines have to make some major $$ to pay off the staggering amount of debt they are accumulating at this point. 

 

I am thinking that will be the case as well. I am guessing the first 1-2 years restarting there will be better deals to entice folks back in (especially if sailing with restrictions). In 3 years or so you have to make up for the time (money) lost during Covid and the money lost in lower profits during that 1-2 years to years of re-establishing. 

 

I also predict that, regardless, in 3-5 years most of us will still be pulling out the Credit Cards and buying cruises - haha.

 

[iancal]

We will be very interested to see the prices and the offerings of the smaller cruise lines that have bought up some discarded ships from the majors.  Some at a fire sale prices.  These lines will presumably have less debt, will be more agile, and may present some attractive itinerary/price alternates to the major brands.

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, LocoLoco1 said:

am now vaccinated & booked with a TON of FCC’s but I am in my Seventies, so if I get cancelled yet again I foresee my next cruise as less than ideal to put it mildly. Am I alone on all this??

 

No FCC's in the bank and no cruises booked, but I am fully vaccinated and in the same age range as you.  The mind seems to operating "younger" than the rest of my body.  Whatever travel I am going to be able to do is also going to be "less than ideal".  

 

 

12 hours ago, rodndonna said:

A month ago, we rang him and said "if they haven't gone bankrupt yet, we figure they are going to make it through - buy us 100 CCL".  This time he didn't laugh at or dissuade us so thats positive! 😀

 

I have also used a financial advisor(s) and they have been well worth doing so.  As a sometimes contrarian investor, when I told him to buy some JCP when their price was heading South,  he was reluctant to do so, but he did.  He was right; I was wrong.  But, I did get a Capital Loss on my 1040 the next year.  

 

8 hours ago, mrmoviezombie said:

index funds

 

Yes!  As I have said in a previous post, I have "many baskets holding my eggs".  Some index funds are a part of my baskets.  

[rkacruiser]

16 minutes ago, iancal said:

We will be very interested to see the prices and the offerings of the smaller cruise lines that have bought up some discarded ships from the majors.  Some at a fire sale prices.  These lines will presumably have less debt, will be more agile, and may present some attractive itinerary/price alternates to the major brands.

 

Agree, the development of future of cruising will be interesting, indeed, for those of us so interested.

 

And, if their changes to the cruising experience are well received by those who do make bookings, how will that impact the major companies?  

[drowelf]

16 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

I have also used a financial advisor(s) and they have been well worth doing so.  As a sometimes contrarian investor, when I told him to buy some JCP when their price was heading South,  he was reluctant to do so, but he did.  He was right; I was wrong.  But, I did get a Capital Loss on my 1040 the next year.  

 

We consider our arrangement with our FA as a partnership of sorts. We've been working together for almost 25 years now. We often discuss the pros & cons of various investments. But at the end of the day, its my investments, so when I say buy or sell he executes, I'll listen to his opinion, but its my decision at the end. Over the years, we made some good picks, so not so good, we've sold some positions too soon and others too late, but we've outperformed the 20 year moderate risk target, so I'm pretty happy. We've left some good money on the table, but never taken any serious losses.