chances of getting good airfare 3 months out?

I don't really want to book our flights for an AUS/NZ cruise until about 3 months ahead of time. One reason is lots of things not covered by regular travel insurance could cause a change in plans. Also, if I see a more desirable cruise price or a drop on a more desirable itinerary, we might need to switch dates a bit. (unfortunately, most of the last min rates come out after final payment is due, but on occasion it's possible to get lucky. So my question is mainly to those who DID NOT buy their flight a year or at least 6 months out. Did you find the prices bounced up and down ( as usual) or just go steadily up? Seems to me that I've seen some really good prices before for dates which are often within the next few weeks. There is no sure thing. But what's a good guess? (I do watch fares but am not ready to pull the trigger yet.)

Thanks for any helpful tips and replies.

I don't really want to book our flights for an AUS/NZ cruise until about 3 months ahead of time. One reason is lots of things not covered by regular travel insurance could cause a change in plans. Also, if I see a more desirable cruise price or a drop on a more desirable itinerary, we might need to switch dates a bit. (unfortunately, most of the last min rates come out after final payment is due, but on occasion it's possible to get lucky. So my question is mainly to those who DID NOT buy their flight a year or at least 6 months out. Did you find the prices bounced up and down ( as usual) or just go steadily up? Seems to me that I've seen some really good prices before for dates which are often within the next few weeks. There is no sure thing. But what's a good guess? (I do watch fares but am not ready to pull the trigger yet.)

 

Thanks for any helpful tips and replies.

As a rule the closer to the date your cruising . The more expensive the airfare . Most tickets are cheaper at 9 to 6 months than at 3. You can buy insurance to cover just the airfare . Many airlines allow changes for a fee plus the difference in air fare.

I think airfare watchdog (or was it Conde Nast?) reported buying 6 months out is a good rule of thumb. The problem with the flight ins is that it only covers you for particular reasons- not just because you changed your mind. At least not unless you pay through the nose for the cancel for any reason coverage. The cost of that is exorbitant. It's not uncommon for a change fee to run $300 pp these days. Guess it all depends upon your financial bracket but that's too much of a waste for our wallets. I think no matter why you are flying, the closer you get to the date, the higher the fare. UNLESS the planes are not booked as heavily as the airline would like. Or unless there is a fare war. I once reserved an Australian cruise planning to use chg card points for the plane tickets. A $ value was placed on the points. I went to book the fares online and found the cost was running $1,300 per ticket, though this was about 9 yrs ago! The chg card T/A said they only allowed $899 for flats to AUS. So I cancelled the cruise 3 wks later as prices stayed high. Instead I booked a trip to Brazil - one of the best trips ever as it turned out! However, about 2 wks after getting those tickets, the flights to AUS went down to -guess what: $899! So it's always a gamble I guess.

Thanks for posting and i am taking your rep,y under advisement. Others' experience is what I am looking for!

I buy our airfare when I'm comfortable with the price. For some cruises I've gotten good airfare prices from the cruise line for less then from the airline directly.

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My experience is less then 3 months before they get more expensive. Around the three month mark they change daily up and down before steadily going up. The key is to find that really good down price. My rule has always been find airfare then the cruise. It is easier to get a cruise discount then an airfare discount.

The prices I find between 6-9 months before are always better on air because not only are they cheaper, but usually better flight times (nonstops) and connections. That being said twice I bought airfare to Europe for decent prices about 6 weeks out. So the key is to set up price alerts and keep looking.

bearette, that is similar to what my experience often has been. I do set up alerts. In fact, I have too many in my inbox for too many places right now, lol!

If I see something I think is truly good, I may bite. Guess I am not SURE enough about the whole thing yet - ?

kamloops50, you are lucky if you have gotten cheaper fare through the cruiseline. We have cruised 38 or 39 times and that has never been the case. We qualify for free "select air" with our preferred lines but so far have not found cheaper fares. Maybe it's because the best promos on air are for the higher end or at least longer itinerary or one way cruises. When we have cruised out of other countries, usually we go over early and come home late, which often affects the crusieline's rules on airfare. Then, too, sometimes when "free air" or half priced air has been advertised, the cruise fares in effect at the time are higher than they turn out to be a short time before or after the promo. That seems to be more or less true for "2nd person half price" or "2nd person free" sales. But anyway, more power to you if you have gotten deals!

bearette, I can tell you know whereof you speak! I have had similar experience with flights and prices, and do get alerts frequently. Actually, I watch TOO many routes, so my inbox is loaded, lol! If I happened to see a realliy super price, I might bite but ??? I have asked my question on this board because I am not as familiar with flts. to the So. Pacific as I am with flts. to some other parts of the world or domestic flts.

