Is princess bilding new small ships?

[latebuyer]

We're discussing on the royal caribbean board how royal caribbean is only building large ships. Is that the case with princess? I prefer the smaller ships so wondering. Apparently holland america is still building smaller ships. Some think the future of the cruise ship industry is large ships. I hope not.

[Jeter02]

7 minutes ago, latebuyer said:

We're discussing on the royal caribbean board how royal caribbean is only building large ships. Is that the case with princess? I prefer the smaller ships so wondering. Apparently holland america is still building smaller ships. Some think the future of the cruise ship industry is large ships. I hope not.

Unfortunately none at the moment and not on the schedule that I'm aware of.

[Ken the cruiser]

Here's a Princess link that describes their "Next Generation" ship, the new Sun Princess.
 

Sun Princess - Our Next Generation Cruise Ship Arriving 2024 - Princess Cruises

[DCThunder]

42 minutes ago, latebuyer said:

We're discussing on the royal caribbean board how royal caribbean is only building large ships. Is that the case with princess? I prefer the smaller ships so wondering. Apparently holland america is still building smaller ships. Some think the future of the cruise ship industry is large ships. I hope not.

I'm not aware of HAL building ANY new ships, let alone small ones.  Many HAL cruisers think they should do so, and perhaps they are, but so far none are publicly announced.

[nasa1974]

Don't get me wrong but I don't mind the larger ships. The only problem I see is as the fleets get larger ships and the smaller ones are decommissioned, we may only get to two ports instead of three or four in a 7 day cruise. Either because the ship is too large or potential overcrowding at the port. Just my opinion.

[sirclean]

"Small" is relative.  The Sphere class ships have 'only' 4000 something passengers. That is 'small' compared to the ships Royal Caribbean is building!

 

Still, I agree with what you are saying. I preferred the old Star to most of the others (though it was sold off).  The Discovery and its sisters dont have the deck spaces I like to use when visiting Alaska, my favorite cruise.  (I really like the space above the bridge).

[snoozecrooze]

The short answer right now is, you won't get any new ships any time soon after the last ones that have already been announced are finally delivered (those being Sun and Star). This was widely reported at the end of last year from the Carnival Corporation CEO himself [read this].

 

Key quotes:

"We don't expect any new ships in 2026 and anticipate just one or two new-builds each year for several years thereafter," Weinstein said during the call, which came after the company reported yet another billion-dollar-plus loss for its most recent quarter.

 

"The shift away from new-ship growth comes as Carnival Corporation works toward paying down the massive debt it took on to survive the last three years when cruising ground to a halt due to the pandemic and revenue at cruise lines plummeted."

 

Meanwhile, their competitors have made sure to emphasize their strategy of going completely the other way (AKA expanding their way out of debt). Notably, Royal Caribbean Group said the following in this article:

 

"Our ambitions are to continue to grow each of our brands in their segments, because we think the segments that we are focused on ... have a lot of runway to them," Liberty told TPG. "They are all very underpenetrated globally."

 

Liberty said the company's decision-making process around new orders in the coming years would be less about the company's debt levels and "more about our strategy. It would be more about what is it costing to build a ship these days and the return profiles that we would need to see to order a ship."

 

Liberty said that, when it comes to capital spending, the high debt level that the company currently has would have a bigger effect on other, more discretionary projects that require heavy spending, such as overhauling older ships to make them more modern.

 

New ship ordering is "not where the pressure is [when it comes to capital spending]. The pressure is more around discretionary [capital spending]," he said. "It's not that we're not looking to invest. It's that our threshold to investment is higher as we right now have less discretionary capital."

 

So, make of that what you will. It's the situation CCL and the broader industry just happen to find themselves in and different leaders have mapped out different paths to escape the holes they're in. My (currently baseless) predictions are that Princess could definitely have an order by the late-2020s just in time for the youngest Grand-class vessels to hit 20 years old, and I feel the order could be made of ships measuring around 120,000 GT, but that's just if I'm being optimistic, and it all depends on the health of the company as well as the direction of travel trends. The days of smaller ships on Princess have long been numbered even before COVID.

[latebuyer]

Thanks. Too bad if there are no more small ships. I think i'll post on holland america board as someone on rci board thought a new ship was built in 2021.

[Hlitner]

I think the OP needs to be more specific as some folks consider 2500 passenger ships, small.  For us, a small cruise ship means less than 1000 passengers and this is now a market exclusively for the so-called Premium and Luxury Lines.  Mass market lines, like Princess, HAL, Carnvial, etc can no longer afford to operate those kind of ships within the price range normally accepted for this class of ship.  

