NCL stock...actually (NCLH)...tanking today.

[PartyPlannerLady]

5 hours ago, Yesimapirate said:

It actually means they made LESS than expected.   They just spent less than expected. I guess not enough Haven passengers order extra lobster tails???

 

You can only cut so much.  Future profitability is based on revenue.   I wonder what new fees there will be "for your convenience ".

No they made more.  You do not knwo how to read financials is all. Also ALL profitability is base on revenue (and expenses).

[PartyPlannerLady]

6 hours ago, Yesimapirate said:

It actually means they made LESS than expected.   They just spent less than expected. I guess not enough Haven passengers order extra lobster tails???

 

You can only cut so much.  Future profitability is based on revenue.   I wonder what new fees there will be "for your convenience ".

No they made MORE than expected.  What they made is measured by EPS.  Their total REVENUE was lower but that is only half of the equation as to what they made.  Many who have an ignorance on how to read and interpret financial statements make the same mistake.  Bottom line is MUCH more important than top line.  A company can generate all the revenue in teh world and still not make money.

[PartyPlannerLady]

3 hours ago, luv2kroooz said:

I didn't read the report. My simple mind is wondering how could they miss revenue in a period of record demand, with record bookings at substantially higher fares? Did they just overestimate their results?

Because they do not control what the

'experts' project as far as revenue goes.  Revenue projects are just that, projections (a different way of saying guesses).  Besdies revenue is not anywhere nera as important as bottom line profit and EPS.  Looking only at revenue to make investment decisions is foolish.

[luv2kroooz]

Just now, PartyPlannerLady said:

Because they do not control what the

'experts' project as far as revenue goes.  Revenue projects are just that, projections (a different way of saying guesses).  Besdies revenue is not anywhere nera as important as bottom line profit and EPS.  Looking only at revenue to make investment decisions is foolish.

Ouch.

[Yesimapirate]

13 minutes ago, PartyPlannerLady said:

No they made MORE than expected.  What they made is measured by EPS.  Their total REVENUE was lower but that is only half of the equation as to what they made.  Many who have an ignorance on how to read and interpret financial statements make the same mistake.  Bottom line is MUCH more important than top line.  A company can generate all the revenue in teh world and still not make money.

You're right.  Making TOO MUCH money explains why there was a sell off.

 

Revenue is down, future revenue is down.   The EPS was because costs were cut more than expected.   You cannot continue to cut costs forever. 

[PartyPlannerLady]

8 minutes ago, Yesimapirate said:

You're right.  Making TOO MUCH money explains why there was a sell off.

 

Revenue is down, future revenue is down.   The EPS was because costs were cut more than expected.   You cannot continue to cut costs forever. 

 

I neither said nor implied that.  Sorry if you inferred it from my post.  EPS is always a combination of revenue and expenses.  FUTURE revenue is neitehr up nor down at this point.  It has not yet been generated.  All that aside, investments in a stock is not a one-day event and one has not made or lost anything until he sells off his investment in said stock.

[mking8288]

3 hours ago, Buford T Justiice said:

I thought it was MKing8288's review of lunch and dinner service on the Prima T/A that was sinking the NCL stock today

LOL 😸 we own 201 shares of NCLH purely for OBC over the last 2 decades with its ups & downs. 

 

95% onboard has no clues what is CC and the ones on the other platform are just as clueless with the live reviews.  I don't color my comments but do try to make it fun while going with the flow. Funny thing is that 4 of us got seated within 5 minutes of showing up in the smaller MDR tonight. 

 

Watch out, going to Cagney's tomorrow  night with a reservation for 4. But, if my words can move the stock, wow - imagine 

 

Anyway, carry on and better leave those OBC alone for all the minority shareholders holding 100 shares each.  Full disclosure: also own CCL stocks too but the next cruise coming up later this year is RCL. 

[phillygwm]

7 hours ago, 9tee2Sea said:

i did not purchase NCLH to make money, I just purchased it for the OBC.  I dont care what the stock is worth once Im dead.

Exactly.  NCLH comprises a tiny portion of my portfolio.  It's still highly speculative because of debt levels but I'm not super concerned if it goes up or down by a couple bucks here or there.  I'll hold for the long term...and take the OBC in the meantime.

Edited May 2 by phillygwm

[Panhandle Couple]

3 hours ago, mistertomatoe said:

 

I believe that's because some cabins have 3rd or 4th guests. Other cruise lines report over 100% of what I assume is the same metric. Of course you don't want it to be too high since it indicates you might be able to get more profit by raising prices.

You missed the whole point of including the quote.

