Silver Moon: Late Dec., Jan. Sailing Challenges/Questions??

[wyocruiser]

So, the US and UK did strike Yemen.

[Charli001]

Thank you, great info especially for fellow traveler’s who have booked cruises from Dubai to Mumbai. I’ve actually booked a back-to-back continuing on to Singapore, have my doubts if Dubai to Mumbai will go ahead.

Does anyone know how the moon will get to Mumbai presuming this cruise goes ahead. I’d like to know sooner than later.

 

Charli001 Sydney

[wyocruiser]

At this point, I don’t think anyone knows for sure what the plans are. This morning, SS said the cruise from Dubai was a “go,” but they seemed to have no details. One person who is going to Dubai a few days early said they are worried they will be sitting in their hotel room in Dubai and get an email from SS that the cruise has been canceled.

[CardowMD]

CNN now reporting and showing air strikes on Yemen. Doesn’t look good for the region right now. Think Moon is going to need to head back to Suez to get out of trouble.

[spinnaker2]

Looks like Moon headed to Suez.

Safe passage for all crew and pax.

[spinnaker2]

Moon in Sohkna?

It looks that way.

what will happen next?

[TLCOhio]

1 hour ago, spinnaker2 said:

Moon in Sohkna?  It looks that way.  what will happen next?

 

Yes, Spins, the Silver Moon is now in this small seashore port near Cairo and the lower end of the Suez Canal.  That dramatic schedule change was announced a few days ago and this ship is next supposed to be close to the port near Luxor before unloading all of the passengers in the southern part of Jordan.  Appreciate your great question and follow-up.  What's next is the key, mega-million-dollar question??

 

My guess and speculation are that nobody at Silversea and Royal Caribbean really knows for certain.  Right or wrong?   Go down the Red Sea and sailing around rebel-infested portions of Yemen without passengers and most of the crew removed?  Or, cancel more scheduled Silver Moon cruises and take the 20+ day routing down and around the southern part of Africa in order to arrive in India by February 11?  

 

Why?  Maybe "all hell has broken loose" in this southern part of the Red Sea??

 

From the New York Times this morning, they had this headline: “Houthis Vow to Respond After U.S. Leads Strikes in Yemen" with this sub-headline:  "The Iranian-backed militia and its allies condemned air and naval attacks led by the United States, an expansion of the conflict in the Middle East. President Biden said he “will not hesitate” to act further if the Houthis continue targeting Red Sea shipping.”

 

Here are some of their reporting highlights: “Iranian-backed Houthi forces and their allies on Friday condemned American-led military strikes in Yemen and vowed to respond, as the Middle East went on alert for retaliatory attacks that could expand the conflict in the region.  After the United States and others launched air and naval strikes against more than a dozen targets linked to the Houthi militia, even some American allies in the Arab world worried that the attacks would not deter the Houthis, but could further inflame a region seething over Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza. Oman, a U.S. ally that has mediated talks with the Houthis, criticized the strikes and expressed its 'deep concern.' ”

 

Having raised these question since mid-October, this has been frustrating to watch and wonder.  Anyone have the answers?  Or, better guesses?

 

Full story at:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/11/world/israel-hamas-houthi-yemen-news

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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[spinnaker2]

IMO, dangerous, very dangerous to sail thru the Red Sea at the moment. 

[TLCOhio]

1 hour ago, spinnaker2 said:

IMO, dangerous, very dangerous to sail thru the Red Sea at the moment. 

 

   8 minutes ago,  gypsyjennifer1 said: 

🙏 I spoke to Captain on the dock yesterday n he said he does not know where ship will go after Aqaba. Doing long excursion to Giza today. 

 

Totally agree with the smart and savvy Spins as to that part of the world being an area to avoid. PLUS, how would the insurance cover the risk for Silversea in trying to navigate down that route?  

 

Excellent that gypsyjennifer1 chatted with the Captain yesterday.  As shown above, even he does not know because Silversea is still trying to untangle this very complicate and total mess.  The conditions in and around Yemen, plus uncertainty about sailing close to Iran on the way to Dubai are hyper-challenged.  

 

From the Wall Street Journal minutes ago early this afternoon, here was their headline: "U.S.-Led Yemen Strikes Heighten Risk of Broader Middle East Conflict" with this sub-headline:  "Iran-backed Houthi rebels warn they will retaliate, pledge to continue attacks on shipping."   

 

Full story at: 

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-led-yemen-strikes-heighten-risk-of-broader-middle-east-conflict-aedb0006?mod=hp_lead_pos4

 

THANKS!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

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[TLCOhio]

This graphic from the NY Times this afternoon below gives a better picture for how much of Yemen that these Houthis rebels control and where the US/UK military strikes were aimed.  