 

We have cruised on boats as small as 20 passengers (truly wonderful) and like the smaller Seabourn ships (450 passenger).  By the way, my first RCCL (now RCI) ship was the Sun Viking which carried about 850 passengers.  In those days, it was considered a big ship :).  Our first cruise was on NCLs Sunward II which carried about 700 passengers and was a little over 14,000 tons!  

 

All the mass market lines have moved to larger ships because they can take better advantage of the economies of scale.  Consider that a 6000 passenger ship need to pay 1 Captain (Master) and 1 Chief Engineer.  The 450 passenger Seabourn ships also must carry 1 Captain and 1 Chief Engineer.  As long as a cruise line can sell most of the berths, those huge ships make economic sense.  On the other hand, the vary size of the ships does limit their ports.  A 600 passenger ship can cruise up the Garonne River and dock in downtown Bordeaux.   The 4000 passenger ship would have to dock at Le Verdun sur Mer, which is a good 30 minute drive from town.  It is like that with many ports around the world.

 

Hank

[DCThunder]

5 minutes ago, latebuyer said:

Thanks. Too bad if there are no more small ships. I think i'll post on holland america board as someone on rci board thought a new ship was built in 2021.

That would be Rotterdam.  But while Rotterdam is "small" compared to the "Monstrosity of the Seas" class ships of other lines, it still has a capacity of around 3200 passengers. 

[Guest ldtr]

7 minutes ago, DCThunder said:

That would be Rotterdam.  But while Rotterdam is "small" compared to the "Monstrosity of the Seas" class ships of other lines, it still has a capacity of around 3200 passengers. 

While on might be able to get to 3200 on the Rotterdam. It normal occupancy is 2668 and I have yet to see a HAL ship sailing at 119% occupancy.

[DCThunder]

12 minutes ago, ldtr said:

While on might be able to get to 3200 on the Rotterdam. It normal occupancy is 2668 and I have yet to see a HAL ship sailing at 119% occupancy.

I just quoted the figure from CruiseDeckPlans, so take that up with them.

 

ROTTERDAM DECK PLAN VIEW AT CRUISEDECKPLANS SHOWING THE NEWEST DECK PLAN LAYOUTS, PUBLIC VENUES AND STATEROOM PICTURES AND OUR OWN DECK PLAN PDF (PRINTABLE VERSION). ROTTERDAM CRUISE SHIP DECK PLAN HAS 1339 STATEROOMS FOR UP TO 3214 PASSENGERS SERVED BY 1025 CREW. THERE ARE 13 PASSENGER DECKS, 8 WITH CABINS. YOU CAN EXPECT A SPACE RATIO OF 31% ON THIS SHIP.

[Guest ldtr]

1 minute ago, DCThunder said:

I just quoted the figure from CruiseDeckPlans, so take that up with them.

 

ROTTERDAM DECK PLAN VIEW AT CRUISEDECKPLANS SHOWING THE NEWEST DECK PLAN LAYOUTS, PUBLIC VENUES AND STATEROOM PICTURES AND OUR OWN DECK PLAN PDF (PRINTABLE VERSION). ROTTERDAM CRUISE SHIP DECK PLAN HAS 1339 STATEROOMS FOR UP TO 3214 PASSENGERS SERVED BY 1025 CREW. THERE ARE 13 PASSENGER DECKS, 8 WITH CABINS. YOU CAN EXPECT A SPACE RATIO OF 31% ON THIS SHIP.

Usually when comparing ship sizes one uses lower berth capacity (2 per cabin). While it may have that as absolute capacity it is a number that is really not ever reached. Even during the peak season for children a HAL ship going over 110 % would be extremely rare. Most HAL cruises would be below 105% 

[DCThunder]

27 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Usually when comparing ship sizes one uses lower berth capacity (2 per cabin). While it may have that as absolute capacity it is a number that is really not ever reached. Even during the peak season for children a HAL ship going over 110 % would be extremely rare. Most HAL cruises would be below 105% 

I understand how that works, but thanks.  😎 

[latebuyer]

Thanks for posting about the rotterdam. Its good to know a smallish ship has been built. And i'm from Vancouver where the mega ships can't get under the lions gate bridge. I believe the crown princess comes to vancouver which i thought carried around 3000 passengers so maybe that size can get through.

[memoak]

We have tired of Royal class ships snd all the crowded venues Waited for 20 minutes for a table at sushi restaurant and the another hour for food. Pizzeria had a one hour wait for tables. This was a sea day on the Discovery this week. Going back to Grand class !!

[latebuyer]

I have a cruise credit for Royal Caribbean otherwise i would have tried out princess. I'm going on a small ship the brilliance of the seas. My parents are very fond of princess. Something about there being a central atrium.