[Panhandle Couple]

3 hours ago, Yesimapirate said:

You're right.  Making TOO MUCH money explains why there was a sell off.

 

Revenue is down, future revenue is down.   The EPS was because costs were cut more than expected.   You cannot continue to cut costs forever. 

And at some point, some people argue just to argue.

 

Revenue is UP, just not as much as some "experts" projected.  The experts use simple formulas, since they have no real insight into future revenue like the company does.  So an expected 3.1% increase is a miss IF the increase is only 2.8%.  The 2.8% is still an Increase.

NCL projects that future 2024 revenue will still increase.  Do you have ANY justification to say that it will go down?

 

Costs have many subcomponents.  Fuel alone can drive them up or down.  Same with food.  NCL hedges their fuel costs with future contracts.  It is all explained in their reports.  Personnel and things like depreciation are much more predictable.  

 

Looking at the reports closer, NCL did 4 things:

They reduced long term debt (as planned) by $400 M, retiring their highest interest loan.

They increased cash on hand by about $100 M, preparing for 2nd qtr debt payment due in May.

They increased future bookings and cash deposits. 

They maintained a fill rate of over 105%, even with a traditional slow month of February.

 

None of these points to company that is in trouble.

 

As stated earlier, Wednesday was the IPO for Viking cruises, and fund managers (and general public) like to speculate on new stocks. To do this they sell other stocks, like NCL on the same day.  Lets see where each are a week from now.

[Distinctive-Destinations]

All this yammering over a one day fluctuation for what amounts to under 2 grand of stock (100 shares) for most of the people on here?

 

Put your money in an index fund if this type of single day action causes this much concern.

[mistertomatoe]

I don’t think many people will admit to having more than a few hundred shares. Not with nclh. I can see why but I’ll keep sailing as long as I know what to expect and don’t overpay.

[luv2kroooz]

5 hours ago, mistertomatoe said:

I don’t think many people will admit to having more than a few hundred shares. Not with nclh. I can see why but I’ll keep sailing as long as I know what to expect and don’t overpay.

That is the key. Find a fair price for what they offer, and realigning expectations for the now expected itinerary disruptions. 

 

We are diversified in multiple cruise companies. Unfortunately, we didn't buy enough RCL coming out of Corona time. Their return on investments have significantly outpaced Norwegian and Carnival. It isn't even close.

[PartyPlannerLady]

13 hours ago, Distinctive-Destinations said:

All this yammering over a one day fluctuation for what amounts to under 2 grand of stock (100 shares) for most of the people on here?

 

Put your money in an index fund if this type of single day action causes this much concern.

 

Well at least someoen understands the stock market!  The only two prices that matter for any given stock are the price when you buy and the price when you sell.

[PartyPlannerLady]

15 hours ago, Panhandle Couple said:

And at some point, some people argue just to argue.

 

Revenue is UP, just not as much as some "experts" projected.  The experts use simple formulas, since they have no real insight into future revenue like the company does.  So an expected 3.1% increase is a miss IF the increase is only 2.8%.  The 2.8% is still an Increase.

NCL projects that future 2024 revenue will still increase.  Do you have ANY justification to say that it will go down?

 

Costs have many subcomponents.  Fuel alone can drive them up or down.  Same with food.  NCL hedges their fuel costs with future contracts.  It is all explained in their reports.  Personnel and things like depreciation are much more predictable.  

 

Looking at the reports closer, NCL did 4 things:

They reduced long term debt (as planned) by $400 M, retiring their highest interest loan.

They increased cash on hand by about $100 M, preparing for 2nd qtr debt payment due in May.

They increased future bookings and cash deposits. 

They maintained a fill rate of over 105%, even with a traditional slow month of February.

 

None of these points to company that is in trouble.

 

As stated earlier, Wednesday was the IPO for Viking cruises, and fund managers (and general public) like to speculate on new stocks. To do this they sell other stocks, like NCL on the same day.  Lets see where each are a week from now.

 

Great post.  Now try explaining fixed and variable cost to everyone and the implications of each.  I bet very few will get it or will argue about it.  🙂

[Sugar67]

On 5/1/2024 at 1:32 PM, Ellis1138 said:

When I saw the 2020 crash, I grabbed 100 of NCLH at 10 and 100 of CCL at 7. Not for pure investment purposes, but I knew I would be going on cruises, post-pandemic, and I had faith the industry would make it. I could not also afford to get 100 of Royal, which was 24 at the time. 

 

 

We did the exact same thing.  When we are no longer able to cruise, we will sell them off.