Kamsloop50, I have not had your good luck in finding lower flt. prices through the cruise lines. So many people end up with horrible connections through the cruise lines, too. We qualify for the choice air options on a couple of lines but still don't go that route. I think perhaps there are deals with regard to higher end or long one way cruises but not so many on 7 to 12 day cruises which is our usual length. And sometimes the offers SAY half price or free air, but if you compare these "sales" with the cruise pricing right before or after the "sale", it isn't truly free. (Same goes for those 2nd person free types of cruise sales a lot of times.) But if you have gotten good fares that way, more power to you!

Thanks for your replies!

Hi

We have never purchased airline tickets before final payment and have always found what we think reasonable airfares either from airlines or with cruise lines directly.

We have already booked a NZ cruise for Dec so will not look at buying tickets until end Sept/Oct timeframe. Based on what I saw last year (we cancelled the same cruise last year), the airfare from LAX didn't fluctuate much from 3 months out. That's not to say it will be the same this year. So if we see a "good airfare" after Sept we will pull the trigger immediately.

Why not sail on Oceania where the airfare is built into the cabin price (or you can take a credit).

wen_c82, if your post pertained to flying into FL for a cruise, I'd think I wrote it myself, lol! This is very encouraging info! Thank you for the info!

Flatbush Flyer, the prices I've seen on Oceania cruises are generally a lot pricier than the various cruiseline we've cruised on, including Celebrity. Besides, I guess I'm a pretty bad control freak because I prefer having total control over our flights and we are always adding on extra days, etc. While we likely could work that out easily enough sometimes we fly into a city elsewhere in a country or nearby country, then drive to the port. Or do something along that line on the back end. Not sure what Oceania would do to accommodate us in that case, but I am guessing there might be an additional fee involved. Thanks for the tip, though!

wen_c82, if your post pertained to flying into FL for a cruise, I'd think I wrote it myself, lol! This is very encouraging info! Thank you for the info!

 

 

 

Flatbush Flyer, the prices I've seen on Oceania cruises are generally a lot pricier than the various cruiseline we've cruised on, including Celebrity. Besides, I guess I'm a pretty bad control freak because I prefer having total control over our flights and we are always adding on extra days, etc. While we likely could work that out easily enough sometimes we fly into a city elsewhere in a country or nearby country, then drive to the port. Or do something along that line on the back end. Not sure what Oceania would do to accommodate us in that case, but I am guessing there might be an additional fee involved. Thanks for the tip, though!

Yes O's cabin prices are higher but include airfare and other amenities you pay for on C. Compare the daily cost of your trip based on all expenses (like airfare, specialty restaurants, etc). With the right O partner TA and their added perks (e.g., substantial OBC), you may find that it isn't that much different in daily price than Celebrity.

There's also quality items like the food.

As for the air, we take the O credit (instead of their flights) and use the $ to buy our own preferred carrier and itinerary (upgrading to business with FF points)

Sounds like it's a good deal for you and works to your advantage. We actually are likely going to cruise with RCI this time around, not Celebrity, as the price is a fair amount less than Celebrity's for the itinerary we are looking at. We don't really care about the specialty restaurants and only very rarely go to one. Additionally, one of us doesn't drink alcohol and the other just barely. We also we mostly do our own shore excursions (sometimes with a rental car) rather than going on a ship's excursion. (Sometimes we have found ourselves having to drag around more slowly than we'd like, or "hurry up and wait" for everyone to get organized, etc. When we book something independently it's often just a few of us. I would doubt Oceania has "cattle call" tours, but still. . . I have no doubt you are right about adding up the different costs though. It depends upon one's cruising style somewhat. Wendy Perrin did a comparison on all-inclusive cruises vs. regular ones in Conde Nast magazine a couple yrs. ago. I remember taking issue with some of her article's estimated costs a pay as you go cruiser would have to pay. Her estimates for extras and things were WAY more than what we ever spend! So I totally disagreed with her assessment in OUR particular case. Oceania has a wonderful reputation. Even on Celebrity, sometimes we find the atmosphere a little less "active" than we prefer. It makes me wonder if Oceania would be a good fit for us. But again, it's something that can benefit some cruisers I'm sure.

Usually the price tends to go up from about the three month out mark.

I've read it's a good idea to book by then anyway. Same article 6 mos. is the AVERAGE time people tend to book. But as we all know and most travel advisers will tell you, fares can to absolutely anything (along with the Tue. always being the lowest fares/best time to book myth). So it's always a gamble!

I am currently watching fares from the US west coast to Australia....they have not changed much in the past 3 months and there are still a ton of empty seats on the flights I am watching so I will keep watching..cruise is Nov 2 from Sydney, planning on flying out around Oct 23 to see some more of Australia. The return from Auckland is a different story, Air New Zealand had a sale a month ago and I was able to grab two premium economy seats for about the same cost I am looking at for economy seats on the out bound with UA or Quantas.... it is all supply and demand, it is all crazy so I just keep checking and watching..