[vakamalua]

By far, the two fastest growing segments of the travel industry:

• Luxury small (under 700) & even smaller yacht size (under 100) cruises and
• Private Jet & luxury adventure tours

These two types of trips are selling out within hours for two or three years out.

 

The travel market is changing along with the wants of new generations.  All the mass market cruise lines seem intent on exclusively building behemoth-size ships (4000+) but not sure this is a sustainable model for the future with so many ships to fill plying the same been-there done-that ports.  As global off-the-beaten path destinations appeal more to the next generations, the mass market model that the ship itself is the 'destination' will be less attractive

[VibeGuy]

Princess can barely make money with the Panamax ships as it is.  The economics of a 2000-lower berth or smaller ship vs closer to 4000 aren’t favourable - the highly paid portion of the officers and technical / hotel staff are one per ship, but you’re dividing the cost over fewer customers.  Fuel is the same issue - you might need 10 units per person with a 2000 guest ship but only 8 per person at 4000, to sail the same itinerary day.  
 

Princess doesn’t command the price premium that you need to run small ships.  They got the R-class ships (1400 lowers?) at truly scrap steel prices, and couldn’t make a buck.  
 

HAL can make money in the Panamax size range because they charge more per day for those sailings and people are willing to pay it.   So if Panamax and popular prices are going to exist anywhere in Carnival Corp & plc, it’s going to be HAL.  Luxury and small will be Seabourn.  
 

I actually think the comments by executive leadership about ship uptake in 2026 and beyond are a negotiating tactic with Fincantieri et al to obtain favourable export financing backed by their host countries, or lease-option structures or anything else that continues to grow capacity but keep the debt either super cheap and/or off-balance-sheet.   Adura is getting an entire new fleet but the acquisition costs and borrowing don’t land on CCL/CUK directly.   Fincantieri isn’t going to let the shipyards and the subcontractors go idle. 

[Hlitner]

Just to add to the last post, the "R" ships accommodate about 700 passengers.  They are still in service with lines like Oceania and Azamara.  

[VibeGuy]

Just now, Hlitner said:

Just to add to the last post, the "R" ships accommodate about 700 passengers.  They are still in service with lines like Oceania and Azamara.  

Thanks.  I couldn’t remember if they were 700 pax or 700 cabins.   
 

In the days of cheap bunker fuel and very cheap hotel-side labour, Princess printed money with 700 passenger ships but growing the business required cruising to become at least as cost-effective as land vacations and now a huge part of the value proposition is that it’s cheaper than a land vacation by a dramatic margin (you can take a family of four from the Midwest to Alaska for a week in a balcony cabin with air for about half the cost of a week at Disney World, as an example, even at 2023 prices). 
 

Carnival Corp and plc may not be filled with the greatest business minds of our time, but they can use Excel well enough.   Fincantieri absolutely could have delivered them something in the Icon-Class range (250,000GT) or a new gen Panamax (92,000 GT), but for where they think cruising is going to go over the ships’ useful lives, the sweet spot seems to be 175-185,000GT.  If Princess had a plan to be at a consistent $300/day basic fare they could absolutely go smaller and make money.  But their market is just too price sensitive. 

[RedIguana]

19 hours ago, latebuyer said:

Thanks for posting about the rotterdam. Its good to know a smallish ship has been built. And i'm from Vancouver where the mega ships can't get under the lions gate bridge. I believe the crown princess comes to vancouver which i thought carried around 3000 passengers so maybe that size can get through.

Was on the Rotterdam March of 2022. Wonderful ship. I was on the Crown out of Vancouver a few weeks ago. No problem with the bridge. I believe Ovation of the Seas was also sailing out of Vancouver, and she is pretty big at 168K tons or so (pictures going under the bridge are in a few posts). Not sure if there are tide height restrictions though.

[VibeGuy]

2 hours ago, RedIguana said:

Was on the Rotterdam March of 2022. Wonderful ship. I was on the Crown out of Vancouver a few weeks ago. No problem with the bridge. I believe Ovation of the Seas was also sailing out of Vancouver, and she is pretty big at 168K tons or so (pictures going under the bridge are in a few posts). Not sure if there are tide height restrictions though.

The Royal class has two problems from Vancouver.  One is clearance at the Lions Gate Bridge.  Any ship of a certain height regardless of passenger capacity or other design details is subject to these restrictions.   There are some departure and arrival times that get moved around to accommodate these height restrictions on many lines, largely due to tidal conditions. 
 