[Baron Barracuda]

NCLH had a good quarter.  Problem is it came on the heels of RCL reporting an even stronger one.  RCL had a 107% load factor vs NCLH's 105%.  RCL also had better cash flow, paying down a bunch of debt and refinancing another $1B from 11% to 6%.  Street bid up NCLH expecting similar results and were disappointed when they didn't match.  Covid put them in a deep hole and it's going to take a while to recover.

[PhillyTravelBug]

On 5/2/2024 at 4:00 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

NCLH had a good quarter.  Problem is it came on the heels of RCL reporting an even stronger one.  RCL had a 107% load factor vs NCLH's 105%.  RCL also had better cash flow, paying down a bunch of debt and refinancing another $1B from 11% to 6%.  Street bid up NCLH expecting similar results and were disappointed when they didn't match.  Covid put them in a deep hole and it's going to take a while to recover.

 

I'm pretty loyal to NCL, but put my investment in RCL and some in VIK this week.  I am wondering how much higher RCL can go, but their outlook for the next year seems to be optimistic with another ship and Celebrity coming out with Xcel.

[BrianLo]

NCLH had their investors day today.

 

Highlights or low-lights;

-Drifting more itineraries towards Caribbean.

-Moving towards shorter itineraries

-Moving towards more consistent repetition of itineraries for a given ship

-Focusing on more things to upsell above product above all

-Ongoing drifting to more higher end cabins in percentage mix

-Focusing more on their private islands, more itineraries to include

-Moving towards larger, more efficient ships (we kind of already knew this, but spelled out as a strategy).

-Cost containment, as always

-CruiseFirst seems permanent. Which is a bit odd as I find it somewhat of a redundant program to CruiseNext, there is no real actual benefit to CruiseNext really (other than they hawk it). I'm not complaining, CruiseFirst is more consumer friendly.

 

 

All things good for the stock and that have worked well for RCL. Many things I'm not personally that enthralled with, that RCL does.

[Panhandle Couple]

8 minutes ago, BrianLo said:

NCLH had their investors day today.

 

Highlights or low-lights;

-Drifting more itineraries towards Caribbean.

-Moving towards shorter itineraries

-Moving towards more consistent repetition of itineraries for a given ship

-Focusing on more things to upsell above product above all

-Ongoing drifting to more higher end cabins in percentage mix

-Focusing more on their private islands, more itineraries to include

-Moving towards larger, more efficient ships (we kind of already knew this, but spelled out as a strategy).

-Cost containment, as always

-CruiseFirst seems permanent. Which is a bit odd as I find it somewhat of a redundant program to CruiseNext, there is no real actual benefit to CruiseNext really (other than they hawk it). I'm not complaining, CruiseFirst is more consumer friendly.

 

 

All things good for the stock and that have worked well for RCL. Many things I'm not personally that enthralled with, that RCL does.

Stock jumped over 7% today. 

[JustAPilot]

That’s to bad, NCL had some great itineraries especially in Europe. More tourists trap sailings to Costa Maya and what ever that Dominican stop is and sitting with thousands of others in a lazy river is not my forte. 

[BrianLo]

4 minutes ago, JustAPilot said:

That’s to bad, NCL had some great itineraries especially in Europe. More tourists trap sailings to Costa Maya and what ever that Dominican stop is and sitting with thousands of others in a lazy river is not my forte. 

 

For the moment, it doesn't look like they are reducing the variety, but diluting.

 

All new product through 2026 are being added to the Caribbean market. Rather than seemingly them shifting ships back. The Caribbean market inherently has shorter cruises so I think that also reduced their lengths of cruises fleet wise by dilution.

Edited Monday at 06:28 PM by BrianLo

[BrianLo]

15 minutes ago, Panhandle Couple said:

Stock jumped over 7% today. 

 

Ya, very good stuff for the stock. Ho-hum for NCL as a brand differentiator. I felt like NCL was somewhat heading upstream to Celebrity, but now seems to be swimming back downstream where the oodles of money is.

[mistertomatoe]

Yup, up 7% but still down 8% from a month ago.

 

Okay but I see no difference in the experience onboard for the better. What's good for the shareholder isn't always good for the cruiser. Shareholders and cruisers should be pricing the stock and holiday accordingly. Do not over pay!

[BrianLo]

Another small tidbit. Non-newbuild Capex is increasing 40% in 2025/26 over 2024 (which they qualify as both maintenance and investment).

 

I think 2024 is fairly "normal" or even a bit elevated for just straight dry-dock time, since it was so deferred for a lot of the fleet. This suggests to me we might see some of the enhancement programs start to return.

 

I guess Joy sort of had spending as well this year; it seems like a lot more should be coming down the pipeline.