 

This is not a small effort by a handful of tag-tag rebels in small boats firing guns and throwing rocks.  It's serious and becoming more of a troubled situation at the most-risky level.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01/11/world/israel-hamas-houthi-yemen-news

 

[TLCOhio]

From the London/UK Telegraph and MSN News this afternoon, they had this headline: “What the Red Sea attacks could mean for cruise holidays” with these highlights: “As the conflict with Iran-backed Houthi rebels escalates in Yemen and the Red Sea, cruise passengers face possible changes to their holiday itineraries in the coming months. Silversea’s Silver Moon is on the last few days of a 10-night cruise that should have been from Aqaba in Jordan to Muscat in Oman. Instead, it has been changed to a round-trip Aqaba cruise, still 10 nights and still ending on January 16, while the following sailing, from Muscat to Dubai, has been cancelled.  Peter Shanks, Silversea’s managing director UK and Ireland, said the company is rearranging flights for guests on the altered cruise. They are also each receiving US$500 cruise credit and 50 per cent off a future cruise. 'Our guests have been very understanding,' he added.”

 

Also of interest, this reporting noted:  "Now the spotlight falls on cruise lines like P&O Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line and Azamara, which each have ships on world cruises that are due to transit Suez in March or April as the vessels return to the Mediterranean."

 

Full story at:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/what-the-red-sea-attacks-could-mean-for-cruise-holidays/ar-AA1mSBec

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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[wyocruiser]

Thank you for the info, TLCOhio! I’m sure these organizations will know before we do what Silversea plans to do this month.

[TLCOhio]

4 minutes ago, wyocruiser said:

Thank you for the info, TLCOhio! I’m sure these organizations will know before we do what Silversea plans to do this month.

 

For wyocruiser, let's hope Silversea improves its decision and communications timings.  

 

From that UK Telegraph article posted previously, I neglected to including this key quote from the SS official: "Shanks said guests on Silver Moon’s cancelled cruise can opt for a full refund or move to another 2024 cruise. 'We are always very reasonable and believe in compensating guests when things don’t go as they hoped,' he said."

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

[cruising kirby]

I can add Seabourn to the list of cruise lines that are due to cruise through the Red Sea on its Singapore - Dubai - Athens cruise in March/April 2024

 

I know this must be a time of great concern to all cruise lines. What I can’t understand is why they don’t make the very tough (financial) decisions now and re-route their ships so that all of us who are booked can make our plans. Surely their responsibility to keep guests and crew safe overrides anything else?
 

The longer they wait the more we will speculate and try to find answers through communities like this, which only adds to the stress of the unknown. I think it is human nature to try and make sense of ambiguity and all of us are probably trying to weigh up the various possibilities as each day passes. 

[wyocruiser]

I don’t know if this is accurate, but this just came up on Cruisemapper:

 

Silver Moon current location is at Red Sea (coordinates 29.42591 N / 32.64104 E) cruising en route to Suez Canal. The AIS position was reported 17 minutes ago.

[TLCOhio]

34 minutes ago, wyocruiser said:

I don’t know if this is accurate, but this just came up on Cruisemapper:   Silver Moon current location is at Red Sea (coordinates 29.42591 N / 32.64104 E) cruising en route to Suez Canal. The AIS position was reported 17 minutes ago.

 

Yes, from www.cruisemapper.com this is strange.  Here is what I just saw and captured in a screen shot.  Is the Silver Moon going to sail up the Suez Canal?  Hopefully, we can learn more from those currently on the Silver Moon.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio   

 

[Skyhigh]

Yes, now going directly to Athens to disembark on the 16th. Waiting for clearance to go through the Suez right now. 

[Charli001]

Love the updates. Does anyone know where the Moon is going after Athens? I’m supposed to embark on the 26 Jan in Dubai to Mumbai, if the Moon isn’t going to Dubai I wish SS would notify future passengers in order to make other arrangements.

[Notts1964]

5 minutes ago, Charli001 said:

Love the updates. Does anyone know where the Moon is going after Athens? I’m supposed to embark on the 26 Jan in Dubai to Mumbai, if the Moon isn’t going to Dubai I wish SS would notify future passengers in order to make other arrangements.

The cruise from 16th to 26th has already been cancelled, and so the question is - can the Silver Moon sail around Africa from Athens to Dubai in 10 days?

I don’t know the answer, and it may be way out, but I know UK news agencies have been saying that UK cargo ships are adding 9-10 days to their journey by having to go around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal.

We’re due to start our Doha to Mumbai cruise on 2.2 so if it doesn’t manage Dubai in time I wonder if everyone could embark in Doha.

[drron29]

27 minutes ago, Notts1964 said:

The cruise from 16th to 26th has already been cancelled, and so the question is - can the Silver Moon sail around Africa from Athens to Dubai in 10 days?