The other problem is more complicated than just size alone.  Enter Seymour Narrows.  It’s a channel about 2/3rds of the way up Vancouver Island and, for a variety reasons (geographic, hydrologic, meteorological) of  it is one of the more challenging stretches of water to navigate in vessels of any size.  The water flow is exceptionally turbulent.   In vessels with azimuthing propulsion, full engine power can be directed in any direction.  In vessels with conventional fixed propellers, like every Princess ship to date, directional control is mostly limited to the rudder and asymmetric thrust between the propellers.   Expert opinion from local pilots is that the manoeuvrability of the Royal class is insufficient relative to size and the conditions likely to be encountered in the Narrows and they won’t provide pilotage.  No pilotage, the insurers won’t cover the ship.  Technically it fits, technically they’re allowed to sail the waters, but if you can’t use a pilot and the insurance pools say you need to use a pilot in certain waters, this is where you end up.  

I think it’s possible to practically serve Vancouver with vessels up to about 175,000GT - it’s just hard to arrange more tonnage than that in a practical way and fit inside the various limitations.   Coincidentally, Sun and Star Princess will both be in that range and have more manoeuvrability than the Royal class (azmiuthing pod propulsion and brawnier bow thrusters).  
 

Princess doesn’t need to go bigger than that but their ability to be financially successful in their market space is improved by being closer to that than to 2000-passenger vessels. 

 

[cruisingrob21]

8 minutes ago, VibeGuy said:

The Royal class has two problems from Vancouver.  One is clearance at the Lions Gate Bridge.  Any ship of a certain height regardless of passenger capacity or other design details is subject to these restrictions.   There are some departure and arrival times that get moved around to accommodate these height restrictions on many lines, largely due to tidal conditions. 
 

The other problem is more complicated than just size alone.  Enter Seymour Narrows.  It’s a channel about 2/3rds of the way up Vancouver Island and, for a variety reasons (geographic, hydrologic, meteorological) of  it is one of the more challenging stretches of water to navigate in vessels of any size.  The water flow is exceptionally turbulent.   In vessels with azimuthing propulsion, full engine power can be directed in any direction.  In vessels with conventional fixed propellers, like every Princess ship to date, directional control is mostly limited to the rudder and asymmetric thrust between the propellers.   Expert opinion from local pilots is that the manoeuvrability of the Royal class is insufficient relative to size and the conditions likely to be encountered in the Narrows and they won’t provide pilotage.  No pilotage, the insurers won’t cover the ship.  Technically it fits, technically they’re allowed to sail the waters, but if you can’t use a pilot and the insurance pools say you need to use a pilot in certain waters, this is where you end up.  

I think it’s possible to practically serve Vancouver with vessels up to about 175,000GT - it’s just hard to arrange more tonnage than that in a practical way and fit inside the various limitations.   Coincidentally, Sun and Star Princess will both be in that range and have more manoeuvrability than the Royal class (azmiuthing pod propulsion and brawnier bow thrusters).  
 

Princess doesn’t need to go bigger than that but their ability to be financially successful in their market space is improved by being closer to that than to 2000-passenger vessels. 

 

Great post.

 

Seymour narrows is spectacular to sail through - if I recall its the most naturally turbulent channel in the world (for folks in fluid mechanics related fields, it has a reynolds number of over 10,000,000,000 which is impressive when "turbulent" conditions starts around 2900).  The rest of the inside passage is stunning to sail through.

 

Princess and the cruise industry is at the point where perhaps airlines were a few years back with very low prices.  If they could get you on at a loss, they could make up for it with bags, drinks, snacks, 'premium seating locations within the economy cabin', etc etc.  Coming out of covid, if they could get the boats 60 or 70% full, and with some strong onboard spending, they could break even or make a profit.  Now with the ships packed to the gills and people spending a lot, there is a lot of incentive to build bigger ships.  I think RCCL leadership indicated they can make money on oasis class ships if the ship is only 70% full due to scale.

 

Big ships will work for the cruise line for a while - in a year or two when prices have to come down because all the normal folks (non cruise critic posters 🙂 ) got their "every other year cruise fix" the demand should stabilize.  The lines will be left with fewer ships than before the pandemic but more capacity than before and ships that can go to fewer ports due to size restrictions.

 

But will the lines build smaller ships? - not until they have to.  If you want a smaller ship now without paying obscene prices, your choices are the older X ships, HAL ships, and a handful of older ships on other lines - most of which will be deployed on more far flung itineraries.

[VibeGuy]

If demand for exotic itineraries could sustain something the size of Island / RCI’s Radiance-class (Panamax), lines might be able to thread the needle and offer a broad library of interesting product at, say, $225/night vs $300.  HAL is the logical place in Carnivore Corp & plc to do so.