I don’t know the answer, and it may be way out, but I know UK news agencies have been saying that UK cargo ships are adding 9-10 days to their journey by having to go around Africa rather than through the Suez Canal.

We’re due to start our Doha to Mumbai cruise on 2.2 so if it doesn’t manage Dubai in time I wonder if everyone could embark in Doha.

The answer is no.

Did a rough measurement of nautical miles from Piraeus port to Dubai or Mumbai and it is 11919Nm to Dubai and 11585 to Mumbai.

From the Fincantieri website the Silver moon has a cruising speed of 17 Knots and max speed 21 knots. So using 17 knots 24 hours a day it would take her 29 days to reach Dubai or 28.5 to reach Mumbai.

 

Now my measurements of distance were very rough but lets assume it is only 10000 Nm then at 17 knots it would take 24.5 days via the Cape. And that is not allowing for refueling,supplies, fresh water etc. So earliest that would make it's arrival at Dubai the 9th of February and the 8th for Mumbai.

 

I doubt it would cruise at 20knots all the way but that would still make it 21 days so the 6th feb for Dubai.

 

So extremely likely that first cruise would be Mumbai to Singapore.

[CardowMD]

Cruise lines might need to start avoiding Doha, Dubai and other ports in Persian gulf. 

[BuenaVista1]

It seems that certain people on CC enjoy to create uncertainty and anxiety amongst (future) passengers. Please discontinue to do this as you are not fully informed about the actual/future situation and not in charge of decision-making. We trust that cruise companies are monitoring the developments in the Middle East and that they will make conscious and wise decisions. 

[mancunian]

1 hour ago, BuenaVista1 said:

It seems that certain people on CC enjoy to create uncertainty and anxiety amongst (future) passengers. Please discontinue to do this as you are not fully informed about the actual/future situation and not in charge of decision-making. We trust that cruise companies are monitoring the developments in the Middle East and that they will make conscious and wise decisions. 

I agree with you.

There are some on here who seem to be really enjoying the whole thing. 

[Marylebone37]

Well Drron, I for one appreciate your analysis and rough calculations on what might/might not be possible. Terry, your updates are also very much appreciated.  I have a Regent cruise in that area in March/April, so very interested in what Silversea is doing.  I truly appreciate all the anxiety that Moon guests are currently feeling.  My uneasiness is already beginning to build.  But it’s forums like this one that are so important for us to stay updated, exchange ideas — and hopefully reduce the stress just a little by having a more complete understanding of the situation on board.  

[TLCOhio]

5 hours ago, drron29 said:

Did a rough measurement of nautical miles from Piraeus port to Dubai or Mumbai and it is 11919Nm to Dubai and 11585 to Mumbai.   From the Fincantieri website the Silver moon has a cruising speed of 17 Knots and max speed 21 knots. So using 17 knots 24 hours a day it would take her 29 days to reach Dubai or 28.5 to reach Mumbai.  Now my measurements of distance were very rough but let's assume it is only 10000 Nm then at 17 knots it would take 24.5 days via the Cape. And that is not allowing for refueling,supplies, fresh water etc. So earliest that would make its arrival at Dubai the 9th of February and the 8th for Mumbai.   I doubt it would cruise at 20knots all the way but that would still make it 21 days so the 6th feb for Dubai.   So extremely likely that first cruise would be Mumbai to Singapore.

 

Appreciate the follow-up from Skyhigh saying: "Yes, now going directly to Athens to disembark on the 16th. Waiting for clearance to go through the Suez right now."   As I recall our Texas friend is now on the Silver Moon and has been so informed by the staff on the ship about the Silver Moon heading to Athens where a wider range of airline flights will be available for the passengers and certain crew members who are disembarking.    

 

Dr. Ron above did an excellent job to calculate the distances and speeds for the Silver Moon to hear west in Med and then go south along Africa's western coast, circle South Africa and heard to either Dubai.  

 

A number of weeks back I speculated as this option.  My rough calculations back then and posted on this thread figured it to take about 26 days of straight sailing to reach Mumbai in time for our Feb. 11 boarding in India as we sail for our scheduled 18-day cruise to Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia and finally for Singapore.  

 

In response to BuenaVista1, I think Silversea has not exactly been as clear, timely and upfront in sharing what they knew as to the uncertainties with these various schedules and serious challenges.  To be totally honest and fair, however, these are highly unusual times and situations. Silversea and other cruise lines are facing extremely and highly unique difficulty in guessing and predicting what happens next.  Current news reports reflect a second night of bombing by the US and UK against the Yemen rebels.  This "situation" in the Middle East is far from over and done.  It might be just starting and getting much worse.  FAST!  Hope not, but reality is happening right now  

 

Hopefully those now on the Silver Moon will continue to be sharing more background as they are updated by the Captain.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

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